State Predictions: Mile

by Jarrett Felix

Mile

Heat 1:

Sean Sullivan, Bonner

Tristan Forsythe, Winchester Thurston

Jeff Kirshenbaum, Methacton

Kent Hall, Unionville

Jack DiCintio, Wyomissing

Ben Bumgarner, Waynesburg Central

PJ Murray, Conestoga

Patrick Donahue, Holy Ghost Prep

Ryan Barton, DT West

Ryan Paradise, Emmaus

My goodness, what an intriguing “slow” heat. The smart money says there are usually a few borderline medal contenders lurking in the slower heats and I’d say more often than not the winner of the slow heat finds themselves wearing bling when all is said and done. This race should be no different. There are lots of relatively inexperienced commodities in the fast heat, while this section has some experienced, mature veterans.

The two names that jump out the most are Kent Hall and Jeff Kirshenbaum, both of whom threw down fantastic cross country seasons and then soloed their 4:26ish seed times to land in the state final. Kirshenbaum was a bit of a surprise to see on this list, considering he ran a jaw-dropping 9:19 for a full two miles and seemed like a possible title contender in the 3,000 if fresh. Although I think he would have been better served in that event, it’s hard to deny his talent. As for Hall, he ran his 4:26 all the way back in December, fresh off his breakthrough national qualifying race, and has been relatively quiet in the opens since. He helped his Unionville team get into states in the DMR and mixed things up well in the 3k with Nate Henderson at Kutztown, but other than that it’s been a quiet 2016. But again, the talent just speaks volumes here.

Both of those guys may look to make this race fast considering their kicks are a bit less proven than the sub 2 minute 800 guys in this group (there are at least 4 sub 2 guys in the open in this heat). Patrick Donahue of HG Prep and Jack DiCintio of Wyomissing have both had their fair share of instances where they pushed the pace and even sophomore Tristan Forsythe has not been timid to get out fast. Those factors point to not just one, but perhaps multiple medalists coming from this heat. But who will survive the madness?

Jack DiCintio looked like one of the sharpest miler in the state back in December when he defeated Cooper Leslie and Colin Wills among others at Burdette, but since that moment he’s been MIA, including a couple scratches from marquee invitationals. I haven’t seen the results from State College yet so perhaps he ran there, but otherwise, I’m nervous about his health. If he’s 100% and relatively fit, watch out for his kick at the end of heat one.

If DiCintio can’t steal it, I’ll be watching Sean Sullivan of Bonner and Ryan Barton of DT West. Sullivan has proven himself on the big stage a couple times already, running a clutch 1200 leg last year and adding a huge open 800m at outdoor states. He won’t be afraid of this stage. He also has 1:55 speed to pair with his continuously developing strength. Meanwhile, Barton has come on quickly after a relatively slow start to his season at Ocean Breeze. He split sub 2 on West’s PA #1 DMR and then added a 4:28 win at the TFCAofGP Meet of Champions. Barton barely snuck into this field, but now that he’s in, a guy with a 4:18 PR and team title hopes cannot be overlooked.

Ben Bumgarner is an intriguing sleeper. He’s run 4:23 for 1600m this year (a time that would plop him in the fast heat according to my math) and he ran his best XC race of his career at states this fall, meaning he will be ready for this arena. We haven’t seen him much against in-state competition, but he’s stacked up nicely against the schools out west.

Heat 2:

Jaxson Hoey, DT West

Liam Galligan, Springfield Delco

Tucker Desko, Pennridge

Josh Hoey, DT West

Colin Wills, Malvern Prep

Noah Falasco, Upper Merion

Connor McMenamin, Souderton

Cooper Leslie, Camp Hill

Matt Scarpill, CB South

Brody Beiler, Selinsgrove

Jaxson Hoey enters the state championship with a seed time a full 7 seconds ahead of his next closest competitor. And that doesn’t even count his recent Millrose games performance where the senior knocked his season best down another second to 4:11 (he’s now the second fastest PA indoor miler of all time). That gives him an 8 second seed advantage, one of the largest in state history I’d imagine. He’s also the defending state champion from outdoors and the silver medalist from this fall’s XC championships.

The smart money says not to over think this one. Hoey has clearly been the state’s top miler and finished comfortably as PA’s top Millrose participant. Over the past four seasons, PA’s top Millrose milers have been Sam Ritz, Tony Russell, Jack Huemmler and Ned Willig. Those runners have also been the last four state champions in the event. He’s got the kick to win in a slower race, but the strength to take things in a faster affair. Plus, as has been mentioned, he’s proven he can hold his own tactically with his performances at the state and national level, making the USA Junior outdoor final last spring.

But all the same, nothing is guaranteed in track and field. And this group will not hand this thing to Jaxson. Perhaps his biggest challenger is another 800m speedster with good strength: Pennridge’s Tucker Desko. Desko is fresh off a win at the TFCAofGP Meet of Champions and, I believe, is undefeated individually this season under 3,000m. He’s run 1:54 for a runaway victory at Kevin Dare and clocked an 8:51 3k at Lehigh, giving him clear ability on both spectrums. Desko scratched out of Pennridge’s very good 4x8 to focus on this event, so he clearly think he’s got a shot at doing something big. And I think that’s a great idea.

Two of Jaxson’s biggest challengers to the title will come from very familiar sources. One of those is his younger brother, Josh Hoey, who will enter the meet with a 4:19 PR. Josh is one of the few runners in this field with a victory over Jaxson in any event and has the advantage of training with the 4:11 miler. Plus, Josh’s state resume to date is pretty impressive for a kid who is only half way through his sophomore year. In “clutch meets”, Josh has made the state final at 1600m (and medaled), won the frosh mile at nationals, finished 3^rd at XC states and then led DT West to a regional championship in NY. Not too shabby. And don’t forget Josh’s last race: an 800m victory over reigning XC state champion Jake Brophy. If I’m not mistaken, that’s Brophy’s only in state loss as a senior.

The other familiar face will be Colin Wills of Malvern Prep, the Hoey brother’s former teammate. The Malvern Prep stand out finished just a tick away from Josh at Ocean Breeze (where both guys ran their seed times) and then added a very impressive 800m win at TFCAofGP Meet of Champions. He’s just a few ticks behind where Billy McDevitt was this time last year, setting Wills up nicely to grab a medal just like McDevitt. But Wills has proven plenty in his own right, without comparing him to McDevitt. Wills was near medalist in this race last year and finished right at the front of the slower section in 2015. This will be his third straight year racing the state final in the mile.

Amazingly, I’ve managed to go this long without mentioning the #2 seed in the championships, Springfield Delco’s Liam Galligan. The Junior has run 4:19 this year as well as 8:51 for 3k and beat both Josh Hoey and Colin Wills at Ocean Breeze. Galligan is contesting his second straight state final in the mile and was a medalist during XC, running clutch at the state meet for the second straight year.

Cooper Leslie is one of the more consistent milers in this group and a very established senior. He threw down marks around 4:20 last outdoors for the mile and sub 9:40 for 3200m. Plus he clocked under 2 minutes for 800m at State College. He’s got some big wins on his resume and has consistently improved since the start of the season.

The rest of the fast heat should be a bit of a mystery. Noah Falasco exploded with a 5 second PR and then followed it up with an additional 8 second drop in two meets at Lehigh. It gives me some flash backs to guys like Cristian Sanders (2 flat to 1:53 in like two weeks) and Austin Cooper (2 flat to like 1:56? his junior year outdoor) who both also ran for Upper Merion, Can he keep up this momentum heading into states or will the magic run out? And how about Connor McMenamin? The Souderton junior has proven himself extensively in cross country as well as at 3200m (qualified for states last year out of D1), but this winter, he turned his gaze on the shorter distance and saw results. He entered the TFCAofGP MoCs as the top seed and delivered with a 4:22 and top five finish. This will be his 4^th state championship and that could provide the extra experience he needs to produce his first state medal. Matt Scarpill of CB South first burst onto the radar at this very track his freshman season, anchoring the CB South DMR to an impressive finish in the medals. Now, two years later, he has continued to blossom, entering the state meet with sub 4:20 potential. The most recent CB South state milers (Tom Mallon, Austin Gregor and Joey Waddington) have all placed in the top 10 at states.

Then, finally, there’s Brody Beiler. He crushed a mile at this track to start his season, followed it up with an admirable battle against the State College duo of Feffer and Milligan at Kevin Dare and then blasted a low 9 minute 3k. He’s from District 4, not exactly a hub for famous runners, but the District is no stranger to the state championship. Chris Spooner of Lewisburg won a state title in this very event just over a decade ago.

Ultimately, this race should be really fun to watch with a nice mix of established names and up and coming talent. I really feel like a couple medal winners will likely come from that first heat, especially if the fast heat gets a little tactical (who wants to take on the pace?). Although I like Desko’s chances of dropping a strong PR and making this thing interesting, I think it’s hard to pick against Hoey in this spot. After this top two, it’s pretty wide open. That’s what makes this thing so interesting to me. Who else can become a 4:15-4:17 type on race day? Here are my picks for the medals ….

1.      Jaxson Hoey 4:14.17

2.      Tucker Desko 4:15.35

3.      Josh Hoey 4:17.89

4.      Colin Wills 4:18.01

5.      Liam Galligan 4:18.33

6.      Cooper Leslie 4:19.89

7.      Sean Sullivan 4:22.20

8.      Jeff Kirshenbaum 4:22.75