By Alex Fox
A few weeks ago, the discussion was between Aidan Tooker and Jaxson Hoey in deciding who would claim the coveted Millrose Mile crown. Now, the full field is out and things have changed. Sure, Tooker and Hoey are still two of the big names in the race, but one of them winning is anything but guaranteed. Despite the uncertainty that this loaded field gives those who are trying to predict the outcome, one thing seemssure: this race will be one that should not be missed.
The Favorites:
Isaac Cortes: Here’s an entrant that no one is really talking about, and I’m not really sure why. Sure, he’s from the west coast and isn’t always popping up in the results over here, but he’s entered in Millrose. Moreover, he’s run 1:51 and 4:06/4:08 (1600/full mile). His PRs alone should have everyone talking about him potentially taking this race. Moreover, he has the advantage of training outside under the balmy California sun. Sure, he hasn’t raced much this season, but that could be an advantage or disadvantage. All the other favorites have been racing a ton this season (Tooker will be coming off 5 days rest), and Cortes should be fresh. One could argue he’s not in the swing of racing, but his only race of this season was a 1:18 600. Cortes has the best speed in this field, and if he’s in the lead pack with 600 to go, look for him to take off.
Conor Lundy: It’s hard to get a good read on Conor Lundy. His season has sort of been a mixed bag of results. Working in his favor is the fact he is a NYS champion at the mile, and has run 4:08 this season. Moreover, based on his feature workout on Flotrack (http://www.flotrack.org/video/922381-workout-wednesday-conor-lundy-fordham-prep-antietam-workout), Lundy is in shape and has some serious closing speed; this could be vital should the race come down to a 400 meter kick. On the flip side, Lundy has lost to both Hoey and Tooker head to head this season. Not every race has played out for Lundy this season, but the talent for him to take a W is undoubtedly there.
Jaxson Hoey: After the graduation of Tony Russell and then Sam Ritz, the crown of “best track runner in PA” was left open; I believe Jaxson Hoey has successfully stepped into this role. Given what he’s already done with this season and his career, I don’t really need to sell you readers on his credentials. He’s a strong miler with 1:53 speed. If he’s on, there isn’t a race he can’t compete in.
Aidan Tooker: I have already written about Tooker in this race, and if you’re curious about my analysis of his chances in this race, I suggest looking there. Since that piece, Tooker beat both Lundy and Hoey head to head in a 1k at the Armory. However, last weekend, Tooker took third in a mile in Boston, although the loss could be chalked up to stiff competition (Jack Salisbury and Thomas Radcliffe). Tooker has been phenomenal all season, but he raced both Sunday and Monday, and run a lot this season. When Aidan Tooker is fresh and on, he wins, but will he have enough in the tank to defeat another stacked field.
The Sleepers:
Nick Dahl: Man, Nick Dahl can’t get any love. Despite the fact he came in third at NBON running 9:01 for a full two miles, most don’t consider Dahl a contender for the 3k state title, with Dominic Hockenbury and Jake Brophy standing in his way. Then Dahl splits a 4:14 anchor leg for his Germantown Friends DMR, but is still overlooked as a serious threat to Jaxson Hoey for the mile crown at states. As a result, there is much speculation that Dahl will be banished to the DMR (where he could still lose to DTW) and forfeit his chances in an individual race. As a result, I think Dahl comes out in this race with a chip on his shoulder. This may be his chance for individual glory this season, and he’s going to want to prove something to the rest of the state (and to the Etrain writers who doubt him in our group chat). He may not win, but look for him to mix it up and drop a serious time.
Eion Nohilly: When I first saw Nohilly in the entries, I sort of dismissed him based on my own bias, as I saw Nohilly as a strict steepler. However, Nohilly has proven with several races this season that he is a more dynamic racer than I initially gave him credit for: Nohilly showed off his newly discovered wheels with an impressive 2:28 1k last week. Moreover, Nohilly proved his mile chops with a 4:17 performance this earlier this season. He may not be a household name, but as he’s shown, he’s not one to be overlooked.
Noah Affolder: Affolder certainly appears to be the future of New York track running, and this may be his opportunity to burst onto the national stage. In his only race this season, Affolder knocked off the like of Lundy, Nohilly, All American Eric Van Der Els, and others, winning at The Emblem Health Hispanic Games in 4:15. Affolder also has a 1:56 to his name, which he ran as a sophomore, not to mention a couple of state records. Affolder will be a fresh face with fresh legs, and is certainly one to watch for the future.
Predictions:
As it has happened in years past, this race will probably come down to a kick, starting around 800 to go. Last year, James Burke won as part of his torrent indoor seasoning, splitting 2:10 and 2:01.0, including a 58 400 meters. Two years ago, Tony Russell took the race out in a faster 2:06, but it was Luke Gavigan closing in around 57 who claimed victory. This race should be no different, with the combination of mile ability for the honest pace of the first 800-1000 meters, and closing speed necessary for the kick to the finish. With this in mind, this is how I see the race playing out:
1) Cortes: 4:09.45
2) Lundy: 4:10.11
3) Tooker: 4:10.39
4) Hoey: 4:10.90
5) Affolder: 4:12.56
Isaac Cortes is simply the best combination of miler and speed in this race. His PR of 1:51.44 shows that he has enough speed to shake off the rust of having only raced once this indoor season and kick away from the field. Lundy and Tooker will come top 3, I’m not really sure of the order though. Both are very talented and in great shape, a high finish is inevitable. This is my best guess based on the specifics of the order. Unfortunately for Hoey, he is in a loaded field who are all racing at the top of their game. This isn’t to say he doesn’t have the talent to beat these guys come outdoor (which I think could and will happen), but Lundy and Tooker are both really in the zone for indoor. Hoey will catch up with their fitness as Tooker looks to steeple and constant racing catches up with both of them. Look for Jaxson to get his revenge at Penn Relays. But for now, this is my best guess as how the Millrose Mile will play out. Luckily for me, I have no money riding on this race, as I have been wrong in the past.
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