District 10 Predictions

AAA

District 10 AAA is one of the smallest fields of district week, but it should have some thrilling team implications. In the past, they have run this race concurrently with the AA race. This doesn’t change things too much, but now the three teams fighting for one state spot (McDowell, Correy and Cathedral Prep) will not have quite as clear of a picture as to how the points stack up mid race. It also means that the runners sprinting to the line for state qualifying spots won’t be completely sure where the cut off is. But overall it should make times faster and the race less wide open, so it’s a smart move in my opinion, especially if the weather is bad and the meet needs to be moved along.

 

The AAA team battle should be exciting because it is essentially a tri meet with each team involved having roughly equal chance of qualifying for states. Cathedral Prep showcased a killer top 4 this past weekend, but didn’t have the fire power at #5 to get past McDowell and their front running. McDowell’s Ryan Zimmerman leads the McDowell boys who will try to repeat as champs. Fordyce was a strong #2 for McDowell this past weekend, but will need to continue to improve to hold of the CP pack and to hold off the Corry boys. Corry’s Whiteley is probably co-favorite with Zimmerman for individual gold and he will try to lead the battle tested Corry boys to the upset. Derry and Curtis have been strong at 3-4, but Corry too will need a lift from the 5 spot.

 

I think McDowell’s depth and experience as the defending champs allows them to grind out the win in a tight, down to the wire battle. This thing is likely going to be decided by a couple seconds and maybe even a 6 man tie breaker (or two) and in that instance McDowell has the edge. I also believe Zimmerman will beat out Whiteley with Fordyce taking third, making McDowell’s 1-2 punch the best in the district as well. With depth and front running, it’s hard to be toppled.

 

1       McDowell        38

2       Corry           39

3       Cathedral Prep  46

 

1       Zimmerman       McDowell

2       Whiteley        Corry

3       Fordyce McDowell

4       Derry           Corry

5       Stark           Cathedral Prep

6       Curtis          Corry

7       Klein           Cathedral Prep

8       Fritzke         Cathedral Prep

9       Haight          Cathedral Prep

10      Nichilo         McDowell

 

AA

Grove City has very quietly become a scary force in the AA state title race. Not only are Benka and Budnik both top 10 threats for states, but Pyle, Depew and McConnell have been fantastic at the 3-4-5 spots. To beat York Suburban, teams will need to have 5 quality runners as well as strong front running to match Wilt and Mears. Sounds pretty darn similar to Grove City’s resume. Grove City will be hoping to make a statement before the state meet (lolz) and will try to break into the low 20s for points.

 

Apparently, this year the AA race will only send 1 team and 5 individuals to states, bad news for every team not named Grove City. Once I saw this I kind of gave up on the mess for second place (lots of solid teams, no clue how to distinguish the group) and just tossed 5 or so teams into the mix and picked based off my gut rather than numbers. Harbor Creek has the best front running behind Mandel and Babo, but some other teams like Hickory, Meadville and General McClane have shown nice depth.

It’s amazing only 5 individuals get to come out of this district. It’s an incredibly talented group. Out front Andrew Maxwell has been on a roll. He’s fresh off an upset victory over Benka and Budnik and looking to carry that momentum to the district meet. I think Benka will get some revenge, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Maxwell crosses the line first. I think Grove City skipped out on Tri States to save up to have a real chance at a state title. That could mean they hold back a bit at Districts or it could mean an excited and rested group blasts the field with 5 in the top 10-12. That remains to be.

 

Christian Babo, the stud freshman from Harbor Creek, has a chance to show just how good he is this weekend at districts. He has multiple big wins this year but hasn’t proven himself against the big three of this district (Benka, Budnik and Maxwell). I’m not putting any big expectations on the freshman, but I’d be surprised to see him outside the top 5. Gealy from Wilmington and Lehotsky from Fort Lebouf are other solid contenders for a top 5 finish and the individual spots to states.

 

1       Grove City      32

2       Harbor Creek

3       Fort Lebouf

4       General McLane

5       Meadville

6       Hickory

 

1       Benka           Grove City

2       Maxwell Slippery Rock

3       Budnik          Grove City

4       Babo            Harbor Creek

5       Gealey          Wilmington

6       Lehotsky        Fort Lebouf

7       Pyle            Grove City

8       Mandel  Harbor Creek

9       Parker          General McLane

10      DePew           Grove City

11      McConnell       Grove City

12      Danvers Franklin

13      McKnight        Grove City (6)

14      Rose            Meadville

15      Boyd            Hickory

 

A

Sebastian Curtin from Mercyhurst Prep is the defending champion and is in the running for best runner you never heard of status. He was third at A states last year and somehow I have failed to bring his name up in the “guys who could beat Griffin Molino on the right day” discussions. He has run some fantastic races this year at Gettysburg and in Ohio and is looking to lead his team back to the state meet. Helping him out will be Noah Curtin, his younger brother.

 

But Mercyhurst, second last year, will have their hands full just trying to get back to the state meet. Apparently, after sending 3 teams a year ago, District 10 A is now down to just two teams which means one of the following three very good teams is left at home: Seneca, Mercyhurst and Saegertown. Yikes. The A team title race is still pretty wide open, meaning that any one of these three teams could not only compete for a district title, but could probably compete for a state title as well. This is why those wild card ideas that people have proposed would be a nice touch.

 

All three teams have at least a solid top 4, with Saegertown’s strength being mainly through 3. The 5 spot is a bit of a wild card at this point, as it often can be with small schools. This race was one of the tougher ones to call and I think this will be another incredibly close battle during district week (I know it feels like I say this every post, but seriously guys this is going to be an epic district week). Ultimately, I think Seneca is going to win. They have a strong top 2 in the Meyers boys and then a nice 3-4 in Nadolny and Jarema. They have proven they can win a variety of big time invites already this year which gives me the confidence to pick them to win.

 

The second spot is very tricky. Mercyhurst has the big time front runner in Sebastian Curtin and they have an on the rise stud in Noah Curtin, but Saegertown’s top 3 of Barclay, Amy and Fleisher are strong, experienced runners. Saegertown is the defending district and state champions and has improved consistently each week this year. Johnston is a solid #4 with potential (his brother was a state medalist). Although I think Mercyhurst is a tiny bit better on paper, I think Saegertown will be the second team through to states. When it doubt, I will usually put my money on the defending champs.

 

Individually, I think Curtin will maintain the title belt. Dan Wilcko from Fairview is his number one competitor in my eyes and has a chance to have a very strong stretch run to his season (he is one of the top 10 or so returners from last year’s state meet). Barclay and Phoenix Meyers have team titles in mind and that should bring out strong performances. Hanz Wentz and Harrison Kline are also sleeper picks for a big day. Tingley from Lakeview is another deeper sleeper to consider. For the record this is probably my second favorite district of names (Phoenix Meyers is fantastic, but probably not beating Slam Dunkley).

 

If I was a cross country announcer I would love my job.

 

1       Seneca          73

2       Saegertown      77

3       Mercyhurst      76

 

1       S. Curtin       Mercyhurst

2       Wilcko          Fairview

3       Barclay         Saegertown

4       P. Myers        Seneca

5       Wentz           Maplewood

6       Kline           Cochranton

7       N. Curtin       Mercyhurst

8       Amy             Saegertown

9       D. Myers        Seneca

10      Tingley         Lakeview

11      Fleisher        Saegertown

12      Shuttleworth    Fairview

13      Nadolny Seneca

14      Mudger  Cochranton

15      Drozynski       Lakeview

16      Jarema          Seneca

17      Olson           North East

18      Watts           North East

19      Zimmerman       Mercyhurst

20      Cancilla        Mercyhurst