Week Two Preview

by Jarrett Felix

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Red White and Blue Invitational

Check out Evan Hatton’s Preview on the blog now!

If you’re curious, I pick Peretta-Kolor-Mackey for top three with NA and Mt Lebo for top teams in order. Extremely curious to see who is third and which small school teams show up in the first big invite of the year

PTXC

With the cancelling of the CB East Invitational, it appears CB West will take a trip to the PTXC Invitational, looking to continue an impressive start to the 2015 season. They dominated the Viking Invitational in Week One and arguably looked like the best team in the state. It’s hard to imagine anyone beating a full strength DT West team, but CB West’s pack might be the only team (so far) that shows any signs of being able to pull it off. This field could potentially be a much bigger test than Viking (Cumberland Valley is another top ranked team in the state according to both my ranks and the coaches poll), but I still expect CB West to take care of business. Let’s see if they can either establish a closer pack or continue to improve their front running. Or both.

Cumberland Valley is also a top ranked team in the state and will look to knock CB West from their place among the state’s elite. Josh Higgins and Yahja Soliman (along with Owen Seeber) are potential top 50 guys in 2015 and there are some young pieces with the ability to surprise. Many of their District 3 rivals will be in attendance, including some of favorites in Ephrata and Mechanicsburg. Also worth noting is D3 AA stand out squad Wyomissing.

In 2014, Easton made a big statement about their XC credentials with a breakout race at this meet. Perhaps they can continue their stretch of strong running despite losing Colin Abert (last year’s champ), but it will be a difficult battle to fight. A better bet for a break out under the radar team in 2015 may be Dallas, a team with a variety of young stand outs who appears to be on the rise this year. Dom Deluca, a grad form Dallas, was particularly successful at this meet in years past and that wisdom from the coaching staff may flow through to this year’s team.

Individually, Dominic Hockenbury comes in as a logical favorite. He was 2^nd in 2014 behind Colin Abert and then didn’t lose another race until Footlocker Regionals. The three time state champ, who is a notorious front runner and pace pusher, may be gunning for a course record type performance or he may be looking to run a bit more conservative in the early season to save for a late season push for Nats.

However, if Hock brings anything less than his “A” game, he leaves himself vulnerable for attack from some of the state’s best runners. Zach Seiger from Red Land is an extremely talented XC force and is really hard to beat on the trails. He has something to prove in 2015 after a track season where he was largely overshadowed by the other speedsters and rival Nathan Henderson. Also in the mix could be the man closest to Hock at states in 2014, Jack DiCintio, who had an excellent late season surge for Wyomissing.

The field should be very deep with guys like Connor McMenamin of Souderton, Kevin Lapsansky of Easton, Seth Slavin of Pleasant Valley, Nate Becker from Ephrata and Rock Fortna from CB West all coming off top 50 finishes at states in 2015. Bryce Descavish of Central Cambria (probably in the Blue race) is another talent to be aware of at this meet. He looked strong in his season opener which was a fairly easy win. Will Aplaugh, Morgan Cupp and Jack Zardecki are other names among my contenders list for this event. This list could potentially get even longer if you add in teams like CR North, CR South, Conestoga and Pennridge who may be attending this meet but are also potentially running in other invites.

Cherokee
I don’t know who will traverse to New Jersey for this meet, but last year featured PA’s own DT West, Pennsbury, Henderson, Conestoga and Unionville (and possible more than I missed). If memory serves, this race is split by class (not a huge fan of that set up) so we won’t get a true match-up of some of the districts best teams. DT West, Henderson and West Chester East apparently had a fantastic tri meet (anyone have full results?) and, as one poster mention, we could have four top ten type runners competing at this meet in the Hoeys, Sappey and Smucker. Also watch for Kent Hall and PJ Murray as potential surprises. And, of course, we will get a chance to watch for the next big star in the freshman and sophomore races.

Abington Invitational
I’m not sure who will be at the 2015 edition of this race as many teams who competed a year ago (DT West, Malvern Prep, Wissahickon, HG Prep, Strath Haven) all may have other meets on the agenda this time out. That being said, it looks like the cancelling of the CB East Invitational has put North Penn into this meet, an always dangerous program. Avon Grove with Jake Ilgenfritz and Haverford’s James Abrahams are a couple forces to watch in this race as well. Depending on who exactly shows, we could see a variety of different results, but typically this meet produces some excellent times from some top runners.

Quad XC

This is a cool meet idea that I have participated in myself (and they used to give great prizes). Each team enters two 4x2 Mile relays to race each other around Belmont Plateau. It’s a difficult 2 mile, especially when things get spread out, but it’s a great chance to showcase depth through 8 guys and toughness. CB East, a team that I was very high on during the preseason, will be the team to watch, especially their freshmen. They excelled in the Novice race a year ago, so hopefully we see a few of them stepping up to run with the Varsity boys. And oh yeah, probably will be fun to see Jake Brophy tune up for a possible course record run at Briarwood.

Pottsgrove, one of the best teams in AA year in and year out, will certainly be a team to watch in this race. They will be matched by league rivals Spring Ford who looked fantastic in their dual meet debut behind Zachary Smith. If Lower Merion or Pennsbury end up on the starting line, keep an eye out for lesser known guys like Matt D’Aquila from LM and possibly Eric Kersten (the 1:55 leadoff man for Pennsbury’s state championship squad may transition to XC this year?). Penncrest, historically, is also usually a factor year in and year out.

Spiked Shoe Invitational
Carlisle will look to build off a fantastic win in week one at Enos by defending their share of the title at Spiked Shoe. However, they will have their hands full with State College, the District 6 powerhouse that dominated Big Valley in their season opener. State College’s Alex Milligan will be hungry for a first gold of the season after being denied the win against Will Kachman last week, but speedster Matt Wisner stands in his way. Wisner won at Enos by a nose over Dan Filler. Keep an eye on the matchup between both squads packs and don’t sleep on Kole for Carlisle as a potential game changer. I’m not 100% sold on either team’s packs which is why they haven’t landed in my top 10, but if they show up this weekend on a difficult course, that will change quite quickly.

Individually, besides Milligan and Wisner, on paper the top PA runners, watch out for Tunkhannock’s Jacob Toczko. He is a talented runner and could follow in the footsteps of Jack Tidball who ran phenomenally at this meet in 2014. Also on the radar should be Isaac Wilson from North Clarion. He had a fantastic debut last weekend and made his debut on my Top 50 rankings as a result. Another sleeper could be Sean McGinnis from Phoenixville who ran 1:55 and mid 4:20s on the track. Lastly, keep an eye on Wilson (3) as a team that may surprise. They lost some of their front running talent from a year ago, but I like their pack.

Mansfield Invitational

I don’t know too much about this meet, but keep an eye on the team from Mifflinburg. They are a sleeper pick to make states out of D4 in AA and they have a really good front runner in Quincy Amabile, who I am very high on this season. I’ll be curious to see how this squad runs in week two.

Forest Hills Invite

Will Kachman got a big win in week one and this weekend he should be able to add another gold to his trophy room. But the real story will likely unfold behind the accomplished state medalist. His teammate Zane Baker had an excellent debut last weekend, St. Joesph’s had a strong showing, including  great 1-2 punch and a few other D6 teams had nice moments in week one. The team battle between squads like Bedford, Windber, St. Joesph’s and others could also be fun. Windber was sneaky good in 2014 so we will see how they build off that performance this year.

Centaur Invite

The DeSales course is an underrated coach in terms of difficulty and quality, especially the 5k version which cuts out some of the poor footing the 8k has. Tough courses like this usually bring out some quality XC performers who can handle the hills better than the track stand outs. That will make for an interesting District 11 matchup between proven 8/16 runner Joe Espinal and accomplished XC man Michael Geiger from Parkland. There is some considerable buzz around the Parkland team, they are ranked in the top 10 in the latest milesplit polls, and Geiger will be huge in taking them to the next level. He ran well here a year ago and is likely the favorite for gold this go round.

If the Pennridge men’s squad comes here (I think only Pennridge girls will be at PTXC?) we will see Tucker Desko in his second race of the season after a top 10 finish at Viking to start the year. He could potentially be a factor for gold in this race depending on how he handles the hills. Super soph Liam Conway, one of the fastest freshman in the state in 2014, was incredible a year ago. The youngster looks on pace to become a sub 16 threat and medal contender in 2015 as part of a very talented class of runners (Smucker, Hoey, Cupp, etc) so his debut should be one to watch. Hudson Delisle of Quakertown is also a member of that class and is a sleeper in this one.

I’m curious to see how well DT East runs this weekend after a strong showing in Week One. HG Prep is also a team to keep an eye on this weekend behind Callahan Lennon, a strong front runner and potential D1 Champion in 2015.

Rose Tree Invitational

This meet lacks some of the flashy, household names in the state, but this individual battle could be downright thrilling. Liam Galligan, a Top 50 state finisher as the sophomore, will enter his junior season as a state medalist contender with excellent speed. Methacton’s Jeff Kirshenbaum and Wissahickon’s Lukas Marcelis both shined in their debuts at Viking and can solidify their resume with a win here at Rose Tree. Kirshenbaum seems particularly likely to have a big day, he ran fantastically behind only Jake Brophy. St. Joe’s Prep’s Joe Piscano has been a consistent XC force the past two seasons and opened 2015 with a win at LVC. He matches up with PCL rivals Bonner and Sean Sullivan at this meet. Add in Jonah Gillespie-Sickman (top 50 finisher at states as well in 2014) and his teammate Sam Ebby and you have a loaded set of AAA individuals competing for gold.

But the sleeper pick could be Colin Wills from Malvern Prep. He may end up at Abington (Prep ran there in 2014), but if he ends up here Wills has excellent speed and underrated strength. I think he’s a great fit for this course, the only question is how he will bounce back without the top tier training partners he had last year.

Team wise, keep an eye on AA’s Bishop Shanahan. They will be in a dogfight later this year at Districts between Pottsgrove and HG Prep for just one state spot. This meet is an important stepping stone towards being ready for that battle at Lehigh.

Big Red Invitational

Knoch was one of the best teams in the state last year for AA and looks set to be a top team again in 2015 (check my team rankings for reference). They got no respect in the first round of coach’s polls on milesplit (WPIAL AA team of choice was Quaker Valley) and will look to prove themselves at this meet. Conceivably they could have the top two individuals in the entire race which really helps their case for a big victory. However, my pick for the individual victory may be Billy Lott from Ellwood City. He’s making the sophomore to junior jump after an excellent year two last fall. I think this could be a breakout season for Lott. An intriguing under the radar team to watch would be North East. They are typically a powerhouse in District 10, but D10 is loaded year in and year out, even at the “A” level. Let’s see if they are ready to make a run in 2015.

Hurricane Invitational

Last year, I was a huge fan of Jim Thorpe’s team and they proved they could mix it up with many top schools in AA. However, Thorpe graduated a few key pieces (including Jacob Saxon, now at my alma mater Muhlenberg) and North Schuylkill, a team with some intriguing up and coming pieces, is in a position to challenge their supremacy. Let’s see how the house that Shearn built can handle themselves in their first major invitational.

Lackawana County Invitational

North Pocono dominated this meet a year ago behind Matt Kravitz, who won the race by about a minute. Kravitz is a stud who is fresh off a phenomenal track season at 1600m. He’s a certified speedster who is still improving on his XC strength, especially on the hills, but most (myself included) think he could have a huge 2015 season. This is the first step. I’m hoping that Dunmore’s Matt Murray, a great XC guy who was Top 10 in a loaded “A” state meet last year, ran very quick at Hershey last fall (I think he beat Kravitz by time although they were in different races) and could perhaps serve as a challenger for the win in this race. Murray was 2^nd to fellow District 2 stand out Dominic Hockenbury last week so Kravitz v. Murray could provide a relative comparison between Kravitz and Hock.

Sleepers include teams like Wallenpaupack (have to step up to beat Hazleton, among others, at districts) and Lakeland (a great program).

Mill Street Invitational

CR North and CR South are both among the teams listed on the PTXC entry list, so this meet is pretty up in the air, but I expect to see a nice little Suburban One National match-up between the Council Rock schools and Bensalem in a low key showdown. CR North looked pretty solid in their opener and I was actually quite impressed by their run against CB East (I figured North would be strong at season’s end, but they are off to a faster thought than I was expecting) and one of their top guys could very well win this race. However, Joe Maguire from CR South is the favorite and a real talent. Hopefully, teammate Andrew Hanna returns to action as well to complete the 1-2 punch that I was looking forward to seeing this year. Watch out for Shah from Bensalem as a sleeper for a top place in this race and maybe even an upset for the victory.

Wyalusing Valley Invitational

Northeast Bradford takes center stage, looking to prove themselves as a “A” state title contender in 2015. They didn’t particularly “wow” me in their opener and they may have an interesting challenge from some of the hometown schools here in this invite. I’m excited to see how NEB steps up to the challenge and I expect them to have a strong performance this weekend.