States Week: AAA Team Preview

I'm doing a little analysis of all the teams. Put them in some ranked tiers. These are not official predictions (I'm not ready to drop those just yet, I'm not quite 6 god ready for all my drake fans) but these should give you an idea of where my thoughts are. Here are my views from the 7 ....

Tier 5 (18-20)

Hazleton (2)

McDowell (10)

Allerdice (8)

It's hard when you are a small district team and you get in a race like states, it's hard to compete. Even if you are a talent team you need big race experience. My friend from Nazareth always said the D11 kids used to struggle because they couldn't handle the big crowds of top talent. Most people went out way too fast or way too slow. That's what these guys are facing.

Hazelton is a team of mostly freshman and they haven't made states in a number of years so this is a completely inexperienced roster. That's a tough test for any squad. McDowell was here last year so they have a bit more experience, but they have a front runner who is a freshman and again that inexperience is dangerous at states. Allerdice has been competing in D7 a lot recently which gives me a bit more confidence in them. 

Tier 4 (15-17)

Parkland (11)

Canon Mac (7)

Twin Valley (3)

I really like the Parkland squad this year. It's just a loaded year. They have a nice top 3 and a deep squad through 7. If their top 3 can handle the pressure of states like they did at meets like Carlisle, they could really surprise. Geiger, Kyvelos and Newman are going to have to go after a top 50 spot to help this team make real noise and crack the next tier.

Canon Mac real impressed at WPIALs. I don't think anyone was expecting them to run quite that well and they made a big statement. My understanding is that Weese won't be competing at states because his religion doesn't allow him to run on Saturdays. That's a big blow to this teams top 5 guys. I'm a little worried that they had their best day at districts and won't be able to recapture the same magic at states. I like Linderman as a front runner and Strosko has some experience here, but they will be relying on big performances from some Sophs in the top 5. They have proven me wrong before, but my nerves slot them here.

Twin Valley is now at their second straight state meet. They have a complete 5 and a nice 6 waiting in the wings on the right day. They have senior leadership, return a top 50 guy from a year ago and have a stud in Coakley who is having a fantastic year. So why do I slot them here? I'm not sure they have the front running to beat some of these really good teams ahead of them. Plus they are a district 3 team so that means they have that whole back to back Hershey thing floating overhead.

I'll say this though, they are the most likely team to turn the tables on my tiers. If I was predicting I probably have them over Hempfield but Hempfield deserves respect as the D3 champs. Plus tier 3 was already huge ...

Loaded Tier 3, this is no particular order ...

Tier 3 (8-14)

Hempfield (3)

DT West (1)

Carlisle (3)

Easton (11)

Cumberland Valley (3)

State College (6)

CB West (1)

Ok Hempfield, I'm doubting you again. Harsh stuff here from train considering they made me look quite silly last week. I'll say this, Hempfield  was district champs back in 2010 and then the next week fell to 19th. That's a classic story for district 3 champs. It's hard to repeat the feat twice in a row on Hershey. They go deep, I like all 6 of their top guys a bunch and at the very least they return 5 of those 6 for next year. Brady, their senior leader and #1 man, should be fun to watch individually, he just missed top 50 last year. This is Yurchak's second straight year here at Hershey as well.

DT West is an interesting team. They have the potential to sneak in as a top 5 team if things break right. But I have some question marks here. I love Sappey, I think he's proven that he is consistent in big meets. But the pack behind him has struggled at the big meets. This is a young team that reminds me a lot of 2011 WCH. They are a year away from doing something special. Heck they even have the missing soph in Alsanksy like WCH with Barchet. Here's the hope for West. They ran close by that big 4 of Henderson's that everyone is excited about at Chesmonts and then have a better 5 (and their 6 and 7 are maybe the best in the state on the right day). I think Charlie Barton (the senior) and maybe Ryan Barton have big days but ultimately they miss top 10. They have redemption and motivation, but I'm worried about their youth. Next year big things. Also keep in mind this whole tier likely ends up within about 10 points of one another so anything could happen.

Carlisle seems to be peaking at the right time. Brehm and co had a big day at districts and suddenly find themselves doing their best racing at the perfect time. They were 6th a year ago at states and I think they have had least as good of a team this year. Brehm is a sleeper pick for individual champ, we saw his peak on the track. He's saved something every meet. Wisner is coming on very strong and DeAngelo is no joke at 3. Problem is I think the state field is deeper this year than last. I think Carlisle could easily end up a top 7 team again, but I worry about their depth through 4 and 5. Dyche has been sneaky good admittedly. I think I've talked myself into putting them higher in the last few minutes ... 

Easton is the sleeper of all sleepers. I love this team for this state weekend. Abert is the favorite for the state title and Lapsansky is very good. I could see him as a top 15 guy at states which means they are basically scoring 3 guys at states. They have proven themselves at PTXC and Paul Short. Plus Sherman had a fantastic race at districts. If he can find a way to around 60th, that top 3 is very formidable. Koch is younger and I don't think he's ever competed here at states, but his performance at districts shows he can rise to the moment. I also think Grunwald is going to bounce back big time. Perk Valley 2008 was 4th and they were built almost exactly like these guys. The knock is they absolutely need killer finishes from Abert and Lapsansky, a lot of pressure. If either of those two has disaster strike they can fall quite quickly. But I think this sleeper could be a nightmare for unsuspecting teams. See what I did there?

I still think CV was the best team in D3 this year. They peak for the state meet and are usually underwhelming at districts. If everything clicks this team is killer through 4 with a couple solid options at 5. The key will be Soliman. Is he the sub 16 guy from Paul Short or the guy who was farther back at Districts and Carlisle? This is still a young group behind Wasko (who has been money this year) but they are experienced, they were here a year ago and learned a lot. I believe in the program and the talent combination. 

State College was underwhelming at pre states and Carlisle. I wrote them off. I started to doubt Milligan a bit as well, even though I was high on him at the start of the summer. Well I have been forced into a change of heart in recent weeks. This team was top 5 last year and return key pieces including Milligan and Feffer. Beyerle and Wing are solid top 5 pieces and I know how to spell Heatwole now (I hope anyway). Milligan had his best race of the year at state last year. It was probably his break out performance and a big reason they stayed in the top 5 and beat out CRN. So what's not to like? Well they are built a lot like last year's SC team that got 4th. But just like Carlisle I just think it's a better year overall. I'm not sure a medalist and a few almost top 50 guys is gonna be quite enough. They can get a big boost from Heatwole, Beyerle or Wing breaking out for a top 50-60 finish. I'm high on Feffer for a big day and Milligan for a medal.

Ah CB West. I didn't even think they'd get this far a week ago but now it seems so silly to have doubted them. This team had a much better top 4 than I expected. They are young and inexperienced and all that good stuff us old people like to bring up. I'm not sure at the start of the year they had this good of a team honestly, so if the focus was more shortsighted on districts that could cost them here. It's worth noting that at Belmont, another hilly course, they ran great at Briarwood and beat out LaSalle. Have they improved as much as LaSalle? Hard to say. Does Mass have one more prime time performance left? Hard to say. I think Davies has a big day and I'm also a big believer in Fortna. Fortna could end up in the medals. And Teagan Fortna could have a nice day as well, he's had a very impress stretch run into the top 5. Honestly this team's success likely depends on their sophomores. They are super talented, but how will they handle the Hershey hills and the state pressure? Hard to say.

One final thought, Brian Iatarola? Hard to say.

Tier 2 (5-7)

CRN (1)

WCH (1)

Mt Lebo (7)

Sure CRN didn't end up wowing anyone at districts, but they still had a really nice day. That top was very solid and Arita didn't fail to deliver, even on a course that doesn't play to his strengths. They will go far if Griswold steps up into the top 50 and the pack is in that 80ish slot overall. That's very possible for a team that peaks very well at states. Remember what they did last year to flip the script on Stoga? Couldn't they do that to a team like CB West this year? The main question/concern I have for them is in their 6-7. There is a bit of a drop off there so that top 5 needs to be on their game. But there are lots of teams with that issue or worse (they don't have a quality 4 or 5). I'm trusting them to show up when it counts as they have done so many times before. 7th is an average year for these guys.

Henderson has gained a ton of momentum in the past two days. They went from "no way they can make states with that 5" to "can they win states with that top 4?" 

I can't say I'm surprised this happened (I actually predicted it in my 2014 yearly predictions from December. Go back and look, it happened. I actually got an incredible amount right considering it was 90% jokes ...)

But let's temper the excitement a bit. Despite their excellent running in recent weeks, they still have questions at 5-6-7. Only Knapp ran this course the past two years and their key 4 is just a frosh. Their top 3 is quite good, but is it as good as NA? O'Hara? And it's pretty even with Stoga when you look at it closely. 

But all that being said ... This team has a very realistic shot at top 5 teams. I think Knapp could have a really big day, maybe even sneak in the top 10. I also see Swart running clutch. I think he's in the top 40-50 at least. Barchet can be there too, although he seems a bit better on faster courses. Smucker could be like Reiny frosh year end up right around 50th. That's 4 in the top 50. And I think that Berkman (or whoever ends up their 5) could potential sneak some spots. It's a smaller meet and he won't be quite as buried as districts. If he can find a way to squeeze out top 50-60 in team scoring they have a really nice day. I trust Coach K and the West Chester Blue Devils, but I'm not expecting anything like NP 2011 from these guys. Although really at this point would it surprise us at all? RJJL thoughts?

I'm not off the Lebo bandwagon just yet kids! I'm pretty unphased by WPIALs (which I'll admit may be niave) but I think back on past Lebo teams and I feel they have all bounced back big time. I talked about this with Evan on our podcast (that didnt record properly btw, I'm really pissed off about it and very sorry to Evan) and we discussed how this team was comparable in ability to the 2011 team that was top 4 at states. That squad had a better top 3 than these guys, but this team may be better through 5,6 and 7. I'm thinking Baun and Gunz both challenge for medals and Stone has a big day. Harris and Brandenstein ran real well at pre states an even though Bryce is just a frosh he excelled on this course at Pre States. I think it will be tricky to navigate past the top D1 teams, but I haven't forgotten how this team looked at Pre States or even Tri States. I'm waving off WPIALs for better or worse. 

Tier 1b

LaSalle

Conestoga

I dont think either of these guys is taking a state title this year. I think both are just a piece or two away.

For LaSalle, this pack is amazing. A tight spread is one of my favorite things in cross country and it's why I fell in love with the 2009 LaSalle team and picked them for the win. The similarities between those two teams strikes me every day. 2009 LaSalle was 3rd so that's my best guess for 2014 LaSalle. Here's the thing, This team has rotated through their top guys so much I can't even realistically predict who finishes where at states. But I think it's a safe bet they have 5 guys between like 35-65. The way they improve on this tier is they push those 5 up to 20-50 like 2013 NA or ... 2008 LaSalle! Princavalle has been a beast on the hills this year. Mitchell had a big run at Briarwood. Goebel has shined more than once. Patrick Grant was one of my early sleepers for a top 30 finish. They have so many guys who could have a big day, the potential gets me excited. But who will be the one to do it? That's the biggest question.

As for Stoga, I don't think it's a secret that they were my midseason pick for a state title. The development of Nelson and Murray to pair with Cooper and Cruikshank made a great pack behind Marston. And Marston has taken another step forward from his 9th place finish last year. 

They have had their ups and downs since then, but I still like this teams depth. I think Nelson can end up in the medals on the right day. I expect Cooper to bounce back like he did last year for a big state meet. Marston may win the whole thing. Seriously. This team also has 7 guys who have had moments this year and they have 6 guys who got their first ever taste of states a year ago and now are back and hungry for more. They were 7th last year with an inexperienced crew facing their first big stage moment. Now all those guys are back and ready to roll.

I think I just talked myself back into picking them for state champs ... So why the doubt? They need to get the top 3 going to compete with NA and OH. Murray is the one guy who didn't compete here last year and is the one guy who this team may need most. I'm high on these guys, I think they will be tops in D1 and that's usually pretty darn good at states. Just can't quite pull the trigger on them for the W.

Tier 1a

O'Hara

NA

This might be a touch too high for OH but I still believe in their squad. The first time I did a mock state meet (about two weeks ago in my somewhat complicated and extensive excel file) the results have me a tie between NA and OH. That top three for O'Hara has the potential to be really good and Kevin James could win the whole darn thing! And I don't say that about everyone ...

I'm thinking these guys place 3 in the top 30 at states with gets you in the hunt at the very least. Last year that was almost enough to beat NA, and NA was deeper through 5 last year then they are this year no doubt (5 in the top 45ish last year for NA, don't think that's happening this year for anybody, that's crazy depth).  The key for me is Donovan and Pastore. Can they do what James and Pastore did last year and finish 60thish? I think it's gonna take something like 110 points to win this year so you get a solid showing at 4-5 behind that top 3, you are right there for the state championship.

Ultimately, I got NA as the favorite. They have their own killer top 3 that should put 3 in the top 30-40. Seel has been in the top 50 each of the past two years and I think his training indicates he could be due for a huge race at states. Joe Stupak has secretly become one of the best 4s in the state and when things finish up he might be the very best 4 out of all the teams. Then NA has 2-3 guys who can step in and fill the 5 slot. I don't see a clear weakness here. You gotta hope that somebody falters out front, but those 3 seniors have been solid here and killed it last year. I think this will be Seel's 4th state meet and he had a couple pre states on this course. Kid probably sees the place in his dreams (or maybe nightmares).

Here's the only thing I will say against them. They ran pre states. And for whatever reason that seems to not work out well for teams. But O'Hara ran Pre states too. Soo upset alert?

Dramatic sigh. I'm gonna need some second opinions.