2017 PIAA XC State Previews: AA Team Preview

I think the AA team race is going to be absolute madness. I have no confidence in my picks. Usually, I have confidence, it’s just false confidence. I think I’ve nailed it and then I whiff. This year, maybe it will help to be completely unsure. Or maybe, I’ll just have a more embarrassing set of predictions. Here’s to hoping it’s the first one …

10. Holy Redeemer

The District 2 runner-ups are an interesting team. I still feel like they haven’t completely hit their potential and yet they’ve posted strong results at Foundation, Paul Short and Districts. They’ve got a medal contender or two on the roster. They have a deep pack that goes 7 deep. They have run the Hershey hills multiple times and should have a decent feel for it. I think somebody is going to step up. Stevens is running great, but if one more guy (Williams, Capaci, Strish and Volpetti all have had glimpses) steps up and makes this thing a big 3 instead of a big 2, I think these guys could really exceed my prediction.

9. Greensburg Salem

A week after I bailed on Greensburg Salem as a state qualifier, I’m feeling uncertain about where to slot them in this state field. On the one hand, this is a young team with most of their youth coming at that critical 4-5 spot. On the other, they just showed they can step up and deliver on the big stage at Coopers. That 4-5 should be less of a weakness in a Hershey field that will put more emphasis on front running. That’s’ where this team has to step up. I thought their big three were good at Coopers (clearly, they all finished in the top 10), but it’s a testament to their talent that I think there’s actually more there to give. I think Brown and/or Binda can be a top 10 guy. Dylan Binda could be anywhere from 20^th to 60^th and I wouldn’t blink. Maybe this Greensburg Salem squad is a version of Harbor Creek last year that had three state medalists that carried them to a 4^th place result.

8. Notre Dame

This may be an ambitious pick, but I’m all in on the District 11 champions. They were a sneaky good 9^th place last year and they return much of that core. Koons is a star and Seamus Hammerston has emerged as an elite #2. He’s going to be the biggest wildcard for this squad as basically everybody in AA has 1 or 2 or 3 elite dudes. I like the way Notre Dame traversed the hills a year ago and I like their pack. The test will be out front and how well they can stack up.

7. New Castle

I feel like New Castle belongs in the A race. Why? Because they will be leaning on freshmen for key results in their top 5, not unlike many of the top teams in A. Those freshmen were very clutch at WPIALs where Jonah Miller (17^th) and Zac Gibson (26^th) nearly helped New Castle win a WPIAL title. Those two freshmen along with sophomore Anthony Litrenta make up a talented young core that could go etiehr way on these Hershey hills. But the most important two guys for me personally are seniors. LeShawn Huff will need to be in the state medals for this team to break into the top 5 and maybe even this top 7. Meanwhile, George Eggleston has the ability to step up and run with Litrenta and Miller. That could be a huge insurance piece for a deep New Castle squad trying to make a name for themselves in Hershey.

6. Indiana Area

Well, here we are. At #6 (yes, #6) is my first team that I think has a very realistic shot at a state championship. I thought it was crazy to have 5 in A, but here we are in AA with 6! In my opinion, Indiana is a long shot, but they’ve got a shot. Kendall Branan has emerged as a star after his second place finish at the WPIAL championships. The sophomore is not afraid to go for it, typically pushing early at a fast pace. I’d expect the AA race to be fast from the gun which may play to Branan’s advantage (or exploit his aggressive nature if he goes out over his head). What Branan will need behind him for Indiana to make the podium is a complete top 5. Julian Yerger should be a bigger factor in the team race this weekend than he was at WPIALs and Joey Bujdos will need to be sniffing around the top 30 individuals as well.

5. Grove City

On the right day, Grove City is AA’s most complete top 5. We saw this team topple traditional power and Foundation champ York Suburban at Carlisle with a tight pack behind their superstar front runner Jonah Powell. Despite their stint as the #1 ranked team in AA, Grove City ended up 2^nd at their district championship as Harbor Creek exploited their lack of a #2. I think Powell will have a bounce back day and finish in the top 5 at states, but if Grove City wants to really make a run in this race, he needs a running mate in the top 25. If that happens, maybe that pulls the whole pack into the top 50 and they steal the title. Since the move to three classifications, Grove City has been a consistent top 5 team in AA, but they are still searching for that elusive title.

4. Harbor Creek

This is by far the most interesting team in the state. I was expecting Harbor Creek to contend this year. They returned three state medalists and most of the core from a 4^th place team in the state. However, Harbor Creek was successful last year despite a big gap between their 4 and 5. This season, they look much more complete. Nate Dougan came up huge at districts, placing 9^th overall in a strong District 10 field. I did not see that one coming. Dougan filled the space vacated by last year’s graduated #4. Then HC had the 20^th and 21^st place finishers in Caleb Mandel and Nolan Weber. Assuming Dougan can duplicate his district race, Harbor Creek just needs a solid day-not even an outlier, just a solid day-out of Mandel or Weber. I gave this team a hard look as I think they could definitely be state champs, but ultimately I trusted the other programs and the other #5s a tiny bit more.

3. Wyomissing

In my first draft of these predictions, I had Wyomissing winning the state championship. They beat Dallas at Paul Short and they beat York Suburban at districts so clearly there’s a reason I had them in the pole position. That top 3 is legit with Joe Cullen, Ben Kuhn and Matt Driben all medal threats. Most of their core got some valuable state experience out at Hershey a year ago, including potential scorers Diehl, Foster and Vargo. There’s a lot to like here. However, I ultimately just had a hard time putting this squad ahead of Dallas and York Suburban. Those programs have done so much over the past few seasons, I feel like it should come down to the two of them on the podium one more time. The name that will swing this one, in my opinion, is Matt Driben. He ran states back in 2014 as a frosh and was the #4 man on a 7^th place team in the state, but there was a gap before he returned to XC relevance this season. Now, he’s a star with big upside. If he’s in the medals, it’s going to be near impossible to defeat Wyomissing.

2. Dallas

In 2014, a team that included 4 freshmen and a sophomore in the top 5 survived a grueling test from defending state champs Tunkhannock and qualified for states. You would think a team of youngsters, surprising their way to states would just be happy to be there. That they would not be able to handle the spotlight. But the young Dallas team rallied to 8^th place in the state. From that moment, you knew there was something special about this group.

The four freshmen from that year’s team, Jack Zardecki, Josh Wyandt, Adam Borton and Josh Jarden, are now seniors. Seniors with two state championship golds. Seniors hoping to add one more before they leave. In all likelihood, these four guys will be four of the five scorers at states, alongside sub 16 man Mitchell Rome. They will need to all bring their “A” game if this squad is going to pull off the three peat. However, it’s worth noting that the sophomore from that 2014 squad, Jason Culp, was a key part of the 2015 and 2016 state championships. He really brought the top 5 together with a consistent presence in the middle of a strong pack. Josh Jarden will have to step into that Culp role if Dallas wants to keep the clamps on the trophy. Jarden is the big x-factor on race day.

I originally had Dallas third on my rankings (and almost had them even lower than that), but ultimately have too much respect for this program to doubt them. You don’t get to be back to back state champions without being able to handle some adversity. Zardecki will be a factor at the front, Wyandt and Rome are hungry for their first individual medals and Borton typically runs clutch at states. Jarden has been right on Borton’s heels the past two weeks so hopefully he can follow him through to bring home the title.

1. York Suburban

In 2014, while this young Dallas team was gaining their confidence, York Suburban was taking the state title. They were the squad set up to be a dynasty as they entered the 2015 state meet as title favorites. But Dallas knocked them off by just 8 points and stole the title. A year later, with vengeance on their mind, York Suburban threw arguably their best performance from the three years on the table and still ended up with silver.

Now, just one man from that ‘14 state championship team, Bryce Ohl, remains on the squad. He’s battled with Dallas for the past two seasons and knows how menacing this opponent can be. Ohl was the lone medalist for York Suburban in 2016. They will need at least one more guy with bling around his neck if they are going to make my prediction come true and steal the state crown back from Dallas. Raudenski can be that guy (and I’m not just saying that because his name is Jarrett) but he needs to click as a junior the same way Ohl did last year. A real wildcard to watch? Jordan Ohl, a sophomore who I think may be sitting on a breakthrough.

I may be thinking of this too poetically. As you can tell from my individual predictions, the odds are stacked against York Suburban. Most other contenders have more firepower out front and the packs from these other top squads can hold their own. But it feels to me like YS needs to win to close off this four year chapter AA. I guess I’m just a hopeless romantic.