Double Preview: Carlisle and Foundation

By Jarrett Felix

For a while, I used to call the Carlisle Invitational the real “Pre-States” meet as many years that field was significantly more loaded than the field assembling to preview the Hershey course. Running Pre-States to gain extra experience is probably a bit overrated. Up until last year no AAA who raced foundation, won states the same year (and North Allegheny wasn't even the top PA team last year). Meanwhile, the field at Carlisle typically included the powerhouses in the starting boxes. Teams like North Penn, LaSalle, Henderson, North Allegheny, Altoona, State College, Cumberland Valley, etc. would always be on the Carlisle entry list and usually that made for an exciting preview of the state championships.

This year marks the first time I can remember the meets falling on the same weekend and, in a surprising turn, I actually think the meet at Hershey has usurped Carlisle as a deep top to bottom field with a bit more intrigue (unless you are a AAA District 3 fan I suppose). Of course both meets are still impressively stacked and, between the two races, we should see 29 of my current top 50 and another 6 of my honorable mentioners. That’s just working off the start lists which, occasionally, will miss some top entries.

And get this, team wise the meets are even more stacked. Out of my predicted district champions last week, 23 are competing at one of these two meets. That includes my current projected state champs in AAA, AA and A and 9 of my top 10 overall. In other words, regardless of which area you are from, you should be paying close attention to this weekend’s action.

So get your popcorn ready Jim Dillner because it’s time for a Carlisle vs. Pre States: DOUBLE PREVIEW.

P.S. We are having a prediction contest for this meet! Leave your predictions in the comment section. Top 3 recommended for the smaller races, top five for the bigger ones. 5 points for every correct champion. 2 points for every person/team you pick who finishes in the top 3. 1 point for every person/team you pick who finishes in the top 5.

Foundation Boy’s White Race (A Race)

This will be the best field of “A” competition until states (except for possibly “A” WPIALs). It’s absolutely loaded and features a platter of the most intriguing teams and individuals in the state. For starters, we get to see Winchester Thurston back at Hershey for the first time since they won gold last November. And their biggest competition? It might be the team that they surprised for Gold, Sewickley Academy, who had to settle for Silver last year.

Despite taking a decent graduation hit, Sewickley has proven they are not going anywhere in 2015. Their top two runners, Griffin Mackey and Ben Clouse, have both looked phenomenal thus far and they very well may end up the 1-2 finishers this weekend. But Winchester is going to be difficult to bring down as they have the potential to hang with the front runners of Sewickley and pile on with their 3-4. Loevner, Hay, Littman and Forsythe are all potential state medalists in “A” later this season and this will be a good chance to see how they measure up against some of the state’s other top competitors.

The always competitive Elk Lake is scheduled to attend and they could potentially mix it up with the WPIALs top programs. However, Elk Lake will need to prove their tight pack is close enough to the front of the field to help them compete for the medal stand. Another team to watch is Camp Hill, the 2014 District 3 Champions. Camp Hill impressed at the Big Spring Invitational last weekend, even without defending district champion Blake Beheny.  Adding Blake to Cooper Leslie, Ian Gabig and Dan Shank creates a very formidable top four. It will be interesting to see how close this top group can hang to Winchester Thurston’s.

Individually along with Mackey, Loevner, Beheny and Littman (who all finished in the top 10 at states last year) we also have returning medalists Matt Murray, Joe Previdi and Isaac Wilson set to race over the hills. Murray had a huge day on this course last year at states and he and Wilson are both off to solid starts in 2015, but Previdi, who won his section of the Bull Dog Rose Tree meet, might be the best bet to crash the party out front with the WPIAL giants. His old teammate Julian Degroot-Lutzner won here the previous two years so he will look to keep the trophy in house.

Don’t sleep on Big Spring A Champion William Greene from Delone Catholic. He looked fantastic in his invitational opener, defeating the Camp Hill pack that won the team title. Zac Tingley from Lakeview is another under the radar pick for a Top Five finish this weekend. In the team race, watch for the District One battle between New Hope, Christopher Dock and Jenkintown to see who cements favorite status in the early going. Penns Valley and St. Joesph’s should have an interesting inner district battle and teams like Cranberry and Mahanoy Area will be looking to prove they can compete for district titles later this fall.

Predictions:

Teams (Top 3)

1. Winchester Thurston

2. Camp Hill

3. Sewickley Academy

4. Elk Lake

Individuals (Top 3)

1. Griffin Mackey

2. Ben Clouse

3. Joe Previdi

4. Shaun Hay

5. Matt Murray

Carlisle Invitational Champions Preview

This is the advertised as the “slower” race of the two at Carlisle this weekend, but is still filled with talent and intrigue. For starters, some of the top AA teams in District 3, many of which previewed the Big Spring course last week, will look to continue to gain momentum and improve their chances of clinching a bid to states. Among the entered teams in this weekend’s action are Milton Hershey, Palmyra and Trinity. Each of these programs has had its fair share of success over the years, but I think Milton Hershey has showcased the most potential thus far. They are my pick to take gold in this section.

Individually, I think Sam Signor from East Pennsboro and Jared Kearns from Northern should mix it up for the top spot. Signor has looked very strong in the early season and has been in and around the top fifty since his top five finish at Big Valley. Kearns had an excellent race at Big Spring last weekend in the AAA race and will hopefully build off that momentum against Signor. Signor ran a faster mark than Kearns in the AA race, mixing it up with the pack just behind Dan Filler (slated for the Challenge race) and he’s my pick to get the W here as well.

A sleeper to watch for individually is Andrew Maxwell of Kennett. As a sophomore last year he qualified for states in the loaded District One Championships, after impressing at Chesmonts. This is his first big name invitational of 2015 so let’s see how he handles the bright lights and the out of district competition.

Picks (Top 3):

1. Milton Hershey

2. Trinity (3)

3. East Pennsboro

1. Signor

2. Kearns

3. Maxwell

Note: If Manheim Central goes in this race instead of the Challenge they could also be a factor, as could some of their top individuals like Sunderland. The same could be said for Bedford’s 1-2 punch of Kachman and Baker as well as Manheim Township’s Brian Delaney. However, I expect all three of those individuals to be suiting up for the Challenge.

Foundation Blue Race (AA Race)

Remember that time Dominic Hockenbury went to Hershey and won by a lot? Well that happened twice last year and he’s looking to make it three in a row this weekend. Although arguably his two biggest competitors will be elsewhere (Will Kachman and Zach Skolnekovich), Hockenbury will get a look at a few other top ranked AA titans including super soph Jack Zardecki and 4:17 miler Matt Kravitz, both form his own district. Kravitz will be particularly interesting to watch in this one considering he’s known more for speed than strength. He can make a huge statement with a fast time this weekend.

Also atop the list of AA names in 2015 is Bryce Descavisch, who has yet to lose this season with a pair of invitational wins already under his belt. His latest came at PTXC when he defeated Conestoga’s PJ Murray in the Blue race. Descavisch had a huge breakthrough at 3200m last spring so we will see if that has translated well to the trails this weekend. Joe Espinal of Wilson is also hoping his track improvements carry him through the Hershey hills. The 1:55 800m man had an up and down 2014 season on the grass, but got off to a solid start this year with an early win at Moravian Academy.

Some of the best runners individually will also be representing some of the top teams. York Suburban, the defending state champions, is skipping the Carlisle Invitational this season after wow-ing fans in 2014. Donovan Mears leads an excellent pack of experienced champions into Hershey this weekend hoping to wow again, just on a slightly different stage. Defending WPIAL champions Knoch will look to knock off the reigning champs (sorry couldn’t resist) behind their own talented front-runner Max Freyermuth. Knoch boasts a potent top three which they showcased in a winning effort at Slippery Rock, but to beat York Suburban they will need to firing on all cylinders through five runners.

And of course there are the young guns from Dallas, led by the aforementioned Jack Zardecki. Zardecki placed 14^th at PTXC in the Gold race and helped lead his team to an impressive showing, beating top AAA teams like Cumberland Valley. Borton and Culp were also key in Dallas’s strong showing and will need to be again when the squad takes the trails against the defending state champions. This young team could potentially leave Hershey as state title favorites if things click on race day.

Don’t sleep on Pottsgrove or Grove City this weekend either. This pair of programs has been all over the podium in the years since their move down from AAA and both squads likely expect to be there again in 2015. Pottsgrove had a solid showing at the 4xXC Invitational, but they have not run a race that allows each individual to show just how fit they are over 5k. Grove City rode a strong pack to a win in the AA race of Red, White and Blue, but after losing such great front runners to graduation, will they be able to hang with YS or Dallas? McConnell and Pyle will have the duty of filling Benka and Budnik’s large shoes.

Some other story lines worth noting including Bonner vs. Archbishop Carroll in a District 12 showdown, Mount Caramel’s return to action behind David Fletcher after an impressive 2014, Beaver taking another shot at WPIAL favorites Knoch and teams like Central Cambria, Bradford and Allentown CC trying to establish themselves as District Title favorites. I’m sorry to all my high school English teachers for that run on sentence. But hey, I’ve got more story lines! Keep an eye on Logan Caruso of Bradford who has had a fantastic sophomore campaign thus far. Also watch North Schuylkill, North Pocono and Holy Redeemer who all could have sneaky good races this weekend. Maybe even Lake Lehman behind Hockenbury and Chris Sabol.

The big question in this one isn’t really if Hock will win (he’s a heavy favorite), but how fast will he run? I think he will be gunning for Sub 16 in his first true, all-out effort of the year. But I’m not sure I see a repeat of the magical Pre-State meet of 2014 where we saw Paul Power and KJ break 16. Who knows, weather might be good enough but he’s going to need some push to get him over the top. Who can provide that push? I guess we will find out …

Picks

Teams (Top 3)

1. York Suburban

2. Dallas

3. Grove City

4. Knoch

5. Beaver

Individuals (Top 3)

1. Hockenbury

2. Mears

3. Freyermuth

4. Kravitz

5. Zardecki

6. Descavisch

7. Caruso

Carlisle Challenge Race

Previewing this race is going to be tricky. Challenge accepted.

Let’s start with the big story line: Downingtown West. The consensus pre-season #1 is most likely going to unveil their star studded line up in its entirety for the first time this weekend at Carlisle. That means three top 12 ranked runners, Jaxson Hoey, Josh Hoey and Henry Sappey will be on the line. Adding in Ryan Barton, a sub 4:20 miler and Ben Ryherd and you are looking at a very strong Top 5. Considering many of the other top teams opted for Hershey, we won’t get a dream match-up in the team battle; however, West will still have to deal with the always dangerous West Chester Henderson.

Henderson is fresh off an impressive victory at Oberod, giving them another invitational championship after Oakbourne. However, there are still plenty of doubts about just how good Henderson’s squad is in 2015, particularly behind Spencer Smucker. I think Henderson has an excellent opportunity to prove the doubters wrong with a statement run here. Hopefully their pack isn’t in too far over their heads in this loaded field and their young front-runner can battle for a top five showing.

Although arguably the district’s best two teams are not scheduled to compete, District 3 will still be well represented behind Cumberland Valley, Carlisle, Chambersburg and Lower Dauphin (among others). And individually, it seems like essentially all the top names from the district are here. Bitner, Wisner, Kole, Higgins, Soliman, Filler, Mansell, Henderson, Shea, Cassell, Delaney, Cupp, Tomasko, Wurtz, Seiger. And I probably missed some people.

I think the individual battle is the much more intriguing piece to the puzzle this weekend. You obviously have a tight knit group of Chesmont runners to lead the way out front, but how do they fit in against rising star Nathan Henderson? Zach Seiger is consistently at the top of even the best XC invitationals and has proven himself at this meet before. Why shouldn’t he be the favorite for gold? And maybe, just maybe Matt Wisner can recapture the Carlisle magic that Zach Brehm and Kyle Hurston bottled during the epic runs to victory.

There are lots of other top names to reckon with including Will Kachman of Bedford who has been dominant to start the season in his first few meets. This should be his first race where he is pushed towards his limits. Joe Uliano from Altoona, Jake Ilgenfritz from Avon Grove and Zane Baker from Bedford are some under the radar names to keep an eye on as well.

I’m feeling an upset here. Don’t ask me why, I just have a hunch. I think a District 3 guy wins it. They are closer to home, both are pretty sharp and both have a good feel for the course. It’s hard to pick against Jaxson and Sappey, but I think Nate Henderson is the most ready and motivated to win right now. Seiger stays consistent and finishes in the top three as well.

Picks

Teams (Top 5)

1. DT West

2. Henderson

3. Carlisle

4. Cumberland Valley

5. Lower Dauphin

Individuals (Top 5)

1. Henderson

2. Jax Hoey

3. Seiger

4. Sappey

5. Josh Hoey

6. Kachman

7. Smucker

8. Delaney

9. Shea

10. Filler

Foundation Gold Race (AAA Race)

Hard to believe I think a race is more stacked than the one I just described, but I think this race is absolutely loaded. Especially from a team perspective. Take a look at this: North Allegheny, State College, LaSalle, Mount Lebanon, CB East, O’Hara. That’s arguably teams 3-8 in the state right now. Add in three of District Ones most interesting teams in Owen J Roberts, Pennsbury and Spring Ford and I’m on the edge of my seat.

North Allegheny has made it a tradition to trek to Hershey for this meet and appears to have left their Carlisle days in the past. As the defending state champs, they are unquestionably the favorite for this meet. Quietly, they are once again assembling a potent championship contender behind break-out star Marc Migliozzi. They are still solidifying their top five, but the pieces are there for a flexible attack, especially if Stupak and Migz become medalists.

But a victory is far from assured this weekend with Briarwood runner-ups LaSalle set to the make the trip out to Hershey. LaSalle and North Allegheny are no strangers to one another as state contenders. In 2008, LaSalle upset future NXN qualifiers North Allegheny for the silvers at states. A year later, the Tigers flipped the script, just edging out LaSalle for the silver medals. And as recently as 2012 the two squads finished right beside each other in 4^th and 5^th. So far, this looks like it may be LaSalle’s best team since the 2012 squad, with a pair of improving front runners in Patrick Grant and Evan Addison. They also have a tight pack that matched up nearly step for step with the highly touted CB West pack last weekend. LaSalle doesn’t normally make the trip to Foundation (and they usually go to Carlisle), but I think this decision makes a statement about their goals for 2015. A year ago, the team struggled on the state course after an upset win at districts. This year, they clearly are looking to correct that mistake with a little extra experience.

The team that they beat in order to claim that district title was Cardinal O’Hara, a team that certainly isn’t lacking in state championship experience. They have placed in the top three at states every season since 2010 and are hoping that they can continue that streak for an unthinkable sixth straight season in 2015. Things were a little rocky at Briarwood if that remains the goal, but as I mentioned in my recap, I think this team has some real upside down the line. At the very least, they have two of the best front runners in the business in Ryan James and Rob Morro and great coaching staff to lead them. It will be interesting to see if they can narrow the gap at all to CB East, who beat them at Briarwood.

CB East, State College and Mount Lebanon round out the rest of my title contenders for the weekend. Although Lebo seems like a long shot considering they had a tough time against the Tigers at RWB, they have a very capable top four and may be able to sneak closer to the front this weekend if their front running improves a tiny bit. Remember, they nearly ended up the top PA team last year at this meet in a surprise turn. CB East took a big step forward in their back to back weeks at Belmont Plateau, but this marks the third straight weekend of hilly racing and the fourth straight weekend at a big time invite (debatable I guess depending on what you think of 4xXC). For a team with three freshmen in their top seven, this is an important learning experience. However, they could also be quite drained after a difficult stretch of running. And lastly there is State College. This team has been off to a fast start in 2014, including a win over Hempfield at Spiked Shoe. I’m not sure anyone sees State College as an elite team, but rather a very good team. That could all change with a win against the defending state champs. SC is known for it’s excellent 4x800m performances over the past two years, so this will also be a big test for their speed runners on the hilly lay out.

Individually, this is a loaded field, but defending state champ Jake Brophy appears to be the clear favorite. Brophy has yet to lose in 2014 and you would have to go back to this meet last year to find a time he was beaten in a cross country race on PA soil. He has run about a minute faster than almost everyone in this field on this course and it would be a big upset to see the course record holder toppled by anyone, let alone a field that doesn’t include Hock, Dahl or Hoey.

But Nick Wolk has a real chance at it. Wolk has won his last two races emphatically, including a fantastic 15:48 victory at RWB that put him easily ahead of the rest of the WPIAL. It’s obvious now that Wolk is a contender, but a win at Hershey would catapult him up into the state’s true top tier. Wolk has never medaled at the state championships in XC, but did have a strong top 50 race in 2014. It’s also clear he is on a different plane than he was last year, so comparisons to his last Hershey trip are probably unreasonable.

Alex Milligan, the 16^th place finisher at states in 2014, will also be looking to make a statement. He was second to Will Kachman at the Big Valley invite and then second to an out of stater at Spiked Shoe. He very well could end up wearing another silver medal this weekend (or maybe even a pair of them if State College can’t topple the field), but I’d bet he’s hungry for gold. Ryan James and Rob Morro for O’Hara are also returning state medalists. Although James was beaten fairly handily by Brophy last weekend, he also excels on this course and is ahead of the pace he set last year when he finished 15^th in Hershey.

Among the other names to watch in this group are Jeff Kirshenbaum, the Viking Runner Up Finisher who has arguably been the biggest threat to Brophy this season, Migz and Stupak from NA, Liam Galligan from Springfield DELCO, Centaur champion and super soph Liam Conway, and Joe Piscano from St. Joe’s. In the sleeper section, don’t forget about Lebo’s top man Ian Harris, Smiley and McGinnis from Phoenixville, D’Aquila from Lower Merion and Kersten from Pennsbury. Montgomery from Perk Valley is also a contender to remember. If Mike Kolor is back running for Seneca Valley, he is always a contender for a top spot in any race he enters. And heck, throw in Ian Reid from Strath Haven and Zach Smith from Spring Ford as others to watch.

Picks

Teams (Top 5)

1. North Allegheny

2. State College

3. Mount Lebanon

4. LaSalle

5. O’Hara

Individual (Top 5)

1. Brophy

2. Wolk

3. James

4. Milligan

5. Stupak

6. Galligan

7. Morro

8. Miggliozzi

9. Kirshenbaum

10. Conway