A Team Predictions

A
7. Mercyhurst Prep
This may end up being too low when all is said and done. Mercyhurst Prep has finished 5^th each of the past two seasons and has once again put themselves in position to compete for a top finish. They graduated Sebastian Curtin, the runner-up at last year’s championships, but his brother Noah seems poised for a big day at states. Although Jimmy Zimmerman has really come along brilliantly in his junior season, this squad will really struggle to match the 2^nd-11^th finish of their top two a year ago. That being said, this team shows up in the big moments, beat a strong Saegertown team at districts and just seems to have a magical fight in them on Hershey’s hills. However, it’s worth noting that they have two sophomores and a freshman in their 3-4-5 spots from districts and those guys are pretty untested on the big stage. If they slip, I expect one of the District 9 teams to usurp them for this spot.

6. Elk Lake

I was super high on this team coming into states a year ago. I really liked their pack and their program brings it for states. However, their pack was pretty far back in the state field and, despite a nice spread, they ended up getting beat by the front running of WT, Sewickley and NEB. That being said, they were still a strong top five team in 2014 and this year’s squad seems poised to be just a strong. I think the front running will be better as Cody Oswald is another year stronger and more experienced to lead the pack and Hunter Bedell has had some great moments this season. Bretty Carney has come on brilliantly in the last few weeks and should add a nice dimension to their group. That being said, Hunter Watkins (or Parrett or Moon) will need to deliver in the five spot. If this team doesn’t end up with a runner in the top 25-30,  every point will matter from the back end of their scoring five.

5. Seneca

The last few seasons, Seneca has been the kings of District 10, but ultimately, Mercyhurst Prep has had their number at states. Seneca won the district title this year and last year, but has had to settle for 6^th twice at Hershey. They also dropped a sick 4x8 last outdoor track season, only to be denied a spot in the finals at states. This has been a young team (and still is, they return their top five runners from districts) so it’s natural to have some growing pains. I think this may be the year they put it together when the lights are brightest. These guys are too talented to be left out of the top five for the third straight year. The Myers twins both medaled at Hershey last year and, although it won’t be easy, I think they can repeat that finish. That leaves some pressure on Gabe Jarema in the three spot and sophomores Sepnowsi and Post to step things up for their pack and finish the job. Ultimately, the sophomore Post may swing this one. He, Jarema and Stepnowski ran together through two miles at districts, but spread out over the final stretch with Post finishing as the team’s #5. If he can hang close to Gabe, those will be critical points in the state title race.

4. NE Bradford

This is another team I might have ranked too low. NE Bradford looked fantastic at districts, cruising to the victory against a fairly strong District 4 field. They have two guys with state medals in Levi Upham and Garret Smith and those two finished districts as their 3-5. Bradford has a 16 second spread at districts (with their 6^th man, Zak Smith making it an 18 second spread 1-6) and they should be able to pack it in at the state meet and challenge the top programs. However, I’m a little worried about their fire power out front. Considering the top three teams all have at least two guys that seem like legitimate threats for the top 10-15, NEB is going to really need to either pack things tightly or have a breakout performance from their top dogs (Casey Ellis is my top candidate). They didn’t have a single runner in the top five at districts (Ellis was 6^th) so I’m a little nervous they will give up too much ground in the early going and not be able to make it back up. That being said, it’s not crazy to imagine an NEB pack starting in the twenties and ending in the fifties, a pack that even the best schools would be hard pressed to defeat.  
 

3. Winchester Thurston

And so we come to this. In my mind, the clear top three teams are Thurston, Sewickley and Camp Hill. It’s crazy to me how eerily similar this race is setting up to last year’s. Winchester Thurston has a big day at districts, but they are missing one key piece to solidify their status as title favorites. Sewickley wins the district and looks poised to win a state title. Last year, Shaun Hay came back just in time to swing the title to WT. This year, it was once again Shaun Hay who the notable absence from WT’s district silver medal squad. If he runs at states and can perform anything like he was earlier in the season, this pick ends up looking silly. With Hay, WT has four legitimate medal threats and a capable five. Without him, they put serious pressure on three freshmen to survey the Hershey hills and deliver a huge 5^th piece. Last year, WT may have stole a title from Sewickley, so maybe this year they give it back? Even if Hay doesn’t run, it’s still important to note that Thurston has three guys who conceivably end up in the top 10 at the state championships. That is going to be tough to beat, regardless. If they can find a bit more magic from the back end of the line-up, they could still potentially grab repeat golds.

2. Camp Hill

It’s been a terrific season for Camp Hill. Cooper Leslie has come on very strong after an excellent track season and Blake Behney and Ian Gabig are really holding their own at some big time invitationals. Behney was 9^th at states last year and if he can match that type of performance again in 2015, it’s very likely Camp Hill ends up with three runners in the medals. That puts the pressure on Hill’s 4-5 spot with Dan Shank and Patrick Dorsey/Matt Little in the spotlight. Shank had a huge day at districts and if he can find that type of day again at states, it will be huge for this team. Dorsey and Little have each displayed potential in the last two meets which gives me confidence that CH won’t have any glaring weak links on race day. I think this title race is going to be very close, maybe just a couple points, and ultimately I have Sewickley squeezing it out, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Camp Hill holding the trophy.

1. Sewickley Academy

This year’s Sewickley team is built a bit like last year’s team with Mackey out front as a game changing frontman and then a pack of solid pieces behind. The extra boost this year’s squad has is at the #2 spot where Ben Clouse seems poised to finish in the top five at states along with Mackey, giving them an extra low stick to combat WT and Camp Hill’s expected front running dominance. At WPIALs, this team made a huge statement with their second straight title. They also displayed a much improved pack as Henry Meakem, Austin Duffeld and Mason SanFlippo all looked vastly improved from Foundation (where the team finished 3^rd behind Camp Hill and WT). If Tim Hanlon can have a step up day in Hershey, I like this team’s pack. It won’t be easy to pull off the win, especially because, on paper, the team’s chasing them in the standings have really strong #3 runners. If SA is going to win the title, they will need to get the most from the 4-5 spot and make some ground on the competition.
 
Ultimately, as I said, if Hay comes back I think Winchester is the clear favorites, however, Sewickley is motivated, hungry and determined. They run this course well and have to be eager to get back to Hershey and take back the title that they were denied a year ago. That extra bit of fire could provide the x-factor in what may end up a tight race for gold.