2017 Indoor State Predictions: DMR

DMR

Heat 1 (Etrain Projected Line-Ups)

Carlisle – Sam Affolder, Jared Griffie, Isaac Kole, Noah Affolder

Germantown Friends – Colin Riley, Eli Schwemler, Jonnie Plass, Nick Dahl

Cardinal O’Hara – Gavin Inglis, Obinna Iherjirka, Patrick James, Ryan James

CB West – Ben Bunch, Carter Laatsch, Alec Hofer, Brian Mass

CR North – Bryan Keller, Mike Welde, Sam Early, Ryan Campbell

WC Henderson – Jack Downing, Myles Cooper, Josh Richard, Spencer Smucker

State College – Nick Feffer, Joey Feffer, Chris DiPerna, Owen Wing

LaSalle – Brendan Price, Peter Nelson, Mac Costinis, Evan Addison

Lower Merion – Theodore Neckowicz, Romaine Rhoden, Diarmid Rae, Matt D’Aquila

DT West – Ryan Barton, Jared McIntire, Chase Seymanyk, Shaun Bullock

WC Rustin – Edward Harpstead, Vincent Giordano, Billy Covert, Brandon Hontz

Cheltenham – Andrew Crosby, Darren Giles, Asad Grant, Will Griffen

Again, similar to the 4x8, these are only my projected line ups. I’m just working off gut instincts and milesplit times so don’t take those line ups as fact.

People have been getting on me about looking for other teams that can steal this title from Carlisle. But, hey, I think it’s in play. If GFS went completely fresh for this relay, I’d feel really good about picking them to win against a tired Carlisle team. They could be seeing Noah on his 4^th race of that night on that anchor leg and a fresh Dahl could run 4:10 or faster to make Noah work very, very hard. But GFS will have the 4x8 in their legs so that makes things tougher.

I think O’Hara will go fresh for this relay, but they are entered in the 4x8 so no guarantees they actually will. If they go fresh, this team is a very realistic threat for a three-peat against some other tired teams. Especially if Gavin Inglis proves he can pick up where livestream poster boy Rob Morro left off in the 1200 position.

But Carlisle’s biggest competition may come from the team that gave them trouble during cross country: Council Rock North. I think Bryan Keller is a near perfect 1200 leg. I think he could have a really impressive showing. They have one of the best 400 runners in the entire state in Welde. Early can run under 2 minutes and then Ryan Campbell could be this year’s Ryan James and bring home the surprise title. It would take a lead, but there’s a reasonable set of events to get them that lead going into the anchor leg.

LaSalle has a ton of talent, plus an anchor leg with serious chops. If LaSalle gets Evan Addison the baton with a chance for a rematch against a tired Affolder (either one), maybe he is able to turn the tables on the superstar. Along with LaSalle, WC Henderson is one of the most successful DMR programs in the state’s history and they will put out an experienced line-up that medaled last year.  

I really like WC Rustin’s team. They’ve won their last two heats going away with big anchor legs from Hontz. Put them in a race with ideal competition and give Hontz a chance to chase or, at least, run with competition, and they could have a massive season best performance. They will have the added incentive of taking on DT West and WC Henderson, the two teams that made it to states in XC after Rustin bested them at Ches-monts.

Not sure what State College will have in the tank. They’ve got the talent and either Feffer or Wing would be a strong 1200 runner to set this team up well. But I think their focus will be on the 4x8 with the DMR as more of a “bonus” so I’m not sure I see them as true title contenders. Unless they have a heartbreaking result in the 4x8 and find a little extra fire. Then it’s game on in front of the hometown crowd.

Predictions

At the end of a long, mentally and physically exhausting meet, I like teams that have fresh, focused legs. If Carlisle runs all their guys in the 4x8, the open events they are entered in and then the DMR and then wins the DMR? It will be the most impressive set of racing I’ve ever seen. This relay will determine if the Affolders are human or not basically. We found out Brehm was, in fact, not a robot two years ago at outdoor states. But Noah and Sam may have fixed the glitches.

I’m looking at teams like Lower Merion (like this squad a lot with a team centric mentality), DT West, CR North, and Henderson for strong medal spots. Then I kind of fill in based on projected anchor legs. A lot of the DMR comes down to the anchor certainly, but you need other guys to set it up. Especially if your anchor is already feeling tired and isn’t motivated to go out on a herculean chase.

One of our commenters brought up a good point about Carlisle’s relay. They may anchor Sam and put Noah on the lead off to try and make his busy schedule a bit more manageable. Sam should have a decent amount more in the tank than Noah, especially if he isn’t on the 4x8. And honestly, they could go with Kole-Wisner-either Affolder and potentially win this thing. That makes them hard to pick against.

As you guys probably know by now, I like to have fun with predictions. It’s just who I am. So I’m not going to sit back and let my last set of predictions be predictable. Of course, if you’ve been reading my posts this year you probably did, in fact, predict this was coming.

1.      Germantown Friends 10:19.42

2.      CR North 10:21.49

3.      Carlisle 10:22.90

4.      O’Hara 10:24.13

5.      LaSalle 10:30.09

6.      WC Rustin 10:34.67

7.      WC Henderson 10:35.81

8.      Lower Merion 10:36.45