By
Jarrett Felix
3,000m
Heat 1
Ben
Bumgarner, Waynesburg Central
Nathan
Henderson, JP McCaskey
Rusty
Kujdych, Neshaminy
Connor
McMenamin, Souderton
Seth
Slavin, Pleasant Valley
Zach
Lefever, Ephrata
Will
Griffen, Cheltenahm
Aaron
Pfeil, South Fayette
Noah
Beveridge, Butler
Sean
Rahill, William Tennent
Avery
Lederer, Penncrest
Matt
Scarpill, CB South
The 800
will be a lot of fun. It’s a wild race with lots of heats that will make things
interesting throughout. But I think the 3k will end up the best race of the
day. It’s only a 12 man field so, obviously, everyone is very much in play for
a medal. And there’s a lot of talented guys at the front.
I know
it doesn’t have anyone named “Affolder” or “Hoey”, but look at the XC
credentials from these guys. Bumgarner is a state champ and top 20 in the
region guy. Henderson, Kujdych, McMenamin, Lefever and Beveridge are top 10
finishers from this past AAA XC state championship. Aaron Pfeil is a AA XC
Medalist. Slavin is a AAA XC Medalist and District champ. Then Griffen, Rahill,
Lederer and Scarpill are all sub 16 guys who placed top 50 at states.
I’d
have to go back and revisit all the heats, but my guess is we have never had a
3k state championship that featured exclusively top 50 finishers from the XC
state championship from the previous fall. That’s just fantastic top to bottom
depth. And, oh yeah, no doublers in this event. Only Griffen even has an event after this one, so these guys will be
very focused.
The
other thing that’s cool about this field? These guys all like to go fast. We
don’t have kickers in this bunch. Nate Henderson knows how to push the middle
section of a race and keep it fast. Same goes for Ben Bumgarner who used that
strategy to break Zach Skolnekovich in XC. Rusty Kujdych is a front runner,
having already been at the front of a 3k field at states just last year.
Everyone down to Scarpill won’t be afraid to get in the front pack and mix it
up.
I will
say that I always hesitate to put a lot of stock in guys who have already run a
lot of 3ks on the season or a lot of 3ks in a row. For example, Aaron Pfeil ran
a phenomenal solo 8:52 state qualifier at TSTCA. But this will be his 3rd
3k in a row so there’s a chance for a let down due to tired legs in a grueling
event. Of course if you want to argue that putting Pfeil in his first truly
competitive 3k in 2 weeks could mean a drop into the 8:40s, I would tell you
that’s a great point too. I think Rahill is also on a big 3k racing streak of 3
or so weeks so we will see how much fire he has left.
One
other small concern I have: when was Kujdych’s last open race? I feel like it’s
been a while. He dropped out of MoCs but that may have been to try and help
Neshaminy qualify in the 4x8. I hope he’s healthy and ready to roll because I
think he will play a big role in deciding how this one plays out.
Prediction
Ultimately,
I think this race will come down to three potential winners: Nate Henderson,
Ben Bumgarner and Connor McMenamin. Nate Henderson should be the favorite. He’s
been excellent in his few races this year, is running better than he did this
time last year when he finished a tight 3rd, and had an absolutely
monster XC season. That being said, I think both Bumgarner and McMenamin have
real shots to defeat him. Keep in mind C Mac just ran 8:48 to win big at MoCs
and almost break 2012 state champ Dustin Wilson’s meet record. And Ben
Bumgarner is already a state champ.
He’s got chops.
The
wild cards are Kujdych, Beveridge and Lefever. I think all of these guys are
really good. Lefever clearly has a clutch gene. He medaled this past spring in
that hot state 3200 ahead of Henderson and finished 4th at XC States
with a big kick to get ahead of Beveridge and McMenamin. He matched up head to
head with Henderson already and was bested, but he still ran a fantastic 8:51.
Kujdych’s skills are undeniable. He’s run low 9:20s for 32 as a sophomore, has
experience and, unlike the other top names, ran his seed time in January.
Beveridge’s stretch run to XC was incredible and I’m sure he can run faster
than his early season 8:56, but he’s got something to prove after a third in
the mile at TSTCA. Plus a junior hasn’t won the 3k at states in the past
decade+, a stat that works against Kujdych as well.
I’m
feeling what some may consider an upset here, in a sprint finish. I think
Bumgarner by a nose over Henderson. I just like the way this kid runs at the
state meet and, after he made me look good at XC states, I’m gonna ride with
him again this winter season.
1.
Ben
Bumgarner 8:33.16
2.
Nate
Henderson 8:33.43
3.
Zach
Lefever 8:38.88
4.
Connor
McMenamin 8:41.14
5.
Rusty
Kujdych 8:44.50
6.
Noah
Beveridge 8:47.93
7.
Seth
Slavin 8:48.05
8.
Will
Griffen 8:51.09
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