This
year’s state championship team battles are sure to be legendary. Last year, I’d
say we had three pretty clear favorites for gold in Hershey. This year, it’s
not quite as clear cut.
10. Masterman
The District
12 champions haven’t faced the toughest competition this season, but they have
rolled past the top squads that they have opposed. They took 4 of the top 5
spots at Belmont, denied a clean sweep of the top 4 by Kamil Jihad of Neuman
Goretti (who was a top 50 finisher at states last year). I’ve got their top
dog, Dan Bici, finishing in the medals and I think the rest of their core will
hold their own on the Hershey hills. Masterman is a strong program that has had
some historically strong teams in past years and this one actually stacks up
pretty decently alongside them. That being said, if Shenango puts their pack
together and gets a touch of front running for Salem, then the WPIAL will have
3 top 10 teams and make this prediction look silly.
9. Mount Caramel
If
Mount Caramel didn’t win the team championship at districts, they might not
have had any state qualifiers. Their top individual was just 6th in
a district that projects to have just one state medalist (according to me who,
just to clarify, has been wrong so
many times). On the flip, Mount Caramel has a great pack. They have multiple
guys who could step up and lead the team, depending on the day. This is another
well coached program and they seemed to have a little chip on their shoulder.
That underdog mentality could serve them well on the Hershey hills. Somebody
needs to step up and be a front runner or this team will be buried early, but I
think they stack up well against the other squads that project to be around
them in the front running area and then they can overcome any disadvantages
through their pack.
8. Seneca
This
Seneca squad has impressed me thus far in 2017. They’ve refused to roll over and
surrender the top spot in District 10 and, although they came up just short of
maintaining their title, they are back in the state championships yet again. Brock
Smith, as just a sophomore, has been a clutch front running presence. Jake
Schneider and Rob Stepnowski are experienced and have excelled in Hershey
before, particularly Rob who projects to be the #3 man on his team but could be
#2 if he captures some of the momentum he had at last year’s championships. I’m
a big proponent of the “Top 3” theory, especially at states where the team
scores become more and more of a wash after about the first 30ish places. I’m
quite high on Seneca as they head into states.
7. Cochranton
The District
10 champions have their own “Top 3” to praise. Not only do they have Noah
Bernarding, a top 5 contender at the upcoming state meet, but they also boast
Jac Cokley and Stephen Clulow. Cokley has been fantastic this year, a sneaky
pick for a state medalist, but Clulow has been the revelation in recent weeks.
He’s been rapidly ascending the ranks of District 10 and finished 7th
in the competitive district this past weekend. Lee Ault could make this big 3
into a big 4 with the right kind of day and projects to be a tier above many
team’s #4. There will be some light pressure on the #5 spot for sure, but that’s
a part of being a A school. Depth is always going to be a question.
6. Riverview
Hey,
you know who may not have depth as a question? Riverview. I’ve been praising
this team’s depth down to the JV squad, a pretty unique fact for a A school,
but in order to place well here at states they will need their 1-2 punch to
deliver. Ben Barnes and Michael Komaniak could both be medalists (Barnes seems
like a near lock). With top finishes, they can hang with a Cochranton out front
while simultaneously opening up big gaps on teams like Mount Caramel. Riverview
has been here before, qualifying for states each of the past two seasons. They finished
11th last year, but I think this year’s team is better. The big
swing man is Gideon Deasy, a freshman with big talent. He rounds out that top 3
and determines if this team can break into that ultra competitive top 5. I like
Sullivan and Cecil as pieces. I think they will deliver solid days at 4 &
5.
5. Montrose
I think
Montrose is the first team on this list that, if they won states, my jaw wouldn’t
drop. That may not sound like much, but usually that’s the #5 team in the state.
Some years it’s #2. Personally, I thought Montrose had a legit shot at winning
the state championship last year, although I was probably the only one that
felt that way. Ultimately, the pressure of the moment got to them and they
faded out of the medals. When the dust settled a year ago, they were 5th.
I’m not sure this year’s team is better, but they should be more prepared.
Redemption was on #1 man Brandon Curley’s mind in his post-race interview and
he and Liam Mead, neither of which had a show stopping performance at last year’s
state race, will need to be in the medals if Montrose wants that upset. Through
7, I think this is our deepest team. They’ve got all seniors and juniors in
their expected top 5. They’ve got 4 guys with state championship experience.
There’s a lot to like here, but I’d prefer not to put the pressure on them I
did last year.
4. Jenkintown
Jenkintown
was one of the biggest surprises for me personally at last year’s state
championships. They got two state medalists including the top sophomore in the
field, Jack Miller. Those two state medalists are back this year ready to turn
heads again. This time, however, I’m ready for them, to the point where you
could argue I’m hyping them a little too much. After a clean 15 point sweep at districts,
Jenkintown has done all they can to prove they are ready for a state title
push. They were well back of the two big dogs at Foundation, but this is a much
improved team since then. The most critical part of their growth has been the
freshmen: Luke Miller and Carter Geer. If those two guys are on point, this
team will be in the mix for a podium spot. The freshmen thing is certainly
scary-young guys can have a tough time under the bright lights, especially on
the Hershey hills-but, as you will see, it’s a common theme with all of these
schools.
3. Elk County Catholic
Just a
year ago, Elk County Catholic was the team with the freshmen who were under
pressure. Well, those youngsters delivered as Ben Hoffman was 27th
and Isaac Wortman was 54th.
Hoffman jumped from 43rd at the 2-mile and Isaac from 59th.
They ran like a couple seasoned veterans on this course and were the main
reason Elk County was able to hold off Seneca in the final standings. Now those
freshmen are sophomores and they are continuing to outperform their age. Ben
Hoffman is now the district champ and has been the consistent #1 runner for his
squad. Wortman has emerged as a reliable #2, posting an impressive 3rd
place mark at districts. In total, Elk CC’s 4 returners from last year’s
runner-up combined for just 19 points at districts. All 4 of those guys have a
chance to be top 50 finishers at states which would make them an easy top 3
team. Jacob Carnovale, the team’s projected #5, has run tight with Logan
Hoffman and Matt Dippold (the projected #3-4) so the spread won’t take a big
hit their either. I don’t have much reason to doubt these guys, it’s really
just a matter of respect for the top two teams that is keeping them in the
bronze position.
2. Winchester Thurston
In case
you need a reminder, Winchester Thurston is the defending state champions. They
won the title last year with ease, putting three guys on the medal stand for a
second straight season. Winchester Thurston also was state champs in 2014 and,
if not for an unfortunate injury, they believe they would have been state
champs again in 2015. They would be sitting on a potential 4-peat right now if
that were the case. That’s why you have to take this team seriously as a title
contender.
Well,
that and the fact that they just rolled through the WPIAL championship. Tristan
Forsythe ran away from a stacked field while Gordon Pollock and Scott Routledge
also finished in the top 6. Given this team’s track record for medals, those
three guys could all be getting individual hardware. Typically, if you get
three guys in the medals, you win a state title. However, they don’t stop
counting at #3 so the 1-2 punch of freshmen, Patrick Malone and Ben Bermann,
will need to deliver. As back up, they also boast Sean Heintzleman, a top 50
finisher from last year’s state meet, who can help provide some insurance for
the rookies. Not to put unnecessary pressure on a couple 9th
graders, but I think the championship hopes of this school may rest on their
shoulders. The good news is Winchester Thurston has gotten top 50 finishes from
freshmen each of their state championship seasons so they are with the right
coach to pull off the unexpected.
1. Penns Valley
In a
meet filled with important freshmen, there are none more important than the two
wearing Penns Valley jerseys this weekend. PV was on my radar before the season
started as a dark horse for a top 5 spot in the state, but I wasn’t expecting
much more. Than Brendan Colwell and Colton Sands showed up. The two all-stars
have been the ultimate x-factor for the Valley as they rolled to big
performances at Big Valley, Spiked Shoe and, most memorably, the Foundation
Invite in Hershey. These state course rookies were 7th and 9th
at Foundation, outdueling the highly touted top 3 of Winchester Thurston and
Jenkintown. In the long lay off since, it doesn’t appear they’ve lost much of
their pep. Penns Valley’s freshmen took 3rd and 4th in a
deep District 6 championship meet.
Now
there are more pieces on this team than just freshmen. Chris Colwell returns as
a senior leader who has already collected an individual state medal. He is
competing in a 4th straight state championship. Sam Gray and Mark
Bierly were also top 20 at Foundation and top 10 at Districts. On paper, they’ve
been the best 4-5 in the state. If these guys all click, they will likely have
5 top 50 finishers and three state medalists. That’s the prototype for a state
championship.
However,
one off day, whether it is a freshman or a senior, and the race becomes a bit
more wide open. There was over a minute gap between Bierly and #6 man Charlie
Romig at districts. The same can be said for Elk County Catholic. That’s what
makes states a real wildcard and it’s what should give every team hope as they circle
the course and sprint the last hill.
So tie
your shoes tightly, avoid deer and have fun out there kids.
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