By: Garrett Zatlin
Well ladies and gents, you can finally enjoy not constantly
seeing new teams spam the blog and we can finally get down to the exciting
part of the XC season! My goal throughout the fall is to update the team and individual
rankings weekly (just like Etrain). That way, I can still keep you guys updated
on the important weekend action without having to make a separate “Weekend in Review” post every Monday or Tuesday.
Now that I am done with my preseason rankings, let’s take a look
back at how I did and make some comparisons...
Top 25- Etrain
#01 Colorado Buffalos
Top 25- Flotrack
Other Rankings:
USATFCCCA Preseason Coaches Poll
Flotrack's 31-26...
#31 Furman Paladins
#30 NC State Wolfpack
#29 Michigan State Spartans
#28 Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
#27 North Carolina Tarheels
#26 Arkansas Razorbacks
There's a lot to talk about and certainly some things I'd like to review, so let's jump into it!
The Big Differences
There were certainly a lot of differences between the Etrain and Flotrack rankings. I think it might have confused a lot of people and made them wonder how which list was more legitimate. One reason I believe we were so different was because Flotrack took last season into account pretty heavily and focused a lot on the post-season (which is completely reasonable). I, on the other hand, put a little more consideration into the regular season meets than just the post-season. I like to evaluate teams more on an overall scale rather than just on three-weeks (not saying that's what Flotrack did, I'm just giving my thoughts).
Flotrack also seemed to be heavily influenced by track times. While, track times are a great indicator of talent, it doesn't always translate into having a good XC season. That said, I also threw out plenty of track times in my rankings so I'm not completely innocent.
Of course, the biggest difference was my lack of knowledge on the transfer situations going around the country. New Mexico and Eastern Kentucky are teams that I missed when I was searching for new transfers. They probably should've made the rankings. That said, I think Flotrack missed the Louisville transfers so I'm pretty proud I found them.
The Big Similarities
Obviously, that top 10 was pretty close to being exactly the same. I don't think there is any argument there. Flotrack and I both seem to have a general understanding of how those teams were affected by graduation and where they will most likely fall to. I also agree with the Razorback around that 26th spot (which is a just-miss position for my rankings). They're a good team with excellent history and bring in a very solid runner named Frankline Tonui. Watch for the Razorbacks to sneak into the rankings at one point or another this season.
You Got Robbed (Teams on Flotrack's rankings that should've made my rankings)
-New Mexico Lobos
-Eastern Kentucky Colonels
-California Golden Bears
-Boise State Broncos
These four teams definitely should've been on my list at one point or another. As I mentioned above, I wasn't aware about the talented transfers EKU and New Mexico brought in. They all look really solid and will keep their respective teams in contention.
Boise State deserves some love. They picked up one of my favorite recruits (Elijah Armstrong) this offseason and bring back Michael Vennard who's excellent track season indicates that he's ready to improve during XC. Andrew Rafla's experience at NCAA's will probably set him up to be the leader of this team despite only being a sophomore. The only problem with this squad (and what probably made me hold them off the rankings) is their youth. On Flotrack, Boise State's projected scoring five includes four sophomores and one freshman. That lack of experience doesn't make me comfortable, but I'm still going to watch and see if Boise State can take it up to the next level.
I'm kind of neutral on California right now. They've got a great leader in Walden who can be a big low-stick. They also have some really close depth that can keep the scoring down. The only issue I had with them is Thomas Joyce. He crushed it during track this past spring, but I want to see him perform well on the grass before I can give California a spot on this list.
I'll Hold My Ground (Teams on Flotrack's rankings that I would not put in my rankings)
-Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
-Georgetown Hoyas
-Washington Huskies
-Portland Pilots
-Indiana Hoosiers
There's a lot I don't agree with here and I suppose I'll start with NAU. The Lumberjacks lose a heavy portion of seniors from last years team. They graduate five of their top seven and not only does that hurt their scorers, but it hurts the depth that most teams rely on to rebuild. To say they are a top 25 team just doesn't make sense to me. Also, if I heard correctly on Flotrack's podcast, Gordon Mack has "heard some rumors" that Futsum Zienasellassie might be redshirting this year (for some reason). So why would you put them at #20?
Georgetown is going through a huge change with a new program, suspension from meets, a new coach, and some of the biggest names transferring. There is simply too much change going on for me to feel comfortable about the Hoyas being a top 25 team. They lost two huge leaders in Gil and Leibold so to say that this is still a team that can be as competitive as last year is just ridiculous in my mind.
Washington probably should've been a 'just-miss' team for me, but I still don't believe they're top 25 material. Their #1 man Aaron Nelson graduates and Meron Simon transferred to NC State. Those are two huge names to lose. Trying to have three rising sophomores take over those scoring roles makes me skeptical about how good this Huskies team can be especially when you consider how poor of a performance they had at NCAA's (the freshmen that is). If they can develop properly, then maybe they'll get into the rankings, but until then I'm not holding my breath.
The Portland Pilots are another team that made me scratch my head. I'm all for relying on good coaching and development to get you through a season. Yet, when you lose four of your top five guys there's only so much scoring you can make up for. Many will argue that Portland has been good for so many years (and they absolutely were). However, a heavy reason for that success could be credited to the guys who just graduated. I like their #1 returner Danny Martinez, but not enough to make me consider the Pilots as one of the top teams in the nation.
Finally, why on earth are the Indiana Hoosiers at #11??? I get that they have a very good top two in Schwartzer and Crist. However, Rorey Hunter hasn't proven himself to be an impact runner on the grass and there are still plenty of questions about who the 4th and 5th runners will be. Sure, there are some great steeplechasers and experienced guys that deserve to get recognized, but how does that warrant an 11th place ranking? Did Indiana deserve to get on my list? Yeah, probably. But putting the Hoosiers that low just makes me shake my head. You can do better Flotrack.
For The Rest Of The Season
As I mentioned in the intro, I will release weekly individual and team rankings showing where everyone moved to what position on the list and for what reason. I focus my rankings on bigger meets, progression throughout season, injuries, experience, and much more. If you have any questions about that feel free to comment below. I will also be looking to get some interviews in at one point or another so stay on the look out for that! And don't worry PA alum I didn't forget about you. I'll throw in an updated PA alumni rankings throughout the season as well.
I'll Leave You With Some Questions
-Who did a better job at ranking the top teams in the nation? Etrain or Flotrack?
-Which teams do you disagree with on the Etrain rankings? Flotrack rankings?
-Which teams do you expect to surprise and crack the top 25? Which teams do you expect to move off the list?
-Any coach, individual, or team that you would like to see interviewed?
-Any ideas for new posts that you'd like to see?
Thanks for reading and feel free to comment below! The more feedback the better.
Keep it real,
Garrett
Is it 100% confirmed that there are sanctions on the Hoyas and meets they can attend?
ReplyDeleteIf I'm being honest it's tough to say for sure. They are still scheduled to run in the preseason as well as at Paul Short and Pre-nats. However, their opening meets like JMU, Spiked Shoe, and Beantown are all gone.
Delete*postseason...not preseason
Delete