This Saturday, I will have the privilege to attend the New York State Indoor Track and Field Championship Meet, as it is hosted at Cornell University, where I am currently a student. This is exciting for me because I have yet to attend a state championship (although I have been to Indoor Nationals), and many of the distance races will be absolutely stacked. Below are my predictions on how the races 300m-3200m, plus the 4x400m and 4x800m relays will end up.
300m
This could possibly be the most stacked race of the day. In the field are names like Rai Benjamin (state champ in the 400h with a PR of 51.86), Richard Rose (PR of 46.38), and Anton Porter (PRs of 21.7 and 33.82). Benjamin is the top seed at 33.17, andtwo guys separate him and Rose. Despite these huge names, when I first thought about these predictions, I had Izaiah Brown as my winner, but unfortunately, Brown will only compete in the 4x4. Here are my predictions without him in the race.
1) Richard Rose- It pained me to pick against him when I thought Brown was in the race, but I can’t complain because Rose is one of my favorite guys at this meet. It is about time this extremely talented runner took home a state title.
2) Rai Benjamin- A lot of people expect Benjamin to take the win given his beastly seed time. He’ll undoubtedly give Rose a run for his money.
3) Anton Porter- Porter is just too fast not to finish top three. I give him the slightest of edges over Mergaran Poleon, who is seeded second and beat Rose in this event at State Quals.
600m
This race has a clear favorite, but after that, the talent isn’t really as prominent as the 300. It kills me that Richard Rose is in the 300m instead of this race, as I still think he could’ve broke 1:18.
1) Luke Germanakos- He’s the top seed by over a second and won this event last year. He’s the clear choice with Rose not in the field.
2) Kermani Mighty- Yes, that’s his real name. He’s seeded fourth in the race, but has run an impressive 48.57.
3) Infinite Tucker- Another fun name. Seeded sixth, but has run faster than 1:22 and also ran 54.8 for the 400h.
1000m
Another race with a clear favorite and a whole lot of uncertainty after. I love the 1k, and New York has had some great athletes run it over the years, but this year it seems like a lot of the top guys are going for the 1600m.
1) James Asselmeyer- He ran 2:25.86, which is technically faster than Zavon Watkins ever ran in high school. Easy pick for the win. Could this be a guy who makes some noise at the national level at 800m?
2) Jake Johnson- He’s the second seed and is faster than third by over a second. His PR of 2:28.48 in the event is impressive. Very good runner with other nice PRs (4:16, 1:53) and is only a junior.
3) Shamarr Powell- Fourth seed in the race, but only .01 seconds behind third. His PR of 1:56.20 in the 800m leads me to believehe’s the next best guy in the race.
1600m
Here’s where it gets really good. I already wrote an entire post about the 1600m, and if you have yet to read it, find it. It’ll explain my picks below.
1) Luke Gavigan- Returning champion, and the quintessence of a clutch racer. It won’t be easy, but he’s taking home his third state championship.
2) Mikey Brannigan- He won a national title. He’s run 4:07.Even if this race is after the 3200, I like his talent and credentials I really hope he and his family can find the accommodations to allow him to run Division I, because this guy is an awesome talent.
3) James Burke- In my post, I wrote about why Burke wouldn’t win despite taking the Millrose Mile crown. I’m sticking with my guns, and if Jeremy Spiezio was in this race, I’d have him in this spot instead of Burke.
3200m
Another absolutely loaded race I’ll have the pleasure of watching. A lot of the guys I liked in the 1600m are in this race instead, and the race is early in the meet, so everyone will be fresh. Three guys are seeded at faster than 9:10, and the top seven guys have all run 9:16 or better this season. I think if this race goes out fast, we could see some absolutely incredible times.
1) Mikey Brannigan- I know he may leave something in the tank for his 1600m, but I still can’t imagine a guy who ran 8:53 for a full two miles losing this race, even if he’s only seeded third.
2) Jeremy Spiezio- This is one of the guys I expected in the 1600m, as he ran 4:09.8 for a full mile this season. Never the less, he is seeded second at 9:09.38, and I think he’ll have the kick to finish at his seed.
3) Bryce Millar- A little bit of a controversial pick, as Millar is seeded fifth at 9:15.56, which means the top seed for the race isn’t in my top three. I really like Millar, as he comes arguably the best high school programs in the country in Fayetteville-Manlius, and his PR of 9:04.28 from outdoor leads me to believe he’s going to break 9:10 in this race and take home the bronze.
****I just want to say a little bit more about this race, because the field is so deep and talented. The top seed is Conor Lundy, who ran a stupid fast 9:03.78 inside this season. Lundy also ran 4:12.09 for a full mile and 2:28.43 this indoor season. Here’s the kicker: Lundy is only a junior. Look for him to be a huge factor on the national level next year.
4x400m
This my favorite race at track meets. The excitement of a close final leg on a 4x4 cannot be matched.
1) Amsterdam- This is a tough call, as the state champs from outdoor are seeded second in this race. The difference in what will bring this team the win: a fresh Izaiah Brown. They’re saving him for this race, and he can really move. Here’s a video of Brown taking the race last year:http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/251620-2014-NYSPHSAA-Outdoor-Track-and-Field-Championships/video/746986-Boys-4x400-F01#.VPjfq_nF-Ah (Brown gets the baton in fourth and is the white top and black bottoms). Look for more of the same this year.
2) Paul Robeson- This team is really balanced, as their first leg is Mergaran Poleon, who’s coming back from the 300m. They’re seeded third, but their anchor, Kiambu Gall did run 48.74 indoors a year ago.
3) Huntington- This team is the top seed, but my gut is just telling me that New Amsterdam and Paul Robeson are the top two teams. That said, this team is made up of two juniors and two sophomores. Huntington’s 4x400m team next year is going to be ridiculous.
4x800m
The final race I’ll be predicting, and what a race it will be, as six teams are seeded under 8:00. I hope you’ve enjoyed my predictions and analysis, as I have enjoyed writing this. I will be posting about the meet as soon as I can with breakdowns of all the races I’ve predicted. Yes, this isn’t what all you PA folk are used to, but I take pride in New York’s talent in track, and it’s really cool to be able to share it with all of you. Here are my final predictions:
1) Arlington- The top seeded team in this race at 7:47.29. That seed time is stupid fast for indoor, and even if James Asselmeyer is coming off the double, he’s a beast. I hope these cats run a relay at Nationals, because they are a force.
2) Shenendowa- Another team seeded sub 7:50, which is again, really fast like for indoors. They don’t have anyone like Asselmeyer, but a balanced team plus Collin Rowe (1:56 PR) is good enough to get the job done for second.
3) Warwick Valley- I’m just picking with my heart here. Warwick Valley is always good, and despite being seeded sixth and having just broke 8:00, history tells me not to pick against them. I can only hope they pull through for me.
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