States Week: The Favorites

Individually, I believe there is a clear favorite at each level of the state. You may have another guy in mind to win the title, but I think Vegas odds would make these 3 heavy favorites at Hershey.

Here are the resumes of these 3 studs and what obstacles they will face on their quest for Gold.

Colin Abert, Easton
Abert became just the 5th man to break 15 on Lehigh, a truly legendary achievement. That puts him in a group with: A two time state an regional champ, a XC and track state champ who also won Millrose, a Footlocker finalist and state record holder, and the #1 runner on the best team in state history and the entire country in 2006.

Wow. That's a pretty darn fast group of dudes.

But history is working against Abert in a variety of ways. For starters, district 11 has not produced a state champion in AAA boys this millennium. I'm not positive on this, but the stat may carry over to track as well. The only guy I can remember who has been close is Sam Luff (2nd in 2004 XC and 2nd in the 3200 outdoors). If Abert grabs gold it will be an historic day for the Lehigh Valley.

Abert is looking to become the first AAA runner to finish tops in his class 3 straight years at states since 2006 champ Jason Weller and 2005 champ Craig Miller (who won the title three years in a row).

Abert has never broken 9:20 for 3200m. If he wins this year, he will be just the second Senior to win states without a 3200m PR under 9:20 this millennium (the other? Brad Miles who time trailed 9:16 a week or two after the state meet). I'm talking well before Penntrack here, probably back before many of you were born. Probably before Colin Abert was born.

Lastly, if Abert wins states, he will pull off the district and states double, a surprisingly rare feat. The other two do it since 2006: Brad Miles and Tony Russell (twice). All 3 times, the individual also won a regional championship. So if Abert wins, he may end up Footlocker Regional champ.

Dom Hockenbury is looking to join a slew of recent Juniors as district champ. Shearn, Beveridge and Dunkleburger have all done it dating back to 2005. He dominated last years outdoor 3200m and was runner up at states last year to Deluca. His early season 16:10 puts him in elite company on this course and I believe he is only behind Shearn, Todaro and Jaskowak for AA marks.

The piece of history he is fighting? The AA champ has also been the district 3 champ in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012. And don't look now but the guy who won the D3 championship this year is pretty darn good ....

Griffin Molino is the first ever defending champ in A. He's tied for the fastest ever 1600m man to contest a A state championship. He's the fastest A man on the Hershey course. He is the only A guy to make a national championship. He has run 15:18 and 9:19.

Now some of those stats are kinda cheap (there have only been two A state title races contested) but I challenge you to find a guy, a 4:12/9:19/15:18 guy, all prior to his a Senior year state championships. On the small school level, you just don't see marks like these very often. Chris Spooner is the last guy I can think off with similar marks at this point in his career (with a small about to Ryan Smathers).

Spooner won the AA championship as a junior, but was stunned on the way to the line as a senior by Dave Mock. Could history repeat itself?

All 3 of these guys run the same way, they get after it from the gun and push the pace. If conditions are good, we could see some historic performances. The current course record is in serious jeopardy and I think Abert has the ability to run somewhere in the 15:30s on the right day.

Weather will always be a factor, but pace shouldn't be. I'd be very surprised to see Abert, Hockenbury or Molino choosing to sit back and me others control the pace. That's just not their style.

(For the record the weather looks really nice for cross country next weekend)

So with that in mind, I'm predicting the course record will be broken at least 2x on Saturday with a realistic chance at 3 different winners breaking 15:45 and double digit runners breaking 16 overall.

But Hershey and the state championships are a mysterious beast, anything can happen if things click or misfortune strikes.

There are favorites, but that's why we run the races.