District Recap: AAA

District One
CB East pulls it out! They grab the 5th spot to avenge last year's 6th place finish and book a trip to Hershey. I jumped off the bandwagon just in time to get burned apparently. David Endres, the teams super star freshman, had a rare off day, but it didn't matter in the end as William Schulz came up huge as the team's #3 runner, placing 45th overall. Cade Sands also had a terrific run as the freshman finished 83rd. Of course you can't underscore the importance of front running enough either. Brophy was critical as the 1 pointer and Josh Goetz followed up his league performance with another clutch run to grab 21st. Ultimately, the Seniors took the first 2 spots for this team as well as the #5 spot and got the job done.

But there are two sides to this story as now Spring Ford has to take on the mantle of 6th place in District One. It's a tough place to be as you are behind only the best of the best, but you still won't be on the line in states. My heart breaks for Spring Ford who had an incredible season, but ultimately will send 0 guys to the state championship. This team had a great story and they really ran quite well at districts I felt, they just ran into some better squads on that day. They still brought home the team's first PAC championship and likely had the best finish at districts in program history. They are a pretty young team led by a great senior leader in John Conner and they should hold their heads high after an impressive season. We haven't heard the last from them.

PS If we had a meet of champs, Spring Ford would be in due to their finish at Paul Short under last year's rule system. We gotta get an MoC.

Moving back to the action, the top four teams in the district were DT West, CB West, Henderson and CR North. Henderson and CRN did their thing at districts, punching yet another ticket to states. CRN had no one in the top 35 at the meet (in fact, if they finished 6th, they would have sent 0 guys to states) but had an incredibly tight pack (again) and came through to grab 4th. Ryan Campbell (possibly related to FL Finalist Chris Campbell) had a big day as the team's #1 and Sam Earley ran a gutsy race to finish 52nd and clinch it. A 16 second spread is pretty darn good, but they will have a tough time keeping things that tight at states. They also will need a little bit of front running help I'd imagine or they will be in danger of getting jumped by CB East (who def has front running). Still, another fantastic season for North.

Henderson looked strong, getting a great run from Jack Downing who ran a great 16:20 to finish in 43rd, providing the lift they really needed at the 3 spot. I think this entire squad could potentially improve for states next weekend, but they have a long way to go to catch the two teams from D1 in front of them. I'll be very curious to see how they stack up against some of the other smaller district champions like Hempfield, LaSalle and State College.

Then you have the top two squads, DT West and CB West. CB West put three in the top 20 and five in the top 50 to score just 120 points at the district meet. Iatarola had a really impressive day, hanging tough with the front pack and taking 10th overall. Considering how he raced at states a year ago, I think this guy could be sitting on a big breakthrough in Hershey. McDonald, the team's #5, also held his own in Hershey last year. Remember CB West was winning at the mile marker last fall at states, but then they fall off a bit over the final hills. With a little extra experience, this year's team could make a nice jump and be ready to hold on.

But catching DT West will be very difficult, especially if their top three puts on another spectacle like they did at Lehigh. Downingtown took 2-3-4 overall just ahead of Fortna for CB West, meaning in dual meet scoring they had the race won after those three crossed the line. Although their 4-5 didn't produce jaw dropping results, Ryherd and Bullock still beat out Mass and McDonald in the standings and, I thought, had very good races, especially considering these guys have historically run better at Hershey. Yes, this team does seem a bit vulnerable if one of their top three blows up, but you can say that about any school in the state really. Ryan Barton had a huge day at states last year and I'd bet he bounces back to give them an X-factor next week.

The thing I'm most interested to see at states is the Hoeys. They have never run the Hershey course and history tells us that experience does help (although it doesn't mean everything). These guys are extremely talented and after taking 2nd and 3rd at districts and breaking 12:30 at Manhattan, we know they are good enough to place in the top five at states. But how will they handle the hills and will they be able to execute a solid race strategy to stay in the front pack? It's going to be fun to watch it play out.

Meanwhile, I should probably apologize for hyping up this race to be so fast. I really thought it was going to be. Wind was apparently a factor, but I also misjudged Brophy's strategy. It appears to me, although Brophy would likely never admit it, that the plan was to chase sub 15 at leagues because it was going to be very unlikely that he lose that race. He gunned it out hard on that day and went for it, but came up just short. At Districts, he had no idea what the Hoeys were capable of (and to a lesser degree Sappey) and I think he didn't want to help them out by taking on a blistering early pace into the wind. And I'd imagine other guys were pretty intimidated by Brophy/not interested in taking the wind either and, bang, you have a slower race than expected.

Overall, Brophy ended up back in his element, ready to unleash his big kick over the final 1k or so and try and bring home the title. But Jaxson really made him work for it, as it looked like he might pull away with 200m or so to go. Jake rallied one more time and found the wheels to sprint away for the title, but I don't think it was incredibly easy. The two could have another epic duel at Hershey in a week's time.

So how many medalists will District One produce? Which guys will get it done? That's another tricky question, but considering the talent throughout the district, it's going to be a fierce battle. Sappey was top 10 at states last year and is fresh off his best race of the season so I wouldn't be surprised if he just goes off at states to grab a top five spot. You also got talented guys like Kirshenbaum who ran solid at districts but still has something to prove. He showed his potential earlier this year at foundation. Kent Hall and Spencer Smucker could be game changers as well. Smucker's run at states last year is fairly well documented and Kent Hall has found a way to edge out Smucker on a variety of occasions this year, so the twos rivalry may draw them together at states like Sappey and Knapp from a year ago.

Some other performances I really liked included Liam Galligan running to 14th place and breaking 16 minutes to get the top spot in the Central League. Remember, he was top 50 at states last year. I also was impressed by PJ Muray's ability to bounce back from Centrals to take 17th overall. That was a huge run by Murray and his best race of the season for sure. Bryton Henry and Jeff Montgomery made my sleepers list and followed through on that mark by earning a couple of clutch state qualifying marks. And how about Evan Hutton from Tennent? He wasn't the big story line out of that camp for most of the year because of the super soph Rahill, but he delivered at districts and punched his ticket to states as one of the last qualifiers. That's a great run.

Honestly, anyone who made it to states out of District One has a shot to do big things in Hershey. Don't be surprised if somebody from the low 20s or 30s just goes off at states for a big day. It's a really talented district and you have to give credit to the guys who were able to navigate it successfully.

District Two
I definitely didn't have a great read on this district, especially considering one of my early picks for the title, Franklin Cunningham, was MIA at leagues. He managed to come back for districts to try and help the defending champions get back to the state meet, however, Wallenpaupack came ready to play. Despite Cunningham's 4th and teammate Matt Houser's 1st place finish, Wallenpaupack was able to pack it in with five runners in the top 14. After a blip last year, the Wall-Es have managed to right the ship and will work hard to contend at states.

Individually, this was a big run by Matt Houser who was off to a slow start earlier this year, running behind his teammate, but has shown big improvement since and ended up getting the victory this weekend, building on a very impressive league showing. Sophomore Tyler Holcomb and teammate Hamyre Cannon from Williamsport capped an excellent season with their state qualifying performances and will return to Hershey for the first time since Foundation.

District Three
Well we are in the apologizes section of the recap posts. I was completely ready to write off Cumberland Valley this season, but after an up and down year, they came up huge at districts yet again, ending within 26 points of the district title. If anyone in Hempfield's top five had a bit more of an off day it could have been CV's race to win. Yahya Soliman had one of the best races of his career, taking off to finish 9th in this race. Now, considering that CV usually continues to improve through to Hershey, they have to be considered a threat for a top 5-10 spot now.

And then Carlisle came through as well, taking third overall over some strong teams that had beat them at Mid Penns and their own invitational. Matt Wisner continued to run strong and Isaac Kole had a solid day, but the pack really delivered, putting in just a strong enough performance to advance. They didn't fear the moment, they went out conservatively and then, ultimately, picked off the field and managed to grab a state spot.

Wilson grabbed the final spot, following up their league championship with a solid run, including a really great performance from their top three. Twin Valley held their own in this one, grabbing 5th even after graduating the majority of their pieces from last year.

I will say this, despite the fact that it was closer than I thought between Hempfield and the field, Hempfield still looked pretty darn strong. Yurchak had an excellent race out front and then they packed in a nice group of four all in the top forty. Christian Groff coming on strong in this meet was pretty transformative and I think the other pieces have the chance to improve more at states. Remember, this team won a district title last year. Now the are focused on performing well at states. They may have saved a little something extra for Hershey.

Individaully, Nate Henderson looked pretty darn good at this meet. And I'm not just talking about his hair. He ran 15:38 to win going away, getting out hard enough to gap the field and expanding the lead to 15 seconds by the two mile mark. Lefever and Shea have both been excellent this year, but it was a race for second (which Lefever won). Henderson will be dangerous at states for a top five spot and maybe more. The guy is doing some unbelievable running.

Is Yurchak a medalist contender now? This was a pretty killer race out front and I was really impressed with his 3rd place finish and sub 16 mark. That bodes very well for his chances individually at states. I thought Cupp might have a big day after his race at Mid Penns and he delivered impressively with his 4th place run. Freshman Mike Morris came up strong with a 12th place finish for Hershey, again continuing to out perform his age on the big stage. This is a really talented frosh we have here who may end up cracking the top 50 at states, putting him in elite company.

District Six
State College looked dominant at the district championships just a week after a solid win at Mid Penns. They put their entire varsity under 17 minutes including a top five under 16:50. They also added the top three spots overall with four in front of Altoona's #1 to clinch the district title. Freshman Owen Isham had another big improvement and is looking like a strong piece to add to the top five equation. Considering their rotation in the back end of their varsity, I like their ability to fill in gaps if someone has an off day.

Alex Milligan all of a sudden looks like he has returned to form. He ran faster than he did last year at this meet and beat Feffer by 15 seconds, a guy who has gotten the better of him in the last few invitaitonals. I'm curious how hard they were racing with one another, but both seem like dangerous medal threats at states.

As for Altoona, they will be sending four individuals yet again to the state meet, but couldn't quite pull out the team qualifying spot. They had five runners under 17 minutes and really held their own in this meet, but unfortunately they will end up left home as a team. Still a great season and I'm glad McCarthy will have another shot at it next year since he is a Junior.

District Seven
Remember that time North Allegheny was really good at cross country? The answer is yes for everyone who follows PA HS XC (oh, only me then?). At districts, NA took control with three in the top 8, 6 in the top 16 and 7 in the top 22 meaning they have front running and depth, a potent combination. The defending champions have to be making DT West at least a little bit nervous right now as they continue to improve their pack that looked like the only weak spot in their line up. Now the question becomes, can NA match DT West's firepower out front? Migz has been really strong this year, finishing a close second at districts, and Stupak has held his own (and had one of his best races of his career at Hershey last year). Blechman has probably gone underrated as a breakout star with a chance at state hardware while Deible, Greco and Robinson are all very capable of providing a lift in the 4-5 spot. But is the pack good enough to overcome a potentially huge advantage in front running for DT West? That's to be determined I suppose, but it will be very difficult, especially because DT West's pack is pretty good in itself.

Seneca Valley came up big for 2nd, showcasing just how good this team was in 2015. Even if Kolor hadn't competed as he had in some earlier season meets, the Seneca Valley boys still would have finished 2nd at districts ahead of Lebo and easily advancing to states. Trey Razanaukas has come on brilliantly in his past two races and freshman Seth Ketler added an impressive 18th place finish to give this team an extra lift. I'm very curious to see what they have in the tank for states. I believe the last time these two squads took 1-2 at districts, they finished 3rd and 4th at the state championships.

Mount Lebo punches yet another ticket to states and TGunz and Ian Harris led the way with a pair of top 12 finishes. This was arguably the best run of Gunzenhauser's season and traditionally he has handled the state course fairly well, finishing as the team's top man there on a variety of occasions. Their 5 spot has continuously improved with Jack Cameron kind of coming from nowhere to deliver at this spot this past week (no Potts?), but this team will need to get their front four farther up the pack in Hershey to really put a dent in the standings. It's possible, especially considering the fact that they historically run much better at Hershey than Coopers, but we will see if they can jump an on the rise SV team.

Really great seasons from a lot of WPIAL teams this year. Pitts CC was pretty impressive with their pack, but just were missing a bit of front running. Sam Gatti is a name on the rise and I've liked what I've seen from Tucker Helms this year. Chartiers Valley and Norwin also gave it a great run at districts. Czar Tarr ran huge for CV while Tyler Laughery moved up to 10th overall in a great day for Norwin. It looks like Matt O'Neill may have either dropped out or not raced and that played a role in Norwin's finish, he's been great this season and as just a sophomore, I'm sure he will be back doing big things in no time. I hope he's ok and gets back into action soon!

Individually, Nick Wolk is back and continues to be the class of the WPIAL. The guy has gone out there and taken care of business each week, setting him up to be a true title contender in Hershey. It's hard to imagine anyone beating Brophy, but as I mentioned on the podcast, Wolk is going to be geared up and ready for states while Brophy and the Hoeys are going to be looking past states at least a little bit. Wolk should give it a nice run and, if he finishes as the WPIALs top dog, you can pencil him in for a top five spot.

Migz and Stupak have looked strong this year and considering NA has at least one state medalist basically every year (and usually is knocking on the door for having 2), these guys both will be good bets to compete at the top of the field. Jake Susalla also came back out of the wood work to finish 4th in this one. Considering his ability (he medaled last year) and his strength on hills, he could also really make noise in Hershey. And there's also Mike Kolor who looked fantastic at Tri States, where he beat most of the top guys in this race. If he's on his game and healthy at the Parkview course, he could potentially be a game changer with his finishing kick.

Mark Provenzo and Joseph Westrick have had excellent seasons this year. Provenzo, the Junior from Franklin Regional, looked really strong finishing 3rd and competing with the top pack for a large majority of the race. That should give him confidence headed into states next week.

District Eight
I'm going to be honest, I still haven't found District 8 results yet (crazy to me that a district championship can't get results together, curious who is in charge of that), but we know that Allerdice won and that they dominated. Davis and Diallo took one-two at this meet and have looked very strong all season, but after that there are some question marks when you compare this squad to some of the other talent in AAA. The good news is that this team qualified a year ago so they have some nice experience. Plus Davis and Diallo finished as the team's 1-2 punch last year, over graduated teammate Floyd Nichols who I believe was district champ, so they have had some success there in the past.

District Ten
Erie Prep (AKA Cathedral Prep) grabbed the title in convincing fashion, 31 to 48, putting all their scorers in the top 10 overall. Cathedral Prep has held their own in some meets out west and is an interesting matchup with Allerdice at the state meet. I like their pack, but I'm not sure what type of front running they will be able to muster in the loaded AAA championships.

Ryan Zimmerman from McDowell and Peter Foradora from Dubois, both sophomores, fought tooth and nail to the finish with Zimmerman ultimately defending his championship. Peter had won the previous match-ups, but Zimmerman had a bit more championship experience after winning this race a year ago and that helped him out. I'll be curious if Foradora can rally at states and get some revenge and maybe surprise near the top section of the field. He ran quite well in some western meets this season already and clearly has the talent to run with or ahead of Zimmerman. Remember Dubois produced 3rd place overall finisher Bud Plazenski at the 2008 AAA State Meet.

District Eleven
The individual district title will remain with Easton as Kevin Lapsansky followed his EPC win with a title at districts, this time in a tight finish with Pleasant Valley's Seth Slavin. Lapsansky is a defending state medalist and has learned a ton from Colin Abert a year ago. He's been reasonably consistent for the past two years and shouldn't be intimated by the state field. I think the most impressive performance, however, was Seth Slavin who has now had two excellent races in a row against his district competitors and could potentially have a huge day at states. He ran the state course extremely well last year and also had a strong showing at Van Cortlandt, meaning he can peak at the right time and that he can handle hills. He came pretty close to beating Kevin in this one (although I think the wind probably sucked some life out of Lapsansky) and was pretty far ahead of the rest of the district in 2nd.

Will Alpaugh took 3rd just ahead of Dan Kyvelos (a sleeper individually who runs the state course very well) and his Freedom teammate Dan Quigley, who finished in the top 40 at states a year ago, did not compete at districts, meaning he won't be returning to states.

In the team battle, most felt that Parkland and Easton were essentially locks to return to the state meet, but the order was a bit more in doubt after Easton gave Parkland a nice run for their money at EPCs. However, Parkland put any chances of an upset away early as their top five finishers all finished in the top 10. That's a really strong showing and it was great to see frosh Nick Bower get back into the top five. Steve Kaleycik also had an excellent showing, taking 6th overall. This is a sleeper team to make noise at states after a solid showing at Paul Short and a nice early season race on the hilly Centaur course at Desales. A lot of it will come down to Kyvelos and his ability to break into the top fifty overall, but the trio of Bower-Geiger and Morgan will likely be the deciding factor. They have a lot of upside in my opinion.

I think Easton could have a bounce back day at states as well. They were 5th last year and return a few key members of that top five including Lapsansky, Sherman and Koch. They have some young pieces that have been a little up and down (possibly nervous) but should be calmer after running two big league championship meets. Ozgar has been great all season and Cosmo Cardone came out of nowhere to place 15th at Districts. Throw in soph Sheamus Hammerstone who had top 10 potential after his league meet showing, and there are some nice pieces here for Easton to follow up their 5th place finish in 2014 respectively.

District Twelve
As I mentioned on the Day One Recap Podcast and in my preview, LaSalle just seems to bring it for districts. They really came to play on race day and dominated this race (and O'Hara) with five runners in the top 8 overall, only two of last year's top 25 state finishers and a stand out performance from Archbishop Wood's Kyle Ortiz stood in the way of LaSalle's sweep attempts.

Eddie Goebel continues to be a beast on the trails. He dropped to 16:30 in what appears like slower conditions that what the crew faced a week ago on the same path. After Manhattan and PCLs he has only continued to improve to the point where he definitely has to be mentioned in the medal conversation. And LaSalle will need it. There's no reason to count this team out of a podium finish (a team from the PCL has finished in the top 3 at states every year since 2008). They are a top notch program, they have a great pack with a tight spread, they have weapons at 6 and 7 who can help on the right day and they have experience. That being said, they have something to prove at the state meet, considering they have struggled on the biggest stage in recent seasons. Evan Addison will be a key contributor as he struggled on the state lay out when they faced it at Foundation. He's been a huge part of the team's success so a bounce back race would be excellent for the team score.

It's worth noting that O'Hara had a similar moment at last year's districts and improved for states. James and Morro almost ran identical marks to their 2014 times right before they went off at states. So I have no idea if they were trying to save anything or not. James and Morro are proven medalists and I expect them to run well at Hershey.

28 comments:

  1. DTW all of the sudden is looking very beatable. After a huge win in Manhattan and a big Chesmont win without their top dogs, districts revealed some issues. If NA puts their pack of 5 in before DTW's 4/5, it's NA again this year.

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  2. Cade Sands came in 83rd, not 45th. He did run a 16:51, though.

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  3. District 8
    http://pa.milesplit.com/meets/216798/results/412927

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  4. Geiger in District 11 has been battling a physical illness the last few races. Hopefully he will be back to his normal self by States and running at the front of the Parkland pack.

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  5. I think the thing that DWEST revealed was that they are so deep, that even when their normal #4 has a bad day, their 6,7 can pick up the slack. Clearly Barton was sick or something. There's no way others that he would run that much slower than last year or this year's Chesmonts. I would look to see him back at full strength at Hershey. DWEST should roll.

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  6. I still see DWest taking Hershey. The talk however, that they were going to outperform WCH, 2013 at districts was nuts. Recall that WCH had all 7 finish sub-16 in the top 30, I believe.
    I guess going into States the mystery is still Hoey (and which one)vs. Brophy, or will someone else emerge victorious.

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    1. DWT had the stronger top 3 over 2013 WCH, by a lot. DWT #4 guy Barton had a bad day and why some of their 5-7 weren't closer to low 16's is a mystery. Of course, 2013 WCH didn't have questions or excuses, they brought it at both districts and states that year.

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    2. DWest 2015 top 3-Hoey 15:09 2nd place, Hoey 15:13 3rd place, Sappey 15;21 4th place.
      WCH 2013 top 3-Russell 14;59 1st place, Barchet 15;29 6th place, Knapp 15;38 11th place.
      After readin above 2 statements, I had to look. Seems DWest may have had better top 3 average, but not by a lot. Also interesting to not that WCH 7th runner that year would have been DWest's 4th this year. As we've seen so many times, it's not the rock stars on the team that necessarily win it for the team. At the elite levels it often comes down to the 5th guy or beyond. I'd expect and hope Hershey brings that level of tight competition.

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    3. You are off on their times. Jaxson had 15:13, Josh 15:21 and Dappey was 15:36. 15:09 was Brophy.

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    4. I felt DTW had a good chance to outperform the 2013 WCH team at districts and I guess with hindsight it was "nuts", but it seemed very possible going in. Based on his mile speed and Carlisle, Manhattan and Chesmont performance Barton seemed like a guy who was certainly capable of going sub 16:00 at Lehigh, which would have been at least top 20 and had DTW in the low 60's for team scoring. WCH had 60 in 2013. Unfortunately Barton didn't have the day I thought he might, but it happens. I did think DTW's 5-7 would be packed up a little lower too though. States might be more interesting than we thought but I'm sure I'm still picking DTW by a decent margin.

      - RJJL

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    5. He's back, *Illuminati Music*

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    6. Not sure what happened to Barton but agree he was top 20 material at Districts, probably top 15. Hopefully it was just one of those bad races and not an injury because they'll need him at states.

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    7. Whoever said DTW top 3 had stronger performances than the 2013 WCH team at districts should understand the times are pretty close. WCH top 3 were 4 seconds faster actually. Their places were not as impressive but it's relative to the speed of the race in that particular year.

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    8. ^ Race conditions differ from year to year. 2013 was absolutely perfect. 2015 had high wind and a course messed up and very uneven from previous races in rain. Dwest was better.

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    9. Actually, it was much windier in 2013. The course was a little firmer in 2013. Dwest was not better. 3 guys under 16 is not better than 7 guys under even if you say Barton could have done that if he was healthy. 4 is still not as good as 7 and 60 points is better than 84.

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  7. NA - a history of coming up big at States. DWest, not so much. This states has a 2011/2012 feeling to it.

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    1. This year is going to be a nightmare trying to accurately predict the order of the top 5 teams. DT West is certainly a favorite, but teams like NA, CBW, SC, etc. that have had historically great days at Hershey could spoil their party if they don't have a particularly good day.

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  8. DTW is going to have in 3 in before anyone else in the team battle has 1 in. Even if Barton is sick or banged up, their next 3 guys are good enough to put at least 2 of in the top 50. Remember, they got 4th last year after almost not qualifying. If you have 3 in the top 10 and your next 2 in the top 50. That wins the meet going away. CBW and NA are good, but not that good. CBW scored 120 points in a not as deep as usual District 1. NA is a great program, but is not as deep as they've been in the past. They only have 1 potential top 10 guy and another who could medal. Everyone else is battling for 4th.

    To the poster above CBW has only been to the State meet once so you can't say that they've had historically great days. They were 6th last year. Solid, but not great. State College has not been in the top 2 so you can't say that they've been historically great either. NA can draw on that history.

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    1. SC has won 5 state championships. As for Hershey 3 of the guys currently on the team have had an overall time pr on that course. Who else prs on Hershey.

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    2. and also that poster was said top 5, not mentioning top 2 and SC was fourth a few years ago so :/

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    3. When was the last time SC won a State Championship? Never at Hershey. Historically great is not the top 5. I've never related greatness to 4th or 5th. NA=great at Hershey. SC=good but not great.

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    4. I think the poster was suggesting that SC is comparatively better at Hershey than other courses, not that they are better than NA as a team on that course. What place would they have been if it had been on a course like Lehigh or big spring?

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  9. Odds for team title:

    DTW: 60%
    NA: 20%
    CBW: 15%
    SC: 8%
    CRN: 5%
    Hempfield: 1%
    Many other dark horses under 1%

    - KickXP

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    1. Hempfield is good, but looking at a few factors I'll change the 1% to CBE. The point is that DTW is really good, but other teams do have a chance.

      - KickXP

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  10. Dtw, cbw, na, hempfiled, crn

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  11. A) Ryan Campbell is FL Finalist Chris Campbell's brother. Frankly they seem to have a similar development. Ryan is growing the way Chris was and is learning how to run still. I'm excited to see him next year.
    B) KickXP's %'s seem pretty spot on.
    I'm on the fence about Downingtown West right now. On one hand I want to say: "I thought they were a better team than this," but they've got two runners in the top 5 (if not top 3) in AAA and a 3rd who should handily be in the top 10. This top 3 very well might be better than the Trio from North Hills (Wow I feel old now with all of these 2011 references). Their 4-5 are still strong and they've got strong 6-7 pieces to hold down the fort. Now, I also know that this team is really focused on the Regional meet. If this is the case than resting runners or harder workouts could be in play here.

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  12. I like to think that things are gonna shake up after the top 3
    DTW
    NA
    CBW
    Hempfield
    Seneca Valley
    State College
    Lasalle
    Henderson
    Cumberland Valley
    Council Rock North

    I'm most likely forgetting someone, but whatever. That list isn't to make SV (4th) look good or CRN (10th) look bad. I see 4-10 being separated by less than 85 points or so. The 10th place team at this meet could be one of the best teams in the state over the course of the past 3 years.I gave the west teams the edge on this one because A. I think there tends to be a bit of eastern bias on this blog (not the writers so much as the readers) and B. Anyone who knows anything about PA layout would naturally give the edge to a guy from the west when it comes to a hilly course like Hershey. This list doesn't even include teams like CBE, Parkland, and of course O'hara. I've gotta consult with the statistician Jarrett on this one, but between the dominance of DTW and the depth of solid teams this year, this will be one of the most exciting team races the Hershey course has ever seen.

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