Ice Cream Train

EDIT: CURRENT INDOOR STANDINGS WITH PROJECTED CUT-OFFS: HERE

By Jarrett Felix

We are officially in February and you might, like me, be wondering what "big things" still have left to see this year. Naturally, plenty of guys who have run fast, will chase even faster times in their key events, but that's not what this post is meant to discuss (to obvious). Instead, I take a look at what events teams/individuals have yet to compete in that we might expect them to before the season's end. It's also worth noting that each of these runners/squads could really shake up the picture in their respective events if they choose to participate. 

As usual, I will preface this by saying this is all conjecture and I don't have any inside info or anything like that. Just some things I expect/hope to see happen before we hit state Sunday.

Jake Brophy and the 3k

Dominic Hockenbury and the 3k

Alright, seems obvious enough, but neither of these guys has contested the event yet and if either does they would likely instantly become state title favorites (although Kirsh and Dahl have strong cases of their own). Brophy is through in the mile and his relays both seem like they would comfortably qualify at this stage in the game which means he can really focus on blasting a big 3000. If his team goes for the DMR at states (tentatively my guess for them) he won't contest the 3k, but if he runs in the 8:30s at a tfcaofgp meet it would be hard to deny his favorite status.

Meanwhile Hock has run two indoor meets, both miles and both strong races. He has yet to run a 3k as he did last year almost exclusively during indoors. I'm not sure how many meets he has left on his schedule (PTFCA Carnival is likely next), but I'd be stunned if he isn't competing in the 3k at states and in the mix for gold. The first step is clocking a sub 9 minute time to put yourself in the mix. Hopefully he doesn't wait to long to get it. You never know if you will have an off day or a fall or a random DQ on the wrong day so it's nice to have some back up plans.

CB West and the DMR

Pennridge and the DMR

CR North and the DMR

All these teams battled it out in an impressive early season DMR with Pennridge winning, but since then none of these schools have paid much attention to the 4000m relay. All of these squads are nice 4x8 teams, but each could likely drop extremely impressive DMR times as well. CR North, assuming Ryan Campbell is still healthy, has the most to gain in my eyes from focusing on the DMR as the other two schools will (almost) definitely push for the 4x8 and fit that event well while CRN seems to fit better into the long relay. However, if Pennridge or CB West decides to switch gears to a DMR (especially a fresh DMR) they can become instant title contenders and change the dynamics of both the 4x8 and the DMR. 

I'd imagine at the very least both teams will want to explore their options in the event prior to states. Maybe even leave the possibility of a relay double on the table.

Carlisle and the DMR/4x8

Seneca Valley and the DMR/4x8

This might be a bit more of a dream than a reality. Seneca Valley has the arguably the best anchor in the state in Mike Kolor who could run 1:55 or 4:18 to anchor a potential qualifying relay. If you have a 4:18 anchor leg, you need something along the lines of 3:22, 55, 2:05 to run 10:40 (a top 3-5 time in the state). Seneca Valley has shown signs they have those kind of pieces on the roster. Maybe Kolor goes 800-relay at states rather than mile-800 double as a result? 

Meanwhile, as I mentioned in my recap, Carlisle has 3 guys at 2:03 or faster in the open 800, putting them in rare company. They are next to just Abington in that category and those are the state leaders. They could also crush a DMR with Wisner on the mile (or the 12, he could probably scortch a 12). I'd be scared of that team for sure.

O'Hara and the 4x800

I think the defending state champs in the DMR are likely going to contest that event at states and defend their title, but I'm keeping an eye on the 2 mile relay. Justin Jones and Quentin Francis are both strong 800 guys who have been quietly solid so far. Rob Morro can break 2 minutes as well and he's crushed his last two runs at the over distances. I'm not sure who their 4th leg would be at this point, but those three guys aren't too shabby. Especially because I have this feeling Jones and Francis are on the verge of a breakout. 

Jake Susalla, Todd Gunzenhauser, Jacob Stupak and basically everyone in the WPIAL and basically everything 

The TSTCA is just getting back into it so who knows what is left to be unveiled. Personally I listed these three names because they haven't run any individual events this winter, but they have crushed it on the track in the past. But realistically, the WPIAL has a ton of guys just waiting to unleash a 3k and even someone like Will Loevner, who just ran 9 flat is, in all likelihood, just getting started in dropping fast times.

There's not a lot of space in the mile and 800 as things currently stand (especially because Edinboro is going to count as an oversized track), but the 3k is still not absurdly fast overall. I'm looking for an onslaught of guys under or near 9 minutes in one of these meets coming up and that would be a real game changer. 

XC Guys and the 3k

Brophy, Hockenbury, Mackey, Dahl (the 4 state champs)

Hall (national qualifier)

Skolnekovich, Kravitz, Jax Hoey, Josh Hoey, Wolk, Henderson, Sappey, Susalla, Stupak, Kirshenbaum (sub 16 at Hershey club)

Of that group just Dahl, Kirshenbaum and Sappey have had a serious go at a 3k qualifier. Notice that's the 1-2 in the state plus Sappey who is also around the top 5 as things stand. History tells us, XC studs are usually a smart place to start for 3k/2 mile champs so it seems logical to bet at least one of these monsters lurking in the shadow is going to come out and start saying "boo". 

Downingtown West and ?

No idea what the plan is here but my gut says they are going all in on individuals and skipping the relays. They have plenty of time to get a qualifier (they can probably do it without even running a full A squad), but they have shown no signs they want it as of now.

Hopefully we at least see something at nationals considering they have 2 of the best milers in the state and perhaps the best 400 meter runner as well.

Jarrett Felix and the Getting in Shape

I'm training for the first time since my Marathon days and, although I haven't done any track workouts or things like that, the goal is to be in shape to extend my "sub 5 streak" into 2016 (so far I have broken 5 at least once a year, every year since 2008 so fingers crossed I can keep the streak alive). I would say this is a solid humble brag, but considering my goal is just to break 5 and there are people out there reading this closing in on breaking 4 one day, I think we can all agree this isn't anything mind blowing.

Here's the fun part (well actually by most people's definition, probably not but still): if I end up making the trip to PSU and conditions are solid enough to maybe try and hop on the outdoor track, maybe I can chase my sub 5 there and meet and greet with some readers. No clue I'm just spit balling about potential ideas to create more interaction with the site. If you have any ideas on what we should if we get a representative at PSU, share them in the comments section.

Now back on topic

? And the Relay explosion

I'm just saying, it took roughly 8:11 and 10:48 to make states last year in the relays. And that was when you could only run one. We are nowhere near that kind of qualifying cut off right now (which is good I guess because no deserving teams are left out), but I can't imagine that it's going to stay that way very long. Sometime very soon we are going to have a week that rewrites the relays the way the 8-mile have been crushed as of late. 

So each team better bring your A game.

Nick Dahl and the Mile

This was supposed to happen at New Balance, but ended up getting cancelled due to snow (thanks snow). Most of the guys scheduled to do the mile that day have since hopped in at other places to get a state qual type mark. However, Dahl has not yet. He split a 4:14 at Yale and is also the state leader at 3k. If he runs a sick time in the mile, it makes skipping the 3k for the DMR a bit easier to stomach, plus it makes the mile even more loaded out front. If Dahl scratches the 3k, it further opens up the field for a sleeper to emerge. 

Plus there are tons of domino effects in play with GFS's own events including both relays and Grayson Hepp. This team has a lot of decisions on their plate. Although to be fair I think they are good decisions that most coach would prefer like "dang we are doing so well in so many different things how do we pick?"

In the end, that's what most of these ideas are centered around: expanding your teams possibilities for states. Deciding between chocolate ice cream and vanilla ice cream is a difficult decision for some people, but, in the end, either way you are getting ice cream. So it's not all bad.

What did I leave out? What big marks are you expecting? Which type of ice cream do you prefer? I'm curious to hear from you guys about all of these questions and more. Especially the ice cream thing.