States Week: Top 10 Teams AA

 

The AA teams race features the biggest title favorites in York Suburban from District 3 who is coming off a dominating district win and an impressive 2nd place finish at Carlisle (the top PA finish for all divisions). However, there are a slew of teams chomping at their heels to try to steal the spotlight and end the hype surrounding York Suburban. Simultaneously, York Suburban will look to prove they are, in fact, the best team in the state, regardless of class. Ladies and gentlemen, your top 10 AA teams.

 

10. Bonner (12)

Bonner had a bit of a down year last season after losing senior leader Will McDermott to graduation. However, Bonner appears to have found its identity again this season, winning another district 12 championship and building behind leaders Sean Sullivan and Ryan Rasatter.  Bonner’s top 2 is very strong and I think both guys have medalist potential. Cromity has shown he can be a strong #3 and had a good run at pre states this season. If their 4-5 can continue to improve, they should crack the top 10 teams this weekend.

 

9. Mars (7)

Mars had a very solid showing, making it out of the difficult District 7 championship meet. All 4 qualifying teams finished pretty close together, meaning it’s a bit of a toss up where they will land at the state meet. Mrdjenovich not only has one of the toughest names in the district, but also has one of the toughest minds (i.e. he was 6th in the competitive D7 championship meet). He had a great district performance and should be a medal contender at states. I also expect Knox to bounce back at the state meet and give Mrdjenovich a running mate. Porter and Luce are solid top 3 guys and the team has solid depth through #7. They didn’t blow me away at districts, but they showed signs they can run with the best teams in the state.

 

8. Uniontown (7)

Another squad from the D7 mob, Uniontown is back at states and looking to continue the success they had a year ago. They snuck by Hopewell in a surprise turn for the 4th and final spot to states and they are showing improvement at the perfect time. Last year, they really impressed at states behind front runner Nate Edenfield (who ended up 1st in team scoring) and this year Carei and Klott return to carry on the legacy. This team was just three points behind Mars at Districts and I think their extra momentum and experience allows them to flip-flop with them this weekend.

 

7. South Fayette (7)

That’s right, 3 in a row for District 7! South Fayette was incredibly impressive last year when they finished 3rd at states behind Tunkhannock and Pottsgrove. They did it with a crew of 6 seniors. This year, they turned over their entire roster and ended up 2nd at districts, punching another ticket to states. Sophomore Aaron Pfiel burst onto the scene with a 7th place finish at districts and freshman Snodgrass was a strong #2. Sandala rounds out a strong top 3. He is the only returner from last year’s team that competed here at states. There is definitely potential for this inexperienced team to struggle here at states, but I think Sandala and this program’s impressive finish a year ago, help them avoid a big slip.

 

6. Knoch (7)

Yes, district 7 has won the connect four championship. Knoch is my favorite of the District 7 teams and I really like what their top 4 did at districts. Freyermuth, Grumski, Ejzak, and Carlsson were all in the top 20 finishers! They did have a bit of a drop off to #5 which is always a bit of a concern, but this top 4 is very talented. Someone from the top 4 needs to break free and lead this group into the 20-35 range, which will be difficult to do in a loaded AA state championship. With an improvement at #5, Knoch can jump quickly into the top 5 teams.

 

5. Mt Caramel (4)

Much like Knoch, Caramel has a very solid top 4 and then a bit of a drop off until 5. Bartos and Moser have led the charge for the Caramel Pretzels this season and both are medal threats. Fisher and Fletcher round out the impressive top 4. I give Mt. C a small edge over Knoch because they bested them at Pre States and because they placed quite well at states a year ago (Knoch did not qualify). I also think that Bartos and Moser are a bit better than Freyermuth and Grumski (both teams 1-2), although Knoch may have the edge at 3-4. It will be most likely be only a couple points difference.

 

4. Scranton Prep (2)

SP was one of my early picks for AA state champs. They returned a ton of key pieces from last year’s team and they had a fantastic first meet showing against Carlisle at Spiked Shoe. The team has quietly continued to be solid, running well at Paul Short and at districts against a loaded District 2 AA field. They have a squad that goes 6 deep and they have state experience. Ultimately, Scranton Prep ended up overshadowed by the terrific performance of York Suburban at Carlisle and now the resurgence of D1 powerhouse Pottsgrove and D10 powerhouse Grove City. Perry was a medalist last year for SP and he will need to be back in the medals this year if this team is going to have a shot at a podium finish. He will need to drag some teammates with him as well. Right now, I don’t think Prep has the firepower out front to compete with the top 3 teams. However, it is worth noting that with a mile to go last year, Scranton Prep could taste a state title, but it barely slipped away out of reach. The same crew is back and hungry for revenge.

 

3. Pottsgrove (1)

Pottsgrove has had a resurgence in recent weeks. There was talk (mainly by me) that HG Prep and Bishop Shanahan would give this team all it could handle during district week, yet Pottsgrove had a convincing win behind Lopez and Wurtz 1-2 finish. Both men are now poised to grab state medals and a pack of developing studs like Neeson and Underwood should challenge the packs of other top teams. Underwood has struggled the last two years on the state course. If he can turn things around that will be a big lift for this team. They have strong depth so they can handle an off day if it comes. Pottsgrove was state champ in 2012 and runners up in 2013 despite strong hype around other programs. This year seems like a similar story.

 

2. York Suburban (3)

1. Grove City (10)

 

Do I think York Suburban is one of the best teams in the state? Do I think they are the best team in AA? If I was dating Emma Watson would I accidentally call her Hermione at least twice a day?

 

The answer to all these questions is “yes”. So am I just picking an upset here to be fun and interesting? Is this another one of those etrain v. Jarrett things? Why would Emma Watson ever date you?

 

These are all fair questions. But I assure you, this is not just some shock value prediction, this is my honest opinion. York Suburban has run spectacular both times they competed at the Hershey course. They had an impressive win over Grove City at Foundation and they handled things some strong teams at Districts without much difficulty. Carlisle was a huge moment for them that proved to everyone that they arrived and belonged in the discussion with the best teams across all divisions, not just AA. They showed impressive depth through 6 guys in recent weeks as well. Plus Wilt and Mears are impressive front runners who both should be medalists this weekend.

 

However, Grove City has showed serious promise in recent weeks. This past weekend at districts Ryan Budnik, a top 10 guy from last year’s state meet, was their #5 man. Benka won the district championship against a very strong runner in Andrew Maxwell. DePew stepped up to finish 4th overall in the race and suddenly became a top 30 threat at states. That’s huge at #3. If he has another race like that and pulls Pyle along, Grove City has a killer top 4. And they have enough depth at 5-6-7 to compete with York Suburban, although I do think YS is better here. Grove City has the “nobody believes in us” thing going right now which is fantastic motivation for cross country runners. We eat that stuff up.

 

I think this state battle comes down to just a few points here or there. Benka and Budnik should draw even with Wilt and Mears as front runners. DePew and Pyle may be better than Oleh, Wagner, Lofties and Barley and then McConnell keeps it reasonably close between the 5s. That basically draws the two teams dead even (for the record in a tie, I think York will have the better 6th, so Grove City will likely have to win outright).

 

Here is what I see as the deciding factors that should swing the title:

How will Budnik bounce back? Can he reproduce his performance from last year?

How will York Suburban’s 3-4 of Oleh and Wagner (freshman and sophomore) handle the pressure of their first state championship?

How will York Suburban handle the back to back weeks at Hershey?

 

I was picking York Suburban up until about 20 hours ago and then I made the switch. I think this will be an incredibly exciting race and I won’t rule out the possibility that another team sneaks by these two and wins the state title, I just think it will likely come down to these two squads.

 

The AA squads are going to be really fun to watch this year in what should be a battle for every spot. I’m excited to see how these teams and individuals measure up to the AAA teams at Meet of Champs.

 

Oh, right. Nevermind.