2017 PIAA XC District Previews: District 4

District 4 (10/26)

A (1 Team, 5 Individuals)

1. Mount Caramel

2. Southern Columbia

3. NE Bradford

1	Ethan Knoebel	Jr	Southern Columbia
2	Alex Patton	So	Wyalusing valley
3	Aidan Perry	Jr	Wellsboro
4	Kevin Heeman	Jr	Wyalusing Valley
5	Tyler Adams	Sr	Mount Caramel
6	Zak Smith	Jr	NE Bradford
7	Tayge Molino	Jr	South Williamsport
8	Ethan Laudenslager	So	South Williamsport
9	Krystof Lapotsky	So	Mount Caramel
10	Derek Lawler	Fr	Mount Caramel
11	Connor Brought	Sr	Wellsboro
12	Jacob Petro	Jr	Southern Columbia
13	Nate Mosier	Sr	NE Bradford
14	Destin Moore	Jr	NE Bradford
15	Anthony Moser	Sr	Mount Caramel
16	Logan Newton	So	Wyalusing valley
17	Dale Brown	Jr	NE Bradford
18	Mak Gleckner	Sr	Canton

At the beginning of this year, I suspected there may be a changing of the guard in District 4. After a terrific streak of championships, it seemed NE Bradford was finally beatable as up and coming Southern Columbia loomed to challenge for the throne. However, it’s been Mount Caramel who has stepped up and taken the division by storm. The former AA champs have had a terrific run this year, posting solid spreads at each meet and holding their own in large fields against bigger competition. Caramel doesn’t have jaw dropping front running (which could potentially be there undoing), but they make up for it with a squad that goes 5 deep without a notable weakness.

That being said, NE Bradford likely won’t surrender their throne easily. Zak Smith is one of the top returners from last year’s district meet, ran very well at the 2016 state meet and has led the team in all major races this season. While Bradford hasn’t raced head to head with Mount Caramel yet this season, I’m not sure their pack is ready to topple the pre-race favorites. That being said, Bradford’s historical success makes them hard to ignore come championship time.

Southern Columbia has survived a key missing piece in the early season to remain competitive in District 4. Ethan Knoebel, the team’s star front runner, has been excellent again in 2017. After a fantastic track season, Knoebel has asserted himself as the clear favorite in this district for individual gold. That low stick, combined with a big day from someone like Jacob Petro or Brady Reese, could potentially swing the title race towards Columbia. However, they’ve got an up hill battle after already being bested head to head by Mount Caramel on more than one occasion.

Individually, as mentioned, Knoebel is the favorite. However, I took a good hard look at Alex Patton and Kevin Heeman from Wyalusing Valley. These two non-seniors have had a terrific season, highlighted by 16:20s type runs at McQuaid. Aidan Perry of Wellsboro is another consistent championship performer who has already proven himself despite the fact that he is only now in his junior season.

A year ago, South Williamsport’s Tayge Molino was the first runner out of the state championship picture in District 4. This year he and talented sophomore teammate Ethan Laudenslager will be in position to reverse that fate. With only five spots on the line, it seems unlikely that both of these runners will advance to states. However, either could surprise with a big day and finish top three.

AA (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

1. Loyalsock

2. Warrior Run

3. Danville

4. Milton

5. Lewisburg

1	Isaac Davis	Sr	Jersey Shore
2	Quinn Serfass	Sr	Loyalsock
3	Tyler Leeser	Sr	Milton
4	Ryan Sullivan	Sr	Loyalsock
5	Quenton Long	Sr	Mifflinburg
6	Damien Moser	So	Warrior Run
7	Logan Strouse	Jr	Shikellamy
8	John Maize	So	Danville
9	Kellan Guinn-Bailey	Jr	Milton
10	Alejandro Quintana	So	Loyalsock
11	Calvin Bailey	Fr	Lewisburg
12	Jason Stanko	Sr	Lewisburg
13	Eli Zakarian	So	Danville
14	Tanner Walter	So	Milton
15	Nick Doresky	Sr	Milton
16	Cassidy Hoffman	Sr	Warrior Run
17	Doug Hallman	Jr	Shikellamy
18	James Zola	Jr	Danville
19	Chase Carpenter	Sr	Jersey Shore
20	Bryce Woland	Sr	Warrior Run
21	Reece Loptaka	Jr	Danville
22	Hunter Mummert	Sr	Jersey Shore
23	Cade Dufrene	Fr	Warrior Run
24	Addison Magyar	Jr	Warrior Run

I had no idea what to do with this one. On the one hand, I really like the defending champions from Milton. Despite the fact that they were missing their two top returners from a year ago for the majority of the season, Milton has stayed competitive near the top of District 4 competition. Tanner Walter and Nick Doresky have excelled while Kellan Guinn-Bailey is peaking at the right time. If you paired that trio with the two missing pieces (Sam Kendall and Tyler Leeser) this team would be an easy pick for state gold. However, Kendall has been absent all season and Leeser hasn’t raced since early September. That likely sinks Milton’s chances of a return to states.

Warrior Run has shown the potential to be the #1 team in the district. They were tops against a deep group of D4 squads at Foundation and have a pretty solid pack. Sophomore Damien Moser provides a front running presence and a nice rotation of characters can step up anywhere from #2 to #5. Cassidy Hoffman is one of those wildcards who could help this squad lock up a state qualifier with a clutch day at Bloom. However, I think Loyalsock will ultimately get the best of Warrior Run for a second straight meet. At Shikellamy, Loyalsock pulled away in the standings thanks to their awesome 1-2-3 punch. Serfass and Sullivan are proven forces who likely will be top 5 at districts. The sophomore Alejandro Quintana is a bit more of a wildcard, but has proven himself on multiple occasions this season. I think he may even beat Sullivan on the right day.

The long shot for states is Danville. I know they didn’t look spectacular at their last invite and, quite frankly, there isn’t much on paper that suggests they will be in the mix. However, I see a scenario where their team clicks and they have the best #4 and #5 on race day. John Maize may end up in the top 10 and Eli Zakarian is lurking as a sleeper pick individually. There’s something about this Danville program and their ability to come up clutch at districts that makes me think they will somehow punch a ticket to states and maybe even win a district championship.

Individually, this is a fun battle from top to bottom. At the very top we have Isaac Davis, the season long PA #1 in AA. Davis crushed his competition in the few chances he has had so far this year and looks poised to potentially continue his season past the state championships. However, Davis has some demons to exercise. A year ago at this meet, he nearly missed qualifying for states all together as the conditions allowed Quinn Serfass of Loyalsock to pull off the upset. Serfass returns this year and is the middle of his best XC campaign to date. If Milton’s Tyler Leeser is back and healthy, he deserves in this tier as well. However, that seems more and more like a longshot from what we’ve seen to date.

I really like Quenton Long of Mifflinburg as a sleeper. I think he will have a big day. A little further down the list, I like freshman Calvin Bailey of Lewisburg. That Lewisburg team is another program that just puts it together in the clutch. Bailey’s a real talented kid who might be clicking with his training at the ideal time. The Jersey Shore duo of Chase Carpenter and Hunter Mummert is another pair that will hope to have success. They are borderline state qualifiers who will likely benefit from training with Isaac Davis all season.