Updated Etrain Top 50 Rankings: Week 9 (11/16)

By: Garrett Zatlin

PAST RANKINGS THIS SEASON
Week 4 (10/12)--No changes
Week 5 (10/19)
Week 6 (10/26)--No changes
Week 7 (11/2)
Week 8 (11/9)--No changes

KEY
·      Bold: Had performances that influenced a strong change in the rankings
·      (#/#): First number indicates how much the individual has moved in the rankings. A plus means they have improved in the rankings. A minus means they have regressed in the rankings. The second number indicates where they were ranked the week before
·      (Wasn’t Ranked): Was not ranked the week before.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50. Dallin Farnworth, Freshman, BYU (Wasn't Ranked)
-Despite his youth, Farnsworth has been a solid leader for BYU the entire season. He was 9th at Washington and 16th at Wisconsin. He has been one of the most underrated freshmen this entire season and it's great to see that he's continuing his impressive season after placing 9th in the Mountain region. He might not be the next Jason Witt or Jared Ward, but he's been a crucial piece of the puzzle for BYU this season. 

49. Antibahs Kosgei, Junior, Alabama (Wasn't Ranked)
-Kosgei surprised myself and many others two weeks ago when he took the SEC title in a fast time of 23:24. Now, he showed off a slightly more tactical side and won the South region with a time of 30:25 (5:03 pace for 9.725k). It's clear that Kosgei has been under the radar and is a winner. The only issue is that we haven't seen him race top-tier competition. That lack of exposure to top talent worries me about how he'll do at nationals. Nonetheless, his past few races indicates that he should be on this list and at this point, I don't see why not.

48. Izaic Yorks, Senior, Washington (-9/39)
-See #45

47. Jordy Williamsz, Senior, Villanova (-2/45)
46. Robert Denault, Senior, Villanova (0/46)
-Villanova will not being going to nationals as a team despite sending three individuals. That has got to hurt for these guys who have consistently done all they can to lower the scoring. Still, they will join Tiernan at Louisville after Denault placed 5th and Williamsz placed 9th. These two have been towards the top of the results all-season but haven't really beaten anyone that would put them above or below the 40th to 50th range (in terms of rankings). However, if the race does turn tactical and the pace slows enough, look for these guys to make up lots of ground the last mile or so. 

45. Hayden Hawks, Senior, Southern Utah (+3/48)
-Nothing too exciting here as Hawks places 10th overall in the Mountain region, and gets his team a well-deserved spot to nationals. As I've said all-season, Hawks is a great leader for a team that lost Nate Jewkes, but lacks the ability to run with the top guys like Jewkes did. 

44. Henry Wynne, Sophomore, Virginia (-4/40)
-(Explanation is matched with #49) These two are really the only runners on this list that give me difficulty when I'm ranking them. They had such great regular season performances, but seem to be plateauing as the races get longer (although not dramatically). Yorks finished 14th in the West region despite a very slow pace that would've suited a miler like Yorks. Did he simply know that Washington was in a good enough position to go to nationals? Maybe, but it still has me questioning whether or not he was capable of handling the increase in distance (maybe I'm just over analyzing it). Wynne on the other hand, finished 12th overall in the Southeast region and was much faster. He showed he can handle the distance increase with his 4:49 pace. Will he be an All-American? I don't think so, but he is certainly someone to watch for.

43. John Mascari, Senior, Indiana State (-20/23)
-Mascari simply hasn't been at his best this season. The man that was once ranked in my preseason top-10 ended up as one of the NCAA's 'last chance bids' as I like to call them. He was set to be the first man out until the NCAA decided to give him one of the two spots to nationals. He has underwhelmed this season which might be why I'm being a bit harder on him than other runners. Could he still be an All-American? Definitely, but his season's performances haven't necessarily indicated that as sure-thing.

42. Ben Rainero, Senior, Cornell (+5/47)
-A nice race for Rainero who finished 5th overall in the Northeast region. He finished behind the Syracuse Three and Kieran Clements (Iona). Rainero has been strong all season and is a gutsy runner willing to run with anyone. That said, I'm uncertain as to if Rainero can get an All-American spot. He doesn't have one true racing style that seems to suit him so it's tough to say what will happen to him if the race is fast from the gun or tactical (it will probably be tactical).

41. Omar Hassan, Senior, UMBC (Wasn't Ranked)
-It's unfortunate that I missed this guy the entire season, but better late than never. Hassan placed 3rd in a very underrated Mid-Atlantic region. The two guys he lost to are both currently ranked in our top-15 so I can't imagine he was all that disappointed by his finish. This season, Hassan has finished every race in the top-10. His 8th place at Paul Short, 4th place at Princeton, and now 3rd place at regionals are his most note-worthy performances. Although his schedule wasn't stacked, he proved in one race why he deserved to go to nationals. 

40. Grant Fisher, Freshman, Stanford (+1/41)
-Stanford decided to not run their top freshman this past weekend and rest him for the big dance. It's an interested move on their part. The youngster won't have to race back-to-back 10k's, but also doesn't have a chance to get adjusted to the distance. It's an interesting call by Coach Milt, but considering the success they've had in the past with this method, I wouldn't question it too much.

39. Kyle Eller, Junior, Air Force (Wasn't Ranked)
-Eller has been flying under the radar for a while now*. The junior from Air Force has come on strong with each meet that passes. First it was a 15th place at the Washington Invite. Then it was 22nd place at Pre-Nats. He continued to improve at the Mountain West Conference where he placed 3rd. Now, he surprises everyone with a third place finish in a stacked Mountain region ahead of his own teammate Patrick Corona, the CSU duo, and the entire Colorado Buffalo team. Although some tactical running might have been involved, Eller has proven that he deserves to be on this list and it's my fault for noticing that sooner. For me, he's on the verge of being an All-American (which I suppose is why I have him at 39th). He's been underrated, but I'm curious to see if he can keep this up when the gun goes off in Louisville.

*Unintended pun when you consider that he's in the Air Force.

38. Dylan Lafond, Junior, Illinois (-6/32)
-Ok, so maybe I got a little too excited about his 3rd place at BIG 10's. Lafond finished 8th in the Midwest region and secured himself a spot to NCAA's. Despite not capitalizing on the confidence from his BIG 10 performance, I still believe Lafond is a potential All-American. However, he's never faced the best D1 runners all at once (Lafond is a transfer from a D2 program). His unfamiliarity with some of the competition will leave Lafond as a wild-card on Saturday.

37. Morgan McDonald, Sophomore, Wisconsin (-3/34)
-McDonald joins his teammate Schrobilgen as one of the guys on this list that isn't making the trip to Louisville (that's still tough to believe). McDonald has been a huge low-stick for a team that has struggled all season so to not see him at NCAA's will be disappointing. McDonald is also facing the same fate Doughty (Oklahoma) had last season as being the most talented individual to not make NCAA's (and be the first man out). Luckily, he's got time since he's only a sophomore, but you gotta be disappointed for the guy who went all out for his team each and every race this season.

36. Thomas Awad, Senior, Penn (0/36)
-It wasn't pretty, but Awad got the job done at Mid-Atlantic regionals by placing 4th overall. For someone who has struggled in his training this season and hasn't been up to par, he's been having some really gutsy races. Moving up to the 10k had to be more of a struggle if you consider his lack-luster training*. He still isn't at his best, but he gets a lot of credit for going all out for his team and getting them an auto-qualifying spot to NCAA's.

*Awad's training is not something I have observed. He mentioned in a news article how his training hasn't been as productive as other seasons. I will try to find the article.

35. Kevin Dooney, Senior, Yale (+3/38)
-Typically, I base a lot of my rankings on the overall season an individual has. Dooney, however, is an exception to that rule. Every year, the man comes up big in the post-season and is probably one of the most successful runners to make that adjustment. After a sub-par regular season, Dooney placed 2nd at an unusually good Heps meet and now placed 8th in a Northeast field crowded by Syracuse and Iona. Props to him for making the adjustment. History indicates that another All-American finish is in his future. 

34. Jim Rosa, (Rs.) Senior, Stanford (Wasn't Ranked)
-It's taken a while, but we finally have the return of Jim Rosa! His absence from racing this season had me convinced that he was injured (once again) and done for the year. That, however, does not seem to be the case as he finished 6th in the West region. While it's fine to get excited for Jim's return, it's also important to note that it doesn't look like it was a serious effort (5:03 pace) and that he may not be fully adjusted to racing quite yet. Then again, Coach Milt has done this with a lot of his athletes so I can't exactly criticize the decision.

33. Brandon Doughty, Senior, Oklahoma (+2/35)
-Doughty finished a solid 4th in the Midwest region and earned not only himself, but his team, a trip to nationals. That has got to be a great feeling for a guy that was one of the most talented individuals left out of last year's national qualifying. Happy storylines aside, Doughty's consistency and leadership should get him an All-American spot come Saturday.

32. 
Cerake Geberkidane, Sophomore, Oklahoma State (-1/31)
-Geberkidane had a solid race in the Midwest region race where he settled for third behind two very solid runners in Scott and Burcham. Like a lot of the Oklahoma State guys, it's tough to know just how good they are after staying on the DL the entire regular season. That said, Cerake has been a great leader for a talented team and should get an All-American spot at nationals. I feel like he's a top-25 talent, but there just hasn't been enough notable results during his regular season to indicate that.

31. Meron Simon, Senior, NC State (+6/37)
30. Sam Parsons, Junior, NC State (+3/33)
-NC State continues to roll with these two at the helm. Simon and Parsons finished an outstanding 4th and 5th place (respectively) at Southeast regionals. I've been saying for most of the year that they haven't provided a lot of spark throughout the season. Now,  it looks like they've taken it to the next level and found that spark. These guys are for real and will most likely place very well at nationals. Simon has to be the most valuable transfer of the season. 

29. Chartt Miller, Sophomore, Iona (+1/30)
-Miller finished 10th in the Northeast region which seemed to be a race where the top teams took it a bit easier knowing they were going to be making the trip to nationals. He's been on fire all-season so this race doesn't have much an influence on his spot in the rankings.

28. Malachy Schrobilgen, Junior, Wisconsin (-10/18)
-Coming into this season, did anyone think that the Badgers wouldn't make NCAA's? I mean c'mon, they were ranked 4th in the nation! A big part of that collapse was due to the struggles with Malachy Schrobilgen. He had a solid race at the Adidas Wisconsin invite, but had injury issues at BIG 10's and Great Lakes. He is talented and no one is going to argue that he's not a top-50 runner in the nation. However, his injuries and struggles in the post-season (when it counts the most) simply has him plummeting in my rankings. Watch for him to make a storming comeback during track season.

27. Lawrence Kipkoech, (Rs.) Freshman, Campbell (-3/24)
-It was a bit of an underwhelming race for Kipkoech who was 11th in the deep Southeast region. Luckily, due to six teams making it out of the region, Kipkoech got the second 'at-large' bid to nationals. When you look at his entire season, he's been great in some races, but inconsistent in others. Will he be able to handle his first cross country experience of racing the most talented runner in the NCAA? I guess we'll have to see.

26. Lane Werley, Senior, UCLA (-1/25)
-A bit of an off day for the typically consistent Lane Werley who was 16th in the West region. His 16th place was a bit of a close call. If for some reason  UCLA did not make NCAA's, Werely would've been the first one out of nationals for the region. Still, he's had a great season and I think he'll regain his All-American status by the end of this Saturday. 

25. Jerrell Mock, Sophomore, Colorado St. (+3/28)
24. Abbey Jefferson, Junior, Colorado St. (+3/27)
-The CSU duo continues to keep the Rams alive as Jefferson and Mock placed 5th and 6th respectively. It's tough to say just how much of an effort they were putting into the Mountain region race, but considering their pace 4:49, it doesn't look like they were going all that easy. While they didn't do anything mind-blowing, they still stay as some of the most consistent runners in the nation with the exception of Jefferson's Mountain West race. 

23. Patrick Corona, Senior, Air Force (+3/26)
-Corona continues to impress me as he finished 4th in a tactical race at the Mountain region. He has been a great leader for this Air Force squad and probably one of the more underrated guys this season. It's tough to say exactly how well he'll do at NCAA's, but I think it's safe to say that barring any accidents, he'll be an All-American.

22. Jacob Burcham, Junior, Oklahoma (+7/29)
-This guy continues to surprise everyone. While he did some solid work throughout his freshman and sophomore years, there was no indication that he was going to have this kind of season. There was also no indication that he was going to place only one second behind Marc Scott at Midwest regionals to be the Midwest runner-up. I wasn't sure if he would be able to succeed at the 10k, but he not only succeeded at the 10k, he actually improved. He has huge momentum heading into nationals which is dangerous for anyone racing him.

21. Erik Peterson, Senior, Butler (-2/19)
-It was a slightly off day for Peterson who placed 5th in a loaded Great Lakes field. He's been extremely consistent all season so I can't be too harsh on him. I thought that the 10k distance might have been the difference between him getting a win over Jonathan Green, but in retrospect, I was wrong. Still, the guy has a great season overall, and I expect him to thrive at nationals and contend for a top 20 finish. 

20. Connor Winter, Senior, Colorado (+1/21)
19. Morgan Pearson, (Rs.) Senior, Colorado (+1/20)
-Pearson has quietly contributed to Colorado's success this season. He was 8th in the Mountain region which is only his third top-10 XC finish in his entire collegiate career (according to TFRRS). The same goes for Winter who has done a solid job of being a low-stick for his team this season (but I guess all Buff's are low-sticks aren't they?). These guys may not have flashy times or top finishes, but they are the foundation for the dominant Colorado Buffalo's. Plus, their experience is a big advantage at NCAA's.

18. Shaun Thompson, Senior, Duke (+4/22)
-I predicted that Thompson would most likely do better in the 10k and it's my fault for not actually writing it down. He was able to hold off Kibichiy and grab 2nd at the Southeast region. It's tough to say just how good this guy is. Clearly he's talented, but how many of the top guys will he be able to contend with at nationals? If the pace is honest he could be very close to a top-10 spot.

17. Ammar Moussa, Senior, Colorado (-7/10)
-Moussa placed 15th at the Mountain region. Like a lot of other guys, he probably shut it down and took it a bit easier knowing that his team was set to go to nationals. While, I'm not putting too much stock into this race, I just like the other guys ahead of him this season. He'll show up at nationals, but in terms of the overall season, the others on this list have simply been better.

16. Martin Hehir, Senior, Syracuse (+1/17)
15. Colin Bennie, Sophomore, Syracuse (0/15)
-As I mentioned with Knight, 'Cuse took the Northeast regional race as easy as possible and still came out with the top three spots. These guys are loaded up-front and have been so consistent all season. They deserve to be here.

14. Edwin Kibichiy, Junior, Louisville (-1/13)
-Kibichiy takes third in a deep Southeast region behind Curtin and Thompson. Kibichiy got the best of Thompson at ACC's, but it seems like the change to 10k has given Thompson an edge which makes sense considering his racing style. Still, Kibichiy hasn't had a bad race this season and there's not too much of a reason to move him all that much.

13. Jonathan Green, Sophomore, Georgetown (+1/14)
-Green continues to impress as he places 2nd in the Mid-Atlantic region behind a very impressive Patrick Tiernan. It's good to see that someone as young as Green can still have such a great impact even with moving up in distance to the 10k. His youth and inexperience on the big NCAA stage could be a potential concern, but otherwise, he's a proven contender. 

12. Mason Ferlic, Senior, Michigan (+4/16)
11. Matt McClintock, Senior, Purdue (0/11)
-Ferlic beat out McClintock for the win at Great Lakes which was essentially revenge for his defeat at BIG 10's. For Ferlic, this is a great sign that he's capable of getting a win. It's clear that Ferlic is extremely talented, but I questioned his ability to beat some of the best names throughout the season. This past weekend, however, proved otherwise and he showed that he's capable of winning. Despite the victory, when you compare the overall seasons of both McClintock and Ferlic, the man from Purdue has simply been better and gets the edge over Ferlic. Maybe the change to 10k suits Ferlic better. I guess we'll find out if that's truly the case at NCAA's.

10. Joe Rosa, (Rs.) Senior, Stanford (+2/12)
-Not much to report here. It looks like Stanford shut it down and cruised in for the win which involved both Rosa's and McGorty taking spots 6-7-8 (Joe was 8th). Overall, the Rosa's been having a very solid season and there's not too much of a reason to keep him outside the top 10.

9. Pierce Murphy, Senior, Colorado (-1/8)
-Murphy places 7th in the Mountain region. As I said with Koech, it's tough to say if the race played out to be tactical at all. It makes sense that the duo's from Air Force and Colorado St. would made bigger efforts to get towards the front due to the uncertainty of if their teams would qualify or not. Colorado, on the other hand, was essentially a sure-fire auto qualifier and I imagine they took it a bit easier. Tactical running aside, Murphy is still a top-10 guy in my mind. He's been racing like it the entire season.

8. Jonah Koech, Freshman, UTEP (+1/9)
-The super frosh continues to roll through the NCAA with a win in the Mountain region (although it's tough to say if the race was tactical at any points). Still, It's amazing to think about the impact this kid is having right now as just a freshman. He's showing a lot of Cheserek-esque signs. He might be a year away from contending for a top-5 finish at NCAA's, but don't sleep on him this year.

7. Marc Scott, Senior, Tulsa (0/7)
-Nothing exciting here as Scott out-duels Jacob Burcham in the Mid-West region. If things get tactical at NCAA's, then Scott could have an opportunity to upset some of the biggest names. He's experienced enough to do it too...

6. Sean McGorty, Junior, Stanford (0/6)
 -McGorty finished 7th in the West region which became very tactical. He was the in the lead pack for a good portion of the race, but must've been told to ease off the gas when Stanford realized they were going to qualify for nationals. I'm not looking into the West results too heavily considering how tactical and cautious some teams/individuals were. 

5. Justyn Knight, Sophomore, Syracuse (0/5)
-Knight cruised to an easy win in the Northeast region. The goal was (apparently) to take the race as a hard workout. At 5k, Knight made his move and crossed the line to get his regional title. This wasn't one of his tougher races, but it's a good confidence booster for a guy that was out-kicked at Wisco and Pre-Nats.

4. Patrick Tiernan, Junior, Villanova (0/4)
-Tiernan blew away the Mid-Atlantic region this past Friday with a huge win over Jonathan Green. Tiernan made his move at 8k and never looked back. He won in a time of 30:15 which was 26 seconds better than Green. Tiernan looks like a very dangerous sleeper pick at NCAA's.

3. Anthony Rotich, Senior, UTEP (-1/2)
2. Thomas Curtin, Senior, Virginia Tech (+1/3)
-Right now Curtin is just simply the better runner. Curtin has defeated Cheserek, Knight, and the entire Southeast region. Rotich still has a great resume this season, but his wins haven't been as impressive or as convincing as Curtin. Rotich was able to cruise in with his teammate Jonah Koech and settled for 2nd at the Mountain region (I'm not looking too heavily into that).

1. Edward Cheserek, Junior, Oregon (0/1)
-He won the West region. Not much else you need to know.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just Missed
John Dressel, Freshman, Colorado 
Michael Vennard, Sophomore, Boise State
Ben Saarel, Junior, Colorado
Brian Barraza, Junior, Houston
Michael Clevenger, Senior, Notre Dame
John Whelan, Junior, Washington St.
Trent Lusignan, Senior, South Dakota State


Who To Watch
-Harry Mulenga, Junior, Florida State
-Japhet Kipkoech, Senior, Louisville
-Jake Leingang, Junior, Oregon
-Matthew Maton, Freshman, Oregon
-Austin Dalquist, Sophomore, Arkansas
-Tait Rutherford, Senior, Columbia
-Joseph Stewart, Senior, Miami (Ohio)
-Nick Tuck, Junior, Penn
-MJ Erb, Junior, Mississippi,

Kicked Off
Michael Vennard, Sophomore, Boise State (Last Ranked 42)
Aubrey Myjer, Senior, Columbia (Last Ranked 43)
Chris Walden, Senior, California (Last Ranked 44)
John Dressel, Freshman, Colorado (Last Ranked 49)
Ben Saarel, Junior, Colorado (Last Ranked 50)

New Additions
Dallin Farnworth, Freshman, BYU
Antibahs Kosgei, Junior, Alabama
Omar Hassan, Senior, UMBC
Kyle Eller, Junior, Air Force
Jim Rosa, (Rs.) Senior, Stanford

Biggest Surprise of the Week
Jacob Burcham, Junior, Oklahoma

MVP of the Week
Thomas Curtin, Senior, Virginia Tech

Notes
-Burcham gets 'Surprise of the Week' for his ability to not only survive at the 10k distance, but thrive as well.
-Curtin gets 'MVP of the Week' for running the fastest time of the weekend.
-In the most recent update of the rankings (Week 7), Myjer, McDonald, and Schrobilgen were the only one's who are not making the trip to NCAA's.
-Keep in mind that some races became tactical and some individuals took it easier in order to save themselves for nationals. Not all of these results can be taken at face value.
-Watch out for a prediction contest/fantasy draft in the coming week!
-Only two guys enter NCAA's undefeated this season (Tiernan and Scott). Cheserek is not one of them.

3 comments:

  1. In regard to Kosgei (Alabama) his regional time should be 4:54 pace I believe, making it much more impressive

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for pointing that out. TFRRS had 5:03 as the pace for some reason and I just assumed it was right. But you're also right in saying in saying that it makes his performance that much more impressive.

      Delete
  2. Kosgei's pace was 5:03. That region isn't a full 10k.

    -GBC

    ReplyDelete