AA Team Predictions

AA
7. Mars
I really think the AA state title landscape after the #1 team is pretty wide open. There is a large crowd of squads, all who have talent, but might be missing a little something that would make them champions. I ultimately settled on Mars for the 7^th spot because I believe their pack will give them an edge against some of the heavier front loaded squads they will be competing with for this final spot. I also think they can run better than they did at districts when a few of their young pieces had an off day. The depth on their roster will be especially valuable on the difficult Hershey course where the probability of bad days happening multiplies. The x-factor in this one might be sophomore Caleb Keys who ended up as the team’s #6 at districts but has the potential to be in their top 2-3.

6.Central Cambria

Again, I’m really kind of spit balling here trying to round out my top 7, but I like what I’ve seen from CC this year. Cambria was 7^th in the Blue Race at Foundation, but has since made big strides, including getting strong boosts from Max Murin and Mike Walwro at districts. If those two and Javaunte Neumann have solid days and cut down a few seconds on their Foundation performances, plus Descavish adds a top 10 individual finish, this team should be dangerous in the final standings. Of course, mastering the Hershey course is no easy task so there’s potential this team won’t have the rise I expect in comparison to their previous run at Hershey.

5. Knoch

Knoch ended up tied with Pottsgrove at the Foundation meet earlier this year, a team that HG Prep and Bishop Shanahan handled at Districts. However, Knoch was missing Junior Aidan Neigh who has been a critical part of their pack and you can make an argument that Pottsgrove was a stronger team at Foundation than they were a month later at districts. Plus, Knoch’s top three have continued to improve and gain confidence, particularly Max Freyermuth who placed 3^rd at WPIALs. But questions still remain about Knoch’s depth, even after a strong showing at WPIALs, where they won a second straight team title. Isaac Davanzati could be a real wildcard as he was the team’s 7^th man at districts but was their #4 earlier this year on Hershey’s trails. If they have a breakthrough at 4-5, considering the potential of this team’s top 3 I wouldn’t be stunned if they are in the running for the podium.

4. Bishop Shanahan

Shanahan is making it’s state debut and, although they ran foundation last year, they did passed on the meet in 2015 so their star freshman Jack Ettien will be making his debut on the course. BS has showcased a strong pack all season, winning the Paul Short White Race and the District One AA race (with the Paul Short White Race producing faster times in arguably slower conditions), but may not be ready to maintain that pack on the Hershey hills. This team’s primary focus all year was likely just surviving the district championships, so who knows how much they will have trained for the brutal Parkview hills.

But all that being said, I like this team’s potential. They have a strong pack, especially if Seamus Breslin joins the group, and could potentially have a 10-15 second spread. At Paul Short, we saw four guys under 17 minutes, so there is upside to consider. District One AA has also done a strong job holding its own at states in the past. My guess is they will go out relatively conservatively and try and pick people off in the second part of the race. That can either pay big dividends or the team will have to expend too much energy passing guys and run out of gas to get home. It’s what makes the Hershey course so difficult to race and why experience is so important. All things considered, I slotted this team a cautiously optimistic fourth.

3. Dallas

I’m just not sure what to think. On the one hand, Dallas has looked fantastic this season, the only team to truly challenge them out of AA is the defending champions York Suburban. They are a fantastic program that was here at states in 2014 and performed admirably. At Foundation, they put three runners in front of Grove City’s #1 and didn’t give any ground to their pack. Adam Borton has had a great stretch of racing and suddenly becomes a medal contender alongside fellow sophomore Jack Zardecki. This team has the top three to hold its own with the depth to back it up.

However, I’m afraid to go too big with this squad. They are still incredibly young. Their top two runners are sophomores and their 4-5 from districts were both freshmen. Although I see a bounce back racing coming at Foundation for Josh Wyandt (who is also a sophomore), there is still a lot of pressure riding on the shoulders of an incredibly young group of guys. The X-factor in this race will definitely be Junior Jason Culp. He’s been one of the big reasons this team has been so strong this season, bolstering the top three, and now as one of the oldest members of the varsity squad, he will need to deliver on the big stage and set the tone for his teammates to follow.

2. Grove City

The biggest question for Grove City heading into the state meet will be their front running. A year ago, they finished 2^nd at states, but had no runners in the medals. This year, after placing no runners in the top 20 at Foundation, the same concerns were looming. However, I feel pretty good about the chances that Grove City improves their medal odds this time around. And, hey, even if they don’t, we know it’s still possible for them to grab to silver without a medalist. The spotlight will be mainly on freshman Jonah Powell, who impressed thus far this season with a couple second place finishes at Grove City’s invitationals as well as a 2^nd place finish at the D10 championships.  Although it’s rare to see freshmen excel at states, in AA last year we saw three freshmen crack the top 50 and five in the top 60. Plus we even saw a freshmen state medalist, Christian Babo (ironically from district 10). Can Powell handle the big stage and compete for a medal as the team’s front runner? It’s at the very least possible.

But the big x-factor for me is Junior Braydon Pyle. Last year at states, he had a huge last mile, saving the squad’s medal chances and placing a crazy 28^th overall. He was also the 2^nd sophomore to cross the line at the state meet in 2014. That’s a huge race. If they get a repeat performance this year, I think this team is back on the medal stand.  If not they will need a new Pyle to step up and have a breakthrough.

1. York Suburban

Although DT West is a fantastic team, I think York Suburban is the biggest favorite for the state title out of all three races. The defending champions have continued to excel in 2015 and, considering their district race, have five extremely talented runners to utilize at Hershey. Quentin Schorr ran excellently at Big Spring and now threatens to be a top 50 finisher at states if things break right. Wagner, Ohl and Mears all were top fifty guys in 2014 and freshman Jarrett Raudensky has given us no reason to doubt he won’t continue running in this pack of studs. I also just have a feeling that District 3 could have a big weekend. The move Big Spring I think really makes a difference. If Mears comes through and ends up in the top 10 or so in this race (very possible), they will have the front running and the pack.

Of course, anything can happen out at Hershey. The course is very difficult and there is admittedly a 30 second or so drop off from Schorr to Haynes/Kerr which could potentially swing the race. YS has proven over the past year or so that they show up for the big meets and can handle the pressure, but you never know if a fall or something will alter the landscape of the race. But for now, I feel pretty comfortable picking York Suburban to repeat.