2017 Indoor State Predictions: 4x800m

4x800m

Heat 1 (Etrain Projected Line-Ups)

Penn Wood – Dennis Manyeah, Todd Jackson, Tyshaun Truitt, Inerji SIrleof,

Seneca Valley – Luke Bellack, Sam Owori, Seth Ketler, Alex Dixon

O’Hara – Derek Sacks, Jack Becker, Eddie Issertell, Tom McNicholas

North Penn – Elgin Horton, Dan Santiago, Tariq Baines, Brendan O’Toole

CR South – Evan Kutney, Collin Ochs, Thayne George, Andrew Zawodniak

Bishop Shanahan – Jonah Hoey, Jonathan McGrory, Bradley Ingraham, Jack Ettien

Radnor – Doug Rosin, Frank Brown, Jack Bell, Jordan Lian

Bensalem – Aqeel Bacchus, Isaiah Thomas, Tommy Brewer, Kevin Rodriguez

Mount Lebanon – Cameron Potts, Bryce Brandenstein, Jack Cameron, Nate Everhardt

Just to reiterate, the line-ups posted above are completely speculatory. Just like my predicted scratches, odds are they won’t be 100% accurate.

A couple of things to remember here quickly. Shanahan had two sub 2 guys this year in Josh Hoey and Logan Yoquinto which could turn this squad into a contender. However, I believe Yoquinto got hurt at the Last Chance Meet and I think Hoey will go fresh in the open 8. O’Hara has a really strong team on paper, but I’m in the camp that believes they will save up for the DMR and run a “B” squad. They ran both relays hard last year though and it worked out just fine. North Penn’s Brendan O’Toole is entered in the mile so, if they have a suitable replacement, they may give O’Toole the chance to run fresh. Same goes for Sam Owori on Seneca Valley’s squad. Lastly, Bensalem’s Aqeel Bacchus and Radnor’s Peter Cooke are both in the open 800 later in this meet. Cooke is a very legitimate medal contender so my guess is he doesn’t run this relay, but there is a chance he does.

In my opinion it seems incredibly likely one of these teams gets a medal. The odds of none of the top 8 teams blowing up is slim. The top contenders in my eyes are Seneca Valley, North Penn and CR South. I’m a huge fan of this CR South team. I think they could come close to 8 flat on a perfect day. And did you see that 3:26 4x4 they dropped at Lehigh? That’s pure speed right there.

North Penn is a storied program with more 4x8 state titles than I have track blogs (and that’s saying something). And Seneca Valley’s last 12 months have been incredible. Do not doubt this team. SV hasn’t faced the level of competition they will in this meet yet this season which, I think, is a good thing. They can cut big time off their 8:09 seed.

Penn Wood will be a wild card here, led by Dennis Manyeah’s presence. He typically leads off and could set them up with a nice lead or, at the very least, great position. And, hey, don’t sleep on Mount Lebanon. Although they come in as the last seed, I actually really like this team. They could surprise with their first opportunity on a real fast track. I’d be curious when the last time Lebo even had a relay compete at indoor states was. I can’t remember any time even remotely recently. Would be a cool story to see Lebo medal.

Heat 2 (Etrain Projected Line-Ups)

Germantown Friends - Nick Dahl, Dan Stassen Colin Riley, Jonnie Plass

Pennsbury – Eric Kersten, Javier Linares, Aidan Sauer, Jed Scratchard

State College – Owen Wing, Chris Diperna, Joey Feffer, Nick Feffer

Carlisle – Sam Affolder, Isaac Kole, Jack Wisner, Noah Affolder

CB West – Luke Fehrman, Tegan Fortna, Alec Hofer, Jake Claricurzio

LaSalle – Brendan Price, Mac Costonis, Luke Ullmann, Dan Boyle

CB East – Marc Motter, David Endres, John Brophy, Ata Shahideh

Abington – Cameron Mitchell, Tim Smith, Josh Coleman, Aaron Sooknan

This is going to be an incredibly compelling race. You know how just like two seconds ago I said the winner of the slow heat is almost guaranteed to get a medal because somebody has to blow up out of the 8 in the fast heat? Well who the heck is going to blow up? All these teams are phenomenal. Even LaSalle without Evan Addison (a speculatory prediction) has 4 very capable legs. Abington’s seed time comes from all the way back in December, but this is a program that is hard to doubt given their recent success. It’s pretty reasonable to see them as a sub 8 kind of team.

I’ll be watching which teams get out of traffic early. That’s going to be huge. State College had a 2:06 lead off at Millrose, but that kid is a 2:01 guy who just needed a little extra big race seasoning. Make one small order change and this team is right there with the rest of the state (Owen Wing was their lead off last year and is incredibly experienced in this spot). Of course GFS’s Nick Dahl lost a shoe at Millrose and ran just 1:59. Take 5 or so seconds off that relay team’s time and they are out of traffic and sub 7:50.

Eric Kersten has led off state championship squads in the past and Marc Motter, assuming CB East gives him the stick first, is a 1:57 man with a big kick and a lot of heart. I’m not positive what CB West will do with their line-up, but they seem to have like 6 sub 2 guys every year, so I think they know what they are doing. I just learn to sit back and watch with those guys.

And of course Carlisle. If they end up leading off Sam Affolder, I’m not sure anybody else can beat him who doesn’t share a roof with him. A Dahl-Affolder match up would be a ton of fun though.

Predictions

As usual, the fate of this race rests with Carlisle. I think they need both Affolders to win. Leave one off, you could have a 10+ second swing and fall down towards merely borderline medalists. I think some of these relay rosters are fantastic. Anybody who has an off day is very vulnerable.

It’s worth noting that Carlisle’s projected 3-4 guys Isaac Kole and Jack Wisner are both capable of sub 2 splits, maybe even more. Those guys are excellent runners. Carlisle ran low 7:50s in the 4x8 last spring long before the New Yorkers showed up, so you have to give credit where credit is due. In theory, Carlisle could be in record territory in an all-out effort, but they won’t do that in all likelihood considering their schedule (also the state record in the 4x8 is really good, sitting at 7:45.0).

I like GFS’s team. I think they’ve definitely got a chance to win this. Not a lot of weakness on the roster, a superstar in Dahl and an up and comer in Jonnie Plass. But for whatever reason, I feel like this will come down to State College and Pennsbury (along with Carlisle, assuming it’s their full “A” team). Those two programs are excellent 4x8 schools and have combined for the last 3 indoor state titles. Why not make it four?

Don’t sleep on CB West. Jake Claricurzio can anchor this thing in 1:53. He’s a true gamer who has some experience anchoring state title caliber relays from his past two seasons.

My dream for this race is Dahl-Affolder-Feffer-Claricurzio all getting the stick together and dropping some monster anchor splits. I’d love to see a 1:52 kind of carry out of one of those dudes.

1.      Carlisle 7:48.62

2.      State College 7:51.11

3.      Germantown Friends 7:52.02

4.      CB West 7:54.51

5.      Pennsbury 7:55.16

6.      CB East 7:57.90

7.      Seneca Valley 8:03.38

8.      CR South 8:04.20

If Carlisle doesn’t run their full “A” team, this whole race dynamic changes. I think that’s possible for sure and I wish I knew what the official plan was. But for now, I’ll guess based on my hunch.