DMR

etrain: I have a couple main rules in my predictions that I like to abide by. The first is I prefer to shy away from doublers. Look, you can double successfully if you are a strong runner, I have no doubt that's true, but doubling also makes runners into wildcards and when I'm making predictions, I try to stick with guys with upside, not downside. My other rule is the best anchor in the DMR is winning about 95% of time, especially at NCAAs where the thing is a sit and kick frenzy most years.

I hesitate to even consider last year's results since they were run at altitude and affected a ton of people's strength/doubling ability/fast time running ability, but it is probably worth noting that Stanford is the defending champs and they send another really good (and completely fresh) DMR. Penn State is also a compelling story line here, seeing as they have been THE big name team for as long as I can remember but they continue to rock the goose egg for the distance NCAA titles. Maybe this is the year they can finally break through and get the W. Gtown and Oregon are probably the two deepest teams on paper, although Oregon's depth comes more from the longer stuff while Gtown is rocking a ton of mid-distance studs.

I'm guessing somebody gets suckered into the Gtown madness or the PSU legacy, but I'm not buying either's stock. I'm also far from all in on McGorty taking down the other anchors in this group. Nova intrigues me to say the least considering they have an excellent history and I'm guessing the make the swap at anchor to throw Jordy Williamsyz on the anchor with fresh legs. News flash for those who don't know Australians: dude is really f-ing good. He has major wheels and FRESH LEGS. I love that combination.

The hardest thing for me to do will be to pick against my Oregon Ducks (not to be confused with the Philadelphia Eagles). The U of O performs at NCAAs (their distance team got them NCAA titles indoors and outdoors last year with some help from their friends ... this indoors it has to be ALL Distance. No Chandler or Phoebe) and they were runners up last year in the DMR without most of their big name stars. Plus it doesn't feel like too long ago that Galen Rupp won the 5k and came back something like 30 minutes later to anchor the DMR to a gold medal. The best Duck since Rupp is Eddy Ches, who has nearly hit Rupp level dominance as just a sophomore (people can say Ches is old but Rupp was like a 6th year senior). Ches has the filthiest gear switch I've ever seen and his only NCAA loss came on the double from a 10k in a grueling, very quick and non-tactical, 5k against one of the best runners in NCAA history in Lawi Lalang. There is a reason they call him King. But I doubt the U of O supporting cast and seeing as the DMR is really a race for mid-distance guys and not 3k studs, There could be enough of a gap that even Ches can't get the W.

In the end here's my top 5 (I'll put time's down but I mean realistically tactics are going to basically throw these predictions out the window):

1. Villanova 9:31.10
2. Oregon 9:31.55
3 Stanford 9:32.67
4 . Penn State 9:32.99
5. Georgetown 9:34.09

Note: I purposely excluded District 3's Nate McClafferty, New York's Chad Noelle and practically anything to do with the ACC, not because I doubt those teams or their abilities, but simply because I don't want to show support for anything representing my fellow predictors. This is business people.

Although I am really excited to see the potential Chad Noelle vs his former team the Oregon Ducks ripping away their title in a furious finish. That would be fun.

Alex Fox

1) Villanova

2) Stanford

3) Penn State

4) Oklahoma State

5) Oregon

A lot of surprises in this race, as I’m seriously questioning myself looking at those picks. Villanova has a lot of really talented guys who aren’t listed, so I look for them to go all in for the win. Sean McGorty proved his doubters wrong during cross, and he will again anchoring Stanford here. Penn State might be the best team coming in, but they never seem to peak at the right time. OKST’s DMR has been running really well all season, and I just can’t pick against the New York record holder in the 2k. Oregon won’t trot out the big guns for this race, but once again, their depth will be enough for the points as they go for the team title.

I know I have a lot of surprising picks, but I think the biggest surprise of the meet will be Parker Stinson’s retirement from running after he looks in the mirror and says to himself “What am I doing with my life?” 20 years from now, I’m sure he’ll make an excellent bald, fat man.

Caleb Gatchell:
Finally, the DMR, and event I’ve been hyping all year. I think it’s going to be crazy, with all of the top 5 teams in the race when they get the baton on the anchor leg. Ultimately, I don’t think anyone beats Cheserek on that leg, he’s just been untouchable in championship races, unless your name is Lawi Lalang. Fortunately for Ches, nobody in this field is. If Jenkins anchors maybe it’s a little closer, but he’s been darn near untouchable this year as well. Then, I think Penn State and Georgetown will duke it out for 2nd and 3rd, with Robby Creese just getting it in the last 50 meters. In 4th I really like the team out of Arkansas. I think they’ve put a really solid squad together, and I think it will pay off with a 4th place finish. Finally, the defending champs, Stanford, will finish 5th. I haven’t seen enough out of Lefebure and Bartoletti/Coyle to be confident picking them any higher. I’m actually a little nervous about that pick, but I think experience pays off for them. I know Coyle just broke 4 for the first time, but even so, there are some really big names on the 1200 leg.
1: Oregon
2: Penn State
3: Georgetown
4: Arkansas
5: Stanford


Garrett Zatlin:

DMR

5. Duke- 9:30.28

4. Stanford-9:30.14

3. Oregon-9:29.67

2. Penn State-9:29.32

1. Georgetown-9:28.00

Explanation: What? Oregon at third? A lot of you are probably asking yourself if I ever actually looked at any results this winter. But when you sit down with the performance list in front of you and you consider other events, this seems like the logical order. Oregon will have no Jenkins as he will have just completed the 5k. That means the next choice is Gregorek. Now, both the lead-off and the anchor legs will have a mile prelim in their legs before taking on the DMR. That shouldn’t be too big of a problem. But no Jenkins could be a deal breaker for Oregon against completely fresh teams like Georgetown. Speaking of Georgetown, I have been hyping them up all year and now is the time where they will back that hype up (I hope). Cole Williams just ran an outstanding 1k and that should be a good sign for Gtown heading into Nationals. Penn State has continued to surprise us in the DMR year in and year out. Unfortunately, they have also come up short of gold multiple times and I think the same thing will happen again this year. Stanford will take advantage of two PA alum in this race. Coyle will lead off and Lefebure will run the 800. However, this will be Coyle’s first national championship and will be leading off against some of the best in the country. Lefebure has also been somewhat underwhelming at 800 this season. Those factors combined, is the reason why I put Stanford at fourth. Fifth goes to Duke mainly because of the excellent racing that PA alum Nate McClafferty has done recently. He’ll be a big leg for Duke as he looks to get his team into race contention.