The Indoor Standings Report

Presented by Jarrett Felix

We are rapidly approaching the end of the season and, depending on who you ask, the state qualifying picture is either developing nicely or needs another couple snaps before the disposable can be dropped off (kids ask your parents what this means). Personally, it feels like somebodies finger might have been over the lens this year as I’m having a devil of a time figuring out what the strategy will be now that teams can enter both relays.

EDITOR’S NOTE: RANT BEGINNING, SKIP TO NON ITALICIZED SECTION TO AVOID RANT

I’d imagine the rule was put in place so that schools with team title aspirations but a distance specialty could utilize their depth in both relays. That’s nice in principal, but how many teams, realistically are going to try and score in both relays at states? Any team that does likely will be sacrificing individual events somewhere along the way or running with very tired legs by the time the DMR rolls around. Can’t help but feel like the rule just screwed a couple more teams out of their chance to compete at states. Not trying to be mean, just sharing my opinion. I’d love to hear others.

The other effect seems to be an overloading of individual talent in the open distance events. Considering the 4x8 is first, anybody in the open 8 doesn’t have to save up for the relay and can easily do both. Plus less teams qualifying in relays, means more teams will be forced into focusing on individual success. That means a bigger talent pool in the individuals and, therefore, a tougher road to state qualifying for individuals.

Of course this rant is probably pointless now, we still have no idea how things will unfold in the final weeks of the season. Maybe they will stretch the fields a bit to allow for some sub 4:30 milers to get in the field who I’m projecting may be left out, similar to what happened with Alex Knapp in the 3k (only individual to hit the SQG in the distance events and be added because he was outside the entry limits). Mostly, I’m just upset the 4x8 only has one heat. They should at least do as a favor and lower the SQG if they are going to keep the 4x8 at one heat. There will never be a year where only 12 teams can run 8:22.06 (we’ve got 17 this year and counting).

Sorry, I’m done now. Just doing a little bit of standing up for the distance runners out there as we continue to get pushed around.

EDITOR’S NOTE: WE ARE BACK, ETRAIN HAS CALMED DOWN

Let’s talk distance action! The fun stuff. I’ll break down where we are in the five distance events headed into the last week of state qualifying while recapping the action and keeping an eye on the future. Hopefully this will be a fun and worthwhile read.

EDITOR’S NOTE: ETRAIN CHANGED HIS MIND ABOUT WHERE THE CUTOFFS WOULD BE BEFORE, DURING AND AFTER THIS POST WAS TYPED. CLICK THE STANDINGS LINKS FOR HIS MOST UP TO DATE OPINION

4x800m Standings

GFS is currently the PA #1 in the event as the only squad to crack 8 minutes in the relay. With Abington and State College headed to the very fast Millrose Games and a ton of teams likely taking aim at a fast time at Meet of Champs, that list could change, but at a minimum, GFS will likely be a top 3-5 seed. However, there’s lots of reasons to think they may pass on the relay. Both Nick Dahl and Grayson Hepp would enter the state meet with top five potential in their respective individual events (for Dahl that could be mile or 3k, Hepp would be 800). Plus, the team has a state champion caliber DMR, the school’s patented event which has been their consistent focus since the event was added in 2007. I just get the feeling this team will go all in on that relay and, at least from what I can tell, if their “B” team doesn’t hit the 8:12ish type mark they need to get to states on their own, GFS won’t enter a “B” team into the mean. So I’m guesstimating a scratch for PA #1 GFS at states, as crazy as that sounds.

All the teams currently under 8:10 (there’s 8 counting GFS) should have no problem getting in even after the dust settles this weekend. There are a ton of teams hovering around the 8:15 mark who could clip a few more seconds off, but I don’t see 4-5 teams breaking 8:10. Of the sub 8:10 crew, LaSalle and CB East seem like the only possible scratches, everybody else seems like a lock for the 4x8 (i.e. Abington, Penn Wood, CB West, Bishop Shanahan and State College).

Pennridge is the sleeper squad here considering their best 4 runners in the open events have already run 1:54-2:00-2:01-2:03 and that doesn’t include sub 50 man Austin Howell. They just clocked a sick DMR so maybe they will lean towards that event, but they also have an excellent 4x4 squad that will be in the all-state conversation at PSU. This school has also yet to contest the DMR at states in the last decade, so I think the 4x8 will be their primary focus, DMR may get a pseudo “B” squad with Desko maybe on the triple.

O’Hara just had guys at 2:01 and 2:02 today at PCLs to go along with two milers at 4:28 and 4:31. I wouldn’t be incredibly comfortable with their 8:13 seed time, but they also likely want to drop that DMR time into state qualifying contention. I go back and forth with these guys because I love their 4x8 potential in addition to Morro’s 3k upside, but this team is also the defending champs in the DMR and likely want to defend their crown. I’d bet they go DMR at MoCs and then make a crunch time decision on what the heck they want to do.

Seneca Valley is interesting because they are leaning quite a bit on Kolor who could potentially win either the mile or the 800. Not sure what their strategy will be, but I am hoping they give the DMR a go this weekend and maybe let Kolor focus on an individual event and then double back for the relay rather than the other way around.

It’s a mad dash for the last 1-3 spots depending on what scratches may pop up. As of now There are six teams packed between 8:15 and 8:17 with North Penn fresh off a strong showing at TFCAofGP Last Chance and leading the charge. This North Penn squad could do serious work, but CRN and defending champs Pennsbury will likely give them a hard core rematch at MoCs. Upper Dublin has run some really fast marks on Glenn Mills track so, in theory, they could get themselves into the mix as well with a big time on a fast track. And of course there is DT East and Perk Valley rounding out the group. I’m not sure if there is another school secretly hoarding a 4x8, waiting to unleash it at MoCs (only team would be DT West, but their best leg is at Millrose), but my best bet is the battle will be between these schools.

Mile Standings

I feel this event is the one most likely to have a bunch of scratches. The 4x8 and mile are pretty close together and dudes are going to keep fresh for the 8 and 3k (and maybe even the DMR). That’s a good thing considering that, as of the writing of this post, we have 42 guys in PA under the SQG with another couple knocking on the door. Even with 11 projected scratches in the top 28 entries, I still think the state cut off cut could be under 4:28 (making Ryan Barton the first man out). Barton had a killer race at Last Chance and looks to be returning to the top form we saw from him outdoors in 2015 (4:18 for 1600m), but he’s very much on the bubble entering MoCs. So too are guys like PJ Murray, Patrick Donahue and Noah Falasco, some of which just ran excellent miles this past weekend.

An interesting name to watch headed in MoCs may be Neshaminy’s Rusty Kujdych. He’s sitting at 4:30.11 converted and just on the outside looking in for this field. He’s a top flight 3k contender, but considering the team’s DMR leanings, he’d probably rather take the easier mile-DMR double if it’s available. The same would be true for Joe Maguire of CR South. Maguire has run 4:32 this year, but considering his killer 8:52, I’d bet he’s got something in the tank to drop time.

There are a couple of contenders lurking in the 4:26 range as well who, crazy enough, aren’t incredibly far from the bubble (although I think they will be safe). Nick Wolk jumps out after another strong showing at TSTCA, winning the mile and the 3k in 4:26 and 9:04. It looks like he will be running out of the slower section barring something unexpected at TSTCA championships (not crazy to think he could drop towards 4:23-4:24 in the right race), but he would be a medal contender from that position in my eyes. Ben Bumgarner and Tristan Forsythe of the WPIAL also had strong 1600m showings this weekend and lurk on the back end of the medal contenders. And you can never count out someone like Kent Hall or Connor McMenamin, neither of whom are currently fast enough to hit the state cut off in the 3k (although Connor is real close). McMenamin is especially intriguing because, although I feel the 3k could be his best event, he absolutely crushed his last mile performance, which makes him the #1 seed for TFCAofGP Meet of Champs in the mile, should he choose to enter.

The front of this field seems surprisingly wide open. Hoey has jumped out as such a huge favorite, that many other top guys may have rethought their position in this race. Jake Brophy hasn’t run a mile since Lawerenceville and I don’t believe has a mile qual for Meet of Champs. That means his 4:22.89 seed time (currently 8^th in PA) won’t improve this weekend. If he was serious about the mile, I would guess he may want to drop that time down a few pegs and give himself more comfort to say in the hot heat (although admittedly, I’m not sure I see 3+ guys jumping him as things currently stand)/ Overall, I just think Brophy will lean 3k this year, unlike his mile exploration in 2015. But that’s purely a guess.

It also kinda feels like Peretta and Kolor could end up in the 800 over the mile. Kolor is a bit more of a wildcard as he has shown considerable focus on both events (and doubling both events) during the season and just ran a monster 4:15.00 in Boston for a clear PA #2. But Kolor has the aforementioned 4x8 to cloud his thinking and potentially complicate his double. Meanwhile Peretta, who has the fastest PR in the bunch for 800m and the mile outdoors, has only contested one 1600m this year, a mark that converts to 4:24 and puts him 11^th in the state. He’s run a pair of 1:54s in the last two weeks, one of them completely solo, one of them against top notch competition and he would be the state’s #1 seed in the event. I’d love to see Peretta try both events (he has not relays on his plate and I think he is the most formidable challenger to Hoey), but it’s starting to feel like the guy just wants to focus his energies 100% on the 8.

Tucker Desko, the early season 4:20 miler, seems like a logical scratch thanks to the 4x8 and his position in the open 8. Same can be said for Rock Fortna. Hockenbury will almost definitely scratch the mile to focus on the 3k. The SC guys could go either way at this point, especially Milligan who just ran another top notch mile at Lehigh. Same thing for Patrick Grant of LaSalle. Then you have Nick Dahl in the mix as well as a possible scratch for any number of reasons (4x8, DMR, 3k). So that’s a ton of top names likely taking off this one. And hey what if Galligan scratches for the 3k? Or Josh Hoey saves himself for the DMR?

That means things could potentially be wide open behind Jax Hoey. I do think Galligan and Josh will definitely run, as will top contender Colin Wills, but after that it’s really up for grabs. I think we could see some surprising upsets for the top couple spots in this one and a really intriguing state field. Watch out for Cooper Leslie, Brody Beiler and even Sean Sullivan of Bonner (fresh off a sick mile at PCLs where he finished 2^nd to Patrick Grant). I think this is going to be a really fun race and I’m excited to see who all is participating.

800m Standings

I think this is the deepest event in the state right now. I really do. And I don’t see a lot of guys scratching. If the guys have relay obligations, it’s most likely for the 4x8 and if it’s for the DMR, they most likely are too impressive in the individuals to justify scratching out of the 8. Plus many of the top guys in this field are milers, but the mile is first so doubling back in the 8, in theory, shouldn’t have any effect on their primary. Therefore, why would you not try the double? Maybe I’m over simplifying this (things like the 4x4 come into play), but I think it’s extremely possible we only see 1 scratch out of the top 24 (Brophy seems like a lock to scratch) in the 800m (which would make the last time in a 1:59.11 converted).

Of course, there probably will be other scratches. Jaxson Hoey may scratch from the 8 for the DMR later in the day (not betting on that at this point though) and the same is true for Josh (slightly more likely because he is not on the 4x4 as far as I know). Sean Conway of Neshaminy could potentially be a late scratch for the DMR and so could someone like Rock Fortna or Tucker Desko. Grayson Hepp seems like the most likely scratch of the top group as GFS strikes me as the team most likely to go all in on the DM from this bunch.

So overall, this race is going to be stacked seeing as very few top guys, if any, are expected to scratch out. As of right now, it’s possible that 1:56.13 would be the cut off to get in the fast heat (I’ve got Hepp as a scratch which puts Wolfinger in the mix in his place). Kamil Jihad who just dropped 2:00.27 is my projected last guy in as things stand, converting to 1:59.67. Worth noting, he ran the 400-800 double at PCLs and did pretty darn well so I think there is room to cut even more time off this one.

But I got distracted for a second. Let’s revisit the favorites out front. With Peretta running 1:54.14 and 1:54.13 back to back weekends, he looks like a clear top flight contender, especially if he stays fresh against Hoey. But Hoey’s SB was a very evenly split 1:54.52 back in the beginning of January. He could definitely pull off a double like Endress, Ritz, etc. in these two events. The same goes from someone like Kolor who has run 1:55 on the double from a 1:54 split already this year. Peretta, Kolor and Penn Trafford junior Nick Wanger will all have a very legit chance at grabbing the 800 title for the WPIAL, a rare win for D7 on the indoor track (when’s the last time a D7 guy won the 8 indoors? Ever?). Wagner is picking up some steam of his own, dropping time yet again this weekend, running 1:55.16 and nipping at Dom P’s heels.

I’m not ready to count out Tucker Desko. He has been near unstoppable this year, winning his heat en route to his 1:54 and 4:20 times, but also crushing it on the relay for Pennridge’s DMR. Desko’s current seed time comes from January 23^rd at PSU’s track and, at the time, was arguably the most impressive performance in the event for 2016. And still might be.

But my current pick is Matt Wisner. He’s fresh off a big time anchor leg on the DMR at the Carnival and the kid has proven himself with big wins throughout the season. He has yet to get a shot at the likes of Hoey or the WPIAL boys, but I think the kid will be up for the challenge. Especially if thing somehow ends up a kickers race.

Josh Hoey heads up a nice sleeper contingent. Although I think a DMR is in play for him (maybe Sappey, Barton and Josh run a DM together and Jax does the mile, 8, 4x4 triple?), I think his most recent last chance run at Lehigh (1:58.24 to beat Jake Brophy) may signal a mile-800 double at PSU. He may use the Meet of Champs as one last shot at the hot heat, which is probably going to take the equivalent of 1:57 mid on a fast track, but could end up taking something as quick as 1:56.

Hudson Delisle is another big time sleeper to remember. I was really impressive by his 1:59 run at Glenn Mills and his big win against Cameron Mitchell of Abington. Abington could potentially get as many as three guys in this field, as could Pennridge, although they would need Espinal to get after it this weekend at last chance. The battle for the last few spots could definitely be tough as I think it may end up taking sub 2 on a flat track to get to states. That means guys like Jihad, Cooke, Isaiah Bailey and others have to hop in something this weekend if they want to secure a spot.

3,000m Standings

Jake Brophy’s 8:36 bombshell at Lehigh followed shortly by Dom Hockenbury’s 9:12 for 3200m really blew this thing open and creates an obvious heads up battle for the title. I expect Dahl to drop out of this one for the DMR (I’d be absolutely stunned to see him in this event honestly), meaning Kirshenbaum may be the most potent challenger to a Brophy-Hock 1-2 finish. Of course, if Brophy and CB East decide to put their eggs in the DMR basket for the second year in a row, we won’t see Brophy at all in this one. But right now I’m betting against that happening. Or maybe just hoping? Hard to say where emotion and logic overlap.

Rusty Kujdych is lurking as a real wildcard here. The sophomore ran 8:48.60 to defeat Kirshenbaum all the way back on January 9^th and has yet to contest a 3k since. Neshaminy has pushed a lot of chips in on the DMR, so to me it doesn’t make a lot of sense to expect Rusty in this event. But can you really leave one of the most talented sophs in recent history out of an event where he could content for an all-state finish? That’s not for me to decide of course, but my guess is Rusty goes DMR, meaning this 3k is a scratch.

In my opinion, the two (maybe even three) most likely upset contenders in this one had their big breakthroughs this weekend. Nate Henderson of JP McCaskey cut another 10 seconds or so off his seed time with a fantastic 8:48 run for gold at Lehigh, defeating Liam Galligan of Springfield who ran his own impressive 8:51. Henderson, who ran 9:08 for 3200m last year as a sophomore, is undefeated this year on the track and has proven he will run fearless against the top names in the state.

The other big contender in my eyes is Winchester Thurston’s Will Loevner. He ran an excellent 9:24 for 3200m (converting to 8:49 by PTFCA standards) in a loaded race at SPIRE. That puts him in the top 7 seeds for states. It also is a PR for 3200m, indoors or out, for the two time outdoor AA medalist at the same distance. Loevner was the dreaded 9^th placer last year at indoor states if memory serves, and I’m betting he hasn’t forgotten. He’s been easily the top dog in the WPIAL for this event so far this winter, which is saying something considering D7 has housed the 2010, 2011, 2014 and 2015 state champions at 3k.

The last guy I had in mind was Peters Township stand out Nick Wolk, who ran 9:04 against Jake Susalla (9:06) at TSTCA. He was the best XC runner in the district during the fall, but has put his focus more on the mile this winter. If he changes gears at the TSTCA champs and runs a fresh 3k, we may see something pretty noteworthy.

Galligan could be another contender in this one for sure, but I’m guessing he will do the mile first, which could have an effect on this run. Same goes for someone like Liam Conway (but he may lean mile-800 double instead, hard to say). Joe Maguire and Tucker Desko are likely looking at relays after the 3k so they would be logical scratches here as well. Same goes for Spencer Smucker, although at 9:01.11, he is very much on the bubble.

Shout out to a couple strong performances this weekend from Rob Moser and Eddie Goebel. Goebel dropped a 9:00.00 right behind Rob Morro (serious sleeper contender in the 3k if he doesn’t have relay obligations) to jump Matt Kravitz for my projected last man in spot. Meanwhile, Moser dropped to 8:56.20 at the Carnival, beating some top notch names and putting him at PA #11 headed into the last week. He should be safe to make the top 12 with scratches and, worst comes to worst, the PTFCA has proven they aren’t afraid to add a name or two in the 3,000.

Be on the lookout for one more fast 3k at TSTCA with maybe a few names dropping big PRs to surprise (Curtin? TGunz (does he have a qual time?)? Migz?). I’m hoping Susalla gets in considering how clutch we saw him run at states in XC. Also, can we find a race for guys like Lapsansky, Lefever, etc. to jump in? I hope they can find a way to take one more shot at the 3k. Lefever ran 9:02 this weekend and Lapsansky ran 9:04, both excellent times, but not quite fast enough to punch their ticket. It’s worth noting that a race this weekend would be a third straight 3k and then states would be a 4^th straight. So that would, admittedly, be a lot of 3ks.

Large pack of dudes sitting between 9:01-9:07. Might be a pseudo play in game at Meet of Champs as well.

DMR Standings

The reigning XC state champs over at Downingtown West set the DMR on fire at the Varsity Classic, winning against a stacked regional field with a time of 10:16.3. That’s no joke, putting them at about the same spot as Henderson in 2014. That Henderson squad unloaded basically all their individuals in the mile (Moy, Russell, Barchet, Collins) and then had them come back for a DMR (along with Steve Thompson who doubled from the 8), paired with a fresh Eric Stratman, who anchored the team to an easy state title.  This year’s West team is a bit more complicated. West is very much in the conversation for the team title (are they the favorites? I’d guess they are, but I don’t keep track of this sort of thing) and that throws a wrench into the DMR mix. Jax Hoey could score big points in the mile and 8, as could his brother on a slightly smaller scale. Barton is trending upward, with a chance to maybe steal a point or two on the back end of scoring and Sappey is one of the clear scoring contenders in the 3k.  Plus the team has the 4x2 and 4x4 to worry about. So where does the DMR fit in? The answer might be, it doesn’t.

I’m guessing the scratch as of now, but I suppose it’s possible they finagle some B team in there with Sappey, Barton and Josh Hoey to save Jax for the 4x4. If Barton doesn’t make it in to the mile (possible considering the crazy depth in the event), he would be a sick 1200 leg for some type of doubling team. And with only 12 squads toeing the line, they could steal a point or two on the back end and help their team standings.

Besides West, the only other teams I could see throwing in the towel on the DMR right now are Abington and CB East (with a small, small chance for Pennridge). Brophy seems like a probable 3k guy right now and he’s the heart of their DM. Abington would likely have 3 members of their DMR on the 4x4 (which is PA #1), so I doubt they would risk blowing their best shot at gold.

Teams like GFS, Henderson, Carlisle, Neshaminy, CR South, Unionville, HG Prep and Spring Ford all seem like they would be ecstatic to run this race if they get the chance (the last 4 or so teams will be fighting tooth and nail for that honor). I’d think you can write some of those schools in at pen at this point. But on the flip side, I have no idea what the plan is for teams like State College, CB West, Pennridge and LaSalle, three of which just ran sick times in the relay. SC is a 4x8 school first and foremost and they also have nice individual potential from Milligan and Feffer, plus a 4x4. So will they even “waste their time” going after this event? Similar story for Pennridge, who has perhaps an even better 4x4. CB West strikes me as a team that could make both relays their focus, but who knows. They have Fortna sitting as a senior with medal potential in an event. Then LaSalle has milers oozing from their roster all over the place to pair with a historic record in this event. But they have so much talent, it’s unclear where exactly it all fits.

Overall, I’d be LaSalle and West go after this one hard. Pennridge is 50-50, especially considering Desko could have a very busy day and State College is probably in a similar boat (with Milligan having a similar schedule to Desko perhaps). I’d give slightly better odds to SC making an honest run at this one. Not sure exactly why I feel that way, just a hunch.

Realistically, if everyone doubles the way I expect, this race could become very wide open. Carlisle, who won at the Carnival fresh off sitting in traffic, seems incredibly dangerous if they can keep it close for Wisner. Not to stick on this too much, but Wisner and SC are building up a nice little rivalry. At Mid Penns, Wisner beat out Feffer for the title, but Feffer then got him back at states. Now Wisner runs down SC’s anchor (not sure if Feffer or Milligan) in a big sprint finish. Fun plot line.

By the way, this field is far from set. There are 28 teams that have DMR seeds converted to sub 10:57 or faster, including 8 teams between 10:49 and 10:52 by converted seed. None of those teams are currently in my projected 12, but most of the teams (particulary CRN and O’Hara) could be gunning hard after a state spot this week. Bonner almost definitely will make a serious run at the event (they have a nice history of getting to the SQS at MoCs), East’s anchor Moser looks great, Penncrest is a mid-distance powerhouse, Cheltenham ran 10:52 back in December, and the list goes on. It’s crazy.

Also, I’m curious if Spring Ford has any meets left? They ran a sick 10:49 at the Carnival, but just missed the SQG and currently sit at #15 in this field (one place out of my projected cut off). I’m keeping my fingers crossed this squad gets to run at states as I feel they really deserve it, but I’d also really like to see them take one more shot at the SQS. As things currently stand, I think they would have a shot at getting in as a 13^th team to states, but if anybody jumps them, the PTFCA won’t let people in without the SQG in all likelihood.

Overall, the DMR suddenly looks incredibly formidable. That’s crazy considering I’ve been hyping up the 4x8 so much more. Last year 10:48 got you into the state meet for this event, but this time around it looks like it will take perhaps as much as 4 seconds faster to punch a ticket!