Let's Play 20 Questions

1. How good is Downingtown West? 
Lots of people talking upset here, will they make a big statement or fold under expectation? Yes that was two questions, but only one counts ...

2. Is CB West the team people should be talking about instead of North Allgheny?
CB West has been impressive this season, there's not a lot to dislike here, it's more the teams ahead of them are very strong. Curious if they turn the tables on NA and/or DTW

3. How good at cross country is Domenic Peretta?
I really feel like this guy is one of the best runners in PA history. The whole AA/A thing kinda hurts his legacy because he missed out on racing some really good dudes at states. I have a ton of respect for the fact that he came all the way down to Henderson to race Lewis/Ritz/McDevitt at 800m and hold his own despite having a marathon of a road trip. But to really cement his legacy and round out his resume, it would be nice to have XC gold. He won districts twice, but the question now is if he can conquer Hershey and get a dominant win.

4. Which banged up star will surprise at states?
Mike Kolor, Jake Susalla and Zach Seiger have all had their fair share of health issues this season after finishing in the medals last year. I'd guess one of them comes out and has a huge day at states, but each is really a wildcard out there considering. These are three gutsy dudes so they can never be counted out on race day.

5. How will District 3 fare after the course move?
I've been talking about this for a while too. I'm curious if District 3 has a huge day at states (Camp Hill, Hempfield, York Suburban and the individuals) as a result of the move from Hershey to Big Spring for their district meet. Maybe I've been wrong and this result will be dramatically overrated or maybe we see a big uptick in D3 success.

6. Will Etrain continue to ignore the independent league all week?
Look, I gotta take this moment to apologize to the independent league. There are a ton of great runners there with dudes who have potential to be top 50 guys in my final rankings. But Independent States just doesn't get me fired up. We need to either a) get independent states on the Hershey course so times are a bit more comparable or b) get a meet of champions! 

7. How many times will Etrain lament the fact that there is no Meet of Champions?
I've been pretty good about not beating people over the head with this stuff, but it just is frustrating to know all the best guys don't get to race each other. Hock might be the best guy in the state but he will be in the shadow of Brophy and the Hoeys and whoever else shines in the AAA race. It's not really fair to the runners and it's not really fair to me as a fan! And I'm a selfish man!

8. Who will earn the title of "best runner nobody talks about" this weekend?
My guess is somebody in A. There are some excellent runners that I can't wait to see on the big stage. 

9. How will York Suburban cement their legacy?
YS last year was the TOP PA team at Carlisle. The top team over LaSalle, DTW, Henderson, Cumby, etc. They rolled to a state championship (although Penntrack is trying to tell us they weren't favorites?), even though I feel like they didn't have their best day. Then this year, they win big at Foundation, crush at leagues and dominate at districts. I think they are huge favorites to win going away at states this weekend and if that happens, will we finally give this team some respect? This is a fantastic team among all classifications. Just another time a meet of champs would have come in handy. Sorry, I'll stop.

10. Will Etrain ever learn from picking against Dominic Hockenbury?
Hock is a beast. He could potentially end up just dominating the state championship. I find it odd the AA champion's winning time has been slower than the A champion the last 3 years. I can see that changing this year with Hock crushing his first sub 16. Nobody has been close to him in so long, do things finally get interesting this time around?

11. How good is the PCL this year?
They've had a top 3 team every year since joining the PCL. The top individual finishers from the PCL at states have been something like 24th, 11th, 18th, 4th, 9th, 4th, and 2nd improving a lot in recent years. Will they regress to the mean or will the upswing continue with a top 10 run and top 3 team finish?

12. Will there be an awkward interaction between Etrain and the penntrack staff at states?
You ever like run into a boy/girl you asked out on a date but she turned you down? Is it awkward? Cuz that's kinda how I feel after penntrack ignored our prediction contest offer. Let that be a lesson to you kids to make sure you ask that boy/girl out in person 

13. What shirt will Etrain be wearing on race day?
I've got the Etrain shirt, the lutzgrind shirt and the Steph curry shirt packed away. And the Oregon sweatshirt. Yes, I'm a huge fanboy. 

14. Which district one runner will go from barely making states to cracking the top 50?
It happens every year more or less. Sometimes they end up in the medals. Just ask Ted McDonald in 2007. Nice reference Etrain I'm sure everyone gets your reference to an obscure Neshaminy medalist from your sophomore year in high school.

15. Which district will dominate each division?
Last year I'd say it was D7, D2 and D1. I'm curious if you look at the total aggregate medalists by district, which district has the most. Could be fun to check it out. 

16. Will Etrain write a sappy last minute post before states?
No, but I might recycle my 2012 post because that is a fun one

17. Is Etrain really going to use the word sappy and not make a Henry Sappey pun?
Well great now we spoiled the surprise.

18. Is this the year a sophomore wins XC states?
The number of juniors winning state titles has see a big uptick in recent years I feel and there have been an impressive number of sophomore track champions in recent years. But sophs winning in XC is very, very rare. Maybe this is the year it happens, because it feels a little bit like we are due.

19. Will Jimmy Springer break Matt McWilliams state record and break 15 minutes at Hershey in 2016?
If you're confused, it's ok. It's also not fair to ask the question if I already know the answer.

20. How soon after states is finished will people start talking about next year's state picks?
I'm gonna guess negative 7 minutes.

7 comments:

  1. They won Carlisle, Manhattan, Chesmonts and Districts which is awesome but without the Hoey's it's probably another year of inconsistency and underachieving. Would love to see them put it together for 1-7 for states.

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  2. I am taking the contrarian view on #9 (because you haven't given much other option) and predicting a much tighter race in AA. The big unknown to me in that race might be Shanahan out of D1. We know nothing about them except they won Bulldog, Paul Short and upset a 4x D1 champion to get to Hershey. On paper at least they seem like they could hang with a spectacular York Suburban team. But the first time trip to Hershey frequently ends with some head scratching. I don't think they can run with Mears but if they get 5 mixed in with York's 2-4 it could be a much tighter race than you pick.

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  3. I don’t see DTW losing this states. NA is a serious threat but they don’t have the frontrunners DTW does. Racing the first time on Hershey has ruined a lot of runners days and the Hoeys haven’t raced there. But they’ve likely done some work on the Hershey course to get familiar and they’re very aggressive and competitive runners, so I’d expect they’ll be ok.

    Now I thought this DTW team has a chance to be among the best PA teams ever but I seemed to ba alone on that and it certainly didn’t happen at districts. However, if Barton and O’Neil can just do what they did at states last year and Hoey’s/Sappey run as expected, this could be a big time win, maybe in the low 60’s for scoring. And if someone on DWT has a bad day they should still have the depth to cover it and win. So while NA is good as usual they’ll probably need some help to win.

    The 2012 WCH team pulled a huge upset on OH with what was about a perfect race for WCH. But for NA to pull the upset tomorrow they probably need a perfect race and DTW to be a bit off. My pick is DTW to run very well and win big, I guess I just like seeing a team reach it’s potential at the biggest race of the year.

    Individually Brophy is running so well I can’t pick against him. This year’s XC depth isn’t what last years was so I don’t know that he’ll match last year’s incredible record time though. And since CBE came up big and made it as a team he’ll likely cost DTW 5 points against a low team score!

    - RJJL

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    1. It's a beautiful day out there today, perfect for an upset and North Allegheny is just the team to do it.

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  4. I'm curious to see how good NA is. When Henderson beat O'Hara, it was an upset but I think many thought the teams were pretty comparable overall. If NA beats DTW this year, I think it's definitely a bigger upset in my eyes than 2012 Henderson. But not on the same upset level as 2011 North Penn. That would be the equivalent of someone like Seneca Valley or Henderson winning this year's title.

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    1. In 2011 NP ran great and OH ran poorly. But in 2012, OH ran great but WCH ran incredible. OH beat that 2012 WCH by a lot in September at Briarwood and OH won everything in its path that year leading to states. They were the far and away favorite going into states and few if any were bold enough to pick against them. DWest is similar to 2011 and 2012 OH: they should win it but they are beatable. Only 2006 Coatesville and 2013 WCH were essentially unbeatable..

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