Team Rankings- Week Two

By Jarrett Felix

September is a fun month for cross country. It's usually a nice opportunity for me to be humbled for whiffing on some early predictions and a chance to rapidly change around some rankings from week to week. As you probably saw in the Top 50 rankings (#Top50Tuesday has some work to do to be trending on Twitter I'm afraid), there have been a nice group of rising stars, many of which came from the WPIAL, a particularly tricky district for me to figure out in 2015. 

And at RWB we got to see almost all of those D7 teams in action on the same course. That's a benefit you won't get in many other districts, and it's a pretty nice check point for athletes, coaches and fans to see what's up. And if your asking the Bugs Bunny question (i.e. What's up Doc?), the answer seems to be North Allegheny. The Tigers stormed out the gates again in 2015, winning the invitational in fairly dominate fashion over a Mount Lebanon team that looks pretty strong and the defending "A" state champions in Winchester Thurston. 

Although NA is the reigning state champion and they have a strong history of winning, this was still a surprise to me. I mean they lost three senior leaders to graduation who also happened to be the top 3 finishers for the state champs. At the very least, you would think the team would need to spend a few weeks finding its identity ... And perhaps a few years replacing that talent. In the past, after heavy graduation, North Allegheny has started a bit slow before turning it on late in the year. The 2011 NA team that followed their last state championship season in 2010, couldn't hang with Mount Lebanon up through leagues, before suddenly turning on another gear at WPIALs (and holding on through states). Even this past year's NA team had to shake off strong challenges from O'Hara and Lebo at Pre States before solidifying their pack in time for an impressive gold at actual states.

But the top 4 in week one was excellent, led by a breakout run by Marc Migliozzi and their pack of guys hoping to snatch the 5 spot is deep and formidable. 

And yet, I still only have the Tigers at #3 in my rankings. A net move of 0 spots from the pre season. 

In my eyes, the top 3 is very clearly a leg up on the rest of the state. That's not to say the rest of the state isn't good (it's a pretty decent team year I'd argue), we just may be looking at 3 amazing squads. CB West was awesome at Viking, and their pack looks quite legit. As of now they probably have 5 guys who could place top 50 at states. And then of course, there is Downingtown West who has talent spilling all over the place (even if they have had a relatively quiet start). 

I'm very curious how this season progresses from here and eager to see which team is left off the podium in November.

Sorting out the rest is a bit more complicated. For starters, you have the onslaught of district one teams. I understand that there could be a few party crashers between now and season's end, but for now I think there are 5 very clear favorites for states: The Wests, Henderson, CRN and CB East. Anyone else would be a (pleasant) huge surprise, although I am a big fan of up and coming squads like Spring Ford and Owen J (plus shout to Pennsbury and WC East among others).

As I've said a variety of times on here, CRN looks great for this early in the season, considering their trademark is to come on late. And their history of qualifying for states is well documented (check PAdontPlay for reference). This team is deep and hopefully will find some front running identity as the year goes on (Heintz could end up that man). Hard to picture them outside the top 10 at season's end. And I'm not just saying that to honor our comrade Forrest, I mean it.

CB East has struck my fancy with their races this year and last. Brophy deservedly steals the spotlight, but this team had a deceiving amount of depth last track season. If not for a fall, we could have seen quite the 4x8 red black and blue. This fall, they have thrown in some impressive young talent to the experienced, hard working core and I really like the fit. Plus they have arguably (and based on my top 50, I am one of the arguers) an automatic "1" regardless of the meet. Viking was a bit underwhelming, but I think we see a big performance at Briarwood. This team hasn't forgotten that 6th at districts last year.

And of course, as always, we end up talking about Henderson in the contender discussion. It's super early, but I'm already envisioning a situation where this squad is top 5 in the state. I thought they looked quite solid at Oakbourne and held their own against the state's best team in their dual meet. And I think this is still a pretty young group if I'm not mistaken. They have some work to do to leap some teams with more impressive starts, but they have the pieces to make things interesting. Again.

And let's sort out the rest here. Hershey is the coolest story so far in my eyes. They lost not just two of the best runners in recent program history, but also something like their entire top 5 (at districts) from a squad that ended up not even making states! And now here they are as top PA team at the PTXC Invitational. They have a sick spread (which I always enjoy) and still have young, developing pieces. There is still plenty left to prove against the other D3 powerhouses (I like the way Hempfield looked at Slipper Rock and CV has an impressive historical resume, pun intended), but Hershey has made a big statement in the most publicized meet of the season (on one website at least).

The big mover from week two, however, will be State College. I went back and forth on their top 10 potential in the preseason, but now it's hard to deny that I underestimated them. Quite immensely. Milligan is a clear stud and perhaps one of the most underrated guys on the boards and Feffer is clearly a talent. But the difference makers have been in the pack where the 3-4-5 have been better than I expected. The momentum picked up last spring has carried through and they should contend for top five.

Dallas and Winchester Thurston both look like the top contenders in their respective divisions. I'm not ready to call either team a top 10 squad (WT is very close with that absurdly good top 4), but it's hard to deny their impressive starts have made the bigger schools quake a bit. Sewickley was stronger than expected (for me) especially Ben Clouse who ran a killer RWB. Shanahan looked good at Rose Tree, winning all 3 races, but they can barely even think about states considering they are in the group of death. Grove City also looked strong. They rebounded surprisingly well after losing some real firepower on the roster. The pack is there and I think Pyle could end up a stud this fall, but will that be enough?

LaSalle and O'Hara will have something to say about the rankings when the inevitably return to action (Briarwood I assume) but for now they will have to sit on the sidelines and watch this top 10 unfold.

In conclusion, here's the Top 10 (included some etrain MVPs for fun):

1. DT West, etrain MVP: Ryherd (honorable mention to Sappey)

2. CB West, etrain MVP: Smullen

3. North Allegheny, etrain MVP: Migliozzi

4. State College, etrain MVP: Degleris

5. Mount Lebanon, etrain MVP: Kalapos (honorable mention to Harris)

6. Hershey, etrain MVP: D'Amico

7. Hempfield, etrain MVP: Yurchak

8. CB East, etrain MVP: the freshmen

9. WC Henderson, etrain MVP: Ruether

10. CR North, etrain MVP: Haas