State Predictions: 4x800m

by Jarrett Felix

4x800m

For the relays, since there are less entries than most individual distance events, I will try for a little team by team breakdown.

CR North

Ben Heintz 2:01.09i/4:23.30
Bryan Keller 4:39.83i/4:34.63
Matt Haldeman 2:07.36i/2:02.40
Sam Early 2:07.84i

Projected Line Up: Early, Haldeman, Keller, Heintz

The Forrests have had a strong season, clocking state qualifying times in the 4x8 and the DMR, before barely sneaking into this one. They are a fairly young squad (two sophomores and a junior to pair with stud leg Ben Heintz), but that didn’t stop them from finishing 5^th at states in XC this past fall. Historically, this program knows how to peak at the right time and typically, they are in the hunt for the medals in whatever relay they pursue. I was expecting to see Ryan Campbell involved considering his excellent cross season and early season mile performance, but he might be hurt (a tough loss for this squad).

North may have only slipped into this meet, but they will make the most of their opportunity.

North Penn

Tariq Baines 2:10.11i/2:07.79
Matt Gain 55.82i/2:11.48i
Brendan O’Toole 2:08.25i/4:34.67i
Dan Santiago 2:06.21i/4:39.27i/2:01.98
Joe Spallinger 54.41i
Nick Cataldi 2:13.80i/4:49.49i

Projected Line Up: Baines, Gain, O’Toole, Santiago

North Penn is leaving off their top two open 800 meter runners this season, most notably Dante Watson who has run under 2 minutes but opted for the open 400 instead. That weakens the roster of a team that already barely snuck into the state championship. That being said, North Penn is one of the best 4x8 schools in the state and, even without their top dog, they will still be a tough team to shake. Brendan O’Toole has had a very strong season, particularly in the mile. It followed a breakthrough XC run. Much like CRN, North Penn has a young squad entered here. They could be running 3 sophomores and a frosh in theory. If nothing else, this will be a great experience and learning opportunity for a team on the rise.

Cardinal O’Hara

Justin Jones 2:01.05i/1:57.37
Quentin Francis 2:02.04i/53.20i
Rob Morro 4:28.34i/4:23.47/1:58.58
Gavin Inglis 4:42.61i
Derek Sacks 2:06.58i
Patrick James 4:43.58i/4:30.65

Projected Line Up: Francis, Jones, Morro, Sacks

In the past few seasons, O’Hara has won the DMR and placed 2^nd and 4^th in the 4x8. They are one of those distance programs that people just assume will make an impact on the state scene regardless of the roster. And right now, there is a nice amount of buzz around this squad after their MoCs DMR. Personally, I really like their 4x8 squad, especially if their 4^th leg (whoever it is) comes to play. Morro and Jones have both already broken 2 in their high school careers, running 1:57 and 1:58 in the open last year. Quentin Francis has run 2:02 this indoor season and ran 2:00 a year ago, before transferring into the O’Hara system. And those three are all seniors, hungry for one last chance at a medal. They ran a solid 8:14 last week with tired legs and cruised an 8:13 earlier in the season in flats. I expect these guys to be right in the mix on race day if they run their A squad.

However, there is a chance that O’Hara throws us a curve ball with this relay. In theory, they could run Francis, Inglis, Sacks and Patrick James in the 4x8 and then keep a squad in reserve for a completely fresh run at repeating in the DMR (a suddenly wide open event). That’s what makes predicting the relays such a tricky endeavor.

Upper Darby

Amir Goodwin 2:05.22i
Evens Mercure 2:07.68i
Syed Shah 2:05.77i/4:37.54i
Jarnail Dhillon 52.75i/2:07.65i
Richard Moore 55.07i/2:09.16i
Brendon Hong 2:10.16

Projected Line Up: Dhillon, Shah, Mercure, Goodwin

The boys from UD came up huge at Meet of Champs, running their own 8:13 and cracking the coveted top 12 in PA. It’s not the first time we have seen this from Upper Darby. As recently as 2013, they unleashed a well timed peak at Lehigh and beat out future state champs Bensalem in the 4x8. That team reminds me quite a bit of this one, catching fire at just the right moment. Upper Darby doesn’t have the stars some other teams have (no one under 2:05 in the open this year), but they have a dedicate core with nice speed. The problem will be duplicating their huge run from a week ago. That 2013 team didn’t leave PSU with a medal. Will this squad?

Pennridge

Matt Eissler 2:00.40i/4:39.22i
Jeff Espinal 2:01.76i/1:56s
Luke Eissler 2:03.30i
Solomon Araneta 2:06.31i/2:04.81
Andrew Saville 4:56.83i
Patrick O’Brien 53.78i

Projected Line Up: M. Eissler, Araneta, Espinal, L. Eissler

Last year Pennridge reminded us just how strong a program they really are. Losing Joey Logue to graduation (as well as another piece of their district champion 4x8), the team turned over the roster and grabbed an indoor state medal. Then, they turned the roster over again during the same season to run 7:40 at outdoor states and grab silver. Three members of that 2015 team returned this year, but Pennridge appears ready to reset the line up one more time, leaving star Tucker Desko and 400 specialist Austin Howell out of their entries. Instead the team will be led by Jeff Espinal, who split 1:56 last outdoors at states and a trio of newcomers, including two monster freshmen in Luke and Matt Eissler. Despite the absence of Desko, Pennridge still has a 2:00, 2:03, 2:01 and 2:06 line by indoor season best which puts them on par with their 8:10 seed time. So even without Desko, I’d say Pennridge is a serious medal threat.

However, just like O’Hara, this team could have a curve ball in its back pocket. In theory, Pennridge could save Espinal and the faster Eissler brother for the DMR later in the day and take their shot at the state title in that event.

LaSalle

Luke Ullman 2:10.66i
Brendan Price 2:09.39i/4:33.31i/2:01.09
Evan Addison 2:02.23i/4:29.98i
Frank Livolsi 2:05.60i/4:41.98i
Patrick Grant 2:03.06i/4:25.71i/1:57.50
Mac Costonis

Projected Line Up: Price, Addison, Livolsi, Grant

Unlike Pennridge and O’Hara, LaSalle has 3 pieces of overlap for the DMR and won’t be able to swerve for a completely fresh DMR (although they could swerve for a mostly fresh one). So I expect LaSalle to definitely be all in on the relays. The Explorers earned state medals in this event a year ago and have consistently done enough to grab hardware each time they have tried for the last decade or so. I believe every time they’ve contested a relay, they’ve grabbed a medal. Not too shabby. And this year’s squad is deep enough to keep the streak alive. In their ideal line up, all of their legs have the ability to go 2:05 or faster and Patrick Grant has proven he can run as fast as 1:57 on the right day. The consistency on this squad should be a huge boost as they push for a top four finish. A balanced team will have the advantage of always being up near the front and being confident and running free of trouble.

CB East

Jake Brophy 1:58.71i/4:22.89i/8:36.71i/1:54s
Louis Kettleberger 2:03.10i/2:01.70
Ata Shahideh 2:04.18i/51.60i/1:56.85
Marc Motter 2:01.96
Matt Eisenlord 2:09.11i/54.46
Carlos Velez 2:02.89

Projected Line Up: Motter, Shahideh, Kettleberger, Brophy

This is one of three events on the schedule for Jake Brophy as of right now and the big question most of us are wondering is: will he try the absurd 4x8-3k-DMR triple? Last year he went mile-DMR double and CB East took an interesting approach to the second relay. They let Oliver Boucher and Ata Shahideh compete in individual events (like Brophy) rather than saving them for an “A” relay. Then they dropped Brophy into a mostly fresh DMR with newcomers Kettleberger and Sands who hadn’t raced yet (and Boucher on the 4). In other words, they were content to give guys the opportunity to experience an individual state final rather than maximize their odds at a high medal in the DMR. So what’s to stop them from doing something similar this time around? Just with two relays instead of individual events?

In theory, they could try for a Shahideh, Eisenlord, Velez, Kettleberger 4x8 and then run a Motter, Shahideh, Goetz, Andres DMR with Brophy only in the 3k. That lets all their entered runners compete. I see this as very unlikely, but I’ve never been able to predict this team’s strategy. I’m prepared for anything.

However, I’m honestly expecting an “A” team in the 4x8 with Motter, Shahideh, Kettleberger and Brophy. The DMR may just be a combination of whichever guys have the most left in the tank. Their 4x8, when stacked, can really do damage. Brophy has split 1:54 before and is no stranger to anchoring a state championship relay. Motter and Kettleberger have both run 2:01 and Louis is coming off a really strong race at meet of champs. Shahideh is the X-factor. He’s run 1:56 before and could really throw down a strong mark.

By the way, Velez has run 2:02 outdoors and could potentially be subbed in for Brophy and still give the team a competitive relay. Just in case you were looking for more variables.

Bishop Shanahan

Chris Kolimago 2:01.75i (s)/2:37.47i/4:28.65
Seamus Breslin 2:02.35i (s)/2:06.10i/4:33.64
Seamus Fromhartz 2:00.07i (s)/2:02.87i/1:26.04i/1:54s/1:58.11
Logan Yoquinto 1:59.39i (s)/4:37.80i/1:25.29i
Bradley Ingraham 2:09.16i

Projected Line Up: Kolimago, Breslin, Fromhartz, Yoquinto

In the middle of paragraphs of speculation and uncertainty, there is Bishop Shanahan. This is the only event that this relay squad will contest all day and, based on their results the last couple seasons, has been the squad’s focus for a long time. They have been quiet since their big breakthrough at Yale (running 8:03), pursuing a few individual marks and the DMR. This squad ran 7:53 last year on an outdoor track, but was bounced in the prelims of states by just a small margin. I wonder if that’s a little extra motivation in the back of their minds. Personally, I think the real x-factor here could end up being Seamus Fromhartz who ran 1:58.11 in the open last outdoors and had a monster carry for the team at districts. If he and Yoquinto are both in 1:57 shape (ran 1:25 and 1:26 for 600m), that gives them a 1-2 punch not many teams can match. Kolimago’s been pretty consistent and is experienced as a lead off leg and might have a sub 2 split in him on race day. Sub 8 is definitely in play for these guys, but how far up the field with sub 8 get you? And, if they anchor him, how will sophomore Logan Yoquinto do on the big stage?

CB West

Jake Claricurzio 52.73i/2:00.81i/1:56s
Ryan McIlhinney 55.21i/53.38/2:02.47
Rock Fortna 1:58.25i/4:24.34i/1:54s/4:17.75
Declan McDonald 2:06.93i/2:04.68
Carter Zerweck 53.02/1:58.31
Alec Hofer 2:02i (s)

Projected Line Up: Zerweck, Claricurzio, Hofer, Fortna

West is a proven 4x8 club who won the state title in this event in 2011. Although they are entered in the DMR as well, the team has indicated that this relay is their primary focus and where they believe their primary strength lies. Fortna is one of the first game changing legs we have discussed. He has multiple 1:54 splits to his name and has already ran down squads this indoor season. His other relay members are no slouches, including sophomore Jake Claricurzio who split 1:56 at Penn Relays last year as just a freshman. CB West didn’t gain a ton of steam at Meet of Champs (unlike last year where they won the 4x8 over future state champs Pennsbury), but maybe that will be an advantage heading into states. Last year they popped big performances at MoCs and Districts (2^nd to Pennsbury), but slipped a tiny bit at states. This year, they will enter the meet more motivated and more experienced. That’s a dangerous combination.

Penn Wood
Dennis Manyeah 50.41i/1:22.08i/1:56.13i/1:55s
Ndiaga Seck 49.58i/1:57i (s)
Todd Jackson
Jahi Smith 53.22i/1:27.49i/2:04.85i/2:03.02
Qadir Lewis 1:33.52i
Tyreem Welton 54.14i

Projected Line Up: Manyeah, Jackson, Smith, Seck

Last outdoors, Penn Wood drifted quietly off the radar in the state’s longest relay. Although we knew their 4x4 was killer, they secretly were hoarding an 800 platoon that eventually ran 7:49 and grabbed a top finish at states. Leading off for that 2015 squad was Dennis Manyeah, who has run 1:56 this season (in December) and provided a big lead off run on the team’s 8:02 relay. The other good news is Ndiaga Seck is really starting to come into his own as an 800m runner. The 400 specialist (49 this indoors, 47 split last outdoors) is finding a groove at 800m and split around 1:57 according to the Armory website when Penn Wood dropped the aforementioned 8:02. Manyeah dropped the open 8 to focus on both relays and will likely be on lead off duties, hoping to repeat his killer 1:55 lead off leg he provided at last year’s outdoor championships.

Abington

Isiah Smith 49.76i/49.18
Josh Coleman 52.88/2:05.71
Jake Good 1:57.87i
Keion Broadus 1:59.02i
Cameron Mitchell 1:59.50i/1:58.47
Harpeet Singh 2:05.07i/2:01.85

Projected Line Up: Good, Mitchell, Singh, Broadus

At the beginning of the indoor season, it looked like no one would touch the galloping ghosts. They ran state leading times in basically every relay imaginable and closest out 2015 with an 8:01 dominate victory at the Armory. But that mark is still Abington’s seed time as they enter the state championships at the end of February. So it might seem like this team peaked too early. However, if you look at all of the squad’s individual performances, as well as the 4x4, they’ve made big strides forward. They’ve clocked a 3:19 with most of these same pieces and Good, Broadus and Mitchell have all run sub 2 minutes on flat tracks. That’s a dangerous three headed monster. And don’t forget, Abington won the MoC 4x800m with a partially doubling squad, running 8:09 and defeating teams like Pennridge, Upper Darby and Neshaminy in the process. That may not seem like a huge accomplishment, but remember Bensalem and Pennsbury tried and failed to pull that off during their state title runs in 2013 and 2015. There is not a lot of time between events at MoCs and there are usually more than a few fresh squads waiting to take a big scalp. But still Abington came out on top. With completely fresh legs, Abington hopes to reclaim the state title in the 4x8 for the first time since 2010.

Germantown Friend’s

Nick Dahl 4:14.5i (s)/4:17.18i/9:01.81/1:56s
Grayson Hepp 1:55.50i
Jonnie Plass 2:02.36i/2:02.21
Colin Riley 2:01i (s)/2:03.49
Daniel Stassen 2:02.64
Gordon Goldstein 2:00.15

Projected Line Up: Plass, Dahl, Riley, Hepp

Everyone’s favorite DMR powerhouse is playing the same game as always, just with a few new rules. Usually, GFS saves up for an end of meet DMR with fresh pieces, attacking a fast time and a top four finish (and usually that strategy pays off). However, this year, teams can run both relays, a new wrinkle in the GFS equation. So the Tigers have decided to scrap the individual events in hopes of claiming both relay titles on Sunday. That’s a bold strategy, Cotton, let’s see if it pays off for them.

Nick Dahl and Grayson Hepp both were top seeds in their respective events (Dahl was a top seed in two events) but they have made sacrifices for the good of the team, a move that can usually bring a lot of positive energy to a squad. Dahl has great strength, his best event is probably the 2 mile, but his speed is also underrated. He did a monster workout in his penntrack training logs and he’s run something like 52.0 from scratch in the 400m. But Hepp is the difference maker for this team. Grayson has run 1:55 this year twice in two big spots and that’s why GFS can boast a sub 8 relay right now.

I think GFS is definitely better suited for the DMR and they are taking a chance in that event by throwing down an “A” squad here to start the day. However, I like the confidence and I like the risk. It should make for an entertaining start. Very interested to see who steps in alongside Hepp and Dahl. The sophomore Riley apparently split 2:01 on their sub 8 team, but Plass, Goldstein and Stassen all have run in the 2:02ish ball park in the opens at some point in their careers. Those legs will be critical considering most top teams competing for the win at states have at least 3 guys under 2 minutes in the state final.

State College

Owen Wing 1:59.3hi
Nick Feffer 1:56.36i (s)/4:25.29i/1:54s
Anthony Degleris 1:59.27i (s)/2:01.34i/1:56s
Alex Milligan 1:56.32i (s)/4:24.09i/1:53s/4:17.08
Joey Feffer 2:02.5h
Craig Hilliard 2:07.03i

Projected Line Up: Wing, N. Feffer, Degleris, Milligan

Well, State College officially can’t fly under the radar anymore. I’ve made a living picking this squad in prediction contests for the last 12 months or so, but between the 7:41 last spring and the 7:51 time they just dropped at Millrose, there is no hiding the home team. They had 4 guys sub 2 at the Armory, including lead off leg Owen Wing who had just run an open (hand time) 1:59.3 the Thursday prior. Feffer, Degleris and Milligan all, in my opinion, still have a bit of room to drop as none of them were truly pushed all the way to the line at the Armory. Perhaps that’s the reason that SC floated out the idea of pursuing the state record, a very quick 7:45.06, when they return home this Sunday.

And that’s the thing you can’t forget. These guys have home track advantage. That means sleeping in your own bed, having a normal routine, enjoying a large spectator section. I swear in 2010 the Altoona cheering section almost carried Wade Endress past Will Kellar in an absurd DMR (would have been a real nice upset). It’s also worth noting that three of these same four guys were on both the indoor and outdoor teams that medaled at states. It wasn’t that long ago that SC produced the state champs in the 4x8, 2014 to be exact, and this team stacks up nicely against that team.

In terms of the record chase, this record is going to be very tricky to break. That CB West team had one heck of a day and also had the benefit of racing the second fastest indoor 4x8 of all time: Abington (although Abington didn’t run it on that day). SC will be completely fresh (just like West was) and will be racing completely fresh competition (including a very good Abington team) so those are some advantages, but they would still need to run over 6 seconds faster than they did at the Armory last weekend. They can win with solid days, but they will need a big breakthrough carry from Wing or Degleris (or both) to snatch the record away from CB West.

In the end, I like the experienced, seasoned 4x8 squad from SC to pull out this victory. I just think they have the most talent as well as the best suited relay for the job, especially with Wing coming on as a sub 2 piece. The battle behind them should be tight. I go back and forth on GFS who also has a ton of talent, but perhaps isn’t meant for a speed battle with someone like Abington or CB West. But we haven’t seen many fast times from these squads recently so it’s unclear who exactly has the most momentum entering the championships. And, heck, we still aren’t sure who is even running in some of these relays! But dang, the 4x8 to start of the indoor state championships? It does have a nice ring to it ….

1.      State College 7:49.96
2.      CB West 7:54.22
3.      Abington 7:54.82
4.      GFS 7:55.90
5.      CB East 7:57.50
6.      O’Hara 8:00.16
7.      Bishop Shanahan 8:00.67
8.    LaSalle 8:02.00