Updated Etrain Top 50 Rankings: Week 7 (11/2)

By: Garrett Zatlin

PAST RANKINGS THIS SEASON
Week 4 (10/12)--No changes
Week 5 (10/19)
Week 6 (10/26)--No changes

KEY
·      Bold: Had performances that influenced a strong change in the rankings
·      (#/#): First number indicates how much the individual has moved in the rankings. A plus means they have improved in the rankings. A minus means they have regressed in the rankings. The second number indicates where they were ranked the week before
·      (Wasn’t Ranked): Was not ranked the week before.
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50. Ben Saarel, Junior, Colorado (-29/21)
-Saarel did not run with the team this weekend and if I'm a Colorado fan, it gives me a reason to worry. No one is sure Saarel will be back for regionals (or even nationals for that matter). Even if he is, will he be ready to contribute to the point-scoring the way he has before? It's a big question for a Colorado squad that beat Stanford by only 11 points. Fisher had an off-day and Dressel was at his very best. If Dressel folds under the pressure and Fisher steps up, we could (let me repeat) COULD see Colorado fall to the Cardinals. Ben Saarel better get back real quick.

49. John Dressel, Freshman, Colorado (Wasn't Ranked)
-When the season began, who would've thought that the best freshman in the nation would be a Kenyan from UTEP? When the season began, who would've thought the first race for Fisher in a Stanford uniform would be during conference week? When the season began, who would've thought that the top freshman at PAC-12's this year was going to be Dressel? I'm pretty no one had all three of those right. The freshmen this year have been unpredictable and Dressel continues to contribute to that uncertainty. With Saarel gone, the Buffs needed someone to step up in order to hold off a surging Stanford squad hungry to make the upset. Not many suspected that 'step-up guy' to be John Dressel who finished 46th at Pre-Nats...but no one told that to the Buffalo freshman who had a huge breakout race and placed 6th overall in one of the best conferences the nation has to offer. I'm only keeping him at 49th right now mainly because I don't know which John Dressel we're going to see at regionals. The one who was 46th at Pre-Nats or 6th at PAC-12's?

48. Hayden Hawks, Senior, Southern Utah (-4/44)
-It was an easy day at the office for Hawks who cruised through a calm pace for the Big Sky title. Nothing much more to note.

47. Ben Rainero, Senior, Cornell (-13/34)
- I got to give this guy credit. He had a lot of guts by going out there and grinding out a hard pace like I thought he would. It made total sense too. Awad was not nearly in the fitness he was last year, Dooney was not having a great regular season, Tuck had no experience as a top guy in big-time meets, and there were still questions as to whether or not Myjer was a legit contender. Taking the pace out hard and dropping everyone seemed to be the right move. Unfortunately, it didn't play out as planned and Rainero fell off his own pace after a persistent Awad stuck with him and took the pack with him. Rainero ended up fading to 4th. It was a great race for him and I really admire his courage to leave it all out there. He's moving back a bit for his lack of execution and because I think I over-ranked him during the last update.

46. Robert Denault, Senior, Villanova (-4/42)
45. Jordy Williamsz, Senior, Villanova (-4/41)
-Nothing exciting here. Denault and Williamsz finished 4th and 5th respectively at BIG East's which was their expected placement when you consider the rest of the field. A lot of other big-time performances push them back in the rankings so don't think that they are being penalized for their racing.

44. Chris Walden, Senior, California (+6/50)
-Walden was on the verge of being kicked out of the rankings last week after an unexciting 6th place at Roy Griak and a sub-par performance at Pre-Nats (42nd). If he didn't pick it up, he was going to be off the list. However, instead of falling off like I thought he would, Walden rallied and placed 10th at PAC-12's (only a half second behind 9th place). Fun fact: Walden placed 10th at PAC-12's last season before absolutely dominating the post season and placing 17th at nationals. He doesn't have a lot of history like Dooney, but the history he does have points to only positive things in his future. 

43. Aubrey Myjer, Senior, Columbia (Wasn't Ranked)
-When Myjer placed 19th at Wisconsin, some weren't sure if it was a fluke or not. Did he just a have one good day or is he on the rise? Myjer answered the critics this past weekend by pulling off a third place finish and leading the Lions to the title. Myjer might be the most improved runner in the nation this season and it couldn't have come at a better time for a Columbia team that might have a shot at nationals. 

42. Michael Vennard, Sophomore, Boise State (-3/39)

-The BSU Bronco took 5th at the Mountain West conference this past weekend. It wasn't anything special and considering the CSU duo and Corona were ahead of him, I'm not gonna move him back too much. I would, however, liked to have seen Vennard place 4th ahead of Wyoming's Aaron Derner. 

41. Grant Fisher, Freshman, Stanford (-12/29)
-Isn't it crazy that a freshman just finished 11th in the most prestigious conference in the nation, yet he's getting penalized in the rankings for it? Am I the worst or what? Still, Fisher had his first race with the big boys this past weekend and while many expected him to be top-5, he couldn't even hang in the top-10. It was still a very solid performance, but that experience factor is playing a role in the post-season meets. Things will only get harder as the races change to 10k. It'll be interesting to see how he handles the pressure.

40. Henry Wynne, Sophomore, Virginia (+7/47)
39. Izaic Yorks, Senior, Washington (+7/46)
- Yorks continues to show that he is more than just a track guy with a massive 3rd place finish at a loaded PAC-12 meet. While not as monumental, Wynne holds his own with a 10th place finish at ACC's. So shouldn't these guys be lower? At least Yorks right? Typically, yes. That would be the case. However, the 8k's are now over and the milers must adjust to the longer distances once again. If they want to take advantage of a fast ending, they must run another 2000 meters in order to apply that speed. I see that Wynne and Yorks are in some outstanding shape right now, but I'm still not confident that they can do what they have been at the 10k distance. Maybe I'm harping on the distance change too much. Maybe I'm just being too overly-critical and not giving the love these guys deserve...and there's a good chance that that is the case. Yet, until I see a race at the 10k distance, I'm ok with keeping them here.

38. Kevin Dooney, Senior, Yale (Wasn't Ranked)
-I am a big believer in consistency. I believe it is an indictor of how someone's regular season will end and how they will perform in the post-season. For Kevin Dooney, that method is thrown completely out the window. As reliable a method consistency is, history is the best indicator. It is the trump method when anyone makes predictions. The All-American from Yale has struggled this season with a 16th place finish at Panorama Farms and a 54th place finish at Pre-Nats. So what did I do when making my predictions? I looked back at Dooney's post-season races. During his sophomore year, his best performance during the regular season was 28th against some light-competition. But during the post-season? 8th at Heps and then an 11th place finish at regionals that would qualify him for nationals. What about his junior year though? He had some solid performances like placing 27th at Pre-Nats, but nothing that really caught anyone's attention. But the post-season? 5th at Heps, 3rd at regionals, and then 34th at nationals to give himself All-American status. So what can we learn from this? We learn that for Dooney, the guy is a post-season stud and that regular season matters very little for him. He was 2nd place at Heps this year so is it safe to assume he'll make it out of regionals and improve on his All-American finish? History says yes.

37. Meron Simon, Senior, NC State (+8/45)
-See #33

36. Thomas Awad, Senior, Penn (+7/43)
-Welcome back Tommy Awad! The Penn Quaker admitted that he hasn't been in his prime this season and his training hasn't been where he's wanted it to be. However, he went into Heps with no fear and took the title off of a fast pace set by Cornell's Ben Rainero. Gutsy running by him. While the win is great, his regular season inconsistencies still has me worried about the post-season, especially if the races bump up to a 10k and his training hasn't been going as well. Will he be able to keep up? Could we see Awad go to NCAA's, but this time as a team qualifier and not an individual qualifier? That would be something no one saw coming.

35. Brandon Doughty, Senior, Oklahoma (-3/32)
-The Oklahoma Sooner placed 4th at BIG 12's behind a duo from Oklahoma State and his own teammate Burcham. Last season, Doughty was the first man out for NCAA qualifying which had to hurt. Now, it looks like he's set to qualify for nationals and contend for an All-American spot. But with his teammate Burcham now exhibiting a great display of fitness, could Doughty be pushed out of NCAA's once again...by his own teammate? Maybe I'm just a drama-monger, but that would make for an interesting conversation.

34. Morgan McDonald, Sophomore, Wisconsin (+2/36)
-The emerging Badger sophomore placed 5th at BIG 10's in a very deep field. McDonald has shown that he is the future of this Badgers squad with consistent low-stick performances and front-running abilities. He is still a year away from contending for a BIG 10 title, but he's a great ace for a team that is desperate to get as few points as they can.

33. Sam Parsons, Junior, NC State (+4/37)
-Throughout the entire season, NC State has stayed very quiet. They've been doing consistently well but we're never really that flashy. Parsons and Simon have been some of the most consistent runners in the nation, but never really stood out as top-3 contenders in any race. I'll reward them for their consistency after top-10 performances at ACC's. Parsons placed 7th while Simon was 9th and gave the Wolfpack a low enough score to beat out Virginia. Leadership gets points in my book.

32. Dylan Lafond, Junior, Illinois (Wasn't Ranked)
-You've got to love it when guys like this breakout. Lafond might be the final piece of the puzzle for an Illinois squad that has been somewhat irrelevant for years now. At BIG 10's, Lafond stayed close with the guys upfront and used his strength to place third. He wasn't a contender with McClintock and Ferlic, but he showed that he was no joke and a true threat top-level threat. Now he has confidence and a big race coming up. Don't be surprised if he mixes it up with the top-5 at regionals. Who knows? Maybe he's a sleeper pick for the win...

31. 
Cerake Geberkidane, Sophomore, Oklahoma State (-3/28)
It's tough to say how seriously Oklahoma State took this race. I think it was clear that they were going to win, so was this a full effort? Cerake placed third overall which is the first race he's had this season where he didn't win. I'm not sold that that was his best race and I have a feeling he'll contend for the title at regionals. He reminds me a lot of Tiernan.

30. Chartt Miller, Sophomore, Iona (0/30)
-Nothing exciting here as Miller runs with his pack and sweeps the conference. 

29. Jacob Burcham, Junior, Oklahoma (+2/31)
-Burcham has officially (in my mind) over-taken Doughty as Oklahoma's leader this season. He placed 2nd at BIG 12's and has consistently run solid race after solid race. His miler speed has been a big advantage for him in the regular season, but I'll be curious to see if he can keep it up for the 10k races. 

28. Jerrell Mock, Sophomore, Colorado St. (-3/25)
27. Abbey Jefferson, Junior, Colorado St. (-3/24)
26. Patrick Corona, Senior, Air Force (+14/40)
-Mock takes Mountain West title. Patrick Corona is runner-up. Jefferson bombs the race and takes 8th. So how do these rankings make sense? For one thing, I have robbed Corona for a good portion of the year. He was 5th at Washington, 12th at Pre-Nats, and now second at Mountain West. Overall, he has had the best season and deserves to be ahead of the CSU duo who have been solid, but not thrilling. Jefferson stays ahead of Mock for what I think was simply just an off day. Yes, Mock took the title, but this is the first time Jefferson has lost to Mock all season and I think it's safe to say Jefferson simply just wasn't at his best. I've been flexible to those who have had bad races, but I have been worried about the amount of races the Rams have had this season. Burn-out is real and having a bad race at this point in the season could be a sign of that. 

25. Lane Werley, Senior, UCLA (+10/35)
-Last year, Lane Werley seemed to have lost a little bit of his sophomore year spark. It seemed like he was going down the same road Kyle King was. However, Werely has turned things around and is showing that last year was just a fluke. He placed 5th at PAC-12's and beat out some outstanding guys. Add in his 3rd place finish from Washington, and it looks like he's ready to return to nationals and regain his All-American status.

24. Lawrence Kipkoech, (Rs.) Freshman, Campbell (+2/26)
-Easy win for Kipkoech at the BIG South championships. He will contend for the regional title in two weeks. 

23. John Mascari, Senior, Indiana State (+3/27)
-Mascari cruises to a win at the MLV Conference championships. Honestly, there wasn't much of a reason to move him forward, but he's more established than the guys above him so I gave him some slack in the rankings.

22. Shaun Thompson, Senior, Duke (-9/13)
-Thompson is one of the tougher runners to gauge. One week he's taking down Curtin by a huge 31 seconds. The next race, he places 7th at Pre-Nats and loses to Curtin. You would assume after races like that he would be top-3 at ACC's right? Wrong. He was 6th, which is not bad by any means but isn't where I thought he could be. It looks like he took the race out pretty hard and did most of the work to start the race. That seems to be his main style, so it's tough for me to say that he should try something else. I'll be curious to see how he approaches his race plan at regionals.

21. Connor Winter, Senior, Colorado (-3/18)
20. Morgan Pearson, (Rs.) Senior, Colorado (+3/23)
-Pearson and Winter placed 14th and 15th (respectively) at PAC-12's. I'm not looking too much into this considering that entire Buffalo squad is always changing their order at every race. These guys are still excellent and could have a breakout race at any point.  

19. Erik Peterson, Senior, Butler (-5/14)
-The Butler Bulldog placed a close third at BIG East's to Tiernan and Green. He simply got outmatched by both guys and had to settle for third. I would've liked to see him beat Green, but you can't count him out for a loss like this. As I mentioned before, the course was short and it makes me wonder if a more experienced veteran like Peterson who thrives in the longer distances would've been able to reel Green in and get second. Just a thought. I also think that once the distance turns to 10k, Peterson will prosper.

18. Malachy Schrobilgen, Junior, Wisconsin (-9/9)
-Things for the Badgers continue to get worse as leader Malachy Schrobilgen had to pull out of the race with an injury he was dealing with. He pushed the pace hard for the first 2k-3k portion, but eventually dropped out. Not a good move for Wisconsin. I'm all for trying to defend your title, but if your top guy is hurt and your team's future for nationals is iffy, why would you run him in the first place? Why wouldn't you rest him? That makes no sense to me. Mick Byrne's is typically a pretty smart guy, but this wasn't his best decision. Still, we've seen what Malachy can do, and with a two week break until regionals, I see him returning back to full health and contending for the Great Lakes individual title. 

17. Martin Hehir, Senior, Syracuse (-2/15)
-He placed 5th at ACC's which would typically be surprising for a defending champion. However, if you look at the guys who beat, they are some of the best in the nation. I can't blame him too much. Plus, once the races extend to 10k, he will thrive there thanks to his experience. 

16. Mason Ferlic, Senior, Michigan (0/16)
-Ferlic comes up short once again. The Michigan Wolverine went head-to-head with McClintock during BIG 10's and made the race an exciting one. Ferlic wasn't as hesitant in his racing this time, but he simply couldn't cover the last 400-600 meters of the race. It was a solid run for him, but it seems like he's missing an edge that would allow him to get a win. 

15. Colin Bennie, Sophomore, Syracuse (+4/19)
-Since day one, I have been saying that Colin Bennie is the man to watch. Sure enough he has come up big time and time again. People assume that Hehir is the second man for the Orange, but if you look at the results this season, you'll see that Hehir has only beaten Bennie once (Wisconsin) while Bennie has beaten Hehir twice (Beantown and ACC's). His 4th place finish at ACC's makes him deserving of the 15th spot. 

14. Jonathan Green, Sophomore, Georgetown (+8/22)
-Green has matched Bennie and McClintock as my favorite runner this season. The sophomore placed second at BIG East's to Tiernan but defeated Erik Peterson in the process. He kept up with a fast pace (even though the course was short) and put himself in contention the entire race. Not bad for a younger guy. However, I have to question if Peterson would've been able to hold off Green if the course had been longer. Peterson is more experienced and has run on the bigger stages and in the longer races. We'll see who has the edge come NCAA's (Butler and Georgetown are in different regions).

13. Edwin Kibichiy, Junior, Louisville (+7/20)
-I think I got so caught up in the Knight, Thompson, Curtin battle that I kind of ignored Kibichiy in my predictions. The Louisville Cardinal grabbed 3rd at ACC's behind only Knight and Curtin. Teammate Ernest Kibet hasn't matched the expectations I had for him this season, but Kibichiy has made up for that with great racing and consistently giving the Cardinals a low-stick. 

12. Joe Rosa, (Rs.) Senior, Stanford (0/12)
-One spot behind Moussa at NCAA's was Joe Rosa who completes his second race of the season and gave Stanford another low-stick with a fast time (despite being 8th). Typically, placing 8th at conferences doesn't put you at 12th in the nation. However, if you look at the results, four of those guys are ranked above him in the rankings while other guys like Yorks and Werley have lost to Rosa at Washington. I'm not looking too much into those guys beating him. 

11. Matt McClintock, Senior, Purdue (+6/17)
-I'm going to brag a little bit here and say that I called McClintock winning. I'm pretty pumped about that...so...yeah. Anyways, McClintock has been so close to a win this entire year and he finally gets it at BIG 10's. He stayed calm and relaxed the whole race and began to grind it out the last 2k. He was able to shake-off Ferlic with scattered surges which eventually led him to the title. It's safe to say that he enters the Great Lakes region as the favorite to win.

10. Ammar Moussa, Senior, Colorado (+1/11)
-Nice running by Moussa who placed 7th overall. He's been running very well and has had some great consistency this season. His strength seems to have improved and I think he's primed to breakout from his constraints at NCAA's and go after the best in the nation. 

9. Jonah Koech, Freshman, UTEP (-1/8)
-Like Rotich, Koech cruised through the line with his teammates at Conference USA's. Nothing exciting here. 

8. Pierce Murphy, Senior, Colorado (+2/10)
-The Colorado Buffalo continues to flex his strength by placing 4th at PAC-12's. He has been running so consistently this season and has been a big low-stick for Colorado at Pre-Nats and now conferences. It seems like he's finally getting into the prime of his collegiate career. I'll be very excited to see him race against guys like Knight, Curtin, and Tiernan.

7. Marc Scott, Senior, Tulsa (0/7)
-Scott runs a fast time to get the win at the AAC championships. He went 1- 2-3 with his teammates and showed his talent. Nothing new here.

6. Sean McGorty, Junior, Stanford (0/6)
-McGorty places second at PAC-12's behind Cheserek which was a relatively predictable result. He's still running well and he's still strong. He'll stick at 6th. 

5. Justyn Knight, Sophomore, Syracuse (-2/3)
-Knight has been having a rough time closing his races. He was able to hold off McClintock at Beantown, but was then caught by Scott at Wisconsin and now Curtin at ACC's. Knight is a great runner and he's matured so much, but his inability to get a win and use his kick doesn't help him in the rankings. He is still one of the best in the nation, but I'll push him back two spots for the L.

4. Patrick Tiernan, Junior, Villanova (+1/5)
-The Aussie got another BIG East title under his belt with a win over big names like Jonathan Green and Erik Peterson. The course was apparently 400 to 600 meters short, but it wouldn't have made much of a difference for Tiernan. He commanded the race and took down two big names in the process.

3. Thomas Curtin, Senior, Virginia Tech (+1/4)
-Thomas Curtin continues to impress this season. He grabbed the ACC title by out-kicking Knight in the final 100-150 meters. However, the reason I put him at the third spot is because of how he ran the race. If you look at the race pictures and splits, Curtin was towards the front, but not leading/pushing the pace like he usually is. It's seems like he stuck around with the pack and used a different strategy. Instead of trying to burn out his opponents, he out-kicked them this time which shows that he's becoming much more versatile. Could he outkick Ches? I wouldn't bet on that, but it's good to see that he's becoming a better overall racer.

2. Anthony Rotich, Senior, UTEP (0/2)
-Rotich glides in with his teammates to get the title. Nothing that hard for him. He retains the second spot.

1. Edward Cheserek, Junior, Oregon (0/1)
-The King gets his third PAC-12 title. That win puts him with Prefontaine and Henry Rono as the only individuals to get three PAC-12 titles. That is legendary company to be in. No reason to move him. He is #1.
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Just Missed
Dallin Farnsworth, Freshman, BYU
Aaron Fletcher, Senior, BYU
Trent Lusignan, Senior, South Dakota State
Antibahs Kosgei, Junior, Alabama
Vegard Oelstad, Senior, Oklahoma State
Rorey Hunter, Senior, Indiana

Who To Watch
-Harry Mulenga, Junior, Florida State
-Japhet Kipkoech, Senior, Louisville
-Jake Leingang, Junior, Oregon
-Matthew Maton, Freshman, Oregon
-Austin Dalquist, Sophomore, Arkansas
-Kyle Eller, Junior, Air Force
-Tait Rutherford, Senior, Columbia

Kicked Off
Joel Hubbard, Junior, Syracuse (Last Ranked 49)
Brian Barraza, Senior, Houston (Last Ranked 48)
MJ Erb, Junior, Mississippi (Last Ranked 38)

New Additions
John Dressel, Freshman, Colorado
Aubrey Myjer, Senior, Columbia
Kevin Dooney, Senior, Yale 
Dylan Lafond, Junior, Illinois

Biggest Surprise of the Week
John Dressel, Freshman, Colorado

MVP of the Week
Edward Cheserek, Junior, Oregon

Notes
-Cheserek wins MVP of the week for grabbing his 3rd consecutive PAC-12 title in a blazing fast time of 23:06.
-Barraza is kicked off after placing 4th in a conference where Tulsa went 1-2-3. He should've at least taken 2nd behind Scott. Not a good sign for him.
-Erb finished dead last at SEC's. Not sure if that was for injury or if he was taking it easy, but I don't like the direction anyone at Mississippi is heading right now.
-Rorey Hunter is the first one off.
-The BIG East course was short. I can't find out exactly how short it was, but the general consensus is to add 1 minute on to the times for a more realistic result.
-I apologize for any typos/grammatical errors. I've had a busy week.
-Amon Terrer of Campbell was left off by accident. He should be in the 30's. My bad.

2 comments:

  1. what ever happened to penn state's tony russel?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All we know right now is that he is off the team. There were some rumors that he was looking into transferring schools (I heard Tennessee although I'm not sure how accurate that is). I'm not too sure we'll be seeing him compete at any point in the future.

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