Half Way State Qualifying Predictions: Part I

Instead of the typical team rankings this week, I'm going to do things a little bit differently. I'll be giving my early predictions for which teams will qualify for states at the end of this month. Later on, I'll be doing my official district previews similar to what I've done in the past few years (i.e. predicting everyone who will qualify for states from every district). Here's the first round of districts for you right here. Feel free to share your thoughts on these and the ones that are still outstanding in the comments.

District 8

AAA (1 Team)

1. Allderdice

I’ll give this prediction the best odds of any that I make in this post. Last year Allderdice swept the top 7 spots in this championship and this year’s team might be better. The real question for this squad is how high can they place as a team? If they have two medal contenders in Davis and Hermann that’s a nice start. Freeman has had a nice season contributing in the pack as well.

District 5

A (1 Team)

1. Winber

2. Southern Fulton

Southern Fulton has historically been the class of this … well … class, but Winber Area is off to a fast start in 2017. At the SFU Red Flash Invitational, Winber placed 5^th as a team, mixing it up with some strong D6 A programs and even toppling the likes of Penn Cambria and Westmont Hilltop. Tyler Napora was their surprise #1 in race one but they also feature a nice 2-3 punch of Trenton Noon (6^th at districts last year) and Matt Shank.

But here’s the catch, Southern Fulton returns three top ten finishers from last year’s district championships. They are experienced, they show up for championship season and they have a reputation to protect. They scored 23 points at least year’s championships and rolled past Winber and a strong Meyersdale crew. They could certainly come out and do something like that again, we just haven’t seen them compete in a big invite yet.

AA (1 Team)

1. Somerset

2. Bedford

A year ago, in the first AA District 5 championship, Somerset and Bedford faced off in essentially a dual meet for the team title. Somerset came out on top, essentially clinching the title with a 1-2 finish from Dominic Mazzariello and Cejay Walker. Both Mazz and Walker are back, but Bedford has an individual title contender on their roster as well in frosh Van May. When all is said and done, May may win the title in D5 (he’s that good), but I’m not sure that would be enough. Somerset looked like the more complete team at Foundation (although Bedford was missing a key piece in Alex Calhoun). I think the top 3 guys match up well, but Somerset will win this thing on the back end. That being said, it’s worth noting that Mazzariello has missed a couple meets this year. Hopefully he is healthy and ready to roll come championship season as he’s the defending district champ.

The other x-factor: both teams could make states if the losing team’s 5 scorers are ahead of the representatives from all other schools. Last year on Ean Flick (now graduated) stopped the District from sending an at large school to states.

District 4

A (1 Team)

1. Mount Caramel

2. Northeast Bradford

3. Southern Columbia

4. Wyalusing Valley

Thus far, Mount Caramel has proven to be the most complete team in the district. At the Northeast Invite, MC took the top A honors with 199 points, a score that dwarfed top contenders Southern Columbia by 82 points. That was thanks to a strong pack performance from the early D4 favorites. Caramel also looked great on the fast Lock Haven course in the early season and they have some championship pedigree from their AA days. That being said, if you want to poke holes in their roster, they could be vulnerable if a team gets enough runners in front of their front running pack. Maybe the depth will be bigger out front than it is mid-pack, opening up an opportunity for a team like Southern Columbia (who has the early pick for district champ in Ethan Knoebel) to seize a victory.

The team lurking is the always dangerous Northeast Bradford. They haven’t wowed me yet, but they put together a nice pack at McQuaid. Typically, this team peaks at the right time and brings home an impressive district championship. But I’m not sure they’ve had to deal with a program like Mount Caramel in recent years. Small shout out to Wyalusing Valley as well with Patton and Heeman leading the charge as game changing front runners, they could surprise if the 4-5 have a big day.

AA (2 Teams)

1. Milton Area

2. Warrior Run

3. Lewisburg

4. Loyalsock

5. Danville

6. Jersey Shore

Alright! Our first two teamer of the post! Well, this one is going to be tricky to call. At the top, there’s Milton Area. The defending champions have shown flashes so far this season, including a nice top three at Paul Short without their best runner in Tyler Leeser. Nick Doresky looks like a top 10 threat after a sub 17 at Lehigh. Kellan Guinn-Bailey, Sam Kendall (who also didn’t race at PS or PTXC) and Leeser. were already there last year. I just hope everyone is healthy and we get to see this team chase something big. If you add Leeser and Kendall in top form to that Paul Short squad this team could threaten top 5 in the state in a wide open AA. Without that pair, they will be grasping at straws just to get to Hershey.

I’m a big Warrior Run fan. Not just because they have a dope school name, but also because they’ve put up results every step of the way. After a 5^th place finish at Foundation, this squad rolled to a victory at the Northeast Invite after most of their primary rivals from the district. Look closer at their foundation results and see one of their best runners, Cassidy Hoffman, didn’t even have his best day. If he runs with their top pack, they are even better. This team, in theory, should be the favorites for the district championship. But they were just 6^th last year and have to overcome that if they want to make it to Hershey.

What makes it even tougher for me to pick Warrior Run is the fact that there are so many teams lurking behind them. Lewisburg is always a contender and the green mile was close behind the Warriors at Foundation and Northeast, even if a tier below. They’ve got a very young team with a lot of freshman to lean on, but this program has championship pedigree. By the way, the boys from Danville fall into this category as well. Danville always shows up for districts and they were also a top 10 team at Foundation and 3^rd at Northeast. Don’t be surprised if they make it to states.

Lastly, you have to mention some of the x-factors. Loyalsock’s top 3 is dynamic. Throw Quinn Serfass into their results from Northeast and Loyalsock likely has less than 12 points through 3 guys. It’s close to a 90 point swing in the results and moves Loyalsock right into the Lewisburg-Danville tier. Jersey Shore could see similar growth on their performance from Northeast if you throw Isaac Davis into the mix, however, they don’t boast quite the same firepower behind him (Sullivan and Quintana for Loyalsock were 4^th and 5^th at Northeast, the top 2 D4 AA finishers).

District 9

A (2 Teams)

1. Elk County Catholic

2. Smethport

3. Clarion

At the top, I think that this one is pretty straight forward. Elk County Catholic is a clear favorite for the title. They are the defending champions, return a bunch of stars and have their eyes on doing big things at states. Not much else to say that I haven’t said already. The battle for #2 is a little more interesting. Clarion looked strong at Foundation behind front runner Nathaniel Lerch, but Smethport took over the top contenders position after an excellent run at Ridgway. Smethport also has a win over Clarion and other top squads from the Bradford Invite. What makes Smethport so dangerous is that 1-2 punch of Gregory and Tanner, both of whom can strike the medal positions at states this fall. Freshman Jordan Pavlock has been a key addition as well. Clarion does appear to be deeper past the #5 runner so if off days come into play, they may be able to sneak by. But for now, Smethport and Elk CC seem like safe bets.

AA (1 Team)

1. Bradford

2. Punxsutawney

Bradford has now handled themselves well against a very good Elk County Catholic team on two separate occasions. Logan Caruso in top form and would be my early pick for the title individually. Punxsutawney was victorious a year ago, helped by a 1-2-3 finish, but they lost a key contributor to graduation and then another to transfer. This opens the door for Bradford to roll through and take back the title. Then the question becomes, how will they match up in Hershey?

District 12

A (2 Teams)

1. Masterman

2. Paul Robeson

There hasn’t been much action in this district outside of Masterman (who looks solid), so I went with the two teams who competed at states a year ago. I’d be very surprised if Masterman doesn’t take the title and after that it may be up for grabs. Paul Robeson has historically showed up big at districts and punched their ticket, but Motivation, Science Leadership and Constitution have all put together teams in the past that have been contenders. But the story for now is definitely Masterman. Can they be a top 10 team in A?

AA (2 Teams)

1. Bonner

2. Swenson

Again, we don’t have much to go on outside of the defending champions. Bonner looks poised to stay at the top of the district, led by reigning district champ Anthony Harper and some upstart freshmen. Behind them, last year’s silver medalists from Conwell Egan haven’t raced with a full five runners yet this year, opening the door for Swenson (third last year and returning their top 3). Again, we likely won’t know what we are dealing with until the Philly Public/Catholic League Finals are complete, but it’s an open battle on paper right now.

AAA (2 Teams)

1. LaSalle

2. O’Hara

3. St. Joe’s

Since the move to two teams in District 12 AAA, LaSalle and O’Hara have been clear favorites to make states. This year, the same narrative is in place. LaSalle is currently my #1 ranked team in the state after their emphatic run at Carlisle. Although O’Hara isn’t quite the star studded team they were in 2011-2014, they are still a strong, deep team that has a pack to get them to states. St. Joe’s Prep, the perennial third placers, won’t go quietly. Calvin Willie and Patrick Lorei (hasn’t raced yet) were state qualifiers last year, Ricky Raup is an x-factor and James Brooks is off to a great start. They had four guys at 17:15 or faster at Paul Short and, with a step up performance at #5, could maybe sneak ahead of O’Hara. I don’t see that happening as things currently stand, but you never know.

District 11

A (1 Team)

1. Mahanoy

2. Notre Dame ES

The top 7 runners from last year’s district meet return and that includes three guys from Mahanoy. At Foundation, Mahanoy’s top competition didn’t race a full five guys (Notre Dame ES) so it was tough to really get a feel for home the teams match up. As of now, based on Manahoy’s showing at PTXC and Northampton (three under 18), I think this team is in a good spot to repeat. Notre Dame probably still heads the contenders, based on a nice result at the Lions Invite where they put 5 guys at 19:30 or faster. Andrew Beers leads their squad.

AA (2 Teams)

1. Notre Dame GP

2. North Schuylkill

3. Blue Mountain

4. Allentown Central Catholic

The defending district champions have a new weapon in 2017. Notre Dame Green Pond returned a state medalist in John Koons, but they’ve added a prime time running made for the junior in Seamus Hammerston. Both guys were under 16 minutes at the McQuaid Invite 3 miler. They were joined by a nice pack behind them including Anthony Pacchioli who was 6^th at districts last year. My gut says they will run away with the title this year. However, North Schuylkill gave them a close run last year and does return their 1-2 punch of McCabe and McCormick. They haven’t blown me away thus far, but they look solid.

I like Blue Mountain’s upside. They knocked off North Schuylkill by a nose at the Northeast Invitational (206-212) and actually had a better 1-2 punch with a faster #5. They don’t have the proven pedigree that NS showed last year, but they’ve clearly got talent. Allentown Central Catholic always seems to be in contention. They had a rare misstep last year and missed states, but they will be back in the hunt this season. They too had a close fight with Blue Mountain, this battle coming at Foundation (393-414). They were really a front runner away from climbing the Mountaineers in the final standings.

Northwestern Lehigh could emerge as a deep sleeper. They have perhaps the best 1-2 punch in the district with Phillip Castrine and Robert Leiser on the roster. They have a pack behind them that, if they step up over the final stretch of the season, could become contenders.

AAA (2 Teams)

1. Easton

2. Parkland

3. Stroudsburg

4. Southern Lehigh

This is an interesting one. Parkland seems to be the safe pick. They’ve rolled through this district in the past and are defending champs. However, both Easton and Stroudsburg, two teams with a chip on their shoulder after missing states last fall, have come storming out the gates. This Easton team has a chance to be special. Joseph Ozgar is a bold front runner with potential and the Cardones posted a one-two punch under 16:20 at Paul Short. They had a great pack, a bold group and a top 4 that looks excellent. They bring back 4 of their top 5 next season as well.

Stroudsburg is interesting. They didn’t have a perfect day at Paul Short, but still came within two points of Parkland. We saw just how strong they could be when things clicked at Centaur. For Parkland, they are missing a key piece in Sam Morgan, but Riley Williamson has stepped up big time to fill the #1 spot. He looks like he might be the district champ. Add in a consistently improving pack of young guys and this team is likely the favorite to keep their state qualifying streak going.

Southern Lehigh became everyone’s favorite Cinderella last season when they nearly stole the district title at Bethlehem Municipal with a group of relative unknowns. They returned a lot of pieces, but we’ve yet to see most of their big guns race. So far there has been no sign of Matsumura, Welsh or Klar-Chaudhuri, their top 3 returners. However, their #4 returner, Colin Cramer, has been outstanding and placed near the top of a loaded Foundation field. If they get their big guns back, the district should be on alert.

District 2

A (1 Team)

1. Montrose

2. Lakeland

3. Elk Lake

Unfortunately for the other high quality teams in this district, it looks like Montrose will be hard to beat again in 2017. The 2016 runaway champs rolled to a victory last year and seem to be just as potent a year later. Some JV runners have stepped up to become capable varsity runners and the confident bunch already knocked off Dallas at Cliff Robbins. They had 7 guys under 17 minutes at McQuaid, including Brandon Curley at 15:27 for the 3 mile distance.

Although Elk Lake used to be the class of this division before Montrose showed up, they will have to worry about Lakeland this year if they want to even stay in the top 2. At the Lackawanna invite, despite a 1-3 finish from Peyton Jones and Cody Oswald, Lakeland ended up the top A team. Zach Reeves, a sophomore, led the way with a 4^th place finish in that meet and the team’s 3 through 5 finished right next to each other in the line-up. Lakeland actually put 7 guys in front of Elk Lake’s #5 in their most recent match up. This should be an exciting match up and, although it technically doesn’t affect the state picture, is still a great match up between top notch programs.

AA (2 Teams)

1. Dallas

2. Holy Redeemer

3. Crestwood

Dallas is the defending champs, a proven program and returns a bunch of talent. It’s hard to imagine them slipping from their top spot. Much like Montrose in A, the storyline will be centered around states for this program. However, the battle for second seems a bit more up for grabs. For now, I’d pick Holy Redeemer. They showed their fortitude last year at these championships and return most of that core. They were among the top AA schools at Foundation and they’ve got a nice amount of depth. They haven’t blown me away, but it’s hard to argue for any other team to surpass them.

As of right now, a true challenger hasn’t emerged. Tunkhannock and Scranton Prep are on my short list of contenders but that is more a testament to the pedigree of their programs than their results to date. They have been solid, but not quite explosive enough to give me confidence they can knock off either of the two teams that sits in the driver seat for states. Maybe Crestwood could make a surge behind front runner Clay Kimsal, but they will need a bit more of a pack behind him to match Redeemer.

AAA (1 Team)

1. Wallenpaupack

2. Abington Heights

3. Scranton

With two races somewhat decided already, the AAA championships seems much more up for grabs. Defending champions Abington Heights will look to ward off the challengers from Wallenpaupack (while also holding off Hazleton and Scranton). Wallenpaupack ended up third in the final standings a year ago, but this season they picked up XC rookie Tyler Wirth (currently #10 on my rankings) and frosh Deiter Burckes (sub 16:45 at Paul Short) to help bolster their roster alongside Thomas Johnson. That top three outmatches the top three of Abington Heights which includes sub 16 man Kyle Burke and Dan Uhranowsky. That being said, in a smaller meet (as opposed to Paul Short where these teams last met) that front running advantage shrinks a bit, meaning the pressure will be on Stephen Haggerty and ryan Siebecker (along with Damon Martin) to step up for Abington Heights and swing the title.

Don’t count out Hazleton or Scranton. Hazleton has a strong front runner in Franklin Cunningham and ran well behind him at the Northeast Invite. Scranton actually beat Hazleton by 9 in the opening meet of the season. Their front runner isn’t quite as good as the superstars from their competition, but their pack may be the deepest out of anybody in this field. On the flip side, Scranton was 5^th last year with no top 20 finishers. They’ll need to step their game up to contend this year.