District 6 Predictions

AAA

State College heads into town as the defending champions after defeating Altoona 30-31 a year ago. State College went on to become a top 4 team at states while the squad that dethroned them (Toona) had to settle for sending 4 individuals and not getting to see how their team stacked up with the rest of the best (for the record, I’m guessing they would have been pretty darn solid). Darien Knudsen slipped in at #5 and was the reason that Altoona only could send four guys to states. I believe he was a Junior last year, but he has been MIA all this season, so I am assuming he will not be back to contest this meet. Likely filling in his place in the spoiler role will be teammate Keenan Walker.

You could easily make the argument that District 6 deserves two spots just as District 12 did. Altoona and State College have both been strong programs for the last decade, but one team has inevitably missed the chance to show just how good, last year being possibly the biggest injustice of the bunch. That’s not even accounting for the fact that Mifflin County has had some sneaky good teams as well over the years that have gone unnoticed beneath the shadow of the top dogs.

So what I would suggest is drop the link between teams and individuals. Why can’t District 6 just send two teams and 5 individuals? You’re still looking at roughly half the field qualifying for states, but most of the time half the field is state caliber guys.

Regardless of what solution you feel is best, I think it is clear that some very good teams have been left home out of D6 over the past few years and it is likely that a few more will be left home in the future unless we make a change to the system. Or add a Meet of Champs. Keep in touch PTFCA.

But enough blabbering about this politicking stuff, let’s get to the predictions! I was expecting a pretty epic Altoona v. State College rematch this year and, although it’s not impossible, it looks like it won’t quite play out that way on race day. For starters, the injury bug has struck A-Town and the defending district champ, Dom Stroh, has been MIA most of this year. He was a key front runner that Toona would need to utilize to edge out State College. I also didn’t see Uliano at Carlisle or Tri States, I’m not sure if he is healthy, but he’s a key member of Altoona’s projected top 5 guys. Stroh had a solid showing in the JV race at Tri States but I hesitate to put too much pressure on him.

In addition, we need to give credit where credit is due. State College has been very impressive in the last few weeks. They defeated Carlisle in a dual meet (where Carlisle’s potent top 3 are much more dangerous) and were a hard fought second at Mid Penn, coming close to an upset victory over Cumberland Valley. Despite losing Senior leaders Will Cather, Kyle Adams and Chris Golembeski, they have reloaded led by a breakout year from Alex Milligan. I expected Milligan to take a mini-leap this year after his track seasons, but I didn’t expect him to pull a potent varsity squad with him. Matt Beyerle and Eric Heatwole, varsity members of last year’s district champs, have been joined by Nick Feffer and Owen Wing, a couple of emerging young studs. Owen Wing had a huge day as State College’s #5 at Mid Penns. If he continues to improve, SC has no significant weakness in their top 5 which makes them a dangerous team come states time when every point matters.

Altoona won’t just roll over at Districts. They will be led by Brad Foust, a state medalist last year and the top finisher from District 6 at states. Behind him Jerrod Sunderland and Dima Kunstbeck will look to challenge the State College pack and vie for one of the state spots. Sunderland is coming off a huge race at Tri States where he beat some former state medalists in Faust and Van Kooten. He is an intriguing individual to watch if he can build momentum at Districts. I wouldn’t completely rule out Altoona “pulling a LaSalle” and squeezing five guys into the 5 non SC spots and sneaking on by to states. Altoona will need a big day from Sunderland and Kunstbeck, but also would really benefit from having a healthy Stroh and Uliano in the line-up. If they can’t go, it will be up to George, McCarthy and Smith to try and fill their shoes and help Altoona send a team to states.

Everyone should be watching Keenan Walker of Mifflin County. If he has the day he is capable of he will grab one of the individual spots to states and end any dreams of the Altoona/SC loser getting a spot on the line at states. I see him as the only real competitor for a top 14 spot that won’t be wearing an Altoona or State College jersey. A Foust v. Milligan show down should decide the individual crown. I like Foust to get the W in a bounce back race from Tri States, but Milligan will give him all he can handle. After these two, I think it’s a big pack of State College guys that can only be broken up by a reasonably healthy Stroh or Knudsen.

Here are my final predictions for the race:

1       State College           25

2       Altoona         34

1       Foust           Altoona

2       Milligan        State College

3       Beyerle State College

4       Sunderland      Altoona

5       Feffer          State College

6       Stroh           Altoona

7       Heatwole       State College

8       Wing            State College

9       Walker          Mifflin County

10      Balogh          State College (6)

11      Kunstbeck       Altoona

12      George          Altoona

13      Clauer         State College (7)

14      McCarthy        Altoona (6)

15      Smith           Altoona (7)

AA

The District 6 AA race will, ironically, likely be highlighted by the teams from District 5. Will Kachman is the defending champ and seems to be finding his stride in recent weeks with some strong wins after tough runs at Altoona and Carlisle. Kachman was third at states a year ago as a sophomore and second at states in the 3200m last outdoors, both finishes came directly behind Dominic Hockenbury. Kachman is determined to defend his title and prepare for a state title match against his old rival. But the more importantly, Will wants to grab the “W” at Districts to give his team the best chance it can to make it to states as a team.

Bedford was beat out a year ago by District rivals Somerset who used a strong pack to outduel Bedford’s front runner. Somerset looked impressive at their conference meet behind strong runs by Shane Ickes and Dominic Mazzariello and have a very strong top four. Their best four guys were comfortably ahead of Bedford’s 3 and 4, Tew and Zubak. However, Bedford’s front running will be very valuable at the smaller district meet. Kachman looks like he will defend his title and his teammate Baker has been following him closely all season. They may be able to pull out a 1-2 finish, giving them a nice boost. Tew and the Zubak brothers round out Bedford’s top 5 and they will be the key to a Bedford victory. They will need to keep things close behind Emert and Johnson, Somerset’s 3-4.

I see this battle coming right down to the wire, probably coming down to just 1 or 2 points and possibly even a 6th man tie-breaker. I think the Bedford 3-5 has a big day, but ultimately, I think Somerset has enough depth to sneak by and earn themselves a ticket to states. I expect this race to be the most exciting team battle of the three contested.

       

Individually, Kachman is the heavy favorite and should retain his title. As mentioned, his teammate Zane Baker will look to provide a boost and find a way to get second. In his way will be the duo of Brian Hackman and Eli Urban from St. Joesph’s as well as Garrett Sutton from Penn Cambria. Hackman and Urban have been a great one-two punch for the past two seasons and both should be among the 5 qualifiers for the state championships. Don’t sleep on Hackman for the individual title, he looked great at his league meet and should have a nice race at Districts. Other names to keep an eye on include Zook and Kohler from Tyrone as well as Ickes and Mazzariello from Somerset. Mazzariello is a rapidly improving freshman that is a dangerous sleeper in this race. The Somerset boys would get a big boost from one of their front runners cracking the top 5. A sleeper worth including is O’Donnell from Bellefonte.

Wow I made it through an entire post about Bedford and didn’t make a single “It’s A Wonderful Life Reference”. Take that Mr. Potter.

Ultimately, here are my picks. As before, the bolded are those who are state qualifiers. The italicized are those who just missed and are “bubble” contenders.

1       Somerset        61

2       Bedford 62

3       St. Joesphs

1       Kachman Bedford

2       Hackman St. Joesphs

3       Baker           Bedford

4       Sutton          Penn Cambria

5       Urban           St. Joesphs

6       Ickes           Somerset

7       Zook            Tyrone

8       Patrick         Longier Valley

9       Kohler          Tyrone

10      Mazzariello     Somerset

11      O'Donnell       Belefonte

12      Emert           Somerset

A

Two teams will make the trip to Hershey out of District 6 A and the two heavy favorites to do so are the same two that did it a season ago. Central Cambria is the defending champs ahead of Penns Valley from a season ago. Both teams have had strong moments this year and have a slew of talent with which to work. This race should also be close between the top teams and although I expect both to comfortably slide on to states, the pride of winning a district title should motivate both sides to do their best work.

I’m leaning towards Cambria for the win as of right now. I think they are a bit deeper and will likely be led by the individual champ, Bryce Descavish. Descavish has been on fire this season with his top five finish in the champions race at Carlisle giving us a strong idea of his potential. He’s still on the young side, but I think he has enough big race experience and talent to pull out the win. Behind him he will need Neuman to battle with Penns Valley’s very formidable top 3. Then it will be up to Murin, Lambie and Walwro to keep a tight spread through to the finish.

One of Penns Valley’s best runners this season and last has been Nick Fuller who should contend to grab the district title away from Descavish this year. He had a strong early season race at Big Valley and a nice race at Pre States. However, the big news out of the Penn Valley camp came at leagues when their freshman Chris Colwell surprised everyone with the win over his teammates Fuller and Mothersbaugh. I’m not positive, but my guess is Colwell is probably related to former Mifflin County star Jon Colwell. This is huge for Penn Valley as they now have a very dangerous top 3 that could be even more valuable at states than districts. Griffith is solid at the 4 spot and Duvall came into his own a bit in recent weeks, finishing s a decent #5 man. If he can just keep things close with the Central Cambria pack, Penns Valley should claim a district championship.

Both of these squads hold the most likely title hopefuls: Descavish, Fuller and Colwell. But outside of those three Tate from Penns Manor, Wiles from Marion Center and Eckroth from Richland will look to lock up individual spots. Another name that has recently come on to the scene is freshman Sam Cunkleman from Homer Center (the alma mater of former super star Angel Piccirillo). He is coming off a big win at Heritage and is a sleeper pick for the title. The pack from Bishop McCourt will look to “pull a LaSalle” (yes this is a thing now) and sneak their top 5 into the 10 individual qualifying spots. I think they are going to come up a tad short but Schulte and Huffman are names to watch as individuals. Ultimately, I think the freshman Colwell will need a little bit more seasoning before he is ready to surprise for the District title. I think Descavish takes the title followed closely by Fuller and Colwell.

Here’s what the numbers say. Keep in mind that even though one team may be projected less points than another, ultimately I make my decision based on my gut rather than the numbers. But here is the thing, the numbers are purely a result of the order I put everyone in which is basically purely a result of my gut. So the numbers are my gut. Yeah, I’m confused too.

1       Central Cambria 62

2       Penns Valley            56

3       Bishop McCourt

1       Descavish       Central Cambria

2       Fuller          Penns Valley

3       Colwell         Penns Valley

4       Cunkleman       Homer Center

5       Tate            Penns Manor

6       Eckroth         Richland

7       Wiles           Marion Center

8       Mothersbaugh    Penns Valley

9       Schulte         Bishop McCourt

10      Neuman  Central Cambria

11      Moore           Purchase Line

12      Huffman Bishop McCourt

13      Learn           Purchase Line

14      Dautlick        Cambria Heights

15      Walwro  Central Cambria

16      Lambie          Central Cambria

17      Eckenford       Bishop McCourt

18      Griffith                Penns Valley

19      Alabran Marion Center

20      Murin           Central Cambria