Paul Short Preview

Well ladies and gentleman, it's official October. The weather is cooler, the ground is firmer and fast times are sure to come in the near future.

But probably not this Saturday, as weather reports are predicting an 100% chance of rain. (Side note, how can there be an 100% CHANCE of rain. It's a contradiction in itself. I was really proud of myself when I thought this up 6 months ago).

All the same, we have an incredible field lined up for the Paul Short meet this weekend and a light mist could cool down the course and make for semi ideal conditions. Plus the weatherman has been wrong before so let's not count any chickens before it rains. Or whatever the expression is.

Brown Race

Teams

There are some interesting story lines for the Brown race this weekend, but one of the most interesting is that we almost definitely will not be seeing a 1 vs 2 matchup between Malvern Prep and Conestoga. The interview on milesplit of Marston after McQuaid (great interview by the way, Mars seems like a fun dude) says that Stoga is off this weekend and racing at Manhattan instead. The other big takeaway was I like those black unis, but feel like the classic Stoga jerseys may be my favorite in the end. We will see what happens. It's one of the things I'll be watching most this season.

Another fun takeaway is that Manhattan is a 4k which means still no 5k for the Stoga guys. Not anything to worry about I just find it humorous more so than anything.

So with Stoga out, the Jaxson 5 will look to take over. There isn't another team from PA that should challenge them in my eyes. 

We will see some thrilling district battles. District 11 headlines the show here. Easton, Parkland and Freedom are all ready to prove they deserve a spot to states next month. Easton is the favorite out of the 3 in most peoples eyes because of their two excellent front runners. They also have clearly been aiming to run fast here and seem quite rested. Freedom and Parkland are coming off strong showings at Carlisle.

Freedom struggled a bit at Carlisle because of their injury issues. They had a strong top 3 and Quigley proved he can be a front runner. If they can get Zeigler back and healthy they have two potential top 50 guys at states plus a decent 3-4. That makes them a nice match up for Parkland. Plus the effect of losing their 5 to injury is neutralized a bit at a smaller district meet compared to Paul short and Carilse. Keep that in mind this weekend.

Parkland I see as a real sleeper. They made big improvements from PTXC to DeSales (where they beat Twin Valley) and then Carlisle. Now they will show case a strong top 3 and underrated 4-5 and have a realistic shot at being the #2 PA team at this meet behind Malvern Prep. 

The district 3 madness is beginning to become overly documented on this site so I won't go too in depth about them here. That being said this meet will be a huge chance for Twin Valley, Hershey and GM to see how they stack up against CV at a big invite. I'm thinking Cumberland Valley has a real nice race this weekend and I think it starts with a big day from Owen Seeber. CV lost to Parkland and McCaskey last weekend and had Carlisle breathing down their necks. Now they face a new crowd of state hopefuls. Very intrigued to watch Hershey run this weekend particularly Will Sponaugle. I'm hoping to see Yurchak back for Hempfield as well. I expect Governor Mifflin to have made nice improvements from their early season meet, particularly interested to see how Luckanitz runs on the faster Lehigh course. 

Then there is a GFS squad who has the potential to turn heads. Dahl and Hepp are two guys I see having big days Saturday. No clue how good this squad is so I'm looking forward to their match up with these teams, most of which sit right around the edge of my top 10 (besides Malvern of course). 

From a d1 perspective we will see some intriguing teams in Rustin, Bensalem and Spring Ford. All of these are potential top 10 teams in the loaded district one, and that's a great achievement. Rustin has likely been looking forward to this meet for a long time. This is there first real chance to show their stuff since probably Oakburne. 

Also got Scranton Prep (looking to answer York Suburbans challenge) who could pull a similar style upset in this race and beat out a lot of these AAA squads. And Pottsgrove will be here with Elk Lake, a A state title contender. Pottsgrove will be watching HGPrep carefully in the white race. Same goes for Elk Lake and Holy Cross in District 2.

Individuals 

Here are my top 25 predictions for the race. I'm not gonna throw up times because weather is such an issue but I will see I expect the 2-5 places to all be within a couple seconds. Also I'm going somewhat bold with my predictions here to keep things interesting. So try not to get too worked up over anything. Just looking to have some fun with it.

25. Q. Wasko, CV

24. O. Seeber, CV

23. T. Mays, Bensalem

22. J. Piscano, St. joe's

21. J. Luckanitz, Govenor Mifflin 

Foot speed can really help over the last 1k where lots of these spots will be earned. I like Luckanitz to use his mile speed for a big day. Mays had an under the radar strong race at CRN and I expect his improvement to continue this weekend.

20. C. Holm, Radnor

19. W. Sponaugle, Hershey

18. S. Smith, Towanda

17. H. Geiger, Parkland

16. I. Fisher, St. Joe's

I'm a big fan of both SJ Prep kids this year. Fisher gets the nod here because I think he has a bit better speed and will handle the flat stuff better than Piscano who has been great on hills. Holm is a real wildcard. He actually ran better at states than districts last year and still appeared to be rounding into shape at Carlisle. This will be another big test for him. Spon gets the nod over teammate Aiden Demko because of his mile speed, but Demko is a sleeper pick for this race just outside my top 25.

15. C. Wills, Malvern Prep

14. M. Scarpill, CB South

13. B. Szuhaj, Penn Charter

12. M. Kravitz, North Pocono

11. J. Kirshenbaum, Methacton

I see bounce back races on the horizon for Scarpill and Kirshenbaum. I'm a big Scarpill fan for some of his gutsy frosh performances and I think that could carry well to this meet. Kirsh struggled at Hershey but with a week off to recover and remotivate he has major sleeper potential this weekend.

I'm big on Kravitz this weekend. I think he has a real memorable day. I'm glad this isn't a podcast so I don't have to pronounce Ben Szuhaj. 

10. D. Quigley, Freedom

9. Jo. Hoey, Malvern Prep

8. G. Hepp, GFS

7. K. Lapsansky, Easton

6. B. McDevitt, Malvern Prep

I like this group a lot. I have to maybe temper my expectations for Josh here, I forget he is somehow just a frosh despite his excellent running. McDevitt has been really strong, finishing only behind top 5-10 guys in the state. I see the same thing this weekend. I see a big day for Hepp as well. I'm all in on the GFS boys this weekend. Like all in, all in. 

5. Ja. Hoey

4. G. Molino

Yes I just put what is possibly PA's best two shots at nationals at 4-5. I'm worried about Jaxson after last weeks falls. I don't buy into any of the over racing stuff because I think that's silly (look at Ross Wilson in outdoor track the last two years and all his hard 2 miles), but I do think mentally he could be shaken from the falls. It's hard to push yourself to the limit after a scary moment like that. I think he needs a race or two to get his confidence back. 

As for Molino, I'm a little nervous about this being his first big test of the year. I'm interested to see how he handles the big dogs. He's traveling the farthest of the top guys and he's the most out of his element. He has the speed and the talent to run well here, but i think in the end he and Hoey get beat out the final 400m.

3. P. Power, Spring Ford

2. N. Dahl, GFS

1. C. Abert, Easton

Abert is going to be most comfortable in his back yard so to speak. He's the most big race ready and he's the freshest. I think he controls this race and really takes over the last mile. That's how Furcht ran so fast here. The last mile he burned everyone big time. 

Abert actually has an underrated ability to close over the final 800m. He did well the last two state meets doing that. He just usually is winning by so much he doesn't get a chance to show his strength. Probably won't be able to dominate this field Saturday so we should see his full range of abilities.

After Abert pulls away I think Molino and Hoey will chase. If this thing is fast from the gun Power and Dahl can jus sit back and ride it out. That's what Power did at Pre States against James and Brophy it appeared. He let them burn themselves out a bit leading the first half. 

For some reason I see Dahl having a huge day. I think he will kick down the last 600 and barely edge out Power for 3rd. This may be premature, but I believe that Dahl is a special talent. This may be too early to call his breakout race coming, but I think this course suits him well as a stud track guy last year. 

Like I said, I'm all in on GFS this weekend.

I've got Malvern Prep, GFS, Easton, CV, Parkland as my top 5 teams, in that order. Good luck Rob Hewitt. No pressure.

Sleeper individuals include Carmody, Mills, Perry, Newman and Fitch.

White Race

Not quite the fire power of the brown race, but I think there are some interesting story lines. I've got a top 5 of 

5. K. Gonoude, Salisbury

4. L. Galligan, Springfield

3. G. Allgayer, Mercersburg Academy

2. B. Wilson, Central Dauphin

1. J. DeGroot-Lutzner, Masterman

JDL has been fantastic this year and I think he should grab another win this weekend. Wilson from CD should give him a good run for his money as a 4:20ish guy with strong speed, but I think JDL's endurance and strength will prevail in the end.

Gonoude has big potential here and I'm really high on him this year. That being said, he hasn't raced enough in big invites to give me confidence he is ready to roll this weekend. Whether Galligan is a soph or a frosh he is still running very strong this year after an under the radar runner up finish to Perlman. I'd say he's a sleeper pick to go out and win the race. Allgayer from Mercersburg has had his own under the radar start to the year with an impressive runner up to Dan Green out at big spring. I'm interested to see if he can do as well on the flats as on the hills. 

Others to watch include O'Reilly from DTEast and Ethan Fadale from Selingsgrove. 

Very excited To see this meet go down. I'll be doing my not rain dance to try and help everybody out.