2017 PIAA XC District Previews: District 11

District 11 (10/25)

A (1 Team, 5 Individuals)

1. Mahanoy

2. Notre Dame ES

1	Jacob Martinez	Jr	Palmerton
2	Scotty Zoscin	Fr	Weatherly
3	Wayne Reilly	Jr	Tri-Valley
4	Adam Soriano	So	Mahanoy
5	Andrew Beers	Sr	Notre Dame ES
6	Cole Striesel	So	Mahanoy
7	Brandon Stasulli	Jr	Marian Catholic
8	Willie Striesel	Sr	Mahanoy
9	Hunter Zahm	Sr	Moravian
10	Seth Soriano	Sr	Mahanoy
11	Aaron Srinivasan	Sr	Marian Catholic
12	Jake Leonard	So	Notre Dame ES

I went back and forth a few times on this individual battle. The defending champ from Tri-Valley is Wayne Reilly. He’s got experience winning on this stage not just on the trails, but also on the track where was the 3200 state qualifier in AA. Wayne actually topped his league time from a year ago this past week, indicating he may be fitter than he was when he won gold in 2016. However, the problem isn’t necessarily with him: it’s the competition. Jacob Martinez from Palmerton has made the sophomore to junior jump in a big way. In his big race action this year he has been excellent and I think he projects to contend for a state medal. Meanwhile, Weatherly freshman Scotty Zoscin actually defeated Reilly at their league championship. The youngster fought well against Brad Clemson from AA and proved he can handle himself on a big stage. Of course, districts is a different kind of animal.

I don’t think there is much of a chance that any team knocks off Mahanoy. The defending team champions have a strong 1-2 punch in Soriano and Striesel who proved themselves on this same surface last year with clutch finishes. These guys are experienced, racing big meets like Foundation and PTXC, and are talented. They nearly knocked off AA North Schuylkill at leagues in one of their best performances in recent memory (some 30 seconds faster on average). I think they actually project to be better than they were a year ago when they scored just 26 points. They may not lower that score (I think the competition is deeper at the top), but they could average faster than their 18:08 from last season. Assuming they advance, it will be interesting to see how Mahanoy handles a loaded field at A states. This is a strong team, but they will be up against some loaded competition. Keep an eye on their spread from this week to help with that projection.

AA (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

1. Notre Dame Green Pond

2. North Schuylkill

3. Allentown CC

1	Ethan Bernstein	Sr	Saucon Valley
2	John Koons	Jr	Notre Dame GP
3	Sheamus Hammerston	Sr	Notre Dame GP
4	Sean McCabe	Jr	North Schuylkill
5	Brad Clemson	Sr	Tamaqua
6	Robert Leiser	Sr	NW Lehigh
7	Phillip Castrine	Sr	NW Lehigh
8	Matt Chaikowsky	Fr	Saucon Valley
9	Dylan MicNichol	Sr	Palisades
10	Travis Anderson	So	Pine Grove
11	Kevin Haas	So	Blue Mountain
12	Jake Nahas	Jr	North Schuylkill
13	Matt McCormick	Sr	North Schuylkill
14	Anthony Pacchioli	Sr	Notre Dame GP
15	Sam Hydro	Jr	Jim Thorpe
16	Shane Artis	So	Salisbury
17	Anthony Coppolella	So	Pen Argyl
18	Jacob Kluge	Jr	Blue Mountain
19	Aaron Shoemaker	Sr	Allentown CC
20	Nick Deschler	Sr	Allentown CC

A year ago, this race featured an epic battle between Saucon Valley’s Ethan Bernstein and Notre Dame Green Pond’s John Koons. The two traded their wins in the most important races of the season, Bernstein earning the district title and Koons taking the state medal. This year I feel like we could have a similar script. Personally, I think Bernstein has had an awesome season. He was sub 16 at Paul Short and picked up a big early season victory over the Abington Heights 1-2 punch. However, in Bernstein and Koons’s last meeting, the junior got the better of his rival at the Colonial League championships by 17 seconds. I think Bernstein gets revenge at districts and keeps his title. Koons, who is rounding into form at the perfect time after a bit of a slower start, will give him everything he can handle.

One of the big wild cards for me in this race is Sheamus Hammerston. He was sub 16 minutes for 3 miles at McQuaid and started the year as Notre Dame’s #1 guy as Koons returned to form. Hammerston was 13^th at districts a year ago (his team’s #4 runner), but I think he tops that mark by a good margin this go around. The Northwestern Lehigh duo of Leiser and Castrine is dangerous as well. Leiser was a top 50 finisher at states last year and both guys were top 5 in the district. They’ve got ground to make up after leagues, but I believe they will bounce back. A couple other more under the radar picks to make noise would be Brad Clemson of Tamaqua and Kevin Haas of Blue Mountain. I especially like Haas’s potential to surprise. In total, the top 8 runners from last year’s meet are back. We could see a similar looking result to last year.

In the team battle, I’m predicting a similar result to last year. I think Notre Dame takes this win and sets themselves up well for states. If they post a low score in the 30s or so, they will suddenly become an intriguing team in the AA title race. You’ll notice my theme of these posts is that the AA team race is pretty wide open. Lots of teams could sneak into the top 10-5 range. Keep an eye on Anthony Pacchioli for Notre Dame. He was 6^th at districts last year as the team’s #2 runner.

North Schuylkill is my other pick. I think Allentown Central Catholic may end up with the better pack (last year they had a terrific spread), but NS’s front running will give them the edge. That’s led by Sean McCabe but also includes Jake Nahas and last year’s 8^th place finisher Matt McCormick. Allentown CC does have the advantage of having already raced on the Bethlehem Municipal course last week. Plus, they’ve been known to peak well for this meet in the past. Last year was a rare state qualifying miss for them.

AAA (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

1. Parkland

2. Easton

3. Stroudsburg

4. Southern Lehigh

1	Riley Williamson	Jr	Parkland
2	Colin Cramer	Sr	Southern Lehigh
3	Nicholas Bower	Jr	Parkland
4	Cosmo Cardone	Jr	Easton
5	Darlyn Fermin	Jr	Liberty
6	Matt Bodon	Sr	Stroudsburg
7	Marco Cardone	So	Easton
8	Thomas Matsumura	Sr	Southern Lehigh
9	Joseph Ozgar	Jr	Easton
10	Zach Landvik-Larsen	Jr	Stroudsburg
11	Jacob Ringer	Sr	Parkland
12	Sean Guydish	Sr	Easton
13	Morgan O'Brien	Jr	Bangor
14	Shu-Yu Chen	Jr	Stroudsburg
15	Luke Valdevit	Sr	Pleasant Valley
16	Marino Bubba	So	Bangor
17	Josh Santiago	Sr	Dieruff
18	Ryan Murphy	Sr	Pleasant Valley
19	Anthony Kositz	Fr	Nazareth
20	Cole Frank	Fr	Liberty
21	Blake Samsel	Sr	Nazareth
22	Jonathan Miers	So	Easton
23	Alec DiCesare	Fr	Southern Lehigh

Given the history of the district, Parkland and Easton seem like safe bets most years for the state qualifying spots out of D11. However, a year ago the boys from Southern Lehigh broke the mold on that prediction and nearly rolled all the way to the team championship. An upset like that makes me curious about who could rise from obscurity this year and knock off the two top dogs. That same Southern Lehigh squad is lurking, adding back Thomas Matsumura to the equation at leagues last weekend. Stroudsburg was one of my sleeper picks for states a year ago and has looked just as strong in 2017 with arguably better, more experienced front running. Maybe one of these two squads will be the Cinderella?

However, I’m opting for chalk with Parkland and Easton as my qualifiers. The Parkland pick is a bit of an upset as they’ve yet to topple Easton in any major invite this season. However, they have been slowly shrinking the gap. Parkland has done a nice job developing their pack since Centaur and their 1-2 punch is quickly becoming a 1-2-3 as Jacob Ringer continues to ascend.

If you actually do the math and add up my individual predictions, I think it says Easton gets the win. I’m kind of hedging here as I believe Easton has a ton of talent. If they run to their potential, they will roll through this thing and take back the title for the first time since the Colin Abert days. However, they are a younger squad with 4 of their key scorers as non-seniors and two important sophomores to rely on. Like Stroudsburg, Easton had some heartbreak last year at districts when they missed out on states. Let’s see what they’ve learned from that experience.

Individually, this battle is going to be epic. Riley Williamson and Colin Cramer both won their respective league championships and are both early medal contenders in a deep AAA. Williamson’s time at Paul Short this season was jaw dropping and he also produced an impressive silver at Centaur. Really there’s not much to dislike about this junior’s season. Cramer had his best mark of the season at Foundation. He runs the Hershey course well, but he struggled a bit on this Bethlehem Municipal course a season ago. Let’s see if he’s figured out how to attack it this time around.

My sleeper pick in the individual race is Darlyn Fermin for Liberty. I don’t think he will win, but I could see him surprising for a silver if someone has an off day. Fermin ran strong at Paul Short and had to gain some confidence from his performance at EPCs. I think there is still room in the tank for more. Deeper down the list, I’d watch for the Pleasant Valley boys and the Nazareth boys. Their top individuals will likely be right around the state qualifying bubble. Bangor also has a couple runners who could be a factor. Morgan O’Brien is a bounce back pick for me. He made states last year at this meet and has a lot of talent. I think he has a small rebound from leagues and picks up a qualifying mark.