Jarrett's Picks:
1. C. Abert, Easton (11)
2. K. James, OHara (12)
3. A. Marston, Conestoga (1)
4. C. Comber, Horsham (1)
5. M. McGoey, NA (7)
6. P. Power, Spring Ford (1)
7. J. Brophy, CB East (1)
8. A. Gebhart, New Oxford (3)
9. S. Webb, Pennsbury (1)
10. Z. Brehm, Carlisle (3)
11. H. Wharrey, NA (7)
12. A. Knapp, WCH (1)
13. B. Foust, Altoona (6)
14. Z. Seiger, Red Land (3)
15. K. Lapsansky, Easton (11)
16. R. James, OH (12)
17. H. Sappey, DTW (1)
18. J. Susalla, Plum (7)
19. A. Demko, Hershey (3)
20. J. Heinauer, NH (7)
21. E. Diestelow, WCE (1)
22. B. Arita, CRN (1)
23. A. Milligan, SC (6)
24. N. Henderson, McCaskey (3)
25. I. Baun, Mt Lebo (7)
26. R. Fortna, CB West (1)
27. S. Seel, NA (7)
28. E. Linderman, Canon Mac (7)
29. R. Morro, OH (12)
30. D. Quigley, Freedom (11)
31. A. Hanna, CR South (1)
32. S. Weidner, LD (3)
33. B. Delaney, MT (3)
34. J. Perlman, LM (1)
35. Q. Wasko, CV (3)
36. K. Nelson, Conestoga (1)
37. T. Gunzenhauser, Mt Lebanon (7)
38. J. Carmody, Rustin (1)
39. C. McMenamin, Souderton (1)
40. E. Goebel, LaSalle (12)
41. J. Cooper, Conestoga (1)
42. D. Digiacomo, Twin Valley (3)
43. R. Mitchell, LaSalle (12)
44. E. Graca, Fox Chapel (7)
45. D. Brady, Hempfield (3)
46. W. Sponaugle, Hersey (3)
47. G. Barchet, WCH (1)
48. I. Davies, CBW (1)
49. N. Wolk, Peters (7)
50. C. Cassell, LD (3)
So narrowing this group down to 50 was a nightmare, so many talented guys fighting for just a few top spots and lots of variables going into consideration, especially at 40+. I think this is Abert's race to lose, the only question might end up being can he run faster than Molino and Tony Russell. I'm not too frightened of the D3 curse, I think that Geb, Brehm and Seiger have proven they can do this double quite well. Probably a bit too much upperclassmen bias going on here, but experience is key.
etrain's Picks:
1. A. Marston, Conestoga (1)
2. J. Brophy, CB East (1)
3. Z. Brehm, Carlisle (3)
4. C. Abert, Easton (11)
5. K. James, OH (12)
6. S. Webb, Pennsbury (1)
7. C. Comber, HH (1)
8. J. Susalla, Plum (7)
9. A. Knapp, WCH (1)
10. Z. Seiger, Red Land (3)
11. P. Power, Spring Ford (1)
12. H. Sappey, DTW (1)
13. H. Wharrey, NA (7)
14. K. Lapsansky, Easton (11)
15. M. McGoey, NA (7)
16. A. Hanna, CR South (1)
17. A. Milligan, SC (6)
18. T. Gunzenhauser, Mt Lebo (7)
19. B. Arita, CR North (1)
20. D. Quigley, Freedom (11)
21. R. James, OH (12)
22. B. Foust, Altoona (6)
23. C. McMenamin, Souderton (1)
24. A. Gebhart, New Oxford (3)
25. K. Nelson, Conestoga (1)
26. K. Shea, LD (3)
27. M. Kolor, SV (7)
28. D. Wilkinson, Red Land (3)
29. E. Diestelow, WCE (1)
30. J. MaGuire, CR South (1)
31. S. Seel, NA (7)
32. E. Kennedy, Kiski (7)
33. R. Morro, OH (12)
34. Y. Soliman, CV (3)
35. S. Princavalle, LaSalle (12)
36. R. Fortna, CB West (1)
37. D. Eddinger, Boyertown (1)
38. W. Swart, WCH (1)
39. I. Baun, Mt Lebo (7)
40. J. Heinauer, NH (7)
41. S. Collins, NP (1)
42. N. Feffer, SC (6)
43. A. Maxwell, Kennent (1)
44. Q. Wasko, CV (3)
45. J. Piscano, St. Joe's (12)
46. P. Grant, LaSalle (12)
47. D. Stroh, Altoona (6)
48. M. Wisner, Carlisle (3)
49. H. Geiger, Parkland (11)
50. E. Linderman, Canon Mac (1)
Threw down some bold predictions here just to keep things interesting. I think this is a chance for a lot of young guns to shine. Feffer is a big sleeper, he could surprise with a top 30 finish even. I looked for guys with momentum and guys with upside. There's always a few lurking at district meets, back in the pack, that turn it on when it counts.
Abert is probably going to win, but why not have some fun and keep it interesting. Marston killed the hills here last year and was sneaky impressive at McQuaid. I could see Brehm somehow winning the whole thing. He's super talented and I'd bet he has been saving all year for this one moment.
The rest of my predictions are really just hunches. Hard to explain intuition. Even harder to explain if it ends up all wrong.
Guys we are upset to leave out ... Too many to try ....
I think that etrain's list will be closer to the actual results than Jarett's. Sure the picks at the top are unlikely but overall I think etrain's list is better.
ReplyDeleteDon't know what etrain was smoking when he put the list together. Maybe he was just trying to tick off Abert and motivate him. It's gonna take more than a cold day for him to drop to 4th place.
ReplyDeleteis kelly posting D1 jv results on his website again?
ReplyDeleteYes, but not for a while. It takes a while to compile that many hand times.
DeleteAbert hasn't had a bad race all season long. Maybe states is where he is going to falter or even worse, foot locker regonals. that would suck
ReplyDeleteThis is like playing two March Madness pools. The Jarrett one is his real picks and the 2nd is just to cover for upsets. I don't like it, you only get one prediction.
ReplyDeleteI agree. Not really a fan of it.
DeleteYeah, you should just keep the second one (it has me ranked higher...)
DeleteHaha I'd say my real picks are probably split somewhere down the middle, closer to etrain than Jarrett with some exceptions ... I'm not really interested in winning the prediction contest as much as getting people talking, but if you'd like we can exclude my first set of picks from being prediction contest eligible haha
Deletei like the second one as well. you have some people ranked higher than i'd expect though
DeleteI know this is supposed to be the big public states week, but no review of independent states? There were actually some pretty interesting results there.
ReplyDeleteI previewed it and then discussed results on the day 4 recap a few posts down from this one. Admittedly it's not as in depth of a discussion, but it had at least district level coverage so that was something.
DeleteKnapp, Sappey and Diestelow have been going head to head all season without much separation between them. A split of 20 positions between Knapp and Diestelow is a bit much to accept. Those three compete with each other and feed off of each other. Knapp's and Diestelow's experience on the Hershey course will benefit all 3 of them.
ReplyDeleteIt's been Knapp and Sappey. Diestelow has been a few seconds behind them all year.
DeleteHow many medals/places are there at AAA states?
ReplyDeleteI put this on Forrest's blog so I thought I'd throw it on here.
ReplyDeleteI really wanna pick Brophy to win. I just feel like there's something there that could really surprise. He's not too flashy, but not too underrated. But at the end of the day when you have a 14:55 guy with 4 years of experience on the state course who has placed 12th and 5th the past two championships, you got to think he's the sure-fire answer. With that logic, I've got to take Abert. Although, if Brophy doesn't win then I'll put him at 4th. As we go down the list I think we're going to see a good amount of D3 names around that 8-14 area. They've all been running really close all season mixing it up meet after meet. As we wrap up the medaling I'm seeing a couple D1 guys like Sappey, Arita, and Diestelow grab a couple of the last spots. Surprisingly, it's pretty similar to Forrest's list.
In terms of how I see the race going out, Abert will go out hard and not relent. James, Comber, and Power will probably hang a little further back as they will lead the front pack of Marston, Brehm, McGoey, and Brophy. James will try to make up ground during the Aloha hills and get close to Abert. Yet, Abert's strength is too much and he'll finish up the job the last mile. As for the rest of the pack, Comber will be in 3rd for most of the race until his hard first half of the race hits him and he is caught by part of the pack the last half mile. Webb tries to hang early but can't crack that top 10. Wharrey gains momentum off of the Aloha hills and grabs that 9th place spot.
1. Abert
2. K. James
3. Marston
4. Brophy
5. McGoey
6. Comber
7. Power
8. Brehm
9. Wharrey
10. Lapansky
11. Sieger
12. Gebhart
13. Webb
14. Demko
15. Milligan
16. Knapp
17. R. James
18.Foust
19. Sappey
20. Arita
21. Heinauer
22. Susalla
23. Diestelow
24. Henderson
25. Linderman
-RunFaster