2017 PIAA XC State Championship Preview: AA Individual Preview

AA State Championship

Jersey Shore’s Isaac Davis enters the state meet as a clear favorite. Like A favorite Tristan Forsythe, Davis is not only the two time defending champion at Foundation, but also the top returner from last year’s state meet and top sophomore from the 2015 edition of the championships. Davis’s recent success shows his fitness is strong as ever. He’s broken 16 in each of his last two meets, including last week’s district championship. That mark made him the first sub 16 man on the course since two time state champ Griffin Molino of South Williamsport in 2014. Davis also boasts the fastest foundation time of the season, even faster than Neshaminy’s Rusty Kujdych.

Isaac has typically been a front runner, storming out of the gates quickly and pushing the pace through to the finish. At Foundation, he opened up a massive lead at halfway and held that advantage to the finish. At states last fall, he hung tough through the early stages of the race against eventual 1-2 finishers Ben Bumgarner and Zach Skolnekovich, leading through the first mile. That strategy could potentially leave him vulnerable by a pack working together to close the gap. However, it can also pulverize the mental state of his competitors and finish a race before it even starts.

Many runners have had a firsthand look at Davis’s strength, but perhaps none have been quite as firsthand as South Fayette senior Sam Snodgrass. Snodgrass was second to Davis at Foundation. He’s the #2 returner from last year’s state meet. And even before that he was the #2 sophomore at the 2015 championships, right behind Davis. So Snodgrass has been trying to climb out of that shadow for a couple years now. Despite an excellent resume that includes wins at RWB and WPIALs, Snodgrass will have an uphill battle against Davis. The gap at Foundation was 37 seconds which should be tough to overcome. But Sam has good mile speed, a history of peaking right and he even tried a more aggressive start at WPIALs this past week. He could be practicing to hang tough with Davis at states.

A fast start may not be the recipe to knock off Davis, but instead a lasting surge on the back half of the course could get the job done. Someone who knows all about that second half surge is York Suburban senior Bryce Ohl. Bryce was in 55^th position at the mile at states in 2016 before rising all the way up to 8^th place at the finish. At districts this past weekend, Bryce dropped a big last mile to win the race by 23 seconds after being essentially even at 3200. He was almost a minute back of Davis at Foundation, but I’d be stunned if that gap doesn’t shrink down significantly by states.

Ohl’s natural foil is Jack Zardecki of Dallas. The two finished side by side last year at states with Zardecki one spot ahead. Their two teams finished 1-2 as well, Zardecki again having a one spot edge. These two athletes have been front runners on talented, state championship caliber squads each of the past two seasons. They’ve been Top 50 finishers in the state since their freshmen years. And guess what? They are set to be locked in yet another tight team battle in 2017.

That team battle is a bit more crowded this year than it was last. In addition to Dallas and York Suburban, schools like Grove City, Harbor Creek and Wyomissing are coveting gold. Each of those teams has a front runner who I’d expect to be in the mix for a top 3 finish. Jonah Powell of Grove City didn’t have his best finish at districts, but the junior was clearly elite during the regular season with big marks at RWB and Carlisle among others. I think he bounces back in a big way at states. Wyomissing’s Joe Cullen has 1:53/4:13 ability. He lost to Ohl at districts, but should still be in the mix at states. Cullen won a district title last year and grabbed a state medal in Hershey so he’s not just a track guy by any means. Harbor Creek returns three state medalists in Ryan Stravaggi, Aiden Weber and Christian Babo. They didn’t have anyone crack the top 15, but that ought to change this year.

I’m always interested in how teammates running together will have an advantage on the Hershey course. Beyond the Harbor Creek trio, Wyomissing’s Cullen is joined by medal contenders in Ben Kuhn and Matt Driben. Greensburg Salem has a phenomenal top three in Mark Brown, Cameron Binda and Dylan Binda. Bryce Ohl is joined by medal threat Jarrett Raudenski while Zardecki has Mitchell Rome and Josh Wyandt on the roster. But the biggest 1-2 punch of all may be under the roof at General McLane. Nate Price won against a stacked field at the District 10 championships. His teammate, Erik Andrzejewski, was a surprise 18^th at states last fall and knows how to navigate the Hershey hills. Pair those two together and they might steal two top 10 spots.

But still, there’s more names to watch. How about the ultra-talented sophomore from Juniata, Garrett Baublitz? He was a freshman sensation last year, breaking 4:20 in the 1600 and grabbing state hardware. He’s much more seasoned in his second trip to Hershey and proved he could handle the hills at Foundation earlier this year. Anthony Harper of Bonner is another top notch hill runner who was dominant this past week at districts. John Koons of Notre Dame is ascending at the right time. Sophomore Kendall Branan of Indiana was just second at the district seven championships against a slew of stars. He seems like a good sleeper candidate as does his Indiana squad.

Lastly, I should mention one of the few guys in this field who actually boasts a win over Isaac Davis within the past year or so of XC. That is Loyalsock’s Quinn Serfass. He beat Davis as at the 2016 district championships and, although he didn’t topple him this year, he was not too far behind when the clock stopped at Bloomsburg. Serfass is one of the top returners from last year, boasts a nice 3200 PR and has the extra incentive that comes with running for his team (the District 4 champs) on state Saturday. Maybe that helps him surprise for an upset.

Place	Team Place	Name	Class	Team
1		Isaac Davis	Sr	Jersey Shore
2		Sam Snodgrass	Sr	South Fayette
3	1	Jonah Powell	Jr	Grove City
4	2	Jack Zardecki	Sr	Dallas
5	3	Bryce Ohl	Sr	York Suburban
6	4	Quinn Serfass	Sr	Loyalsock
7		Nate Price	Jr	General McLane
8	5	Mark Brown	Jr	Greensburg Salem
9	6	Joe Cullen	Sr	Wyomissing
10	7	Anthony Harper	Sr	Bonner
11		Garrett Baublitz	So	Juniata
12	8	John Koons	Jr	Notre Dame
13		Erik Andrzejewski	Jr	General McLane
14	9	Ryan Stravaggi	Jr	Harbor Creek
15	10	Aiden Weber	Jr	Harbor Creek
16	11	Cameron Binda	Jr	Greensburg Salem
17	12	Mitchell Rome	Jr	Dallas
18		Clay Kismal	Sr	Crestwood
19		Ethan Bernstein	Sr	Saucon Valley
20		Mitchell Martin	Sr	Berwick
21	13	Christian Babo	Sr	Harbor Creek
22	14	Kendall Branan	So	Indiana
23		Cameron Junk	Sr	Upper Perk
24	15	Ben Kuhn	So	Wyomissing
25	16	Le'shawn Huff	Sr	New Castle
26		Jacob Pasake	Sr	Western Wayne
27	17	Jarrett Raudenski	Jr	York Suburban
28		Logan Horst	Jr	Lancaster Mennonite
29	18	Josh Wyandt	Sr	Dallas
30	19	Ryan Sullivan	Sr	Loyalsock
31	20	Van May	Fr	Bedford
32	21	Sheamus Hammerston	Sr	Notre Dame
33	22	Bryce Zapusek	Jr	Holy Redeemer
34		Robert Leiser	Sr	NW Lehigh
35		Johnathan Asay	Sr	Freeport
36		Luke Milhimes	Sr	Gettysburg
37	23	Joey Bujdos	Jr	Indiana
38		Dan Ford	So	Quaker Valley
39		Brett Pope	Sr	Bellefonte
40	24	Cejay Walker	Jr	Somerset
41		Ben Reisenweaver	Sr	Schuylkill Valley
42	25	Logan Caruso	Sr	Bradford
43	26	Matt Driben	Sr	Wyomissing
44		Jacob Eshelman	Jr	Franklin
45	27	Josh Kerr	Sr	York Suburban
46	28	Tyler Leeser	Sr	Milton
47		Shane Cohen	Jr	Lower Moreland
48	29	Adam Borton	Sr	Dallas
49	30	Dylan Binda	Jr	Greensburg Salem
50		Jacob Hammaker	Sr	Susquenita