Half Way State Qualifying Predictions: Part II

Note: For my WPIAL fans, I left you guys out of this halfway report. Not because I hate you, but because it seems kind of silly to do an in depth look at that district when basically all the top programs are about to face off at Slippery Rock this upcoming weekend. They will get their own special post after that meet where I break down the team qualifying field in depth. But for now, you will have to wait.

District 3

A (2 Teams)

1. York Catholic

2. Delone Catholic

3. Tulephocken

The York Catholic boys have been tops in the District at their only two invites of the year, a couple major ones at Big Spring and Hershey. That’s a good sign for a team that has been waiting patiently for a chance to bust into the state championship picture. Personally, I believe these guys may end up a top 10 team at states (they were 5^th at Foundation). By season’s end, I think they will have a dynamite big three with potential for more.

Delone Catholic is kind of the young blood of this race. I may be anointing them prematurely as Tulpehocken has a nice pack and experience on their side, but I’m rolling with Adler Brinninger (just a sophomore) and DC team that lost on a 6^th man tiebreaker to that same Tulpehocken team last year. I think they get their long awaited revenge in 2017. Camp Hill was state champs just two years ago and, although they haven’t made a ton of noise so far, should never be completely overlooked in a post about D3 A.

AA (3 Teams)

1. York Suburban

2. Wyomissing

3. Milton Hershey

4. Lancaster Mennonite

Look, the easy thing to say is that Wyomissing and York Suburban will both be state qualifiers. But putting these teams in order? That’s a lot trickier. Wyomissing made a strong case to be the #1 team in the state after a big showing at Paul Short. They had 6 guys under 17 minutes and 3 guys under 16:15! That’s fantastic stuff! And that was just their first major race of the season! So we could just be scratching the surface with this team. I was super high on them in the preseason and I am ready to jump all in on this team.

That being said, you have to respect York Suburban. The reigning district champs have a knack for peaking at the right time, showing up for championship meets and developing that top 5. Their top 2 are running fantastic and you can see the pieces of a strong pack when you look at the depth chart. Based on purely what I’ve seen so far this season, I think Wyomissing is better. But when you incorporate history, I’ll take my chances with York Suburban. For now anyway.

Hershey seems like the logical pick for the 3^rd spot. They qualified for states last year. They won at Big Spring AA this year (convincingly) and they were the top AA team at Carlisle with a 17:12 average. Their #5 at Carlisle was their #1 at districts last year so there’s actually even more upside than that for Milton.

So, yes, I’ve got a boring top 3 that is exactly the same as last year. My apologies fans. If you are looking for upsets, the real wildcard here is Lancaster Mennonite. They have 3 of the best dudes in the entire district. Logan Horst is going to be competing for a top 5 spot with Yoder and Abebe likely state qualifiers as well. But they will need some step up marks at the 4-5 to really contend. When you have that strong of a top 3, it makes finding depth a bit easier, so keep an eye on where the end of their season goes. Home field advantage Big Spring could also be a deep sleeper.

AAA (4 Teams)

1. Carlisle

2. Twin Valley

3. Hempfield

4. Cumberland Valley

5. Lower Dauphin

6. Mechanicsburg

7. Chambersburg

8. Palmyra

9. Manheim Township

A year ago, we saw some of the most surprising state qualifiers from District 3. I can still remember the surprised messages about Manheim Central and Mechanicsburg. That was a wild district meet with some 10 teams that had realistic hopes of punching a ticket to states. Well, the story looks no different this year in District 3. At the top, Carlisle seems safe. They are consistent state qualifiers, defending champions and have proven themselves emphatically with a 3^rd place finish at their home invite, easily the top performance of all local teams. Twin Valley, too, seems like a reasonable bet to make states. Twin Valley showed just what they were made of at William Tennent last weekend, taking 2^nd ahead of DT West. They were the #2 D3 team at Carlisle despite arguably leaving a couple points on the table. TV has also proven they have a knack for performing at districts. They qualified for states in 2013 and 2014 and just missed in 2015.

After that, I start to get less confident. You have to like Hempfield’s results so far. The 2014 and 2015 District Champions were tops at Big Spring and tops at Paul Short for the D3 AAA schools. If we are being honest, at those meets there wasn’t much top tier D3 competition (although Manheim Township intrigues me), but they handled their business which you have to respect. Christian Groff is a stud front runner and Justin Rittenhouse is an emerging stand out. I like this team’s potential and, although they were a surprise miss in 2016, still believe in their ability to peak. Even in an “off year” they send 3 guys to states. I’ll feel comfortable hitching my wagon to this squad.

After that, I think things are really up for grabs. I really like some of Lower Dauphin’s pieces. They were 3^rd at Big Spring, but ended up the top squad in the Champions race at Carlisle. It appears based on the results that they pulled this off without returning state medalist Jared Giannascoli (who is hopefully healthy) and with a big performance by Josiah Helmer. If they find a #5 they are in a position to upset some schools. Mechanicsburg tells a similar story. They have what is arguably the best top 3 in the district including the likely district champ in Morgan Cupp. They don’t have a ton of firepower at 4-5, but all they need is one guy to emerge and they are contenders, the same formula as a year ago applies.

But for now, I’m betting on Cumberland Valley. They were the top of this crow at Carlisle and looked good at Gettysburg, even if Chambersburg was snipping at their heels. I like their depth, I think Andrew Brown is having a big season and I expect one or two guys to pop off a big result at districts. I just have a tough time betting against this program.

If you are looking for a fun deep sleeper, don’t overlook Palmyra. One of the smaller schools in the district, Palmyra was 21^st a year ago. However, their pack is looking much better this year and front runner Matt Carroll impressed with a 16:11 time at Carlisle. They’ve got 3 under 17 with potentially more to come by season’s end.

District 10

A (2 Teams)

1. Seneca

2. North East

3. Cochranton

4. West Middlesex

Seneca is the defending champions and has been dominant in D10 for about a half decade. But here’s the catch, this season they won’t have the Myers twins to lead them in their quest for a title. It’s hard to overstate just how big of a loss two of the most accomplished 4 year runners in the district are. But here’s the thing, I think there’s a legacy here. Usually the great runners leave a trail for a year or two at the least and Seneca clearly has pieces hanging around to contend. I think the past few races have given me confidence in the back half of their varsity and I’ve already been on board with Brock Smith and Jake Schneider as the 1-2.

I’m in Seneca’s corner, but they are far from a lock. There’s a host of teams that are coming for the throne and looking strong. Let’s check in quickly on some of the key western meets. Early at Big Red we saw North East-Cochranton-West Middlesex take the top D10 spots. Cochranton was best through 4, but North East stole it on the 5. At Commodore Perry it was Cochranton-Seneca-Reynolds as the top D10 A schools. Cochranton edged out Seneca, but Seneca was missing Nick Post in the lineup. Cochrnaton topped Seneca again at Sharpsville, this time more convincingly with West Middlesex pretty far back. Cochranton also won big at their home invite. So it seems like they should be the pick, right?

Well, I’m not positive. I like this squad, but I also think North East has the pieces to win the district. At McQuaid they had a monster line up with 4 under 17, 1 under 16 (Josh Lewis) and a 5 at 17:18. They didn’t look as convincingly strong this weekend, but I think this is the most talented team in the district. If they falter, Cochranton will be waiting.

If you thought this paragraph as all over the place, that’s because it was. I’m feeling all over the place myself in this district. Watch for West Middlesex (the qualifiers last year), Reynolds, Lakeview and Cambridge Springs to try and further complicate this playoff picture in the coming weeks.

AA (2 Teams)

1. Grove City

2. Harbor Creek

3. General McLane

For me this would be a no brainer if it wasn’t for last year. Grove City missed states a year ago and, if they read this blog, they are probably sick of hearing about it. This squad is loaded again in 2017, but they will have some demons to exercise at districts. I’d be shocked to see them go down again (arguably more surprised this year), but you never know. Harbor Creek is a strong challenger. Their top 3, when healthy, is better. The 4-5 are improving enough that I wouldn’t be surprised if HC wins the district meet. Regardless of who is first in the standings, I think these top two squads are close to locks at this stage, barring injury.

It’s worth noting that General McLane was the 2^nd team to make states out of this district a year ago. And they return their 1-2 punch that helped lead them there in Nate Price and Erik Andrzejewski. Those guys are top 10 contenders at states in AA. I really like Price as a sleeper pick for a top 5 finish. Both guys are just juniors. I think General McLane is a #5 runner away from making a run. That #5 guy might be Dylan Throop who was solid in Meet #1 this season, but didn’t end up in the results at McQuaid. Keep an eye on where that goes as that could help catapult this squad into contention.

AAA (1 Team)

1. McDowell

2. Cathedral Prep

Cathedral Prep and McDowell tend to trade this bad boy back and forth. I think this year it goes back to McDowell. The two have yet to go head to head this year, but McDowell has three big dogs in Daubert, Holmberg and Zimmerman that translate pretty easily as contenders for tops in D10. I think that big three will clinch it for McDowell, but the always formidable Catherdal Prep pack will loom as challengers. Keep an eye on Race Nicolia. Not only does he ever a great first name, he’s also the team’s top returner form districts last year. After a relatively slow start, he’s been gaining steam in a hurry in recent weeks and may peak perfectly for the championships.

District 6

A (2 Teams)

1. Penns Valley

2. St. Joesph’s

3. Purchase Line

Penns Valley is one of the biggest no brainers on this list. The defending champions have been the clear cut #1 team in the state through the opening month. No reason to pick against them at this stage in the game (come states maybe I’ll sing a different tune).

The battle for the #2 spot likely revolves around Purchase Line and St Joesph’s Catholic. SJC is a fun, up and coming team. They were 4^th at the Foundation meet and were led by 4 sophomores including Carter Kauffman, a medal threat in A this season. Meanwhile, Purchase Line is a perennial power. They were state qualifiers last year and also threw down one of the fastest 4x8 in the state for AA. It’s just a good strong program who showed some major talent at the Crimson Hawk Invite with three top 7 finishers. Of course at that meet, United had 4 top 10 finishers and the sleeper pick in this district scored 45 points to the Line’s 45, toppling PL on a tie breaker.

Purchase Line, United and Westmont Hilltop were all also tightly packed at the Red Flash Invite although this time Purchase Line was best of the bunch by 7 points over United. St. Joe’s has been traveling in slightly different circles from that bunch, going to meets like Ben Blosser, Carlisle and Ridgway to race out district competition. I kinda like this strategy as the younger team gets experience in a variety of races. Maybe that will make them a bit more comfortable at Districts.

AA (1 Team)

1. Central Cambria

2. Forrest Hills

This is going to be a lame answer, but I’d be stunned to see anybody outside of Central Cambria atop the podium. They were dominant last year and return practically all the key pieces from that core. They rolled again at the Red Flash Invite and, even without some of their big names, had five guys under 18 minutes at Carlisle. I’ve got Central Cambria as my champ with a battle behind to make noise.

AAA (1 Team)

1. State College

2. Mifflin County

So this doesn’t seem like as much of a homer run as it has been in past years, but I’ve got State College doing work and advancing to states once again. The Little Lions have added Mitchell Etter seamlessly to the equation and suddenly have arguably the two best runners in the district. Now Mifflin County will look to counter that with their own formidable 1-2 punch of freshman Brayden Harris and the ascending Chayce Macknair.

Of course, as is the case in most big meets, this race comes down to the runners that are not necessarily the stars. Can Mifflin County’s pack hang with State College? Seth Phillips and Garren Wolfgang, a pair of sub 2 minute 800 guys, will be the names to watch in this upset push. For State College, they will lean on Sam Horn, Bennett Norton, Ari Gluckman and Joe Messner for the back end of the scoring. I think I have a bit more faith in State College’s depth, especially given their recent success, but I expect this one to be a nail bitter on race day.

District 1

A (1 Team)

1. Jenkintown

2. Christopher Dock

Jenkintown is absolutely rolling right now. They won the district meet in convincingly fashion last year, bring back most of their core and added a couple freshmen with talent. If we are being honest, this team is likely looking past districts and hoping to improve on their state finish from a year ago. I think this team is really strong and am excited to see them hit the postseason.

AA (1 Team)

1. Pope John Paul

2. HG Prep

I don’t know what to make of this district. I really don’t. On the one hand, Pope John Paul seems like an easy pick. They return all of their key runners from a year ago, they’ve tested themselves at big meets like Foundation and they held their own against some strong teams. That being said, the specter of Holy Ghost still looms. They are the defending champions and, even though graduation depleted their roster, they have a history of contending on the big stage. For now, PJP is a clear favorite, but I’ll be watching closely to see if Prep can develop a bit more firepower out front. I liked their run at Safari, but they still have some work to do to catch up.

AAA (5 Teams)

1. CR North

2. Spring Ford

3. DT West

4. Henderson

5. Boyertown

6. Owen J Roberts

7. CB West

8. Shanahan

9. CB East

10. North Penn

11. Penncrest

12. Unionville

13. Oxford

14. Phoenixville

15. Great Valley

Realistically, there is a long list of teams that could make it to states and an even longer list of teams that can break into the top 10. Being top 10 in District One should be a goal to be proud of for a lot of teams. It’s really hard, especially this year. I listed out 15 teams and still left out some programs with talent. I’ll try to share as much insight as I can here before I end the post.

For the sake of efficiency, I’m going to attack this in tiers.

The Super Powers: CR North, DT West, Henderson

CR North, DT West and Henderson have established themselves as programs we just expect to punch tickets to states. They’ve all won state titles in the past five years, they’ve each made a big run when they were counted out and, so far this season, they’ve each shown me enough to be confident they will make it to states. CRN is probably my pick to win the thing right now (although I am excited to watch Seneca Valley next weekend). So basically my reasoning for these teams is, look at the names on the jersey.

The Pioneer Pioneers: Spring Ford, Boyertown, Owen J Roberts

Three teams from the Pioneer League have made my top 6 overall. Their league championship should tell us a lot about which direction each team is trending. As I mentioned in my District 1 by the numbers post, this league hasn’t had a single state qualifying team since 2008 so having three seems like a real long shot. However, Spring Ford and Boyertown have been excellent this year and Owen J has the prototypical formula for a 5^th place team in the district. Boyertown is the team to watch. They slipped just a bit at Paul Short and watched a couple teams shoot past them. I want to see how they react to this defeat and if they rally back past Spring Ford at leagues.

The Almost Theres: CB West, North Penn

I think these guys are ascending. They both have a history of sticking their nose in it at districts and CB West has made states each of the past three seasons. I bet against them seemingly every year and seemingly every year they prove me wrong. That being said, I just think these teams project to be near misses. However, they are improving from week to week, having strong front running and just need a step up performance to become really dangerous. Keep an eye on the back half of their varsity to close out the season.

The Something to Proves: Shanahan, CB East

I like both of these teams rosters, but I have found it hard to jump all in on either squad. Shanahan has two sub 16 guys and a potential district champion. However, I’m not ready to throw them in my top 5. If Logan Yoquinto is their #5 guy at districts, I think this team can do big things. As for CB East, I feel like they have to prove that their young core is ready to handle the pressure of districts. They were a hot team early in the season a year ago, but didn’t end up with any state qualifiers when the clock stopped at Lehigh. This year, they’ve got an arguably better team, but the district may be better as well.

The Maybe … I Just Haven’t Seen Enoughs: Unionville, Penncrest

Unionville has gotten some buzz and they did beat a Smuckerless Henderson at Oberod, but I haven’t seen enough big races from this team to have any sort of feel for them. They do have a dynamite 1-2 punch in Conway and Walker (I think they are two top 15 types in the district if things break right) and an improving pack that could make noise. Did you see their track results from last night? 4 guys at 10:05 or faster for 3200 and another at 10:12. But I don’t have enough data to feel comfortable with them anywhere higher than 10^th. Penncrest is a bit more of a known commodity, but I still need to study their 4-5 a bit more. Are they deep enough to make a run at states? Are they too young? Their top 3 seems strong, but they didn’t race at Carlisle or Paul Short or Tennent or Foundation. That makes it tricky for me to have a great read.

The Etrain’s Favs: Oxford, Great Valley, Phoenixville

The title speaks for itself. I’m rooting for these teams. They each have intriguing storylines. Great Valley has a crazy pack. Phoenixville has a super soph and races 4 on 5. Oxford is a Cinderella with a chance to turn heads. I’m also excited to watch WC East battle over the final weeks of the season, particularly at Ches-monts. CR South and Lower Merion could be fun too. And Pennsbury. Don’t forget about Pennsbury. Man, District One is crowded.