State Performance List - Initial Thoughts

by Jarrett Felix

EDIT as of 8:41 (pretty much right after I made my initial post), Apparently they just produced a new performance list with updated entry info. That can be found here. That changes a few things for etrain's below post. The edits are in red.

So the Performance List out! There were surprises of all kinds on the performance list (including the fact that 12 actually equals 13, this joke isn't as funny now that some of those 13s changed to 14s). My posting schedule is also now up (on the playground for those interested in that sort of thing). That will give you an idea of what to expect the previews and what not. But, because I had time and I'm a generous kinda guy (mostly the I had time thing), I decided to run through some of my initial thoughts when reviewing the entries for the 2016 PTFCA State Championships.

First of all, have to just throw out a big shout out to Penntrack/PTFCA or whoever put this performance list together because it's pretty great. It's only really missing heat breakdowns, but it's got all the seed times (although some of those seem odd and I'll get to that) and it's got names for all the relays. That will be clutch in determining who is and isn't going hot in certain relays. I decided to do this kind of event by event, first look style. I threw in some key statistics at the top. I also added the names of runners/teams who hit the SQG but were not accepted into states. I did this to hopefully give some type of small honor to the kids who worked their butt-off to hit those times and deserved some congratulations. I know this isn't a state bid, but hopefully any kids reading now that we at the blog are pumped about what they accomplished and believe it is worth celebrating.

This is only my third time going through it so you will get a bit of my raw emotion coming through but mostly you will get some prepared, coherent ideas. Next year, remind me to do a live blog of my first time reading through the performance list That could be fun.

4x800m
13 Teams Accepted (12 was initial cut off)
Cut Off Time: 8:12.83
Notable scratches: Seneca Valley
Teams with the SQG beneath the cutoff (8:19.66): Neshaminy (8:13.43), DT East (8:14.07), Pennsbury (8:14.14), Perkiomen Valley (8:14.92), Upper Dublin (8:15.08)

Basically all the big names are here, including GFS who has decided to go after both relays and no individuals. No real surprises (although I wasn't expecting GFS to run admittedly), although Pennridge's Tucker Desko (1:54 and fastest runner on paper) is not listed on the roster. Also North Penn will apparently not have Dante Watson, a sub 2 leg on paper. CRN also only listed 4 runners so they would be the one team with a definite line-up.

The big mystery now I suppose, is what will CB East do? Is Brophy going to try the 4x8-3k-DMR triple? That could be fun to watch, but painful to participate in. They have a pretty good squad without him for the 4x8 (and perhaps DMR) so he's not a lock for all three in my opinion. Either way, should be fun.

Mile
20 Individuals Accepted (20 was initial cut off)
Cut off Time: 4:29.08
Notable scratches: Mike Kolor, Nick Dahl, Jake Brophy, Liam Conway, Dominic Hockenbury, Domenic Peretta, Alex Milligan, Rock Fortna
Runners with the SQG beneath the cutoff: Henry Sappey (likely scratch), Evan Addison (likely scratch), Joe Maguire, Eric Kennedy, Rusty Kujdych, James Abrahams, Joe Angelina (maybe scratch), Sean Brown, Ryan James (likely scratch), Khayre Ali, Joseph Cardie, Logan Caruso

Not incredibly surprised to see the majority of these scratches (I predicted a decent amount of them, not to pat myself on the back), but seeing Tucker Desko here in the mile was definitely a surprise. To be fair, I think it's an awesome opportunity and an intriguing decision (especially considering Kolor and Dahl dropped out).

A few of my fellow writers have pointed out that the second heat has some nice sleeper talent and could produce some medalists. There's lots of guys with incentives to keep things quick because they have such good 2-mile/XC ability (Kent Hall, Jeff Kirshenbaum), but also some dynamite finishers like Sean Sullivan and Jack DiCintio. I wonder if Ben Bumgarner's 4:26 seed was intentional to get him into the slower heat? Because according to my list his 4:23.15 from Spire would convert to 4:24.75 and put him just ahead of Brody Beiler for spot 10 in the fast heat. Just something I was curious about.

Overall, a pretty good field but also the most heavily scratched one of the bunch. Timing wise, just seems to make a lot of sense, plus Hoey's excellence in the event may have scared a few guys off.

800m
24 Individuals Accepted (24 was initial cut off)
Cut Off Time: 2:00.15*
Notable Scratches: Tucker Desko, Grayson Hepp, Dennis Manyeah, Sean Conway (not a scratch now), Josh Hoey, Rock Fortna, Donovan Meyers, Jake Brophy
Runners with the SQG beneath the cutoff: none

Believe it or not the first thing I noticed was the cut off time, marked at 2:00.15 (which is about the SQG). Now before I say this, I want to note that I have no dog in this fight and I'm not trying to stir up trouble, just merely trying to point something out. I don't think there is any foul play or anything, just perhaps a seeding error from someone involved or a piece of info that I am missing.

So the last two times in are 2:00.11 and 2:00.15, both from the TSTCA Meet #2 which I believe was at Edinboro. That's a 234 meter track or something crazy like that so the PTFCA (wrongly in my opinion) counts it as an oversized track. You can see this by noting that Kolor's time and Bailey's time were not adjusted. But Bove and Thrush got their times knocked down by .6. So I'm just confused why and if somebody could shed some light (they decided to count me two as a flat track for some reason, it was run at a different location, I don't know for sure) I'd appreciate it.

It's also worth noting this doesn't make a huge difference, but it does affect a few runners. Runners between the currently cut off and the adjusted time include six guys, four of which most likely would have been scratches. Personally, I think if some of those runners in between want to get in, they should probably be added barring an explanation here. I definitely do not want any kids kicked out in either direction. I'm a huge proponent of getting as many deserved kids in as possible (and the west has been screwed enough as is). You can still get along with 26 entered athletes.

Anyway, sorry for that rambling and as said, I'm not trying to make waves, just pointing something out I saw for the sake of the athletes they are in between the cut offs and nothing more.

Looking back at the actual entries, the field looks fairly unsurprising, although I'm a little sad Sean Conway isn't participating for Neshaminy as I thought he was a serious medal contender (hey, look at that! He's in it now!). Also kind of intrigued that Ahmir Gordon opted for the open 4 over the open 8. I'm very glad that we got everybody with the SQG into this event, though. That was probably the best part of looking through these acceptances.

3,000m
13 (now 14) Accepted Entries (12 was the initial cut off)
Cut Off Time: 8:56.13
Notable scratches: Dominic Hockenbury (not a scratch anymore! yay!), Nick Dahl, Tucker Desko, Joe Maguire
Runners with the SQG below the cut off: Rob Morro (likely scratch), Joe Previdi, Eddie Goebel, Matt D'Aquila

(Just ignore like all of this, almost all of it assumed Hock wasn't gonna run and now he is!)
No Hockenbury is the #1 surprise from this entire performance list. It could be an error (Hock only ran a 3200 this year so maybe there was some confusion, in fact I'm guessing there was some confusion), but it also could mean he is injured, resting or training through the indoor season. Clearly the kid was in great shape so it's a bit of a bummer to not see him, however, in the grand scheme of things I'm sure he will have plenty of other opportunities to do big things when healthy. Overall, an indoor state championship may end up lower on the priority list.

Other than that, we got most of our dream field, including some clutch runs from the TSTCA that will make the race very interesting. I'm just saying, let's not necessarily give this one to Brophy just yet. There are some really talented guys with fresh legs who will be gunning for him and Brophy has a lot on his plate to worry about. Interesting double for Conway here as well as he is doing the 800m and the 3k if I read correctly. I wonder if that double has ever been attempted in the history of the state championship? I can't remember it being done recently, but you never know (turns out it won't be done this year either! They got the Conway's confused in the open 8 originally).

DMR
13 (14) Accepted Entries (12 was the initial cut off)
Cut Off Time: 10:41.42*
Notable Scratches: None, nobody scratched
Teams with the SQG below the cut off: Cheltenham, Seneca Valley (they got in now!), Bonner, Abington, HG Prep, Winchester Thurston, CR North, Bishop Shanahan

Pretty crazy to see that many teams left off the DMR list, but what are you going to do? There's only one heat and they couldn't slam 21 teams into one heat. Maybe 15 (I think that's been done), but anything more than that would be a problem. As was speculated, DT West will not be running the Hoey brothers who are both listed for the 4x4, but will instead run Barton and Sappey on the double (still a really good team).

A few teams will try the 3k-DMR double. DT West with Sappey, CB East with Brophy and Neshaminy with Kujdych. CR South and Joe Maguire decided they did not want to join that club. This race is going to be really fun because just about every team involved has at least one key leg doubling. In fact, unless we see a near full on "B" sqaud in either the DMR or the 4x8, I think only West Chester Henderson will be heading into this race completely fresh. Very interesting for the 3 time state champions in the event.

One other really weird thing. Did the flat track times get adjusted by 4 full seconds? It looks that way to me. According to everything that I've seen it's only supposed to be 2.5. Now this doesn't actually effect any of the cut offs (Seneca Valley and HG Prep were the top banked teams left out and they weren't faster than Unionville's time with a 2.5 second adjustment, but 4 seconds seems incredibly big compared to the other events. It's a pointless discussion I suppose, but still seems really weird.

Also, I don't know which meets the Henderson and State College times came from so would anybody be able to let me know? Both teams qualify regardless, but I'm just curious for the sake of making predictions. If SC ran 10:35 just a few days before running their 7:51, that makes this double very, very interesting. And Henderson is looming as a title favorite, especially if they ran down closer to 10:30 this season.

They just added Seneca Valley, which I'm definitely pumped about because they deserved to be in, but I'm pretty sure they jumped Cheltenham in the standings to earn this spot (and if we are doing crazy 4 second conversions they also jumped Bonner). Probably should have a 15 team field in my opinion.

Overall, in case anyone was wondering there are 7 teams running both relays at the state championship, meaning that, in theory, there are 7 teams that could have made it into the state meet under the old format. 7 full teams. That's a pretty big change.

Shout out to whoever those 7 teams were! Just know, you guys are on the etrain all-star team.

Cheers,
Train