Nike Northeast Regional Preview

by Jarrett Felix

            Personally, I’ve always been more interested in the team dynamic of cross country. I see XC as more of a team sport and track as more of an individual affair. Sure, I’m generalizing here, but the thing that fascinates me the most about XC (besides the variations in course) has always been the team battles throughout the season. That’s the spirit that was utilized to create the Nike Cross Nationals (NXN) and, for our purposes today, the Nike Cross Northeast Regional (NXNE).

            First, a brief history lesson (because this is how I roll). If you hate history, scroll down to the paragraph that begins, “Well now that the history stuff is over …”
             In 2006, CoatesvilleSenior High School dominated the PA landscape, putting five guys under 15:50 at Lehigh and placing the same five in the top 18 finishers at states (back when there were 2 classifications rather than 3). Back when I was a freshman in high school, there was something called a Nike Team Nationals (NTN) where teams (and only teams) competed for a national title the week before Foot Locker Nationals. Teams were selected, not based on a regional meet qualifying system, but instead on a bid selection process. That Coatesville team was fortunate enough to receive a bid, they went out to Oregon and, as you might already know, C-ville brought a national championship back to Vania.
            After the 2006 season, it became clear to NTN officials that a pure bid process was too subjective of a system to properly represent the objective sport of cross country. So, for the 2007 season, the championships introduced a series of qualifying meets (including the Nike Team Northeast Regional) at which runners could qualify for the national championships by placing in the top 2 at their respective regions. To account for variability in regional depth, there were a few at large bids available to teams outside the top 2 (the northeast region and Pennsylvania have benefited from these on a couple occasions).
            But there was still an issue. Some regional meets for Nike fell on the same day as those for Footlocker, forcing an uncomfortable decision from the top runners in the region. For example, GFS’s Max Kaulbach was a potential Footlocker Finalist, but sacrificed that dream to try and help his team punch a ticket to Oregon. He placed 2^nd in his regional meet, however, because GFS did not make the cut (they placed 5^th), his season ended. So Nike added an individual qualifying component to the procedures. The top five runners in each region who were not on teams that qualified for nationals, earned an individual spot to the national championships in Oregon. PA benefited from this change immediately as Brad Miles earned an individual qualifying spot at the 2008 regional meet, placing 6^th overall.
            With the addition of individual qualifying spots, the Nike Northeast Regional was now an attractive location for top tier talent and a reasonable alternative to the Footlocker Regional championship. As a result more top teams were willing to travel to Bowdoin Park, knowing their top individual had a fall back option if his teammates struggled. Plus, more and more individuals, unattached from a competing team, were not taking a trip to NXNE because they preferred the meet to Foot Locker. Guys like Aaron Gebhart and Griffin Molino, who were not even on teams that qualified for states (South Williamsport may not have even had five runners), both competed at the NXNE regional instead of Foot Locker, placing in the top 10.
            All in all, we have had 5 team qualifiers for NXN and 6 individual qualifiers since the 2008 season. We have had 31 top 20 finishers at the regional meet since 2007 as well as 10 top 5 team finishers, most recently North Allegheny in 2014. One final, important note: New York has its own separate region and is therefore not competing against Northeast runners for qualifying spots.

            Well now that the history stuff is over, let’s talk about this year’s meet.

            The biggest story line will center on the 2015 PIAA state champions, who dominated the state meet three weeks ago with a commanding top three and two more finishers hovering around the top fifty. That would be the boys from Downingtown West, who have been virtually undefeated thus far despite facing top competition at Carlisle, Manhattan and, of course, states. Based on their resume, they seem like a strong bet to make it Oregon for the national championships with the potential to even snag an at large spot if necessary, depending on how close of a 3^rd place they ended up.
            There has been plenty of talk about how strong this team is on the hypothetical “PA All-Time” list and a dominant state meet certainly bolstered this team’s resume. However, to truly enter the top tier of squads in history, they need a big time performance at the regional meet. A win would be huge: PA has never housed the winning team at Wappinger Falls.
            Although experience on a course can be overrated (just ask the 2-3 finishers at Hershey), it is worth noting that Jaxson and Josh both competed on this course in 2013 (as a sophomore  and an 8^th grader respectively at Malvern Prep) and DT West ran this meet in 2014 as a team. It’s almost important to remember that DT West has made no secret about the fact that they have been targeting regionals and nationals rather than states this year. Say what you will about O’Hara in 2012, but they claimed to be peaking for Regionals/Nationals and backed it up with a 2^nd place finish at the regional meet and a 5^th place finish at the national championships (but, perhaps more importantly, it cost them a state title). Clearly, a focused training plan paid off in the long term for O’Hara and I think it could have a similar effect for West.
            And I’ll just throw this out there because why not. I want to say this just complete speculation/food for thought. The Regional meets are technically club teams not official high school teams (that’s why you see names like Warriors TC in the results) in order to avoid violated state rules. That set up allows for 8^th graders to compete in the regional meets (like Josh did in 2013). Therefore, it’s at least possible that Big Hoey and Middle Hoey could be joined by their little brother Jonah Hoey on this team’s varsity roster. I seriously, seriously doubt he will compete and I have no idea how well young Jonah would run, but I’m just tossing it out there for fun.
            As much as DT West has proven they are a title contender at the regional meet, I suppose there are some concerns one could voice about the team headed into the meet. Although they have underrated depth on the roster, at both districts and states there was a noticeable drop off from 5 to 6 on the score sheet. I’m not too worried about this because the members of that top five rotated a bit on both occasions, however, it is something that could potentially be a weakness if an extra off day happens.
            Last year’s team did not wow on this course, but, to be fair I’ve been told it was brutally slippery out on the course and the results back this up: many of the top names struggled, including 2014 runner-ups Conestoga and their #1 Andrew Marston. Ryan Barton (who did not race at 2015 states) was actually the Whippet’s #1 runner at this meet last year as Sappey had a rare off day (and the Hoeys were not around yet).
            That presents an interesting extra variable as a huge race from RBar at the 4/5 spot would go a long way towards securing that coveted national bid. Barton placed 37^th in team scoring a year ago, ahead of big names like Morro, Dahl, Raehsler, Sappey, Murray, Wills, Swart, Stupak and others. Plus, he is coming off a killer 3200m at Henderson (3^rd behind the mammoth performances of Dahl and Hockenbury) and must have a little extra chip on his shoulder after being left off the top seven at states. That could be a huge boost to this varsity team’s back end. A race from O’Neil like he had at both Manhattan and States (the two most comparable meets to what we will see at Bowdoin) would also be a game changer.
            And it’s worth noting that off days can happen, even to the top 3 on this squad. Jaxson, Josh and Henry have been money this season and close to invincible against the best of the best. These guys deserve credit for their consistency and clutchness, neither of which should be taken for granted headed into the all-important regional qualifier.
            I will go out on a limb and pick these guys to grab team gold, but it will not be easy against this loaded group (most of which are looking for revenge after Manhattan).

            With entries still unavailable to yours truly, the rest of this will be fairly speculator. Based on my discussions, it looks like North Allegheny and CB West (the 2-3 from states) are passing on post season racing while 4^th place LaSalle and 5^th place CRN both have a slew of entries at Footlocker (and therefore are highly unlikely to show up at NXN). That takes out our top five teams from states. I’d also bet that the A and AA champions/top teams are done as they have yet to show over the past decade or so that they are interested in pursuing this meet. The good news: GFS, the independent league champions and Cardinal O’Hara, the somewhat surprising 6^th place finishers from states, are both likely to toe the line at Regionals.

            O’Hara may not be as strong as they have been in years past, but they peaked at the right time for a big run at states, behind a pair of excellent front runners in James and Morro. James had a strong showing at this meet last year and it wouldn’t surprise me if he runs well again in 2015. I’m not sure they have the depth to avoid being buried in this loaded field, but they were 7^th last year and ran strong in 2013 (after getting 2^nd in 2012) so I think they will represent the state nicely.
            Meanwhile, GFS has been quietly lurking all season, preparing for this meet. They have arguably a national qualifying favorite in Nick Dahl (who picked up the W on this course earlier this season) and they dominated the independent championship scene this year. Grayson Hepp is a solid #2 and this team has turned heads peaking properly at this meet in the past, including an epic upset in 2009 that led to an NXN birth. I don’t think this year’s squad is as good as that team, but they will have something to prove against the top PIAA schools and will be looking for redemption after Manhattan. They have past experience on this course and in this meet which can never be overrated.
            Both teams are in contention for top 10 position if they click right on race day, but both are big longshots for a top five finish based on my personal analysis.
            A couple other possible teams to toe the line: WC Henderson who has competed the last few years and Hempfield, the D3 champs, who had a few competitors at Henderson’s 3200m that are not entered at Foot Locker. Again, without entries I’m just spit balling.     

            Although I have no idea which individuals will toe the line, I’m very confident that top athletes Nick Dahl, Jaxson Hoey, Josh Hoey and Henry Sappey will be starting the race in Bowdoin Park this weekend. All four of these guys could potentially place in the top 10, a position that is usually good for borderline national qualifying. Neither Dahl nor Sappey had a killer day at last year’s meet in the sloppy conditions, so both have something to prove at this meet. Dahl, particularly, has a target on his back. He’s had some strong wins this year (including a 16:19 on this course earlier this year) and he is fresh off an absolutely monster 9:03.2 3200m. But Dahl struggled in his biggest race, the 4000m race at Manhattan. I like Dahl’s odds for national qualifying (I think last year he was one of my sleeper qualifier picks all season), but, to this point, his track 3200ms have been unreal while his XC credentials are not as strong. That all changes if he follows in the footsteps of Sami Aziz (he’s been faster thus far this year at most check points) who qualified for nats out of GFS in 2012.
            Jaxson, Josh and Sappey have rolled together through the past two meets (finishing in that order) and although Sappey has really killed it his last two times out, I feel like the Hoeys are just a slight step ahead of him: and that step might be the one that separates national qualifiers from non-qualifiers. Jaxson ran 16:03.8 here as a sophomore (finishing 12^th) during his last healthy XC season which is a mind blowing mark: it’s faster than 4 different past individual qualifiers ran and 7^th in the last 9 seasons (behind 2 Tony Russell marks, Griffin Molino, Kevin James and Max Kaulbach). As a sophomore this year, you can argue that Josh has been ahead of where Jaxson was at the same age, meaning he is a top 10 contender in his own right on this stage. Josh beat Dahl a year ago at Independents and beat Jaxson at Manhattan not too long ago, i.e. he’s proven he can beat PAs best talent at this meet. His 15:49 at states was pretty underrated as well. It’s not only the fastest time by a sophomore on that course (by a long shot), but it also came off a relatively tame first two miles. And 15:49 is the same time Tony Russell ran in 2013 before he won the regional.
            I think the Hoeys both end up in the top 10 or so with Jaxson being in contention to maybe win this thing (of course I have no idea how good the competition is, so that might be ambitious). He has gone toe to toe with Jake Brophy the last two weeks and I happen to think Brophy is an extremely strong runner (not exactly a controversial opinion). He’s run this course well before and he has been training through states, looking to peak right around this moment. Could we get a pair of regional champions this year at both meets? I suppose anything could happen.
            Ultimately, I’m guessing DTW gets in as a team so the Hoeys and Sappey don’t have to worry about individual bids. Meanwhile I think Dahl ends up somewhere around 12^th-15^th and just misses out on a national bid.
            Some sleepers who could be involved are guys like Spencer Smucker, Ryan James, Rob Morro and Justin Yurchak.

Top times on the course in year's past (again, national qualifiers in bold)

Tony Russell 15:46.4

Tony Russell 15:51.7*

Griffin Molino 15:55.2*

Reiny Barchet 15:55.8*

Kev James 15:58.5*

Max Kaulbach 16:01.5

Jaxson Hoey 16:03.8**

Wade Endress 16:03.9

Kev James 16:05.9

Aaron Gebhart 16:12.3*

Jim Belfatto 16:13.2

Sami Aziz 16:14.1

Wade Endress 16:15.2*

Reiny Barchet 16:16.4

Gus McKenzie 16:18.4

Nick Dahl 16:19.46*

Gus McKenzie 16:20.0

Aaron Gebhart 16:20.4

Dan Savage 16:21.0

Kev James 16:22.1**

Alex Knapp 16:22.3*

Brad Miles 16:22.5*

Reece Ayers 16:22.8*

Sami Aziz 16:23.6

Nick Smart 16:25.0

Brad Miles 16:26.8**

Matt McGoey 16:27.6

Ernie Pitone 16:28.1