7 More Thoughts

For those of you wondering, there were other meets besides Paul Short this weekend. So this ones not to get confused. This one's for you ....

#1 NA is making some improvements to their pack. No McGoey or Seel this weekend and they still handled things pretty easy this weekend against the best non Lebo teams in the district. Now we can debate how good those teams really are, but the fact remains Wharrey is running like a state medalist and despite North Hills putting 3 in the top 10, NA was able to hold them off. They had their 2-3 (Stupak and Miggliozzi) in front of a quality runner in Tanner Quiggle and another guy at 18th overall. Those guys were solid 2-3s in the meet, but would be this teams 4-5 with McGoey and Seel in the line up. This team is still a serious state title contender, not quite Stoga good, but they are built to win at states a little better than Stoga honestly. Should be fun to watch.

#2 Are we underestimating the D7 battle for the third spot? Look North Hills was quite good this weekend led by a big step up by Killian McNally who was 5th this weekend, but I'm not convinced that Pitts CC, Baldwin or Fox Chapel is out. I mentioned Baldwin at the beginning of the season as a sleeper so I can't give up on them yet. They are improving each week. Pitts CC has a guy who may end up district champ and that kinda low stick is big. That being said North Hills top 3 are very good. Heinauer is really solid, potential state medalist, and McNally could be one of those guys who comes on big time during the stretch run. Everybody is chasing Hills, but maybe they can be climbed in the standings before November hits.

Oooo I like that line.

#3 I'm not sure I've mentioned this but the district 3 meet is going to be Bananas of the Gwen Stefani variety. Carlisle made sure everybody knew they weren't finished this weekend but running impressive across the hills in Delaware at Salesianum. Brehm killed it with his 16:38 on the very difficult course. DeAngelo continued to run solid and Wisner bounced back strong with a 9th place finish within a second of Josh Smith. Carlisle is continuing to improve it's pack as well. Red Land, CV and Carlisle had strong performances this weekend to put them as favorites to go through to states, but there are plenty of teams chomping at their heels.

#4 As far as I can tell everybody thinks districts in district 1 is Stoga, Henderson, DT West and CB West in some order and then CR and Pennsbury fighting for the final spot. I'm thinking a version of the same thing. I agree that those 6 teams are the only squads I could realistically see making states.

But is there a chance anyone else breaks through? North Penn had a reasonably solid showing at Salesianum. They have had strong races by Cooney, Tung and now Collins this season, just not all at the same time. If they all click by districts that's a nice top 3.

Horsham straight up dominated the non championship race with Comber doing the main straight up dominating with his first place 16:44. Wowzers. Is Comber going to see real competition before Leagues? No offense but in invites he's been dominate. When he finally gets to leagues I hope he is ready for a duel with Brophy. That has important team implications because CB East, North Penn and Horsham will all be competing to prove they are the primary non big 6 team. And they will be against CB West so we can see just how close to the top 6 they are.

Spring Ford averaged 16:37 with 4 frosh and a soph in their top 8. And Power is pretty good for those of you who have been buried under a rock. The Power Rangers are one of my sleeper teams in District One.

#5
So just found out Gabe Allgayer not only has an awesome accent, but he is also an independent league guy. Interesting. So the Malvern Prep boys, the GFS top 3, Allgayer, Ritz and Szuhaj will all be toeing the line together at their state champs? Very interesting. Allgayer has been improving like a mad man this year and 15:50 in a winning effort is killer. I've mentioned him in passing for the past couple weeks but now it's time to mention him in the following question: Can Allgayer win the Independent League championship? Right now I don't think he's quite as good as Hoey, McDevitt, Ritz or Dahl (and maybe even little Hoey regardless of this past weekend). We have a solid couple weeks before we have to seriously consider this question, but keep Allgayer on your radar. He's heading in the right direction at the very least.

#6
Wait did I just make it through 5 thoughts (including a thought about how awesome the independent league championships could be) and not once mention the meet of champs?! Plus I haven't been using my awesome just a thought catchphrase at the end of all my thoughts! And wait RJJL was at Paul Short and I didn't track him (or potentially her I suppose we don't know) down and introduce myself?

Goodness I am off my game, but that's what happens when you wake up at 5:15 this morning.

And so you don't get mad about me cheating you out of a thought right now I'll give you one.

Colin Abert is really good. Pretty clever stuff right?

Yeah screw it, I'm going back to bed.

#7
Easton vs Parkland Dual this week. Altoona vs State college dual this week. Henderson XC invite this week which could mean DTW against WCH again. That's some interesting mid week action. Then we have the always interesting 86 different races at Manhattan.

Is going to be tricky to make some odds for this week. But I need to because I'm in about a $5,000 hole right now.

Suggestions for meets to put odds on encouraged. I'm gonna need some team lists/starting box info probably too. I'll search penntrack this week.

3 comments:

  1. NA looks really good right now. Straight killed it on a weekend missing their #1 and #3.

    As of now I think it'll be (in no order) DTW, Stoga, CB West. After that it's a complete toss up. Henderson an Pennsbury don't have a fifth guy, but both have a solid 1-2 up front(ish) and a nice 3-4, but seriously lack a 5th guy. They will ether need a completely filthy 1-4 or pick up a fifth real quick. For PB little Sauer may be the key for Pennsbury, Henderson needs a plan. CRN has a nice 1-3 but a massive drop off to 4-5 and without a top 5 competitor that won't cut it in D1. Springford has a shot if they can pack up their 2-5. If they all drop 20 seconds by districts they're a lock.

    I thought Brehm would go faster, honestly. MaCauley ran faster with less competition. Maybe Brehm wasn't going all out, but this will be his best preparation for the States' course since he didn't run at pre states so I don't think he would pull any punches.

    Who is RJJL and how did you know they were at the meet? That has been bothering me for a good two years now.

    Random thought: Just imagine how good DTW would be if Drew Alansky was healthy. He was their top freshman and although inconsistent, dropped some solid. A good summers training would have put him up there with Sappey.

    -RTJ

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    1. Or with Barton... They were only 4 or 5 seconds apart last year.

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    2. Yeah, but I think Alansky has more potential so would have shown more improvement.

      -RTJ

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