7. West Chester Henderson
Statistics say District One will likely end up with 5 teams in the top 10 at states. Although I’m not completely sold on the back half of the district one teams this year, I’m not one to question math. I think CB East has a lot of potential to make noise at states: they have the low stick, a solid #2 and potential to improve on their district race if Endres returns to form. CRN’s pack is encouraging, but their front running is a wildcard. And then of course there is West Chester Henderson. Henderson was a narrow 3rd at districts, helped big time by Spencer Smucker’s top 10 finish and a big race from Downing. I actually think Henderson’s squad is built better for states than for districts. Smucker showed it last year and, based on the track times and race results I’ve seen, I think it might be true for the other members of this squad as well. I’m definitely a little nervous about the back end of their line-up (especially because more than one key varsity member has never run this course), but there isn’t a clear cut team that I can say with confidence will beat them.
I
will say this, I expect things to very tight between spots 7 through 12+ on
race day. Henderson, CB East, CRN, Seneca Valley, Mt Lebanon, Cumby, Parkland,
Carlisle, O’Hara …. It’s a stacked group people.
6. State College
This
is potentially way too low (or high?) for State College. This is a really good
team with two guys I expect to be competing for hardware. Alex Milligan looked
really, really good at districts and based on the way he has shown up the last
three state championships he competed in (16th last year, 1:53-4:17
double outdoors), I’m not about to doubt this guy’s ability. That’s huge to add
a potential top 10 finisher alongside Feffer, who has placed among the big guns
at Mid Penns and Foundation . Owen Wing has had an excellent season and took
care of business against the D6 rivals at Districts. Then the team unleashed a
pack of sub 17 guys at districts, displaying a nice arrangement of depth that
could be critical on Hershey’s nightmare of a course. The x-factor here is Owen
Isham, the freshman who was the team’s #4 at districts. He had an excellent
race at Foundation last time out so he shouldn’t be afraid of the Hershey
course. However, he is still a young runner on the big stage for a team chasing
some really strong packs in Hempfield and LaSalle.
5. Hempfield
I’ve
been on the bandwagon for Hempfield since the Pre-Season and was surprised to
see Cumby getting so much more love in the milesplit coach’s poll. Of course
after Districts, Hempfield has to be looking over their shoulder a little bit
as their old nemesis from District 3 looks poised to jump them at the big dance
once again. Last year at states, after narrowly winning the district tile in a
score that was probably eerily similar to what we saw at districts this year (I
got curious and looked it up: this year was 141-167, last year was 150-154 so
kinda similar), they ended up falling well back in the standings. But this year
is not last year. For starters, the 2014 Hempfield squad was a surprise champ
at districts, a team that needed to be in top form just to survive and advance
to states. That’s certainly not true for the 2015 edition of the squad, which
rolled at Big Spring Bull Dog Invite and Paul Short. Also, the 2014 Hempfield
squad had to run Hershey back to back weeks, a design flaw that had destroyed
district champions in the past. Again, this won’t be happening in 2015.
Of course,
it won’t be easy for Hempfield. They have a strong top five and Justin Yurchak
has made huge strides as a front runner, but their pack wasn’t quite far enough
up the district field to pull away from Cumberland Valley, a team that had been
hovering outside the top 10 squads in the state prior to districts. The key to
a top finish at states will be getting a top notch #2 runner performance out of
Coby Mattes or Nick Norton (or maybe Joey White). Hopefully, that pulls the
pack along and takes some pressure of Yurchak to be superhuman out front like
he was at districts. And of course another strong showing from Christian Groff
would be a big help as well to keep a consistent presence around the 5 spot.
4. LaSalle
Just
going to throw this disclaimer out there, even though you have likely heard me
say it 1,000 times. Since the PCL joined the PIAA in 2008, they have always had
a team finish in the top 3 at the state championships. That’s a stretch of
seven years so it’s not like it’s some fluke. That’s why I took a good look at
this LaSalle team before slotting them here in the 4 spot. I’m a fan of this
team and it’s ability to run in a strong pack. Last year, I was incredibly tempted
to pick them for 2nd or 3rd because I was fascinated by
their spread and depth. Their ability to pack run is the main reason why they
grabbed silver at the 2008 state championships in a stunning upset over future
NXN Finalists North Allegheny (as well as the D1 Teams including my own Upper
Dublin squad).
But it
cuts both ways. Last year’s team struggled to get a front-runner in the loaded
state race and ended up finishing 10th overall. In 2009, LaSalle had
an unreal spread with 5 runners in and around the top 50, but they ended up
third and off the podium because they couldn’t get anyone in the medals. A
tight spread, in many ways, is only as valuable as it’s front runner. The good
news is that Eddie Goebel is having one heck of a stretch run as a front
runner. He ran excellent at Manhattan and beat a couple of state medalists at
Districts to win the title. Is he a medal threat this year? If so, how good can
LaSalle be?
I’ll
leave this with one final thought. From 17 flat to 17:20, a grand total of 55
runners crossed the finish line at last year’s state meet. That’s an average of
nearly three runners a second. From 16:50 to 17:10, 50 runners crossed the line
(places 51-100). That’s an average of two and a half runners per second. If you
have a tight pack, with all three or four or even five guys placing around one
of these zones a difference of just one second person can be worth as many as
fifteen points. Fifteen points was six points more than the difference between
5th and 9th at last year’s state championships.
That’s
why a good pack can be so valuable.
3. CB West
I’ve
been all about CB West in 2015, keeping them as my #2 ranked team basically all
season until today. Here’s what I like about CB West: they’ve been a fantastic
top five all season. The back end of their varsity, Mass and McDonald, have
been excellent this year and both have proven they can go off on hilly courses.
Ben Smullen in the three spot has been great, filling in nicely for graduated
Ian Davies from last year’s team. Fortna and Iatarola were both in the top 50
at states a year ago and both have taken a big step forward in 2015. Iatarola’s
last few races have been superb, I really feel like he is a medal contender in
Hershey (he was in 30th place at 2 miles last year). That’s a killer
team that could win states a lot of years.
CB West
was actually leading at the mile last state championships, but ended up falling
back to 6th. Last year’s team didn’t have quite the pack that this
year’s squad should, plus this year’s team will be much more experienced in round
two (although it’s worth noting that neither Smullen nor Mass has never raced
this course before). I’ve seen some flashes of clutchness from this squad in
the past (districts last year, 4x8 at Penn Relays, 4x8 at MoCs), but I haven’t
seen them launch a big, wow race at states. That’s what they will need to jump
into the top two. I think the biggest x-factor here is Fortna. He’s got the talent
to run with the top 10 or so guys in this field, but last year finished in the
mid 40s, needing a big last mile just to get back in front of his teammate
Iatarola. If Rock rocks, I think this team will be able to roll.
I’m
sorry, that was lame. Please don’t stop reading.
2. North Allegheny
The
defending state champions are going for a repeat championship this season.
Considering that the other best teams of this decade like Henderson and North
Penn each has back to back championships on their resume, the Tigers are likely
hoping to get their own double gold. But it will be an uphill battle (sorry,
the puns are almost done I promise) against an excellent Downingtown West team.
North Allegheny’s championship squad a year ago featured two top 10 runners,
another borderline medal contender and two top 50 types. On paper, this year’s
team isn’t incredibly different. Marc Migliozzi and Jacob Stupak both have top
20 potential and I think few would be surprised to see Migz in the top 10. Sam
Blechman has been excellent this season and, although he didn’t compete for the
squad at last year’s state meet, he did a fantastic job at Foundation,
finishing among the top 10 or so runners. If he continues to follow Stupak and
Migliozzi, he will be a third piece around the top 30 or so runners in the
state. That’s an excellent top three.
It’s unclear
to me exactly how strong their 4-5 will be. Between, Greco, Dieble and
Robinson, I think this team will get a pretty solid 4-5 punch. Dieble was just
outside the top 50 a year ago, Robinson won the Foundation JV race in
impressive fashion and Greco has been a consistent presence in the team’s
varsity. Considering how this team has delivered at states in the past, I would
be surprised to see these guys fall out of contention. However, a lot can
change once you start diving into the 50-100 range, so these runners will have
to be focused and gritty over the final mile.
When
you crunch the numbers, NA has the pieces to be title contenders and to win
most years. But I think that DT West is a bad matchup. If they are going to
beat West, they are going to need to break up that top three and then really
utilize their pack to make up ground. Honestly, I think NA and CB West will be
closer than the title fight (the battle for second could end up quite close),
but that’s why you run the races. These guys are champions and they will bring
their “A” game on race day.
1. Downingtown West
Downingtown West has been one of the most compelling teams to watch in 2015. As I’ve said to others, their top three is really something special and at districts, I think we saw just how good they were for the first time. Taking 2-3-4 in District One is no joke, especially when the “slowest” of that trio is the #2 returner from last year’s state championships. Now the team’s 4-5-6-7 are not all-time greats, but they are still really strong runners who can hold their own against any other team’s pack. I’m surprised that people have seemed to have more doubt after watching districts, rather than less. DT West’s 4-5 beat CB West’s 4-5 by 11 total points even though CB’s best hopes of making up ground was in this zone. Plus West’s usual #4, Ryan Barton, ended up as their #7 so you can argue DT West’s 5-6 were holding their own with West’s 4-5. That’s pretty good considering I’d been touting CB West as the deepest team through five in the state for most of this year.
But I
think people are skeptical of Downingtown not because they think their 4-5 are
weak, but they notice, if there one of those top three has an off day, they
become less of an invincible team and much things become much tighter. It’s not
a smooth drop off from one man to the next in the same way it is for other
teams. Yet, this still doesn’t concern me that much. Think of it this way even
if someone like Josh Hoey ran 42 seconds slower, Downingtown still beats CB
West by 20 points at districts. Of course some might argue that North Allegheny
is at least 20 points better than CB West which makes this more of a point of
contention.
It’s
worth noting that Downingtown West ran relatively poorly at districts last year
before bouncing back in a big way at states to finish 4th (and
nearly take third). That means guys like Ryan Barton and Jake O’Neil (the team’s
2-3 at states last year, but the team’s 6-7 at districts) could see a nice
bounce back performance next week. The bigger question mark is how the Hoeys
will handle the state course. They’ve never raced it before, unprecedented for
a pair of runners projected to finish in the top five at the state meet. These
guys are both excellent runners and Jaxson has a state title while Josh grabbed
a state medal as a freshman (as well as a clutch indoor states DMR anchor leg)
so I don’t think they are likely to fold under the pressure, but you just never
know how Hershey will attack it’s victims.
There
are plenty of ways this thing ends up close. One fall or slip or off day makes
things interesting, especially if you think North Allegheny or CB West has a
big breakthrough up their sleeves. I’m not convinced that either of those squads
has a 4-5 that is significantly better than DT West’s 4-5 (especially if Barton
ends up back in the top 40) so in my opinion DT West will get the W behind the
strength of their top three. But Hershey is a monster of a course and on its
trails anything can happen.
There’s
only one thing that has been certain at the state championships in cross
country. Nothing is certain.
Happy
State’s Week.
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