If You Don't Know Now You Know

Indoors is an exciting season (and we still aren't done!) but for the brief window between indoor states and my upcoming nationals preview (Monday after entries are officially closed) I figured I would explore some sleeper teams for this coming outdoor season with you kids. Also be on the lookout for some NCAA related shenanigans soon, just need to brainstorm with my cohorts. So without further ado, here are some tooth fairy quality sleepers.

1. Carlisle
Ok so in the traditional sense of the word, these guys probably aren't quite "sleepers"when they have Zach Brehm and emerging star Matt Wisner on the roster, but we didn't see any real relay running or team action this indoors from these team, but I'd imagine that's all changing soon. The DMR this team has on paper is dangerous with Brehm and Wisner combining for sick end legs and someone like DeAngelo (strong XC season, solid 800m running last year) could be more than sufficient at his leg. Once DMR season is over (i.e. Post Penn Relays) the Carlisle 4x8 will be dangerous as well. They are defending champs if memory serves and have two guys 1:54 or faster, something that I don't think any other team in the state can boast at this stage in the game. Carlisle's school record is 7:44 from the mythical 2009 4x8 race (their 7:44 got them 7th that day) so they know how to put together a relay. 

Of course Wisner and Brehm's individual medal potential keeps things interesting and a little complicated, but perhaps even more worth watching.

2. Winchester Thurston
Here's the thing, at the end of cross, WT morphed into one of the best A schools in state history. They peaked beautifully and guys came back from injury at the perfect time. Although small schools usually are quiet during indoors, WT was active, showing strong 3k performances from a variety of performers. Littman, Hay and Forsythe have shown signs of promise already at a young age. Landin Delaney was a beast last track season and is defending champ from the loaded D7 championship a year ago. And then of course is Will Loevner. Will finished in the top 5 at A states in cross with a fantastic 16:23 and followed it in cross breaking 8:50 a couple times in the 3k. He was 3rd outdoors last year in the 32 and after barely being sneaked out by 3 guys for the last medal spot, the Loev bug could be in for a big season.

3. Altoona
I touched on these guys briefly in the recaps but I will reiterate here. Altoona is a strong program that has produced a slew of strong times and performances, but somehow we haven't seen them recently in the outdoor state finals in the 4x8. With Foust coming off a breakthrough 1:56 and George coming off his own breakthrough season, this team could really make noise. Also keep on eye on Jerrod Sunderland. He's more of a distance type, but he's a gutsy racer who likely could deliver in a variety of situations.

4. Abington 
I was around for the 2008-2011 Abington stretch and it was crazy. It took them a little bit of time to really get things cooking but when they hit their stride (2010-2011) they were absurdly good at 400 and 800. This team isn't quite as good as those squads, but they are rapidly ascending. 

5. Cedar Crest
6. JP McCaskey
Cedar Crest is historically masters of the 4x8 and was one of the primary teams robbed in the joke that was 4x8 qualifying this season. They ran an awesome race with JP McCaskey at F&M and both teams look like they have major potential to drop time this spring. McCaskey had a strong XC season, bolstered by the emergence of Nate Henderson and their excellent top 4 on the trails should translate well to the oval. Cedar Crest was in the state finals a year ago and, although they lost their best leg at 1:55, they have the experience and program history to be back under 8 minutes.

7. Seneca Valley
Last year's D7 4x8 leaders grabbed state medals behind Foster's excellent running a year ago. He's moved on but Benjamin, Quiggle and Kolor are still around and just as talented as ever. Kolor is coming off a 4:19 mile in his first big time state final, holding his own nicely as a junior. Quiggle looked great at TSTCAs and Benjamin is rounding into form well too. Keep an eye on SV this outdoors.

8. Pleasant Valley
Back to back Valleys here as we look at Pleasant Valley next. Khai Samuels exploded this indoor season, throwing down the exclamation point at states in 1:54.99 for his first state medal. Add in Seth Slavin and this team has two dangerous individuals in D11. The D11 story is very up in the air with Emmaus, Whitehall and Easton all fighting to claim top spots individually and in the relays, but pleasant valley shouldn't be overlooked as a contender. Especially if their top 400m runner can jump up in distance to the 8.

9. Tunkhannock
This is quietly one of the best programs around. Tunk is led this year by Jack Tidball, who dropped down around 8:45 in the 3k at states and took home a top 5 spot. In recent years the Tigers (I think? The colors suggest Tigers and Tunkhannock Tigers sounds too good to be true) have put up Reece Ayers (3 top 10 individual finishes in AAA is absurd), a 6th place team in AAA states, a state championship in A and multiple sub 1:55 800m runners in Nole and Damiani. Tidball is looking strong for outdoors where he ran in the 9:20s a year ago. His teammate Jacob Toczko may be on the verge of a breakthrough of his own after his sneaky good 9:03 3k this indoors.

10. Hershey 
Adam Rabon was an indoor state qualifier in the mile, running around 4:31ish. Then Hershey boasts Will Sponaugle and Aiden Demko who were sub 16 during cross. Demko was an individual medalist during cross and Sponaugle was in the low 4:20s last spring individually. This trio should be fun to watch in a loaded D3. I mean seriously, I already mentioned a slew of D3 teams with upside and didn't even mention Cumberland Valley or Hempfield (had a strong indoor campaign and was D3 XC champs!). Regardless, I think the Chocolates have a good chance to hold their own.

11. South Williamsport 
Griff Molino has been absent since his XC state meet victory and near record, but hopefully this outdoors he is going to be returning to center stage. He ran 4:12 and 9:19 last year on the track, fantastic times. Molino v Perretta on the track this spring could be the race of the year. Unless of course we convince Molino, Perretta, Ritz, Brehm, James, Webb, Brophy and McDevitt to throw down against each other at meet of champs in June. Think about it guys!

Anyway, Molino is a stud and his team has been pretty solid as well. They have posted up some solid 4x8s in recent years and Molino's teammate Hunter Crawley is coming off a fantastic XC season that included a state medal. 

As T.O. Says, that's my quarterback. 

I mean get your popcorn ready. Whatever.

12 comments:

  1. Still really curious to find out what kind of shape Brehm is in, I guess we'll find out come indoor nats. Forsythe just ran a ridiculous 4:39 indoor as a frosh, so with development and experience he can be absolutely ridiculous by the end of spring. You put him behind Loevner, and throw in Littman or Hay, and you've got a great relay. With Altoona, it's hard for me to see them as a DMR over a 4x8, but I'd put Sunderland in the mile, and then decide between Foust and George for who goes in the 8 and who goes in the 12. SV, with Quiggle as a 12, and Kolor, anchoring, all you need is two semi-decent legs in the 4 and 8, and you've got a great DMR. Lastly, as dominant as Molino is (also wondering what kind of shape he's in, like Brehm) you have to wonder how far he can carry a whole relay. Sure you have Crawley as a decent leg, but I think South Williamsport just doesn't have enough of a supporting cast behind to make any REAL damage.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. South Williamsport ran 7:58.0 in 2013 and 8:02.0 in 2014. I know neither time is competitive for tops in AAA, but those marks get you right in the hunt for a top spot in AA. I'm not sure how many are still left from those teams, but if they can find a few more seconds to get to 7:55 they will be in gold medal contention perhaps.

      Delete
  2. Carlisle DMR has insane potential and their 4x8 could become a real threat. Definitely could give Pennsbury, Penncrest, and State College a run for their money.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Can Carlisle even get into the Penn Relays DMR? They haven't even run it yet this year and there really aren't many opportunities to do so now. But they've got some serious potential.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Qualifying period goes through April I believe, and there are meets with DMRs early outdoors although admittedly I think most of them are more east coast meets. I think there is one early season relay meet at like cedar cliff or something that has produced results in the past?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Relays can qualify for Penn until April 11. Pennsbury has to be the favorite if they get a qualifier. Sauer should be able to go at least 3:05 and the Snorwah at least 49.0, leadoff guy at States(sorry about forgetting his name)1:58.0 and Webb 4:12. That's 10:04ish which is right with LaSalle and Henderson of the last 2 years.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pennsbury DM could be really sick (Kersten I think was lead off leg? and he's just a soph), those splits aren't even anything too crazy considering their respective PRs ... I just wonder if they will go for it or are happy to stick with the 4x8 (where they have also had a decent amount of success)

      Delete
    2. How much faster can they get in the 4x8? DMR they have a lot of potential (4:13 anchor) and Sauer leadoff. But, Sauer drops a second faster for the 4x8 (1:51). Not a huge overall time drop. Thoughts?

      Delete
    3. If they are going to take the next step in the 4x8 it will have to come from the Kersten/Mulvaney/Yeger so I agree with you. That being said, 1:58-1:55-1:52-1:59 is 7:47ish with tenths and that would simply be their indoor PRs combined with no additional drop (7:47 gets you in the 4x8 COA at Penn).

      However, I want to see PB in the DMR. Like you I see them as having an ideal set of legs to run really fast. They have potential to drop a lot of time, but admittedly they have not really tried to run many DMRs while running a ton of major 4x8s.

      Delete
    4. They should definitely make the final in the 4 x 8, but would have to drop a lot of time to contend for the win. They would be right in the hunt in the DMR. They would most likely give Webb a lead and he's going to be tough to run down.

      Delete
  6. What do you expect the cutoff times to be around this year for the Penn Relays hs mile and 3k and when is the last date you can hit the time to qualify?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Individual race qualifying period is April 4. Probably 4:17 and 8:44.

    ReplyDelete