State Predictions: 3,000m

by Jarrett Felix

3,000m

Heat 1

Jake Brophy, CB East

Dominic Hockenbury, Lake Lehman

Jeff Kirshenbaum, Methacton

Nick Wolk, Peters Township

Rusty Kujdych, Neshaminy

Nathan Henderson, JP McCaskey

Liam Galligan, Springfield Delco

Marc Migliozzi, North Allegheny

Will Loevner, Winchester Thurston

Rob Moser, East

Liam Conway, Owen J Roberts

Casey Conboy, Baldwin

Henry Sappey, DTown West

Seth Slavin, Pleasant Valley

I’ve said I think the 800m will be the race of the day, and I stand by that, but I think this race will be the fastest. The state meet record, 8:22.65, is one of the best there is and belongs to Manheim Township’s historic star Craig Miller. But that record could be in jeopardy when these runners hit the track this Sunday. The back-to-back AAA XC State Champion will take on the back-to-back AA XC State Champion in one of the greatest match ups in state 3,000 history. I believe this is the first time in the last decade plus that the AA and AAA state champions have faced off at indoor states. The race will also feature a current sub 9 3200m runner for the first time in state history. The 1^st, 4^th, 5^th, 6^th, 9^th, and 10^th place finishers from this year’s AAA XC Championships will all be participating in this one as well as state medalists Kujdych, Loevner and Galligan. 4 of PA’s top 5 finishers from Footlocker Regionals, including the top 3, will be contesting this event as well. So simply put, it’s a nice field.

I honestly feel like Hockenbury is super fit and I can’t help but imagine he will push the pace and try to break Jake Brophy’s kick (don’t forget Hock was outkicked by McGoey at this meet last year and he will be out for some vengeance). He soloed a 9:12 3200m at the Armory, lapping the entire field. 9:12 is one of the fastest pre state 3200ms I can ever remember. But Brophy is fit too. He ran that 8:36.71 at Lehigh earlier this year which is up there with Paul Springer on the fastest flat track 3ks in state history. And, of course, Brophy is in the conversation for best XC runner of the last decade and the fastest junior in state history for 3200m. However, he will possibly be doubling off the 4x8.

8:22.65 is almost exactly 67 seconds for 400m, i.e. 4:28 pace, i.e. 8:56 pace. That’s really, really quick. But if anybody can do this, I think it’s this duo.

But this will undoubtedly be more than just a two man affair. Jeff Kirshenbaum has run 9:29 and 9:19 for 2 miles in addition to a sub 8:50 flat track 3k. Kirsh has shown flashes of title potential in his long distance races this year, but he opted for the mile-3k double, which will make things a bit trickier. There have been successful doubles in these two events including Ben Furcht in 2009 (5^th ish- 2^nd) and Jason Weller in 2007 (2^nd-1^st). Tony Russell was a lap or two away from pulling it off as a junior in 2013, but couldn’t quite hold on over the final turns. Would have really enjoyed watching him mix it up fresh, but he’s still a contender. Liam Galligan is trying the same double for Springfield DELCO. Galligan has been a stud at 3k, but he will be in the hunt for a top 3 medal in the mile and that will suck a lot out of him.

Nick Wolk and Nathan Henderson had oddly parallel seasons in cross country. Both runners were the clear top dogs in their district and produced some dominant performances en route to a top five finish at states, where the two finished side by side in Hershey. Besides the Hoeys and Brophy, no one has really been able to defeat these guys, especially when they are fresh. Now both enter the state meet with an 8:47 seed and a ton of potential against their biggest competition of the season. Henderson, now a junior, is fearless and tough. He ran 9:08 last outdoors as just a sophomore in the deepest 3200m in state history. That was one spot and just a couple seconds behind Jake Brophy. Wolk isn’t quite as proven on the track, but he was a strong miler a year ago, in the low 4:20s and has already won a couple miles against TSTCA competition this season, running 4:26. And as I’ve mentioned, the WPIAL has had a really nice run in the 3k the last couple years, winning in 2015, 2014, 2011 and 2010.

Speaking of the WPIAL, don’t forget about Will Loevner from Winchester Thurston. He gave Wolk a good run for his money at TSTCA and added a very strong 3200m PR at Spire just before that. This will be Loevner’s 4^th 3k/32 in the last month or so, which puts a lot on his plate. But Loevner also has the added motivation of having finished 9^th a year ago at these championships. That could be an x-factor. Marc Migliozzi of North Allegheny comes from a program that has produced a pair of 3k state champions in recent years in addition to some state medalists. He ran a huge PR last week to drop to 8:50.77 and thrust himself into contention. As usual, the North Allegheny Tigers are finding a way to peak at the right time and compete for a top medal. Migz had a pretty impressive XC season that culminated with a top 10 finish at the state championships and, although he doesn’t have an extensive track resume, recent results indicate his fitness improvements from the trails have translated.

Henry Sappey of DT West was the 6^th place finisher at this past year’s XC state championships and holds two top finishes from states in his bag of achievements. He also has the added incentive of trying to score points for a team title race. Sappey has only run 8:56 this season, but he’s a strong championship racer with the tools to run smart and navigate a potentially lethal early pace.

Liam Conway and Rusty Kujdych both enter this field in the middle of extremely impressive sophomore seasons. Kujdych has run 8:48 for 3k back in January, defeating Jeff Kirshenbaum on the flat track. Rusty has also clocked some low 4:30s miles and helped anchor the Neshaminy DMR into state qualifying range. As a frosh, Rusty was 10^th in the loaded district one (between Sappey and Kirshenbaum) and in his first ever state championship, Kujdych performed admirably, earning a state medal. Meanwhile, Conway has excelled across all three distances. He’s run 4:24, 1:59 and 8:56 all on flat tracks and had his pick of events for states. Clearly, he wants a big day in the 3k. Sophomores, historically, don’t have a terrific resume at state championships due to their inexperience and maturity, but a sophomore finished 3^rd in the 3k as recently as 2014 when Jake Brophy pulled it off, thanks to a big kick.

Paul Hayes would probably be mad at me if I didn’t mention the season Rob Moser has been having in 2016. After a breakthrough XC season, Moser has stuck his nose into every competition he’s faced during the indoor season, culminating with an 8:56 run at the Carnival that helped him lock up a spot at PSU. Moser has done some seriously gutsy running this year and will need to bring that same type of confidence and determination into this field to hang in this potentially lethal early pace. He’s proven he won’t back down from the challenge.

Casey Conboy of Baldwin has had strong success of 3200m and the Baldwin boys have had their fair share of great two milers in recent years, including a pair of sub 9:20 boys in Degregorio and Kuchta (who was all state on the track for 3k). Seth Slavin of Pleasant Valley has run quick times at both 3200m and 3k this year, adding a 8:57 to his arsenal just last week at Summitt. He’s got a pair of top 50 finishes at states in XC and will be contesting his first track state final.

Ultimately, as much as I think this field has some underrated dudes, hard to pick against Brophy and Hock. I’m a little nervous about the Brophy 4x8 double (he could scratch it, but I’m think he goes all out there), but I watched him at Penn Relays split a big leg and then turn around to run 8:29 in the 3k with a huge final lap that may have been the fastest in the field. Brophy still has yet to get an individual state title on the track (his best finish is 3^rd in the 3k two years ago) so he has a little something extra to prove as well. But he is going up against a 4 time state champ, 2 time state-runner up in Dominic Hockenbury who will not hold back. This should be fun. And remember, there’s only 14 guys in the 3k, so your odds of getting a medal are above 50% in this one. Everybody has a great shot at the top 8.

1.      Jake Brophy 8:27.55

2.      Dominic Hockenbury 8:29.96

3.      Nathan Henderson 8:36.15

4.      Nick Wolk 8:37.44

5.      Rusty Kujdych 8:44.89

6.      Will Loevner 8:49.01

7.      Liam Conway 8:51.03

8.      Jeff Kirshenbaum 8:52.17