Show Me The Money: Indoor Edition

By: Garrett Zatlin

For those of you who have actually clicked and read the "Contributor" section, you'll know that I'm very interested in economics and the stock market. I think it's fascinating that we can gage the performance of a company when given so many different pieces of information. So I figured, why not do this for runners? The process is surprisingly similar...

I actually already did a post like this last spring (which you can find here) and it got a solid amount of attention. So why not do it again? With the NCAA now at the unofficial half-way point of the season (maybe slightly over) it's time to break down all the information we have and analyze it.

Of course, I'll have to include some Wall Street terminology. Here are the three quick indicators that are typically used on a stock (and now runners) when analyzing performance...

• Bullish- There is a lot of confidence in the stock and we should look forward to future success
• Bearish- There are many doubts about the stock and the outlook for success is negative.
• Neutral- The stock not swinging one way or another. It is simply stuck at a point of no decision.

BULLISH: The 800 Field
If you have read any of the weekend reviews, you know that the 800 field this year is insane. The average 800 cutoff time for nationals is typically around 1:48.4 to 1:48.5. The cutoff time now is already at 1:48.35 and a grand total of 42 runners have broken the 1:50 barrier. The record for the most runners under 1:50 in an indoor season came in 2011-2012 when a grand total of 72 runners clocked a time of 1:49.99 or faster*. That record could potentially fall during the upcoming month with many of the fastest meets in the nation taking place.

What makes this whole thing even better is that there isn't a true favorite for the title. In my mind, it's between a World Champ qualifier (Murphy)**, the 1k record holder (Kidder), one of the fastest 800 runners ever (Brazier), and an under-the-radar stud (Walker). One of these four is going to win a national title, but it's just a matter of who.

Yet, maybe what makes this field even more interesting is the potential behind those top guys. Carlton Orange and Isaiah Harris are a pair of freshmen that could get All-American, but have been left out of the spotlight thanks to Donavan Brazier. What about Eliud Rutto? He was one of the fastest 800 runners in the nation two years ago, and now he's an afterthought***. Other guys like Capwell and Arroyo have proven themselves against the biggest names in the nation, but haven't had much attention this season.

Before this section gets too long, my deep sleeper to get an All-American spot is Daniel Kuhn of Indiana.

*According to all available TFRRS results
**Murphy hasn't actually qualified for the NCAA 800 yet. If he doesn't pursue the 800 for the rest of the season (even though he will), he'll end up running the mile at nationals.
***Rutto redshirted both last winter and spring seasons

BEARISH: Milers
The mile this year has been a bit underwhelming (so far). It wasn't until January 21st when we had our first sub-4 mile by Patrick Corona. The day after Corona ran his sub-4 mile, Koech ran a sub-4 of his own. The problem? Both of those times were given altitude conversions and weren't actually run under four minutes. Fans didn't get to see their first actual sub-4 mile until the 29th of January when multiple people broke the 4 minute barrier.

What's even more odd is that iconic meets like Penn State National and the Meyo Invite failed to put anyone under four minutes despite being known for their fast mile fields. At this point in the season, only 14 men have broken 4 minutes in the mile.

The weaker mile field is also opening up opportunities to guys we typically wouldn't see. Futsum Zienasellassie is the second fastest miler in the nation right now with a 3:56 (thanks to a very generous altitude conversion). Half-mile star Clayton Murphy may stop pursuing the 800 (the event that got him into the World Championships) in favor for the mile after he clocked a 3:57 this past weekend.

Don't get me wrong, there is still a lot of time for this mile field to improve. We still have to see what guys like Jordy Williamsz, Chad Noelle, and Julian Oakley can run. There are also many guys hovering around the 4 minute mark that are eager to take advantage of a lighter mile field. However, with Cheserek likely to run the mile at nationals and teams needing their aces for the DMR, the mile field at NCAA's may not be as deep as it usually is.

BULLISH: The New Guys- PA Alumni Freshmen
Right now, there is a very good chance that PA won't send an alum to nationals. However, there are a lot of positive signs from the guys that just entered the NCAA that we should be excited about.

Remember some guy named John Lewis? The Clemson Tiger has faced some very fast fields and has done quite well against them by going under 1:50 twice this season (he holds 1:49.39 SB). His 800 counterpart, Alek Sauer, also recorded a 1:49 split in the DMR (split recorded by Dylan Jaklitsch). Then there's Elias Graca who has improved his 800 throughout the season and holds a season best of 1:51. Clearly the 800 is not lacking in talent.

Then there is the 3k where Casey Comber just ran 8:18 and Colin Abert just ran 8:13. It looks like those two could be the stars of their respective programs in the future, maybe as soon as next year. Keep in mind that Casey Comber has now redshirted his cross country and indoor seasons, meaning that we get to see him race for four more years (rather than just three). Let's also not forget about Sam Webb who has been killing it on his own by dropping times like 4:12 and 8:24.

Right now, PA alumni haven't really had an impact on the national scene and we are patiently waiting for them to do just that (looking at you Ryan Gil). However, there is a lot of potential and excitement in these news guys and it might not be long until they are contending for All-American spots...or more.

BEARISH: Matt McClintock & Thomas Joyce
This past fall Matt McClintock defeated some of the best names in the nation and ended his season with a ranking of 13th in our ET Top 50 Rankings. Thomas Joyce, on the other hand, found more success on the track where he had a miraculous breakout season last spring and was 7-0 at one point. His PR's indicated that he would be a true contender this year.

Unfortunately, neither of those men have done anything too exciting lately. McClintock has run two 3k's so far and has run 8:22 and 8:21 in both of those races. The man has 8:03 and 13:53 PR's so clearly this is not his best. He placed 4th and 7th in those races against guys that he has easily beaten before. I understand that XC fitness doesn't necessarily translate to fast track times, but I thought McClintock would at least be in the conversation of possible nationals qualifiers.

As for Thomas Joyce things have not been good. Joyce has run two races so far this season and they've both been poor showings. His first race was a 3k and it ended with him running an 8:38 to place 6th. Later, he would run his mile in 4:21 for 15th overall. This is obviously far from what Joyce is capable of and it makes me wonder if he's sick or injured. What happened to the 3:39 (1500) guy we all used to know and love?

NEUTRAL: Indiana University
Indiana is a very talented team. They haven't really been a powerhouse, but they produce very solid runners that can get wins. Matthew Schwartzer and Daniel Kuhn are leading the middle and long distance runners on their team with times such as 1:48 (Kuhn) and 7:59 (Schwartzer). Other guys like Kyle Duvall and Rorey Hunter have been grinding out tough race after tough race and currently hold times that are a bit outside the cutoff of making nationals. Long story short, Indiana is a very talented team.

However, their racing schedule has me worried. Some of these guys have run in six different meets and have doubled in said meets. Owen Skeete and Kyle Duvall are leading their team in the number of races run this season with a grand total of eight. Most NCAA runners don't hit that many races in an entire season, let alone two months. Eventually, burnout and exhaustion become a factor and I have to wonder what the goal is for racing so often.

The Hoosiers have been running well, there's no doubt about that. They get credit for having an insane amount of depth and runners that can do well at nearly every distance. Unfortunately, at this point, there's a pretty solid chance that none of these guys go to nationals despite having the talent to do it (including the DMR). After racing that hard, you can only improve so much. And with the cutoff times becoming faster and faster, I don't see anyone from Indiana making the nationals field*.

*With the exception of Daniel Kuhn who is more 400/800 based and isn't affected as much by the number of races

BULLISH: Boston University 
If someone asked me who the best up-and-coming program was, I would tell them Boston U. The Terriers have been making some noise this season and it's not just from one single runner.

Let's start at the 800 which is led by junior Ethan Homan. Homan currently sits as the 17th fastest 800 runner in the nation with a time of 1:48.35. Although Homan does focus more on the middle distances,
 it's important to note that he has a 2:22 1k PR to his name.

The mile is probably where the best runner on the team lies. Alex Seal has been tearing apart the track recently with two 4:01 performances. The catch? This kid is a TRUE FRESHMAN. The Australian runner has done some amazing things at Boston U. and it would be great to see him go under four minutes this season. Watch out for Seal to be a future NCAA champion.

Finally, Kevin Thomas and Alec Olson have taken over the duties at the longer distances. Thomas has run a respectable 8:03 3k while Olson has thrown down a 14:15 5k.

It's not going to be easy, but there is a very real possibility that Boston U. ends this season with a sub-4 miler, a sub-8 3k runner, and a sub-14 5k runner. This team is one of the most underrated teams in the NCAA and deserves your respect.

BEARISH: Someone Upsetting Cheserek
Not really sure if I need to explain this one, but Cheserek will simply not lose this season. After reading the Flotrack article about Cheserek nearly running 3:58 in a workout, I couldn't really imagine someone beating him. We saw last indoors season that he was unstoppable and that he eased up at the line to give his teammate Eric Jenkins the gold in the 3k during winter*.

At nationals, Cheserek will most likely be given the task of maximizing points for his Oregon teammates. His best chance of doing that would be the same thing he did last year (3k, mile, DMR). The competition this year doesn't seem to be any more difficult than what he had to face last year. It also doesn't hurt that he has a sub-4 miler on the 1200 leg to help that DMR stay in contention. If Cheserek is close enough, he will close for the win.

The possibility is still there. Cheserek could be the victim of an upset. However, the chances of that happening in my eyes are slim to none.

*Some will argue that he didn't let up but that's a different story

BULLISH: Transfers
It's not easy being a transfer. If you're a transfer you move to a completely different area and receive completely new coaches, teammates, training methods, schedules, climates etc. However, those issues don't seem to be a problem for the guys who switched programs this year.

Mississippi has to be the biggest benefactor of the transfer switches. Ryan Manahan and Craig Engels have been dominating the 800 field and both are qualified for nationals as of right now (they will most likely stay qualified). Ole Miss also has to be happy about receiving Ryan Walling and MJ Erb who have run 8:00 and 8:01 in the 3k this year. How on earth did Mississippi get these recruits?

NC State won't complain either as they took in Luis Vargas who has now become one of the fastest 3k runners in the nation with a banked track conversion time of 7:48.81 (for the nation lead). It also doesn't hurt that Vargas has a 13:49 5k this season which puts him at 5th in the nation.

If we look deeper into the 3k, other individuals like Colin Leibold (Stanford) and Dylan Lafond (Illinois) have also had solid marks of their own running 7:59 and 8:00 respectively.

The mile is no different with Adam Palamer enjoying success at Syracuse after he ran a 3:58 and Ryan Gil (Oregon) grabbing a huge PR with a time of 4:02 a couple weekends back.

NEUTRAL: DMR's
The DMR is always the trickiest event to gage mainly because you never know who's running it. That's why I have the DMR's as neutral. There are so many questions as to who will run the relay and right now we don't have those answers.

Here are just some of those questions...

• Will McGorty even be on his relay at all? 
• Are we going to see Fisher on there? 
• What about Georgetown? They have four guys under four, so which of those four will be on the DMR? 
• Will Bile still be the anchor? 
• What about Cheserek's triple? Will the DMR be a part of his plans? 
• Or will he go for the mile/3k/5k triple and leave the DMR to fend for themselves? 
• The same could be said about Chad Noelle and his relay. Will Chad go for the open mile and double on the anchor or will he focus on just the DMR after already securing the 1500 title last spring? 
• Is Villanova going to run a D-Med? They could put something very quick together...

All of these are questions that we wont have answered for a very long time. The only thing I feel confident about is Penn State's DMR. They will be completely fresh except for Kidder who will be doubling back from the 800.