2017 Indoor State Predictions: 800m

By Jarrett Felix

800m

Heat 1

Isaiah Bailey, Penn Hills

Matt Kraus, William Tennent

Frankie King, Greensburg Salem

Dave Whitfield, Bonner

Robert Dupell, St. Joe’s Prep

Derin Klick, Lebanon

Aqeel Bacchus, Bensalem

Dylan Binda, Greensburg Salem

I think this heat is really good. It’s an excellent set up for a slow heat. You have some guys who I think will get out hard and not be afraid to run fast. And you have talent. A ton of talent. Bailey, Whitfield and Klick have PRs of 1:54, 1:53 and 1:53 from last outdoor season. Dupell has run 1:22 for 600 meters. And Matt Kraus is the reigning Meet of Champs champion against a loaded field.

I don’t usually do things like this but I can almost guarantee you a medalist is coming out of this heat. I’ve probably just jinxed this whole heat so my apologies. The big question is, who will come up with the win? I like Bailey. He’s got some strong wins as of late and he’s assembled a nice level of consistency lately. But my pick is Derin Klick of Lebanon. I really like what I saw from him last year at the state meet during outdoors. Plus I think in some random post a while back I outlined him as a possible medalist in this exact scenario.

So why not hold true to my natural intuition from some time I can’t remember?

Heat 2

Collin Ebling, Pottsville

Hudson Delisle, Quakertown

Luke Everidge, CD East

Christopher Cameron, Wissahickon

Liam Conway, Owen J Roberts

Jed Scratchard, Pennsbury

Derek Jones, Cathedral Prep

Kamil Jihad, Neumann Goretti

This will be another incredibly exciting “slow” heat. I expect it will be quick, although I can’t pin point exactly who will be bold enough to help keep things fast. But there’s plenty of talent here to push each other. I think Jihad will be perfect for this spot. Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think the Neumann Goretti junior has lost an 800 heat yet this year. Sure, in the overall standings he’s been defeated (most notably at MoCs), but he’s a really good racer. If these guys can give him good push, things don’t get too crowded and he has a fast close, Jihad could run 1:53.

I’m in the Chris Cameron fan club from Wissahickon, even though they are my ex-rivals. I could see him running a nice time. Hudson Delisle is another guy who could pop a big time. He’s got great experience and watched his now graduated teammate Brett Wolfinger grab a medal in this event last year. Luke Everidge hasn’t raced a ton this year, but when he has, he’s been phenomenal.

Jed Scratchard and Liam Conway are both very talented guys, but they will likely both be doubling. So we will see how much they have in the tank.

Heat 3

Noah Affolder, Carlisle

Ryan Thrush, Brookville

Nick Wagner, Penn Trafford

Joe Cullen, Wyomissing

Jake Claricurzio, CB West

Peter Cooke, Radnor

Matt Eissler, Pennridge

While I love the first two heats on paper, I don’t have as strong of emotions for this heat. I’m assuming Josh Hoey will not be featured on the Bishop Shanahan 4x8, but even still we have at least 3 guys scheduled to double in Noah Affolder (who may be on his third race of the day), Ryan Thrush and Jake Claricurzio. Plus Peter Cooke of Radnor might try the 4x8 to help his teammates as well.  You also have a sophomore in this heat, Matt Eissler of Pennridge. Eissler is super talented, very fast and has raced a lot of top competitors this year. But he’s still just a sophomore on the big stage. And history says that only a small percentage of sophomores medal at states (side note: I made a post about this a few weeks back, I’ll link it up if someone is interested).

Thrush’s 4-8 double is, in my opinion, incredibly difficult verging on impossible. If he runs under 1:55, I’ll be super impressed. Especially if he’s already won a 400 meter state title (possible). Noah could be tripling here! Tripling! If he runs on the 4x8, I doubt he will be able to just jog a leg against GFS, Pennsbury, State College and CB West. The mile won’t be a walk in the park (although maybe 4:12 for him is walking-he’s really good). I don’t have super high expectations for the self-admitted slightly injured Carlisle senior.

In other words, this is Hoey’s race to win. He ran 1:54.50 back on January 7^th. He’s run 4:09 for the mile. He will likely be fresh. Only Nick Wagner is within 2 seconds of his seed when comparing fresh competitors.

Pete Cooke had a real nice race at this meet last year. He hasn’t quite matched the 800 performance he had at Kevin Dare in 2017, but I like the way he races. Nick Wagner is a super talented guy who ran 1:53 two years ago in the summer. He’s been among the state leaders in this event each of the last three seasons and finished 8^th last year. But here’s arguably the biggest sleeper for the win in the meet: Joe Cullen. He ran a 1:56 at Yale, picking up a dominant win in his heat. He split 1:54 at states last year as a sophomore and took his game up a couple notches during XC from 10^th to 11^th grade. I’m not sure he’s ready for this stage, but if he is I could see 1:53 for him.

Prediction

Madness. I think this race could be won from the slow heat. The race may honestly come down to Nick Wagner and whether or not he wants to get the pace out hard. Otherwise Josh Hoey will have to be the one to set the pace as I can’t imagine a tired Noah Affolder or Ryan Thrush will be ready to take this out in 54 seconds. Does Hoey want to try and lead wire to wire? That doesn’t strike me as his style, but I think he’s smart enough to not let the pace completely drag.

And if I had to guess, somebody from the slower heats will run at least 1:54 which only 3 dudes have done so far this year. The last slow heat winner came in 2010 when Luke Lefebure won heat 2 and knocked off defending state champion Tom Mallon (who was doubling off the mile that season).

No clue what to do with Noah Affolder. I respect the guys talent, but if he’s on that 4x8 and the mile and still has a DMR to go? I’m not sure how this race plays out. Out of respect (and the outside chance he is not on the team’s 4x8), I’m putting him in the medals. But there’s a world where some slow heat guys make him sweat.

Ultimately, I’m going to have to pick some upsets during these predictions. I won’t be able to sleep at night if I don’t. And I’m predicting a winner comes out of the slow heat this year in a surprise turn. It’s just a gut feeling I’ve been getting watch the 800 unfold this year. And I’m doing a trust fall with my gut right here.

1.      Kamil Jihad 1:53.31

2.      Josh Hoey 1:53.67

3.      Joe Cullen 1:54.38

4.      Noah Affolder 1:54.76

5.      Chris Cameron 1:54.82

6.      Hudson Delisle 1:55.11

7.      Peter Cooke 1:55.56

8.      Derin Klick 1:55.82