AAA
Due to some very unfortunate injuries, it looks like the AAA team title will come down to Parkland and Easton. Easton is the favorites here thanks to some killer front running with Colin Abert and Kevin Lapsansky leading the charge. Easton has proven themselves consistently on the big stage by running fantastic races at PTXC and Paul Short (at both meets they beat Parkland fairly soundly). The Gregory duo of Sherman and Grunwald has been a very stead 3-4 punch and Koch has handled the pressure of being #5 pretty well. If they run to their ability, they should win a district title.
But you can’t count out Parkland just yet. Easton has one of the best 1-2 punches in the state, but their front running is not quite as valuable in a less top heavy field like the District 11 championships. Parkland has a strong top three in Geiger, Newman and Kyvelos and any of those 3 can be their #1 at the right day. Plus they are deeper than Easton, with strong pieces down past their 7th man. Morgan has been rapidly improving at the 4 spot and Kaleycik and Bergen are the best 5-6 in the district.
However, Easton is likely taking 1-2 in this race, a huge advantage. Plus Sherman and Grunwald have shown they are more than capable of hanging tough with Parkland’s pack. That gives Easton solid wiggle room at the 5 spot just in case. The key to a Parkland upset is a big day from their low sticks. They could use a 4-7-8 type split at top 3 if they are going to try and neutralize Easton’s front running.
With Freedom expected to be without Lopez or Zeigler at Districts, the door is open for Liberty to grab 3rd place. But don’t sleep on Freedom. Aplaugh has looked very strong in recent meets and Quigley is a stud. That top 2 could potentially still carry them by Liberty. If Zeigler and/or Lopez tries to run through their injuries at Districts, that makes Freedom even more capable of third. I doubt we will see them compete, but if they do toe the line, Freedom could end up with 4 individual state qualifiers. For now, however, this seems to be Liberty’s chance to shine. Fitch is a great leader out front and Masemore and George have proven to be solid pieces behind him.
Individually, this is Colin Abert’s gold. I’m thinking, if he doesn’t already have the course record, he will set out to smash it at Districts. Abert has never been a guy worried about “saving it for next time”, so I think he will be trying to make a statement with his win. Behind him, Lapsansky has looked strong enough to get 2nd. I think he is the second best runner in the field, but he may get stuck in the middle of Abert and the chase pack and get caught late if he has expended too much energy running solo. The pack of Quigley, Fitch, Lamm, Slavin, Aplaugh and the Parkland boys should work together very well. It’s going to be a mad dash to the finish to sort out the top 10.
Here are my predictions.
1 Easton 46
2 Parkland 56
3 Liberty
4 Freedom
1 Abert Easton
2 Lapsansky Easton
3 Quigley Freedom
4 Fitch Liberty
5 Lamm Whitehall
6 Slavin Pleasant Valley
7 Geiger Parkland
8 Aplaugh Freedom
9 Newman Parkland
10 Sherman Easton
11 Kyvelos Parkland
12 Grunwald Easton
13 Morgan Parkland
14 Masemore Liberty
15 Tocket Bangor
16 Kaleycik Parkland
17 Ramdeo Stroudsburg
18 Bergen Parkland (6)
19 George Liberty
20 Samuels Pleasant Valley
21 Koch Easton
22 Sell Bangor
23 Harris Pocono Montain
24 Welkie Pottsville
25 Landenberg Emmaus
AA
I’ve got back and forth on a number of things for District 11 AA. I’m high on the Allentown CC boys to make it through to states, but I have a pretty small sample size to back it up. Jim Thorpe looked really good in their last meet: their top 4 were very impressive. That catapulted them up to the number 1 spot in my team rankings. Plus their front runner, Condloy, came very close to being my pick to win districts over defending champ Kyle Gonoude. Both of these guys are studs and have a good shot at the top 10 for AA states (for the record the top 10 for AA states is a huge toss up right now that I won’t really fully start thinking about until after districts is complete). Joe Espinal from Wilson was one of my early season sleepers and he appears to be rounding into shape these past couple weeks. Heller from Northwestern Lehigh, Li from Moravian Academy and the 2-3 for Jim Thorpe (Bucior and Saxon) are all top 5 threats as well. The sleeper may be Brad Kreider from Allentown. He and his teammates have a little bit more recovery time than the rest of the field because their league meet was on Tuesday rather than Thursday.
As I’ve mentioned I see Jim Thorpe taking the title here and Allentown Central Catholic grabbing the other spot to states. I’m a little nervous about Thorpe’s depth at the 5 spot, but their top 4 are much better than their competition. Allentown looked solid against the bigger teams at their league meet and has a nice history at districts. They have a solid pack behind their frontrunner Kreider with Vaughn, Gribb and Miller all threats to do some damage. These two teams seem to be a step above their competition.
The race for third may be the most exciting part of the meet (and on the right day any of these teams could break through for a top 2 spot). Saucon Valley had a killer pack their last race where they became Colonial League champs. Bernstein and Kyra led the way out front. If those two can become true front runners and crack the top 10-15 spots, Saucon Valley could be game changers. The team they beat, Notre Dame GP has had some solid success at districts in the past. They were a tad underwhelming at their league meet but Koons and Fogel were state level guys a year ago who I believe will bounce back at Districts and give this team a strong 1-2 punch.
But the team that I’m really excited to watch is North Schuykill. These guys are really young: their entire top 7 is all freshmen and sophomores. They had a fantastic league performance led by McCormick, who looks like a state qualifier as an individual. Sokoloski also had a great showing at Leagues. Districts time is a real test for young teams, and these guys may be a year or two away from being real title contenders, however, this youthful group may be the most likely team to pull off the upset. Keep an eye on this squad for the next couple years, they are young and they have talent continuing to come in (I believe they had a killer showing in the middle school race). Maybe the next Brendan Shearn is lurking on this roster.
1 Jim Thorpe 79
2 Allentown CC 91
3 North Schuylkill
4 Notre Dame GP
5 Saucon Valley
1 Gonoude Salisbury
2 Condloy Jim Thorpe
3 Espinal Wilson
4 Kreider Allentown CC
5 Bucior Jim Thorpe
6 Heller Northwestern Lehigh
7 Saxon Jim Thorpe
8 Li Moravian Academy
9 Kemery Northern Lehigh
10 Vaughn Allentown CC
11 Koons Notre Dame GP
12 Blacketter Lehighton
13 Svetik Palmerton
14 Gribb Allentown CC
15 McCormick North Schuylkill
16 Saxon Jim Thorpe
17 Eibeck Penn Argyl
18 Sokoloski North Schuylkill
19 Fogel Notre Dame GP
20 Bernstein Saucon Valley
21 Kyra Saucon Valley
22 Greenawalt Blue Mountain
23 Miller Allentown CC
24 Fisher Leighton
25 Shaffer Bethlehem Catholic
A
In the single A race there is only 1 team spot to states on the line with a slew of schools looking to chase it down. The defending state champs, Minersville, will have their hands full against up and coming squads Schuylkill Haven and Marian Catholic. Marian Catholic has a stunning 5 freshman in their top 5 with the 6th being a sophomore. Despite their youth, they have some of the best depth in the district which is why they were able to edge out their district rivals at Leagues. Despite the depth, the title will likely swing on the strength of each schools top three runners. For Haven it will be Brannen, Pothering and James. For Minersville it will be Yutko, Dibiase and Rushanan who all ran excellent here a year ago. Marian Catholic will count on their trio of freshman Srinivasan, Pulaski, and Roberts. Mahanoy’s top three is worth mentioning here as well, Bahrey, Striesel and Derr may all end up in the top 10 on race day.
Brannen from Haven has asserted himself as a title favorite this season. He’s one of the top returners from a year ago including Yutko (last year’s champ from Minersville) and Bahrey from Mahanoy. Bahrey has a strong training partner in Striesel and both guys will be hoping for individual spots to states. Srinivasan is a stud frosh for Marian Catholic, but he is a bit inexperienced on the big stage.
Ultimately, the team and individual race are pretty up in the air. At least five teams have realistic ambitions about qualifying for states, but only one can go. Weatherly is the sleeper squad here. They’ve got a nice pack of guys led by Brett Kelly out front. I’ll be rooting for this team as my girlfriend’s sister helped coach this squad in recent years and would like to see her hard work pay off. I think Haven edges out the defending champs in Minersville and the up and comers of Marian Catholic in a dog fight to the finish. Brannen’s individual championship may be the difference in a tightly contested race.
1 Schuylkill Haven 69
2 Minersville 81
3 Marian Catholic 71
4 Weatherly
5 Mahanoy
1 Brannen Schuylkill Haven
2 Bahrey Mahanoy
3 Srinivasan Marian Catholic
4 Striesel Mahanoy
5 Pothering Schuylkill Haven
6 Yutko Minersville
7 Pulaski Marian Catholic
8 Derr Mahanoy
9 Dibiase Minersville
10 Kelly Weatherly
11 Roberts Marian Catholic
12 James Schuylkill Haven
13 Rushannon Nativity
14 Rushanan Minersville
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