The Stretch Run

FYI you can still bet below, the betting closes tonight at 1 am.

Hey there everyone so as you may or may not already know I am in the process of working on complete predictions for all state qualifiers for all districts. I'm also interested in using these predictions to make a series of podcasts on district predictions. I'm pretty sure Sean and Evan will be down to help out but there are 12 districts (probably about 6 of which will need previews) so if you are willing to jump on board and help out I need your help! jarrettfelix1130@gmail.com

Now I'd to bring you my 11 big questions for this home stretch to district season. These are things I'll be on high alert for until we hit show time.

1) I'm really interested to see the NA vs Lebo match up again at Tri States. The Cal course is a place the Lebo team excels at, having dominated the invite there for years. The last time these two squads met Lebo was within striking distance of the Tigers and they seemed to only be improving. Todd Gunz is now developing into a running mate for Baun out front and their pack of Harris, Stone and Brandenstein is solid. But NA has shown strong improvements as well and their 4-5 are looking much stronger than pre states. We will see how realistic a Lebo upset at WPIALs is after these squads meet at Tri States.

2) The District 3 championship race is crazy, as has been thoroughly documented. This weekend will play a big role in sorting out the madness as many of the top teams face each other at Mid Penns. The key for me will be watching the 4-5 runners on Red Land, Carlisle, Hershey and Lower Dauphin. There are some killer top 3s there (particularly Red Land) but the thing that may end up separating these squads is the 4-5 punch. As of right now Twin Valley and Cumberland Valley probably have the deepest teams on paper that I have seen. So if these squads want to knock a team like TV out of the top 5, it's going to take a strong pack effort in addition to some strong front running. McCaskey will be curiously watching from afar.

3) Seriously, who isn't excited for Chesmonts? Henderson v. DTWest has had some serious hype brewing and the teams were about as even as you could get at Carlisle. Yes, I'm interested to see if West can pull the mild upset and break Hendersons hold on the conference and a rivalry is always nice to see, but I'm looking at this race to see the possible district implications. I've crunched the numbers and I honestly feel that after Stoga there is no lock for states (agreeing with one of the commenters out there). Henderson needs to sure up their 5 and continue to show front running improvement from their big 3. DT West needs to show that their 2-3-4-5 are ready for the big stage at districts and ready to help carry the load behind Sappey. I'm thinking Sappey is a top 5-10 guy at districts this year the way he is running, so if you sure up the guys behind him they are in great shape. I expect both teams to make it to states (currently tentatively slotted at 2-3 for districts) but a confidence boosting performance is always nice.

4) The District 1 AA playoff race has quietly been one of the best in the state. Pottsgrove is the two time defending champs, but Holy Ghost prep is breathing down their necks behind Mcloughlin and Lennon. HGPrep is the favorites right now in my mind: they have a solid pack and nice front running. But Pottsgrove has consistently been strong with a state championship and a state runner up performance the past two years. Lopez has been a fantastic front runner to lead on and guys like Underwood have been coming on strong as of late.

The real wild card here is Bishop Shanahan. They gave Pottsgrove plenty of trouble at Pre States and have a nice pack of guys to build around going into districts with Breslin helping lead the way. They could sneak in there and flip the script if they have their day at Lehigh. Remember there is only 1 spot and 3 teams want it. The winner is probably a top 5 team at AA states.

5) CRN and Pennsbury are currently my 5 and 6 teams in the district. But I feel I don't have a strong grasp on eithers ability. What ought to help is the fact that these two squads will square off at their league championship meet soon and some questions can be answered. I'm actually big time on the Pennsbury bandwagon this year. I like Bortman, Wick and Tokar as quality pack guys and I think Sauer is going to have a strong day on the fast Lehigh course. My appreciation for Sam Webb has never really been well hidden. But CRN consistently delivers every year. This meet is usually where they start to show their cards and begin their breakout three week stretch.

Plus Bensalem is at this meet. It's a good chance to see if they are a top 10 team in the district this year. I like their top 3 a lot going forward.

6) If the CRN v Pennsbury matchup gets you excited, then you are going to love the CB West v CB East v North Penn v Hatboro Horsham match up taking place the same day.

Look West is the best team of the bunch in my eyes. My most recent scoring of the district meet, spit out a second place finish for these guys. But they are a young team who still has to solidify their pack at the front of the district meet and Fortna needs to break into the top 15 or so to help them get a front running boost.

But honestly, CB West will mainly be a measuring stick for me to see how good these other squads are. These teams are in the red hot battle for 6-10 at districts, which is going to be a highly thrilling competition (that would mean a bit more if there was a meet of ... Never mind let's not go there). Comber and Brophy match up for the top front runner spot and North Penn will look to showcase their sneaky good top 3 of Collins, Tung and Cooney. You also have to watch guys like Sands, Timm and Irwin who have been solid in recent weeks. I'm very curious which of these teams snatches the momentum heading into the district one championships.

7) I'm going to be doing a little research into the word "bae". It seems affectionate enough but I want to make sure there is no hidden offensiveness in there before I call someone "bae". Because Pharrell is cool.

8) Can North Hills put the lock down on the 3rd spot in district 7? Their top 3 looked fantastic last week, but their 4-5 aren't quite good enough to put hope out of the mind for teams like Pitts CC, Baldwin and Fox Chapel. Pitts has got a developing pack behind star front runner Van Kooten and Fox Chapel's top three is comparable to NH when things are clicking. North Hills can either slip into this group or take a big step towards chomping at the heels of Lebo and NA depending on how their 4-5 race between now at WPIALs.

9) I think LaSalle is a seriously underrated team at this point in the year. They have a killer pack, they just need to get it to the front of the field. I am expecting them to make some impressive strides over the next few weeks so they can peak at wonderfully at states. And they have the perfect stretch run to prove themselves. They get Stoga and then back to back matchups with O'Hara. They have a huge opportunity for a statement.

Also we can use LaSalle as a convenient measuring stick to compare Conestoga and O'Hara, two of the early favorites for the state title.

10) Fun fact, now that the PCL sends two teams, I think they have a shot to send 3.

Wait what?

With 10 individuals going to states and LaSalle and O'Hara not counting towards those individuals, St Joe's Prep needs to sneak 5 or more guys into the top 20-25 spots and they are taking a trip out to Hershey as well. It's possible with Piscano and Fisher leading the way and a hungry pack behind them.

11) Do the A and AA teams race again before WPIALs? I hope so, because I'm lost on predicting who is going to get through to Hershey. The A race is super tight with Avonworth, Sewickley, Winchester Thurston and Sacred Heart (who I currently have ranked in that order) all likely finishing within a few points of each other. AA is going to be tight too with Quaker Valley, West Allegheny, Beaver and Knoch (an underrated squad) among others. It's a really deep race of teams.

And is Dom Perretta still around? Hopefully he's healthy and ready to flip the script on everyone the last month of the season.


Overall this is one of the best years to be a fan. The team title races are all absurd, there is so much still left to be proven and decided. And starting this weekend, things begin to clear up.

So really the only thing left to say is ... Come get it bae.