PA HS XC Top 50: Week Three

You kids know the drill.

Honorable Mention: Stephen Paul (LaSalle, Foundation), Cole Sunderland (Manheim Central, Carlisle), Evan Addison (LaSalle, Foundation), Peter Borger (Malvern Prep), Owen Ritz (Germantown Academy)

Some other guys who have been hovering around the list will also be participating in one of the big two meets this weekend. Here’s a quick recap of who is supposed to be where:

Foundation

Amadou Diallo, Allerdice

David Endres, CB East

Gabe Sullivan, Pleasant Valley

Ben Littman, Winchester Thurston

Jacob McKenna, Spring Ford

Ryan Thrush, Brookville

Carlisle

Austin Maxwell, Kennett

Ryan Barton, DT West

Yahja Soliman, Cumberland Valley

Josh Higgins, Cumberland Valley

Jesse Cruise, Cedar Crest

Also worth noting, if it looks like guys might be injured, I’m going to start pulling them off the list. Seems like a bit of unfair pressure to put on kids just trying to get out there and recover for championship season. So after this week, we could see a couple more guys get dropped off depending on health.

So with all that in mind, here’s my most updated top 50. I’m not really feeling confident about this one the same way I did about last week’s. Just not as natural of a feel to it. This weekend should sort a lot of things out though.

50. Ryan Campbell, Jr CR North (1 AAA) – CRN Invite

49. Shaun Bullock, Sr DT West (1 AAA) – Carlisle

48. Avery Lederer, Jr Penncrest (1 AAA) – Penncrest Invite

47. Patrick James, Sr O’Hara (12 AAA) – Foundation

46. Hunter Crawley, Sr South Williamsport (4 A)

45. Jack Zardecki, Jr Dallas (2 AA) – Foundation

44. Michael Geiger, Sr Parkland (11 AAA)

43. Ian Gabig, Sr Camp Hill (3 A) – Foundation

Gabig makes a big debut on the list after an impressive win at Big Spring. His time of 16:44 would have landed him in the top 15 of the AAA race (and it was faster than all the AA racers who were in his same race). He now has the chance to make some real noise at foundation, where many of the top A guys will be located.

42. Donovan Myers, Sr Seneca (10 A) - Sharpsville

41. Matt D’Aquila, Sr Lower Merion (1 AAA) – Foundation

40. Patrick Jacobson, Sr Dallastown (3 AAA)

The 6^th place finisher from the Big Spring Invite makes his debut on the list at the #40 spot. He qualified for states in the 1600m this past spring, showing big improvements on the track. Having already been a strong XC guy, it’s nice to see that extra speed is already paying dividends on the grass.

39. Joe Cullen, Jr Wyomssing (3 AA) – Foundation

38. Brandon Hontz, Sr WC Rustin (1 AAA)

37. Bryan Keller, Sr CR North (1 AAA) – CRN Invite

36. Evan Hutton, Sr William Tennent (1 AAA) – CRN Invite

Hutton has been very impressive to start the 2016 season. He barely slipped into the state championship qualifying last year out of District One, but this fall he’s turned it up a notch. He took 5^th at one of the weekend’s most competitive invites and beat some top names on this list, including Keller of CRN (who finished in the top 12 at his meet for the second straight weekend). These two get a chance for a rematch this weekend.

35. Gavin Inglis, Sr O’Hara (12 AAA) – Foundation

After a big weekend, O’Hara now has three guys on the top 50 list with Patrick James (#47) and Gavin Inglis (#35). Considering the two were separated by just 3 seconds in this weekend’s invite, there probably shouldn’t be a whole 12 spots between them. However, I wasn’t sure exactly where the pair should go and felt 47 would be the low end and 35 would be the high end so I slotted one at each (sorry PJ). After Foundation this weekend, we will see if these guys are deserving of a top 40 spot. There was a 24 second gap between Inglis (who placed 4^th at Briarwood) and 3^rd place finisher Rusty Kujdych last weekend and just a 21 second gap between Inglis and 12^th place finisher Evan Addison.

34. Mark Brown, So Greensburg Salem (7 AA) – Foundation

33. Jonah Powell, So Grove City (10 AA) – Foundation

32. Colton Cassell, Sr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA) – Carlisle

31. Isaac Kole, Sr Carlisle (3 AAA) – Carlisle

30. Alex Tomasko, Sr Mechanicsburg (3 AAA) – Carlisle

29. James Abrahams, Sr Haverford (1 AAA)

Abrahams ran away with the Division I title at Briarwood and, despite a fast early pace and little completion, managed to hold on for a sub 17. I was pretty impressed with his past two races (he gave Galligan a solid challenge at Abington as well) and look forward to his next race (maybe Paul Short?).

28. Casey Conboy, Sr Baldwin (7 AAA)

27. Aaron Pfeil, Sr South Fayette (7 AA) – Foundation

26. Jared Giannascoli, Jr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA) – Carlisle

Although O’Hara made big moves in the team and individual rankings this weekend, it was the boys from Lower Dauphin who ended up making the biggest surge. Jared Giannascoli and Colton Cassell now own the 26^th and 32^nd spots on this list and, like the O’Hara duo of Inglis and James, I decided to slot these two on the high end and low end of their potential ranking. Just 2 seconds separated these two teammates who took 4^th and 5^th at the Big Spring Invite behind three very, very strong runners. Giannascoli was just outside the top 50 at AAA states last season as a sophomore.

25. Eric Kennedy, Sr Kiski Area (7 AAA) – Carlisle

24. Connor Walsh, Sr Cambridge Springs (10 A) – Sharpsville

23. Noah Curtin, Sr Mercyhurst Prep (10 A)

22. Morgan Cupp, Jr Mechanicsburg (3 AAA) – Carlisle

21. Tristan Forsythe, Jr Winchester Thurston (7 A) – Foundation

Forsythe ran a quick 16:03 this past weekend out of state at a course I didn’t easily recognize (so who knows if it runs fast or slow), but it’s clear that he is in great shape and is racing sharp. I think he’s taken over as the surprising favorite headed into the Foundation Invite where he gets a shot to take down defending A state champ Griffin Mackey of rival Sewickley Academy.

20. Seth Slavin, Sr Pleasant Valley (11 AAA) – Foundation

19. Griffin Mackey, Sr Sewickley Academy (7 A) – Foundation

18. Spencer Smucker, Jr West Chester Henderson (1 AAA) – Carlisle

17. Isaac Davis, Jr Jersey Shore (4 AA) – Foundation

16. Ben Bumgarner, Sr Waynesburg Central (7 AA)

15. Mark Provenzo, Sr Franklin Regional (7 AAA) – Sharpsville

Ben Bumgarner made a huge move up the rankings this week as he was the biggest mover of anyone featured on the top 50 last week (he jumped 17 spots). Ben won his section of the Boardman Invitational and ran the fastest time of any PA runner in the process. Considering one of those runners was Mark Provenzo (second at RWB) that is a pretty impressive feat. I’m looking forward to his next head to head battle with the WPIALs elite and it should be fun to watch the D7 AA kids battle it out. That district is absolutely loaded in the small school classifications. The strength of AAA will be largely determined this weekend with Sharpsville and Foundation projected to play host to many top dogs.

14. Connor McMenamin, Sr Souderton (1 AAA) – Foundation

13. Nick Feffer, Sr State College (6 AAA) – Foundation

12. Kyler Shea, Sr Lower Dauphin (3 AAA) – Carlisle

Shea made a convincing debut with his first ever sub 16 at Big Spring. Shea has been a top 25 type on this list for practically two years running and has finished in the top 40 at states the past two years. However, his 15:58 at Big Spring was overshadowed by huge times from Lefever and Henderson meaning that Shea, even at #12, is just the 5^th District 3 guy on the list. He has a chance to change that at the Carlisle Invite this coming weekend, where he excelled last year with a sub 16 mark.

11. Rusty Kujdych, Jr Neshaminy (1 AAA) – CRN Invite

10. Ryan James, Sr O’Hara (12 AAA) – Foundation

These two battled head to head at Briarwood this weekend with James picking up the silver and Rusty the bronze. Both have similar running styles with fearless front running and should be a fun pair to watch throughout the season. I personally think RJ has a chance to be really good this year and wouldn’t be surprised if he wins the Foundation Invite this coming weekend. He’s not the favorite, but he runs that Hershey course very well and should be a little hungrier for victory after his silver this past weekend.

9. Liam Conway, Jr Owen J Roberts (1 AAA) – Foundation

Conway had a very impressive victory this past weekend, running away with the championship at the Harrier Invitational. Foundation will be his first chance to race a 5k against some top 20 talents (including a rematch with Connor McMenamin who he defeated last weekend over a shorter distance) and a very good chance to prove his ability on the hills. I think Liam is the favorite for the win at Hershey this coming weekend and a gold would be the first win by a junior at this meet in a while (Matt Kacyon in 2009 may have been the last one to do it?).

8. Zach Skolnekovich, Sr Quaker Valley (7 AAA) – Sharpsville

7. Liam Galligan, Sr Springfield (DELCO) (1 AAA)

At one of the biggest meets of the weekend, Galligan picked up the win, dropping two other top 10 type talents at the end of the Briarwood championship meet. He has a lot of confidence in his ability to finish fast, but also don’t sleep on the fact that he’s a monster on hills historically. What I like the most thus far is Liam’s consistency in the early season.

6. Zach Lefever, Sr Ephrata (3 AAA)

This guy is a beast. Running 15:40s at Big Spring is no joke. And don’t forget he was terrific on the track this past season, picking up a state medal as a junior in the 3200 (which is very difficult) ahead of Jake Brophy and Nate Henderson. I think he’s been overshadowed by Henderson (and now the Affolders), but this kid is extremely talented and, on the right day, has proven he can beat the absolute best in our state.

5. Nick Dahl, Sr GFS (Independent)

Dahl ran a terrific 15:23 this past weekend to run away from an impressive field. At first, I kinda assumed it was a quicker course and slept on it, but when I looked back, I saw this mark was way ahead of what Nick did on the same day last year (and well ahead of anybody in the course’s recent history). Nick said he’s racing Paul Short in two weeks which means he will go up against at least Liam Galligan, but also perhaps Liam Conway, Zach Lefever and more. Then, I assume GFS will be back at Manhattan. Those two races will tell me if Dahl has taken the steps to translate his track excellence to the grass. Based on that 15:23, he probably should have been #4, but hey, that would have ruined the next sentence I’m about to type.

4. Sam Affolder, So Carlisle (3 AAA) – Carlisle

3. Josh Hoey, Jr Bishop Shanahan (1 AAA) – Carlisle

2. Nathan Henderson, Sr JP McCaskey (3 AAA) – Carlisle

1. Noah Affolder, Sr Carlisle (3 AAA) - Carlisle

The top 4 individuals on this list will do battle this weekend! It’s going to be amazing and I think it’s going to be incredibly fast. Kyle Dawson ran 15:17 on this course in 2006. He finished 3^rd in the state, but ran sub 15 at Lehigh and was the #1 runner on a national championship squad. Brad Miles ran 15:20 there in 2009 and went on to become state and regional champion. Those are the times that these top runners are chasing in 2016.

Noah Affolder will go in as the favorite and has a great chance to pass the fastest time from the 201x decade (Zach Brehm’s 15:23). But I’m most interested in the 3 guys behind him. Nate looked terrific at Big Spring and absolutely crushed a tough course with big competition. 15:29 on that lay out is absurd to me. I’d love to see him just go to the front with a mile to go and hammer away at the pace to see what everyone else has got. He’s in monster shape and is about 20 seconds faster at Big Spring than he was last year at this time (when he ran 15:41 at Carlisle).

Just ahead of him last year at this invite was Josh Hoey, who clocked a 15:40 as a sophomore on the course (no soph from PA has run under 15:50 at this meet in the past decade). He’s at a new school with something to prove (there was a great comment regarding this) and it should be fun to see how he stacks up against his main competition for states.

Sam Affolder is an intriguing name as well. As just a sophomore, he has a chance to surpass Hoey’s class record and perhaps jump into the 15:30s on this course, a time zone that just 12 PA athletes have entered in the past decade. He also has a chance to produce a 1-2 finish alongside his brother, the first such finish since twins Craig Miller and Brad Miller in 2005 (15:22-15:26, they also went 1-2 in 2004 and they went 2-4 as freshmen! The Millers were good). The Hoeys (as a senior and a sophomore) finished 1-4 in this meet last year, taking the 1^st and 2^nd spots for the state of Pennsylvania.