States Week: AAA Teams Predictions

So I have been agonizing over this decision for weeks. I built an entire excel file to model the AAA state championship and scored it out completely to include the top 7 runners from all qualified teams. I’ve spent the past week constantly updating and adjusting, trying to come up with the best estimate for what is going to happen.

 

You got a feel for which way I was leaning in my last post where I detailed the tiers every team in which every team was currently slotted. Now you get to find out my exact predictions. I won’t discuss all the teams but I will give you the top 12 (which ends up being the top 13 because there is a tie at 12).

 

*12. 254- Carlisle (3)

*12. 254- Downingtown West (1)

 

I have both teams scoring the same amount of total points, but West edging out Carlisle on the 6th man tie breaker. Downingtown West faltered a bit at districts, but they still showed fantastic depth. The problem was they didn’t prove they had fire power behind Sappey. They matched up well with Henderson at Chesmonts and now have the chance to run with a chip on their shoulder at states. However, they are a fairly young and inexperienced team and that always makes me scared when we get to Hershey.

 

As for Carlisle, I believe they have a strong top 3, which is half the battle at states. Wisner has been coming on strong in recent weeks and Brehm is always a threat to win any race he enters. Carlisle peaked perfectly last year for the best finish district 3 has had at states in a long time so slotting them here may be a poor choice, but without Wisner and DeAngelo breaking into the top 40 it’s hard for me to slot them higher than here.

 

11. 236- State College (6)

 

State College has a potentially very similar team to the one they had a year ago. I think Milligan is a medalist and Feffer can be at least what their #2 was a year ago, if not in the 40s. The key will be Wing, Beyerle and Heatwole matching up against some of the other teams in this “tier 3” group and coming out on top. One more guy running with Feffer would be big.

 

10. 231- Cumberland Valley (3)

 

Cumberland Valley has the potential to explode this weekend and really impress. They usually do a good job holding back at districts to get through to states. There have been some inconsistencies in their top 5 that are a little worrisome, but I expect them to have an improved race at states this weekend compared to districts. Soliman and Seeber need to have races closer to Higgins to get the job done. It was encouraging to see a big race from the freshman Schultz at districts, which gives them some flexibility at the 5 spot.

 

9. 230- Central Bucks West (1)

 

We are in a section of the meet where every point counts and even small changes in order can affect who ends up where. CBW rose from somewhere around 13th up to 8th and then back down to 9th while I was finalizing things which shows you how fragile this ordering is. The key for West will be their sophomores Iatarola and McDonald. Those guys ran fantastic races at districts and hopefully can handle their first appearance on the state course. I think Fortna and maybe Davies will have strong days, but I worry about the inexperience and the youth. Plus their spread is a little bit larger than you would think back to the 5 spot despite their incredible depth (maybe a substitution to the line-up coming this weekend?).

 

8. 226- Easton (11)

 

I’ve made no secret, I’m on the Easton bandwagon. They have two low sticks and a solid 3-4-5 that are underrated. In a front loaded meet like states, this team can jump a lot of squads that lack fire power out front. Lapsansky has a bit of pressure to perform as this is his first time running the state race with a medal and a team score on the line, but mainly they need Sherman to continue what he did at districts and Grunwald to bounce back at the 4. They are a bit inexperienced after that top 2, but they have strong big race experience with PTXC and Paul Short on the schedule. Bottom line is their front running may just be too much.

 

7. 219- Council Rock North (1)

 

CRN has been consistently on the rise and although they didn’t “wow” anyone at districts, they got the job done and got to states. Arita looks like a medalist and I think Griswold can challenge for a top 50 spot. Their 3-4-5 have been tightly bunched the last two weeks and should be bunched again at states. They need to crack the top 80 or so to have a shot at a top 5 spot. And it has to be the 3-4-5 as the 6-7 have struggled to close the gap on the scorers. My guess is they end up here at 7th, but considering what program this is they could easily surprise.

 

6. 208- Mt Lebanon (7)

 

Lebo had a rough race at WPIALs but as I have mentioned before, this is not a new occurrence. I expect a bounce back and I still have the memory of this team’s run at Pre States fresh in my mind. I’m thinking that Baun and T Gunz are both going to be in the medal hunt, giving them a strong 1-2. After that there will be some pressure on Harris, Stone and the freshman Brandenstein to step up and give these guys a strong 3-4-5. The nice thing is Lebo has shown solid depth at 6 and 7 which should give them a lift if something goes wrong at Hershey. I also think Brandenstein will excel at Hershey like he did at Pre States and a hungry Lebo team should manage to just edge out CRN.

 

5. 196- West Chester Henderson (1)

 

This is one of the more wide-open state championships in recent memory (2011 and 2009 were kind of wide open and 2010 you could argue for as well) which has prompted some to buy into the possibility of a WCH upset here at states. The key will be the 5 spot because a score anywhere above 80 basically buries your chances of getting the W or even probably top 3. I think the 5 spot makes sense for Henderson, but they can jump any of the teams behind them with a big day at 5 or if another team’s top 5 guy has an off day of their own. However, Henderson could also slip down the rankings if their top 4 isn’t on their game. Smucker, the teams stud frosh, is the wildcard, but the team would also get a big lift from Swart and/or Barchet joining Knapp in the top 30.

 

4. 149- LaSalle (12)

 

The great thing about LaSalle is their incredible depth through 7 guys. Their pieces have proven to be so interchangeable that an off day from anyone on their squad doesn’t kill their chances at victory (no other team can say that). But their gift could also be a curse. It’s simple, somebody has to step up and get into the medals. The rest will follow. The good news? They have lots of guys with the potential to do so. Probably why between my two sets of predictions I got 4 different guys into the top 50 wearing LaSalle unis.

 

3. 147- Conestoga (1)

I still believe this team can be quite dangerous on the right day. A big day from Cooper and this team could get 4 in the top 50. Marston is a killer front runner and Nelson might be able to grab a medal. This team is experienced after 6 of their 7 ran states last year and they have solid depth. Overall, they haven't done quite enough to prove their top 3 can out duel the top 2 teams horses, but they should be a top 3-5 team. Cooper and Murray (who didn't run here last year) will be key in determining where they end up in the title race.

 

2. 131- O’Hara (12)

 

1. 115- North Allegheny (7)

If I was a novelist here is how I would have this state championship unfold: O'Hara wins the state championship on a 6th man tie breaker. It would be some beautiful poeticness to end KJs career.

While it's not out of the question, I don't see it happening. I compared OH to 2010 NA and their state title run and I think the similarities still hold. They even had a little drama with LaSalle just like NA did with Baldwin (although James won't have to deal with injuries like Gil did). But I think ironically enough the team that defeats them is 2014 NA. 

Both teams have killer top 3s. O'Hara has a potential champ and 2 other solid medal hopes. So does North Allegheny. Those 6 will probably play each other to a draw while simultaneously separating these two teams to a step above the rest. Then it comes down to the 4-5 and, here NA has been better in recent weeks. Joe Stupak is on a roll. He has been impressive at both Tri States (brutally hilly course) and WPIALs and has a chance at cracking the top 50 overall. He will be matched up with Donovan/Pastore at the 4 spot. This is the match up that should decide things. Along with the 5 spot (Dieble and Miggz for NA against most likely the other one in the Donovan/Pastore pairing).

NA has shown more here so they get the nod. However, last year the O'Hara boys got step up days from both Pastore and Ryan James at the 4-5 spots in an unexpected turn of events that allowed them to compete for a close 3rd at states. Those guys were running in and out of the top 5 all year but stepped up when it counted. That's the thing, you never know with states.

This would be a nice win for the seniors at NA. When these freshman came in they were the next big thing in PA XC. They nearly worked their way into an upset state title their freshman year. Their sophomore year they briefly worked their way into state title talks before fading to 4th. As Juniors they were expected to keep things close with Henderson, but end up nearly being caught from behind. Now the pressure is on to squeeze out a state title with one of the best classes PA ever saw (although losing Seamus Love hurts that sentence). McGoey, probably the best NA guy since Gil, looks to repeat what Gil did his senior year and lead his team to a state gold after 3 years of disappointing finishes and near misses.

Any way you spin it, we are in for an epic state championship.