2017 Indoor State Predictions: Mile

By Jarrett Felix

Mile

Heat 1

Joseph Cardie, Springfield (Delco)

Colin Mihalak, Coatesville

Sam Owori, Seneca Valley

Sean Brown, Roman Catholic

Callahan Lennon, HG Prep

Brendan O’Toole, North Penn

Jacob Shulte, Bishop McCourt

Jarrett Boyd, Freedom

Kevin Dineen, HG Prep

Thomas Matsumura, Southern Lehigh

As I’ve said before, there is usually a medal contender that comes out of the slower section of the mile. Last year we had two medalist come out of this section. But the pace has to get out honest enough in this heat to make things work. Not sure who the guy to do the job in this section will be, but I’d imagine someone will step up in the role given some of the resumes of these guys historically.

The 4x8 comes before the mile in the order of events so we might see Brendan O’Toole and Sam Owori doubling in this section. If memory serves, no one attempted the 4x8-mile double last indoor state meet, so it’s unclear exactly how hard/easy it is to go for this double. Both of these guys are big talents (I like Owori as a sleeper), but if they run the 4x8 beforehand, my gut says there won’t be enough time to double back into medal contention.

That leaves my top two on paper as Colin Mihalak and Sean Brown. Mihalak had an awesome race at Meet of Champs and was a breakthrough performer this XC season. Brown is starting to get seasoned as a state level competitor and he’s a very talented miler. He had his best race of the season at meet of champs as well. He has nice 800 wheels and could be a gamer on the last lap under the right circumstances.

Heat 2

Noah Affolder, Carlisle

Sam Affolder, Carlisle

Tristan Forsythe, Winchester Thurston

Evan Addison, LaSalle

Brandon Hontz, WC Rustin

Liam Conway, Owen J Roberts

James Abrahams, Haverford

Eric Kennedy, Kiski

Sam Snodgrass, South Fayette

Josh Higgins, Cumberland Valley

The Affolder boys come in as heavy favorites in this one. Noah cruised to a 4:07 victory at the Millrose Games and his brother Sam ran a blazing fast 4:13 in the same race. The top two challengers on paper, Josh Hoey and Nick Dahl, both scratched out of the event in favor of other focuses. So, in theory, this is the Affolder boys race to lose. They could be in store for a 1-2 finish just as the Hoey boys were a season ago and their team title hopes hinge on a big performance here.

It’s worth noting that Carlisle does have a 4x8 entered as well. It’s unclear whether both guys will be involved in the 4x8. And will they both be running all out to try and get the win in that event or just grab points? Carlisle is the most compelling mystery of the bunch this weekend. If I have to guess, I’m saying Noah will run 4x8-Mile-8-DMR (seems absurd, especially given his injury concerns he mentions, but that’s what these entries look like) and Sam will run 4x8-Mile-DMR-4x4. Wow. That’s a busy schedule.

Assuming this is right (it’s probably not, but whatever it’s the best guess I have right now), the mile will be the second event for each of these Carlisle boys. So they will at least be a little tired. That opens the door for a possible upset if somebody has a great day. The biggest challengers in my mind are Tristan Forsythe, Evan Addison and Brandon Hontz.

I’m already on record as saying I think Addison is having a fantastic year and I put him in the Coyle category at this stage. He could be on the 4x8, but I don’t think they run him in this race if he’s going in tired. They’d just save him for the DMR. Addison had a big win at Ocean Breeze this season, he’s had an 8:46 3k and he’s split in the 1:55 range outdoors. Plus, he’s got a little something extra to prove after his DNF at XC States.

Forsythe has medaled in this event before. He’s run 4:17 for the full mile and he was a top 5 runner in A during XC. At Millrose, he went head to head with the Affolders and was left behind Sam by 4 seconds and Noah by 10. However he will have a freshness advantage this time around that he didn’t have last time.

I really like the way Hontz has raced this year. He hasn’t necessarily dropped any fast times (4:23 is solid, but it’s a long way off Noah and Sam’s PRs), but I think if he goes out and races like he did all season, he will get a big PR and be in the mix out front. I could definitely see him running around 4:17 in this event and posting a clutch performance. In addition, he’s got something to prove after being bounced in the prelims of his first state performance last spring.

Let’s take a look at the rest of the hot heat as they are all medal contenders in their own right.

Liam Conway is a 4:15-1:54 guy who has posted nice marks in limited races this year. I believe he is coming back from an injury at the end of XC which makes me a little nervous to jump on the bandwagon. But it’s hard to deny this junior is a heck of a talent with great speed. He’s still on the hunt for his first state medal. This would be a big moment for him to prove he has that clutch factor.

Eric Kennedy is a proven miler, having run medal worthy times in the 1600 during the spring. He ran 4:23 in a fast race at Spire to get this hot heat spot, but I believe this will be his first trip to the indoor state championship. He’s got the talent, he’s a senior and he is peaking at the right time for the second straight season so he’s tough to count out.

Sam Snodgrass is really heating up. He won at the TSTCA meet against a really strong western field and then followed it with a fantastic run on South Fayette’s winning DMR. He’s a junior in his first major track championship appearance. However, in his two most recent trips to XC states, he’s finished in the top 12 in AA two years in a row.

James Abrahams ran a strong 4:23 in pursuit of Addison at Ocean Breeze and holds 4:20-1:56 type PRs from last spring. The Haverford Senior was excellent during XC, dipping under 15:50 in the 5k. However, he has not raced a ton this indoor season. That could make him fresh or could mean his focus is more toward outdoors. Josh Higgins rounds out the hot heat thanks to his big performance on this exact track last Thursday. The senior has good 800 speed and also was sub 16 in XC so he has the chops to perform well. But how will he handle the pressure of the hot heat?

Prediction

There’s too much up in the air around the 4x8 for me to avoid a chalk pick. I do think the pace won’t be anything crazy considering, regardless of their 4x8 participation, the Affolders will have a busy schedule ahead of them. That opens the door for some kickers to make a late play for a medal. A lot of these guys can kick, great 800 speed almost across the board, so sorting out the 3-8 spots could end up being quite fun.

Ultimately, I think the Affolders will lock up the 1-2, but I think Addison makes it interesting. I think it’s going to be a redemption performance from him after XC states. Fingers crossed. I have Forsythe at 5^th, but he ran a very smart race given the fast pace at Millrose. If this race is faster than I think, keep an eye out for him picking guys off at the end.

1.      Noah Affolder 4:12.77

2.      Sam Affolder 4:16.00

3.      Evan Addison 4:16.22

4.      Brandon Hontz 4:17.31

5.      Tristan Forsythe 4:17.96

6.      Sam Snodgrass 4:22.59

7.      Liam Conway 4:23.48

8.      Colin Mihalak 4:24.60