Alex Fox, Caleb Gatchell, Sean Collins
Another weekend, another series of big track meets. Despite the reputation indoor track has for being the “off” season of competitive running, this indoor season has seen a good amount of excitement and fast times. This weekend will be no exception, with meets at Iowa State, Washington, Boston, and others. With all these meets, what should you be watching? Here’s our take:
***editor’s note: analysis from Fox is plain text, Caleb in bold, Sean in italics
Why the 3K at Iowa State is a Must Watch
There are two names to watch in this race: Futsum Zeinasellassie and Sean McGorty. Sure, there are other big names in the race, including Morgan McDonald and possibly Justyn Knight (obviously if Knight is in this race, watch him, but at this point it appears he’ll run at BU). While there is a fair amount of talent in this race, the implications of McGorty and Futsum squaring off are huge. McGorty is coming off a dominant XC season and a stellar 3:55 split at Penn St; after red-shirting during cross country, Futsum appears to be in better shape than ever, running a mile PR at altitude that converts to 3:56. So, what will this primetime showdown illustrate to us? In my opinion, whoever comes out of this race on top will be first in the line in an attempt to take down King Ches.
Futsum Zeinasellassie is obviously a talented runner. He has been since he began running in college. However, despite some incredible performances in cross country, he has never had the same level of success on the track. This season is different. After taking off this cross country season (NAU had a weak team, and will use Futsum next year as they look to rebuild), he has come out and ran 13:44 and 4:05 at altitude. He’s coming back, and with vengeance. Futsum has long been the biggest threat to Ches on grass, but what about on the track? Prior to this season, I didn’t think Futsum had it in his locker, but these times clearly show that something clicked with him. Given Futsum’spure distance chops and his new found speed (evident through his mile PR), he appears ready to turn the chapter on the track. However, in his way this weekend stands Sean McGorty. It’s been a pretty banner year for McGorty, who stepped up during XC to lead a talented Stanford team with a 7th place finish at Nationals. To open his track season, McGorty proved that his finishes during cross were no joke, splitting a 3:55 to help the Cardinal run one of the fastest times in NCAA history for the DMR. What was impressive about this run is how much work McGorty did on his leg. He grinded in the lead for most of the race, and despite this heroic effort, very nearly pulled off an epic comeback, finishing just a step back of Brandon Kidder. McGorty has the rare trifecta of speed, strength, and guts. This is the ideal build for a 3k runner. If the pace is quick, McGorty has the chops to stay with a lead pack and find an extra gear at the end. If the pace is slow, McGorty has some serious wheels that can win a distance race that comes down to a sprint. These two runners are some of the best talents currently in the NCAA, and seeing them battle will surely be a preview of what’s to come at NCAA. Although there is no lack of other talent in the NCAA among distance runners, including the likes of Pat Tiernan and Justyn Knight, both Futsum and McGorty are in form and will look to ride their momentum all the way to the finish. These are two of the best talents across the board in the NCAA, and both are in monster shape. While this race may not have the depth of the others this weekend, the battle between McGorty and Futsum will be one for the ages.
Making the Case for the UW Mile
Let’s say you have a busy weekend staring you in the face right now. Homework’s piling up, projects are due, and you’re feeling swamped. You’re probably feeling pretty stressed not only because of all the work you have to do, but because you know it’s a huge weekend on the track as well. Crazy fast races will be going down at Boston, Iowa State, and UW, but you only have time to watch one race. Which race do you pick? That’s where I come in. I’m here to solve your problems and tell you why you should be watching the mile at UW, although, you should really watch the fastest two heats so you could argue it’s technically two races. Either way, semantics aside, here’s what makes that such a great race.
First of all, let’s look at the names. We’ve got former Kentucky standout Matt Hillenbrand, Cas Loxsom, Nick Hartle, Mike Tate, Matt Dorsey, and that’s just the second fastest heat. For the most part, these guys aren’t huge mile names admittedly. Hillenbrand would be the most notable exception to that rule. But, the talent on the track is undeniable. Cas Loxsom is one of the brightest 800 stars the U.S. can boast, and Nick Hartle has an impressive 1:47.51 on his resume. Any time an 800 guy moves up to the mile it’s anything but a sure thing. That extra 809 is tough, and I’m speaking from experience on this one. However, sometimes we see really special races, like Clayton Murphy running 3:57 last weekend. So, if for no other reason, watch the second fastest heat for the potential that’s there. At the very least, the last 400 will probably be blazing fast.
Being completely honest, the fast heat is where the action’s at. We’ve got reigning D1 1500 champion Chad Noelle, rising star Will Kincaid from Portland, a potential huge talent in Jonah Koech, and reigning D2 1500/Mile champion Oliver Aitchinson from Adams State. And oh yeah, there’s also some guy named Jacob Burcham, Blake Theroux, Sam Prakel, and if you like dark horses we have PA’s own Ryan Gil and David Elliot. That’s a loaded field. Remember last year when Soratos ran 3:55 here to prove he was legit? Here’s a bold prediction for you: At least 2 people will run faster than he did last year. Kincaid has set the NCAA on fire this year running completely unafraid and closing in ridiculous fashion each time. Chad Noelle wins races, it’s what he does. He ran 3:38 outdoors last year, and he won’t be afraid to run fast here if that’s what it takes to win. And Oliver Aitchinson? Nobody knows who he is, but they just might after this weekend. He won Stanford outdoors last year and came back to place 7th at Payton Jordan. I think he’s as good as anyone out there, and I expect he’ll mix it up at the front. If there’s a race to watch this weekend, it’s the mile at UW. It’s gonna be the fastest mile of the year with a slew of guys eager to break under 4 for the first time, and another group looking to establish themselves as the best in the NCAA. And if you only care about the PA scene, watch the race because Ryan Gil is going to break 4, and you wouldn’t want to miss that.
The Lowdown on the PA Showdown
While most people are probably looking West to UW Husky Invite and to the US Marathon Trials, my choice for this week’s race of the week is happening at the new Ocean Breeze Facility in Staten Island. This meet seems to be hiding the official entries sheet, but rumor has it that there will be some fast times flying. With a combination of pros and collegians and a blazing fast surface, expect nothing short of spectacular. In my opinion, the biggest race of the day will be the Men’s DMR featuring some big guns for all the major teams.
Again, there have been no official entry lists posted, but I can guarantee that there will be a repeat battle from Mid-Atlantic XC as both Penn and Villanova are entering. Tommy Awad has a 4:06 to his name this year at the Wesley Brown Invitational, but always kicks it into gear coming into championship type meets. He has an indoor PR of 4:00.20 and a 3:58 from Penn Relays outdoors. Backing up Awad is Chris Hatler who has broken out as the top miler in the Ivy League currently (and Ocean Breeze Facility Record Holder) with a 4:03 negative split from last week. With Awad having not raced as much recently, who knows who will take the 12/16 legs, but it’s tough to give up on Awadon anchor after some phenomenal 4xMile Penn Relay splits and his absolute dominance at HEPS over the last two years. Rounding out the Penn squad is likely to be Jeff Wiseman and Elias Graca (both PA alum). Wiseman has run in the mid-48s multiple times this season at 400 and Graca has joined a phenomenal group of 800m freshmen who have dropped into the 1:52s and below.
Penn’s major competition is the Villanova Wildcats. In fact, Villanova is easily the favorite. Villanova had the best top 3 of any team in the Mid-Atlantic in XC, but just couldn’t pull it together at 4-5 to make nationals. Now, they can utilize that strong top 3 at 12/16 (maybe even 800????) to try to make nationals. Both Jordy Williamsz and Robert Denault have sub-8 3ks under their belt this year from Penn State National and unless Patrick Tiernan decides to jump on the track, expect Williamsz and Denault to be the 12/16 respectively (especially since they have individual type qualifying marks at the moment). Villanova has tons of options for 800 legs as well with Elliot Slade running 1:49.9 last week and at least 3 others sub 1:52 should Slade be trying to drop time in an earlier running event. The 400 leg should probably be Ville Lampinen who ran 49.3 last week in the 400.
Other than these two teams, we don’t know who will be attempting to join the indoor qualifiers, however Penn State is scheduled to bring a team as well as Virginia, Columbia, Cornell and Princeton. Penn State is the current national leader in the event, so it is unlikely that we will see another attempt here, but that team might be looking for the national record and this meet might be a time to try. Columbia currently sits at 15thin the nation, a spot that will not stay past this weekend at their current 9:43, so a race here could make lots of sense. Virginia might be looking to run fast prior to Nationals and ACCs and with Henry Wynne having dropped a 3:58 already this season, if he gets the baton with a chance he could try to run away with the title. Cornell also has a 4:03 leg to throw on anchor with Mark Tedder and above average legs at the other position. All of these teams could break 9:40.
There is also the possibility of a pro team running at this meet. While you never know what this means, any grouping of major professional runners might drop a really fast time and pull the collegians to sub9:30 or even faster. Not knowing who might be competing we won’t assume there is a team, but if the occasion arises, it only makes this race even faster.
Prediction: We will only predict who we know if racing, but expect many sub 9:40 times regardless of who enters.
Villanova: 9:31.70
Penn 9:34.02
No comments:
Post a Comment