Which meet will be better? What constitutes better in your opinion?
Who is going to win each meet? Which teams? Which individuals?
What are your story lines going into this meet? Who has something to prove? Who will have a breakout race?
What do you think of the new Hershey course?
Pick some or all or none (which would be tricky) and let us know your thoughts!
For help, here's a Hershey Performance List
And here's milesplit's entered teams list for Carlisle
I think the two meets are very hard to compare, seeing that they test the strengths of two completely different aspects of runners. Carlisle opens the door to see runners rip off a fast time as we approach the postseason, while Foundation introduces many to the grueling difficulty of the states course.
ReplyDeleteFoundation:
I'm really excited to see how this new course runs. A little bummed we won't see if Affolder breaks Brophy's course record, but whatever. I think the individual race is pretty wide open, which I love. No Galligan, which opens up the door for James to get his first win of the year. Conway has yet to truly be challenged, so he'll surely be towards the front. A big sleeper for me here is Matt D'Aquila from Lower Merion. He was 15:50's last year, with a 9 flat 3k. I expect him to be up with the big guys in his debut. I think Feffer should hang with these top guys too. Rounding out the top 5 (which I happen to see as the top tier) is Mcmenamin. I think the next tier is led by guys like the Addison, O'Toole, Inglis, P. James, Endres, Delisle, Smith, and Diallo. Big pack of guys fighting for that top 10. I think NA really gets exposed for not having a low stick, and they're far off the win. I'll say O'hara repeats. The big names in A and AA are Forsythe, Davis, Zardecki, Brown, and Gabig.
AAA:
1. O'Hara
2. Lasalle
3. Central Bucks East
4. North Allegheny
5. Springford
1. Conway
2. James
3. Mcmenamin
4. Feffer
5. D'aquila
AA:
1. Dallas
2. Holy Ghost
3. Grove City
4. Greensburg Salem
5. York Suburban
1. Davis
2. Powell
3. Brown
4. Pfiel
5. Zardecki
A:
1. Winchester Thurston
2. Southern Columbia Area
3. Penns Valley Area
1. Forsythe
2. Gabig
3. Knoebel
4. Healey
5. Littmann
CBE over NA? I see where you are going, assuming you think David Endres is a low stick (which he is). However, NA's pack is better than CBE's, and Endres won't be too far ahead.
DeleteCarlisle:
ReplyDelete-I won't bother talking about all the great out of state competition, but there certainly is a chance that a PA team may not win this invite. I think Affolder should hit the course record, I'll say 15:07. The front of this field is LOADED. I really hope Smucker is back for this race, because that will make a killer top 5 of PA runners at the front of this race. I'll say Carlisle takes the top PA spot, but they better watch out, because quickly growing threat Lower Dauphin is going to be here as well. I'll be interested to see if Dwest can hang with the top teams in the state in their first real test of the season.
**PA Only**
1. Carlisle
2. Lower Dauphin
3. Downingtown West
4. Cumberland Valley
5. Mechanicsburg
1. N. Affolder
2. Hoey
3. Henderson
4. S. Affolder
5. Shea
6. Smucker
7. Cupp
8. Bullock
9. Giannascoli
10. Cassel
I see a bunch of DTW and CV kids coming in right after these top 10
Foundation: Predicted team finish (PA states only)
ReplyDelete1. LaSalle
2. COH
3. Springford
4. NA
5. SC
6. CBE
7. Mt Lebanon
8. NP
9. Seneca Valley
10. Boyertown
Remember that Isham is out for SC, so their overall stock as a team severely decreases, unfortunately.
DeleteNo way spring ford beats NA
DeleteI think if someone from NA steps up, then they overtake Springford. So far, I have not seen it so, I've going with the season's performance. Being NA, I certainly think it could happen, but would like to see it first.
DeleteCarlisle Predicted Team Finished
ReplyDelete1. Carlisle
2. Downingtown West
3. Cumberland Valley
4. Lower Dauphin
5. Mechanicsburg
6. WCH
I will really be interested to find out opinions on the new state course after Saturday. Looks like you might be able to view alot of the last mile.
ReplyDeleteBe on the lookout for the Clarion tent at Foundation! It's always a tough one to spot.
ReplyDeleteWhere is Avon Grove racing? Interested to see them break into the top 5 in PA team rankings.
ReplyDeletePlease tell me your kidding.
DeleteWord in certain circles is they're training through this weekend and focusing on Paul Short. It makes sense to start your big meet peak in early October.
DeleteOH for the win at Foundation. DTW showed last year what a strong top 3 means, it's almost impossible to beat three low sticks in a big race.
ReplyDeleteTough question there Etrain with who has something to prove. On the individual side it's a valid question but potentially controversial. A lot of runners want to make a statement and get on the PA scene. And there's plenty of sleeper picks. But as strange as it is, a guy like Hoey may be the one with the most motivation to prove something.
ReplyDeleteComing off his soph. season he was the #1 pa XC returner so in theory would have nothing to prove. Then a penn relays mile champ with a 4:11 PR only put him that much further ahead of the field. Yet he was suddenly upstaged by the Affolders from NY transferring to PA and his own transfer from a top program to one much different from all that was accomplished last year. So the guy most figured to be the favorite for champ this year now is facing a new landscape on the individual side. I mean, it's not that big a deal, he's still gonna run some outstanding times and probably be in the mix of the best PA has ever produced. But he did go from favorite for XC state gold to underdog in a real short span. So this Carlisle race could be really interesting.
Agreed. Hoey has already done so much to establish himself as an elite runner, but with so many moving parts this off-season, we still don't know exactly how he will match up.
DeleteCumberland Valley looked great in a dual meet this week, Feffer took the win, but we saw CV put their top 3 in front of Owen Isham and another 3 in front of SC's #3. No Etter or young Feffer racing, which might confirm the injury reports a few posts ago about Etter, which is a real shame. That being said, Cumberland Valley is continuing to look like a strong team with that front pack.
ReplyDeletehttp://pa.milesplit.com/meets/247391/results/470099/raw#.V-PQbVdYmCQ
CBW beat CBE handily in a dual meet... That changes things...
ReplyDeleteSadly dual meets don't mean anything, CBE probably rested their top guys
DeleteI was wondering what happened to CBW (I had them ranked in my top 10 the pre-season and 1week but had them off since). It appears that they are starting to turn the corner. I heard Mass was coming off an injury and is just starting to hit his stride.
DeleteThe results are on milesplit and CBE didn't rest anyone
DeleteI doubt that many CBW and CBE dual meets are taken lightly. I'm pretty sure that's a very big and important rivalry. Probably pretty close to NA vs Mnt Leb or DEast vs DWest (and that's just for sports in general). The Ches-Mont meets may be taken lightly but I feel like SOL's is a bit different.
DeleteAnd while the dual meet does show that CBW can beat CBE, I would see how the bigger meets go. Large and deeper fields have a dramatic effect on how on the scores tally up. Think back to 2013 when WCE had that dominant top three and was running up the score on everyone, but struggled at districts because there was too big of a gap at their fourth and fifth man spot. I'm not ready to give CBW the nod over CBE just yet, but it is a great sign for them.
DEast vs. Dwest is meaningless. But your point on 2013 WCE is valid. That's why a team like Avon Grove is racking up the wins without running up the score.
DeleteI realize that this comment will be very unpopular to most of you but I think that Carlisle is overrated. Sure they have the Affolders, but they lack depth after that. I believe that they can be beaten by a team with a shorter spread like North Allegheny or Spring Ford. Also, why isn't Taylor Alderice in the top ten? They have more guys under 17:00 than Carlisle and NA combined, but lack a solid number 5 guy. (NA has 0 and Carlisle has 3 so far. Alderdice has 4)
ReplyDeleteThe problem with Allderdice is that their dropoff from 4 to 5 is significant. They've also lost head to head to Lebo and Seneca Valley, who are both right on the top 10 bubble. Still, I think Allderdice has been the feel-good team of the year out west so far. It's nice to see a District 8 squad compete with some of the big boys. Good for them.
DeleteRandom tidbit: Allderdice is where Wiz Khalifa went to high school. Now you know.
No comparison on the individual side of these two meets. Foundation winner would have a hard time cracking the top ten at Carlisle. Temwise Foundation has some interesting "pack" teams though.
ReplyDeleteYou are correct about Foundation being stronger in teams and weaker in individuals, but I disagree with your statement about the top ten. One or two of these guys will be in the top 10 come states.
DeleteProbably, but I guess I was considering out of state guys too. (Hengst, Rosas, Vs guy).
Delete