2017 PIAA XC State Previews: AA Team Preview

I think the AA team race is going to be absolute madness. I have no confidence in my picks. Usually, I have confidence, it’s just false confidence. I think I’ve nailed it and then I whiff. This year, maybe it will help to be completely unsure. Or maybe, I’ll just have a more embarrassing set of predictions. Here’s to hoping it’s the first one …

10. Holy Redeemer

The District 2 runner-ups are an interesting team. I still feel like they haven’t completely hit their potential and yet they’ve posted strong results at Foundation, Paul Short and Districts. They’ve got a medal contender or two on the roster. They have a deep pack that goes 7 deep. They have run the Hershey hills multiple times and should have a decent feel for it. I think somebody is going to step up. Stevens is running great, but if one more guy (Williams, Capaci, Strish and Volpetti all have had glimpses) steps up and makes this thing a big 3 instead of a big 2, I think these guys could really exceed my prediction.

9. Greensburg Salem

A week after I bailed on Greensburg Salem as a state qualifier, I’m feeling uncertain about where to slot them in this state field. On the one hand, this is a young team with most of their youth coming at that critical 4-5 spot. On the other, they just showed they can step up and deliver on the big stage at Coopers. That 4-5 should be less of a weakness in a Hershey field that will put more emphasis on front running. That’s’ where this team has to step up. I thought their big three were good at Coopers (clearly, they all finished in the top 10), but it’s a testament to their talent that I think there’s actually more there to give. I think Brown and/or Binda can be a top 10 guy. Dylan Binda could be anywhere from 20^th to 60^th and I wouldn’t blink. Maybe this Greensburg Salem squad is a version of Harbor Creek last year that had three state medalists that carried them to a 4^th place result.

8. Notre Dame

This may be an ambitious pick, but I’m all in on the District 11 champions. They were a sneaky good 9^th place last year and they return much of that core. Koons is a star and Seamus Hammerston has emerged as an elite #2. He’s going to be the biggest wildcard for this squad as basically everybody in AA has 1 or 2 or 3 elite dudes. I like the way Notre Dame traversed the hills a year ago and I like their pack. The test will be out front and how well they can stack up.

7. New Castle

I feel like New Castle belongs in the A race. Why? Because they will be leaning on freshmen for key results in their top 5, not unlike many of the top teams in A. Those freshmen were very clutch at WPIALs where Jonah Miller (17^th) and Zac Gibson (26^th) nearly helped New Castle win a WPIAL title. Those two freshmen along with sophomore Anthony Litrenta make up a talented young core that could go etiehr way on these Hershey hills. But the most important two guys for me personally are seniors. LeShawn Huff will need to be in the state medals for this team to break into the top 5 and maybe even this top 7. Meanwhile, George Eggleston has the ability to step up and run with Litrenta and Miller. That could be a huge insurance piece for a deep New Castle squad trying to make a name for themselves in Hershey.

6. Indiana Area

Well, here we are. At #6 (yes, #6) is my first team that I think has a very realistic shot at a state championship. I thought it was crazy to have 5 in A, but here we are in AA with 6! In my opinion, Indiana is a long shot, but they’ve got a shot. Kendall Branan has emerged as a star after his second place finish at the WPIAL championships. The sophomore is not afraid to go for it, typically pushing early at a fast pace. I’d expect the AA race to be fast from the gun which may play to Branan’s advantage (or exploit his aggressive nature if he goes out over his head). What Branan will need behind him for Indiana to make the podium is a complete top 5. Julian Yerger should be a bigger factor in the team race this weekend than he was at WPIALs and Joey Bujdos will need to be sniffing around the top 30 individuals as well.

5. Grove City

On the right day, Grove City is AA’s most complete top 5. We saw this team topple traditional power and Foundation champ York Suburban at Carlisle with a tight pack behind their superstar front runner Jonah Powell. Despite their stint as the #1 ranked team in AA, Grove City ended up 2^nd at their district championship as Harbor Creek exploited their lack of a #2. I think Powell will have a bounce back day and finish in the top 5 at states, but if Grove City wants to really make a run in this race, he needs a running mate in the top 25. If that happens, maybe that pulls the whole pack into the top 50 and they steal the title. Since the move to three classifications, Grove City has been a consistent top 5 team in AA, but they are still searching for that elusive title.

4. Harbor Creek

This is by far the most interesting team in the state. I was expecting Harbor Creek to contend this year. They returned three state medalists and most of the core from a 4^th place team in the state. However, Harbor Creek was successful last year despite a big gap between their 4 and 5. This season, they look much more complete. Nate Dougan came up huge at districts, placing 9^th overall in a strong District 10 field. I did not see that one coming. Dougan filled the space vacated by last year’s graduated #4. Then HC had the 20^th and 21^st place finishers in Caleb Mandel and Nolan Weber. Assuming Dougan can duplicate his district race, Harbor Creek just needs a solid day-not even an outlier, just a solid day-out of Mandel or Weber. I gave this team a hard look as I think they could definitely be state champs, but ultimately I trusted the other programs and the other #5s a tiny bit more.

3. Wyomissing

In my first draft of these predictions, I had Wyomissing winning the state championship. They beat Dallas at Paul Short and they beat York Suburban at districts so clearly there’s a reason I had them in the pole position. That top 3 is legit with Joe Cullen, Ben Kuhn and Matt Driben all medal threats. Most of their core got some valuable state experience out at Hershey a year ago, including potential scorers Diehl, Foster and Vargo. There’s a lot to like here. However, I ultimately just had a hard time putting this squad ahead of Dallas and York Suburban. Those programs have done so much over the past few seasons, I feel like it should come down to the two of them on the podium one more time. The name that will swing this one, in my opinion, is Matt Driben. He ran states back in 2014 as a frosh and was the #4 man on a 7^th place team in the state, but there was a gap before he returned to XC relevance this season. Now, he’s a star with big upside. If he’s in the medals, it’s going to be near impossible to defeat Wyomissing.

2. Dallas

In 2014, a team that included 4 freshmen and a sophomore in the top 5 survived a grueling test from defending state champs Tunkhannock and qualified for states. You would think a team of youngsters, surprising their way to states would just be happy to be there. That they would not be able to handle the spotlight. But the young Dallas team rallied to 8^th place in the state. From that moment, you knew there was something special about this group.

The four freshmen from that year’s team, Jack Zardecki, Josh Wyandt, Adam Borton and Josh Jarden, are now seniors. Seniors with two state championship golds. Seniors hoping to add one more before they leave. In all likelihood, these four guys will be four of the five scorers at states, alongside sub 16 man Mitchell Rome. They will need to all bring their “A” game if this squad is going to pull off the three peat. However, it’s worth noting that the sophomore from that 2014 squad, Jason Culp, was a key part of the 2015 and 2016 state championships. He really brought the top 5 together with a consistent presence in the middle of a strong pack. Josh Jarden will have to step into that Culp role if Dallas wants to keep the clamps on the trophy. Jarden is the big x-factor on race day.

I originally had Dallas third on my rankings (and almost had them even lower than that), but ultimately have too much respect for this program to doubt them. You don’t get to be back to back state champions without being able to handle some adversity. Zardecki will be a factor at the front, Wyandt and Rome are hungry for their first individual medals and Borton typically runs clutch at states. Jarden has been right on Borton’s heels the past two weeks so hopefully he can follow him through to bring home the title.

1. York Suburban

In 2014, while this young Dallas team was gaining their confidence, York Suburban was taking the state title. They were the squad set up to be a dynasty as they entered the 2015 state meet as title favorites. But Dallas knocked them off by just 8 points and stole the title. A year later, with vengeance on their mind, York Suburban threw arguably their best performance from the three years on the table and still ended up with silver.

Now, just one man from that ‘14 state championship team, Bryce Ohl, remains on the squad. He’s battled with Dallas for the past two seasons and knows how menacing this opponent can be. Ohl was the lone medalist for York Suburban in 2016. They will need at least one more guy with bling around his neck if they are going to make my prediction come true and steal the state crown back from Dallas. Raudenski can be that guy (and I’m not just saying that because his name is Jarrett) but he needs to click as a junior the same way Ohl did last year. A real wildcard to watch? Jordan Ohl, a sophomore who I think may be sitting on a breakthrough.

I may be thinking of this too poetically. As you can tell from my individual predictions, the odds are stacked against York Suburban. Most other contenders have more firepower out front and the packs from these other top squads can hold their own. But it feels to me like YS needs to win to close off this four year chapter AA. I guess I’m just a hopeless romantic.

2017 PIAA XC State Previews: A Team Preview

This year’s state championship team battles are sure to be legendary. Last year, I’d say we had three pretty clear favorites for gold in Hershey. This year, it’s not quite as clear cut.

10. Masterman

The District 12 champions haven’t faced the toughest competition this season, but they have rolled past the top squads that they have opposed. They took 4 of the top 5 spots at Belmont, denied a clean sweep of the top 4 by Kamil Jihad of Neuman Goretti (who was a top 50 finisher at states last year). I’ve got their top dog, Dan Bici, finishing in the medals and I think the rest of their core will hold their own on the Hershey hills. Masterman is a strong program that has had some historically strong teams in past years and this one actually stacks up pretty decently alongside them. That being said, if Shenango puts their pack together and gets a touch of front running for Salem, then the WPIAL will have 3 top 10 teams and make this prediction look silly.

9. Mount Caramel

If Mount Caramel didn’t win the team championship at districts, they might not have had any state qualifiers. Their top individual was just 6^th in a district that projects to have just one state medalist (according to me who, just to clarify, has been wrong so many times). On the flip, Mount Caramel has a great pack. They have multiple guys who could step up and lead the team, depending on the day. This is another well coached program and they seemed to have a little chip on their shoulder. That underdog mentality could serve them well on the Hershey hills. Somebody needs to step up and be a front runner or this team will be buried early, but I think they stack up well against the other squads that project to be around them in the front running area and then they can overcome any disadvantages through their pack.

8. Seneca

This Seneca squad has impressed me thus far in 2017. They’ve refused to roll over and surrender the top spot in District 10 and, although they came up just short of maintaining their title, they are back in the state championships yet again. Brock Smith, as just a sophomore, has been a clutch front running presence. Jake Schneider and Rob Stepnowski are experienced and have excelled in Hershey before, particularly Rob who projects to be the #3 man on his team but could be #2 if he captures some of the momentum he had at last year’s championships. I’m a big proponent of the “Top 3” theory, especially at states where the team scores become more and more of a wash after about the first 30ish places. I’m quite high on Seneca as they head into states.

7. Cochranton

The District 10 champions have their own “Top 3” to praise. Not only do they have Noah Bernarding, a top 5 contender at the upcoming state meet, but they also boast Jac Cokley and Stephen Clulow. Cokley has been fantastic this year, a sneaky pick for a state medalist, but Clulow has been the revelation in recent weeks. He’s been rapidly ascending the ranks of District 10 and finished 7^th in the competitive district this past weekend. Lee Ault could make this big 3 into a big 4 with the right kind of day and projects to be a tier above many team’s #4. There will be some light pressure on the #5 spot for sure, but that’s a part of being a A school. Depth is always going to be a question.

6. Riverview

Hey, you know who may not have depth as a question? Riverview. I’ve been praising this team’s depth down to the JV squad, a pretty unique fact for a A school, but in order to place well here at states they will need their 1-2 punch to deliver. Ben Barnes and Michael Komaniak could both be medalists (Barnes seems like a near lock). With top finishes, they can hang with a Cochranton out front while simultaneously opening up big gaps on teams like Mount Caramel. Riverview has been here before, qualifying for states each of the past two seasons. They finished 11^th last year, but I think this year’s team is better. The big swing man is Gideon Deasy, a freshman with big talent. He rounds out that top 3 and determines if this team can break into that ultra competitive top 5. I like Sullivan and Cecil as pieces. I think they will deliver solid days at 4 & 5.

5. Montrose

I think Montrose is the first team on this list that, if they won states, my jaw wouldn’t drop. That may not sound like much, but usually that’s the #5 team in the state. Some years it’s #2. Personally, I thought Montrose had a legit shot at winning the state championship last year, although I was probably the only one that felt that way. Ultimately, the pressure of the moment got to them and they faded out of the medals. When the dust settled a year ago, they were 5^th. I’m not sure this year’s team is better, but they should be more prepared. Redemption was on #1 man Brandon Curley’s mind in his post-race interview and he and Liam Mead, neither of which had a show stopping performance at last year’s state race, will need to be in the medals if Montrose wants that upset. Through 7, I think this is our deepest team. They’ve got all seniors and juniors in their expected top 5. They’ve got 4 guys with state championship experience. There’s a lot to like here, but I’d prefer not to put the pressure on them I did last year.

4. Jenkintown

Jenkintown was one of the biggest surprises for me personally at last year’s state championships. They got two state medalists including the top sophomore in the field, Jack Miller. Those two state medalists are back this year ready to turn heads again. This time, however, I’m ready for them, to the point where you could argue I’m hyping them a little too much. After a clean 15 point sweep at districts, Jenkintown has done all they can to prove they are ready for a state title push. They were well back of the two big dogs at Foundation, but this is a much improved team since then. The most critical part of their growth has been the freshmen: Luke Miller and Carter Geer. If those two guys are on point, this team will be in the mix for a podium spot. The freshmen thing is certainly scary-young guys can have a tough time under the bright lights, especially on the Hershey hills-but, as you will see, it’s a common theme with all of these schools.

3. Elk County Catholic

Just a year ago, Elk County Catholic was the team with the freshmen who were under pressure. Well, those youngsters delivered as Ben Hoffman was 27^th and Isaac Wortman was 54^th.  Hoffman jumped from 43^rd at the 2-mile and Isaac from 59^th. They ran like a couple seasoned veterans on this course and were the main reason Elk County was able to hold off Seneca in the final standings. Now those freshmen are sophomores and they are continuing to outperform their age. Ben Hoffman is now the district champ and has been the consistent #1 runner for his squad. Wortman has emerged as a reliable #2, posting an impressive 3^rd place mark at districts. In total, Elk CC’s 4 returners from last year’s runner-up combined for just 19 points at districts. All 4 of those guys have a chance to be top 50 finishers at states which would make them an easy top 3 team. Jacob Carnovale, the team’s projected #5, has run tight with Logan Hoffman and Matt Dippold (the projected #3-4) so the spread won’t take a big hit their either. I don’t have much reason to doubt these guys, it’s really just a matter of respect for the top two teams that is keeping them in the bronze position.

2. Winchester Thurston

In case you need a reminder, Winchester Thurston is the defending state champions. They won the title last year with ease, putting three guys on the medal stand for a second straight season. Winchester Thurston also was state champs in 2014 and, if not for an unfortunate injury, they believe they would have been state champs again in 2015. They would be sitting on a potential 4-peat right now if that were the case. That’s why you have to take this team seriously as a title contender.

Well, that and the fact that they just rolled through the WPIAL championship. Tristan Forsythe ran away from a stacked field while Gordon Pollock and Scott Routledge also finished in the top 6. Given this team’s track record for medals, those three guys could all be getting individual hardware. Typically, if you get three guys in the medals, you win a state title. However, they don’t stop counting at #3 so the 1-2 punch of freshmen, Patrick Malone and Ben Bermann, will need to deliver. As back up, they also boast Sean Heintzleman, a top 50 finisher from last year’s state meet, who can help provide some insurance for the rookies. Not to put unnecessary pressure on a couple 9^th graders, but I think the championship hopes of this school may rest on their shoulders. The good news is Winchester Thurston has gotten top 50 finishes from freshmen each of their state championship seasons so they are with the right coach to pull off the unexpected.

1. Penns Valley

In a meet filled with important freshmen, there are none more important than the two wearing Penns Valley jerseys this weekend. PV was on my radar before the season started as a dark horse for a top 5 spot in the state, but I wasn’t expecting much more. Than Brendan Colwell and Colton Sands showed up. The two all-stars have been the ultimate x-factor for the Valley as they rolled to big performances at Big Valley, Spiked Shoe and, most memorably, the Foundation Invite in Hershey. These state course rookies were 7^th and 9^th at Foundation, outdueling the highly touted top 3 of Winchester Thurston and Jenkintown. In the long lay off since, it doesn’t appear they’ve lost much of their pep. Penns Valley’s freshmen took 3^rd and 4^th in a deep District 6 championship meet.

Now there are more pieces on this team than just freshmen. Chris Colwell returns as a senior leader who has already collected an individual state medal. He is competing in a 4^th straight state championship. Sam Gray and Mark Bierly were also top 20 at Foundation and top 10 at Districts. On paper, they’ve been the best 4-5 in the state. If these guys all click, they will likely have 5 top 50 finishers and three state medalists. That’s the prototype for a state championship.

However, one off day, whether it is a freshman or a senior, and the race becomes a bit more wide open. There was over a minute gap between Bierly and #6 man Charlie Romig at districts. The same can be said for Elk County Catholic. That’s what makes states a real wildcard and it’s what should give every team hope as they circle the course and sprint the last hill.

So tie your shoes tightly, avoid deer and have fun out there kids. 

2017 PIAA XC State Championship Preview: AA Individual Preview

AA State Championship

Jersey Shore’s Isaac Davis enters the state meet as a clear favorite. Like A favorite Tristan Forsythe, Davis is not only the two time defending champion at Foundation, but also the top returner from last year’s state meet and top sophomore from the 2015 edition of the championships. Davis’s recent success shows his fitness is strong as ever. He’s broken 16 in each of his last two meets, including last week’s district championship. That mark made him the first sub 16 man on the course since two time state champ Griffin Molino of South Williamsport in 2014. Davis also boasts the fastest foundation time of the season, even faster than Neshaminy’s Rusty Kujdych.

Isaac has typically been a front runner, storming out of the gates quickly and pushing the pace through to the finish. At Foundation, he opened up a massive lead at halfway and held that advantage to the finish. At states last fall, he hung tough through the early stages of the race against eventual 1-2 finishers Ben Bumgarner and Zach Skolnekovich, leading through the first mile. That strategy could potentially leave him vulnerable by a pack working together to close the gap. However, it can also pulverize the mental state of his competitors and finish a race before it even starts.

Many runners have had a firsthand look at Davis’s strength, but perhaps none have been quite as firsthand as South Fayette senior Sam Snodgrass. Snodgrass was second to Davis at Foundation. He’s the #2 returner from last year’s state meet. And even before that he was the #2 sophomore at the 2015 championships, right behind Davis. So Snodgrass has been trying to climb out of that shadow for a couple years now. Despite an excellent resume that includes wins at RWB and WPIALs, Snodgrass will have an uphill battle against Davis. The gap at Foundation was 37 seconds which should be tough to overcome. But Sam has good mile speed, a history of peaking right and he even tried a more aggressive start at WPIALs this past week. He could be practicing to hang tough with Davis at states.

A fast start may not be the recipe to knock off Davis, but instead a lasting surge on the back half of the course could get the job done. Someone who knows all about that second half surge is York Suburban senior Bryce Ohl. Bryce was in 55^th position at the mile at states in 2016 before rising all the way up to 8^th place at the finish. At districts this past weekend, Bryce dropped a big last mile to win the race by 23 seconds after being essentially even at 3200. He was almost a minute back of Davis at Foundation, but I’d be stunned if that gap doesn’t shrink down significantly by states.

Ohl’s natural foil is Jack Zardecki of Dallas. The two finished side by side last year at states with Zardecki one spot ahead. Their two teams finished 1-2 as well, Zardecki again having a one spot edge. These two athletes have been front runners on talented, state championship caliber squads each of the past two seasons. They’ve been Top 50 finishers in the state since their freshmen years. And guess what? They are set to be locked in yet another tight team battle in 2017.

That team battle is a bit more crowded this year than it was last. In addition to Dallas and York Suburban, schools like Grove City, Harbor Creek and Wyomissing are coveting gold. Each of those teams has a front runner who I’d expect to be in the mix for a top 3 finish. Jonah Powell of Grove City didn’t have his best finish at districts, but the junior was clearly elite during the regular season with big marks at RWB and Carlisle among others. I think he bounces back in a big way at states. Wyomissing’s Joe Cullen has 1:53/4:13 ability. He lost to Ohl at districts, but should still be in the mix at states. Cullen won a district title last year and grabbed a state medal in Hershey so he’s not just a track guy by any means. Harbor Creek returns three state medalists in Ryan Stravaggi, Aiden Weber and Christian Babo. They didn’t have anyone crack the top 15, but that ought to change this year.

I’m always interested in how teammates running together will have an advantage on the Hershey course. Beyond the Harbor Creek trio, Wyomissing’s Cullen is joined by medal contenders in Ben Kuhn and Matt Driben. Greensburg Salem has a phenomenal top three in Mark Brown, Cameron Binda and Dylan Binda. Bryce Ohl is joined by medal threat Jarrett Raudenski while Zardecki has Mitchell Rome and Josh Wyandt on the roster. But the biggest 1-2 punch of all may be under the roof at General McLane. Nate Price won against a stacked field at the District 10 championships. His teammate, Erik Andrzejewski, was a surprise 18^th at states last fall and knows how to navigate the Hershey hills. Pair those two together and they might steal two top 10 spots.

But still, there’s more names to watch. How about the ultra-talented sophomore from Juniata, Garrett Baublitz? He was a freshman sensation last year, breaking 4:20 in the 1600 and grabbing state hardware. He’s much more seasoned in his second trip to Hershey and proved he could handle the hills at Foundation earlier this year. Anthony Harper of Bonner is another top notch hill runner who was dominant this past week at districts. John Koons of Notre Dame is ascending at the right time. Sophomore Kendall Branan of Indiana was just second at the district seven championships against a slew of stars. He seems like a good sleeper candidate as does his Indiana squad.

Lastly, I should mention one of the few guys in this field who actually boasts a win over Isaac Davis within the past year or so of XC. That is Loyalsock’s Quinn Serfass. He beat Davis as at the 2016 district championships and, although he didn’t topple him this year, he was not too far behind when the clock stopped at Bloomsburg. Serfass is one of the top returners from last year, boasts a nice 3200 PR and has the extra incentive that comes with running for his team (the District 4 champs) on state Saturday. Maybe that helps him surprise for an upset.

Place	Team Place	Name	Class	Team
1		Isaac Davis	Sr	Jersey Shore
2		Sam Snodgrass	Sr	South Fayette
3	1	Jonah Powell	Jr	Grove City
4	2	Jack Zardecki	Sr	Dallas
5	3	Bryce Ohl	Sr	York Suburban
6	4	Quinn Serfass	Sr	Loyalsock
7		Nate Price	Jr	General McLane
8	5	Mark Brown	Jr	Greensburg Salem
9	6	Joe Cullen	Sr	Wyomissing
10	7	Anthony Harper	Sr	Bonner
11		Garrett Baublitz	So	Juniata
12	8	John Koons	Jr	Notre Dame
13		Erik Andrzejewski	Jr	General McLane
14	9	Ryan Stravaggi	Jr	Harbor Creek
15	10	Aiden Weber	Jr	Harbor Creek
16	11	Cameron Binda	Jr	Greensburg Salem
17	12	Mitchell Rome	Jr	Dallas
18		Clay Kismal	Sr	Crestwood
19		Ethan Bernstein	Sr	Saucon Valley
20		Mitchell Martin	Sr	Berwick
21	13	Christian Babo	Sr	Harbor Creek
22	14	Kendall Branan	So	Indiana
23		Cameron Junk	Sr	Upper Perk
24	15	Ben Kuhn	So	Wyomissing
25	16	Le'shawn Huff	Sr	New Castle
26		Jacob Pasake	Sr	Western Wayne
27	17	Jarrett Raudenski	Jr	York Suburban
28		Logan Horst	Jr	Lancaster Mennonite
29	18	Josh Wyandt	Sr	Dallas
30	19	Ryan Sullivan	Sr	Loyalsock
31	20	Van May	Fr	Bedford
32	21	Sheamus Hammerston	Sr	Notre Dame
33	22	Bryce Zapusek	Jr	Holy Redeemer
34		Robert Leiser	Sr	NW Lehigh
35		Johnathan Asay	Sr	Freeport
36		Luke Milhimes	Sr	Gettysburg
37	23	Joey Bujdos	Jr	Indiana
38		Dan Ford	So	Quaker Valley
39		Brett Pope	Sr	Bellefonte
40	24	Cejay Walker	Jr	Somerset
41		Ben Reisenweaver	Sr	Schuylkill Valley
42	25	Logan Caruso	Sr	Bradford
43	26	Matt Driben	Sr	Wyomissing
44		Jacob Eshelman	Jr	Franklin
45	27	Josh Kerr	Sr	York Suburban
46	28	Tyler Leeser	Sr	Milton
47		Shane Cohen	Jr	Lower Moreland
48	29	Adam Borton	Sr	Dallas
49	30	Dylan Binda	Jr	Greensburg Salem
50		Jacob Hammaker	Sr	Susquenita